Monday, November 21, 2022

21: Nepal

०५१ कै संसदको पुनरावृत्ति हुने त होइन? घण्टीमा परेको अप्रत्यासित मतले एकल बहुमत दावी गर्ने एमाले र गठबन्धन सरकार बनाउने कांग्रेसको हिसाब बिग्रन पुगेको छ । यतिमात्रै होइन, यसले आउँदो संसदको भविश्यमाथि पनि सोच्न बाध्य बनाउँछ । ........ सोमबार साँझसम्म गणना चलिरहेको सय निर्वाचन क्षेत्रको प्रारम्भिक रुझानले नयाँ राजनीतिक समीकरणबारे संकेत दिन थालेको छ । ...... आगामी संसदमा नयाँ राजनीतिक शक्तिका रुपमा रवि लामिछाने नेतृत्वको राष्ट्रिय स्वतन्त्र पार्टी (रास्वपा) को महत्वपूर्ण उपस्थिति हुनेछ । ......... त्यो भनेको कुनैपनि दलले आफनो गठबन्धन समेतबाट बहुमत ल्याउने संभावना न्यून हुदै जानु हो । ........ साझा उम्मेदवारी दिने क्रममै सत्तारुढ गठबन्धनमा आवद्ध कुनैपनि दलले एकल बहुमत नल्याउने प्रष्ट थियो । ........ नेकपा माओवादी केन्द्र, नेकपा एकीकृत समाजवादी र लोकतान्त्रिक समाजवादी पार्टीको प्रारम्भिक नतिजा निराशाजनक छ । ....... हुनत राप्रपाले अग्रता लिएको ५ सिट ठूलो संख्या होइन । तर, गणतन्त्र स्थापनापछि कुनैपनि चुनावमा राजावादी पार्टी राप्रपाले यस्तो सफलता पाएको थिएन । ......... यो चुनाव हुँदै गर्दाको पृष्ठभूमि पनि ०५१ सँग मेल खान्छ । ०४८ को चुनावबाट पाएको बहुमतलाई कांग्रेसले पार्टीभित्रको आन्तरिक कलहका कारणले जोगाउन सकेन । ....... त्यो मध्यावधिबाट ८८ सिट सहित पहिलो दल बनेको एमालेले सरकार निर्माण गर्न पुग्ने संख्या जित्न सकेन । २०५ सदस्यीय प्रतिनिधिसभामा सरकार बनाउन १०३ सिट आवश्यक पथ्र्यो । ८३ सिटसहित दोस्रो बनेको कांग्रेस एक्लैले सरकार बनाउने कुरै भएन । ...... २०४६ सालमा बहुदल आएपछि पूर्वपञ्चहरुले गठन गरेको राप्रपाले २० सिट ल्याउँदा ‘हङ पार्लियामेन्ट’ बन्न पुगेको थियो । ....... त्यसबेला पनि सात जनाले स्वतन्त्र, नेपाल मजदुर किसान पार्टीबाट चार र नेपाल सद्भावना पार्टीबाट तीन जनाले चुनाव जितेका थिए । तर यी सान दलहरु भन्दा तुलनात्मक ठूलो राप्रपाले जसलाई साथ दिन्छ, त्यही दल बहुमतमा पुग्ने अवस्था थियो । ........ चुनावपछि मनमोहन अधिकारीको नेतृत्वमा एमालेले अल्पमतको एकल सरकार बनाएपनि नौ महिना मात्रै टिक्यो । संसदमा बहुमत सिद्ध गर्नुपर्ने अवस्था आउनासाथ अधिकारीले प्रधानमन्त्रीको हैसियतमा प्रतिनिधिसभा विघटन गरे । ........ यो चुनावले पनि २८ वर्ष अगाडिकै जस्तो नतिजा दिने संकेत देखिन्छ । ...... नयाँ संसदले मुलुकलाई राजनीतिक स्थीरता दिन नसक्ने सम्भावना धेरै छ । ..... संसदमा सरकार बन्न सक्ने अवस्था रहेसम्म प्रतिनिधिसभा विघटन गर्न नपाइने, थ्रेसहोल्ड, पहिलोपटक प्रधानमन्त्री बनेको दुई वर्षसम्म अविश्वासको प्रस्ताव लैजान नपाइने व्यवस्था संविधानमा लेखिनुमा राजनीतिक स्थीरता नै मुख्य उद्देश्य हो । .

राजनीतिमा ‘ज्येष्ठ नागरिक’को हालीमुहाली
दबाबमा मूलधारका दल सोमबार मध्यरातिसम्म मतगणना भइरहेका प्रत्यक्षतर्फका एक सय सिटमा स्वतन्त्र पार्टीले नौ स्थानमा अग्रता लिएको छ भने समानुपातिकमा कांग्रेस र एमालेपछि तेस्रो स्थानमा छ । प्रतिनिधिसभाका १६५ निर्वाचन क्षेत्रमध्ये १३१ स्थानमा स्वतन्त्र पार्टीले उम्मेदवारी दिएको थियो । ....... प्राप्त मत र जित्ने सिटका आधारमा स्वतन्त्र पार्टी भव्य पार्टी बन्ने सम्भावना छैन । तर, उसको उपस्थितिले अब कांग्रेस, माओवादी, एकीकृत समाजवादीको गठबन्धन पनि अपूरो हुनेछ । त्यस्तै एमाले, माओवादी, एकीकृत समाजवादी मिले पनि समीकरण पूरा हुन झन् गाह्रो हुनेछ । यस्तो अवस्थामा स्वतन्त्र पार्टीको अडान अर्थपूर्ण हुने सम्भावना छ । त्यस्तै सीके राउत नेतृत्वको जनमत, रेशम चौधरी नेतृत्वको उन्मुक्ति पार्टीले पनि संसद्मा प्रतिनिधि पठाउने र राजेन्द्र लिङ्देन नेतृत्वको राप्रपाले बढाउने सम्भावना छ । ....... ‘लामो समय शासन गर्दै आएका राजनीतिक दलहरू जति पखाले पनि रङ नबदल्ने अफ्रिकाका जेब्राजस्ता भए । ........ पाँच वर्षअघिको आमनिर्वाचनमा प्रत्यक्षमा २३ सिट मात्र जितेको कांग्रेस पाँचदलीय गठबन्धन गरेर सबैभन्दा बढी लाभ लिने पार्टी हुने भएको छ । प्रारम्भिक परिणामले गठबन्धनमा रहेका माओवादी, एकीकृत समाजवादी र लोकतान्त्रिक समाजवादी खुम्चिने देखिएको छ । पार्टीप्रति आस्था राख्ने मतदाताले मत ‘ट्रान्सफर’ गर्ने शीर्ष नेतृत्वको निर्देशन अवज्ञा गर्नाले कांग्रेसबाहेकका गठबन्धन दललाई जित्न मुस्किल परेको हो । ....... २०५२ मा सशस्त्र संघर्ष सुरु गरेर २०६३ मा शान्ति प्रक्रियामा आएको माओवादीलाई डेढ दशकमै अस्तित्व जोगाउन हम्मे पर्दै गएको छ । ...... एमालेबाट विभाजन भई एक वर्षअघि गठन भएको एकीकृत समाजवादीलाई गठबन्धन गर्दा राष्ट्रिय पार्टी बन्न मुस्किल पर्ने देखिएको छ । ....... विश्लेषक पुरञ्जन आचार्यले पार्टी युवा पुस्ताको नेतृत्वमा जानुपर्ने अभिमत चुनावमा व्यक्त भएको टिप्पणी गरे । ‘राष्ट्रिय राजनीतिमा एउटा नयाँ पार्टीको उदय हुन खोजिरहेको छ । नेपालको राजनीतिमा युवाले जबर्जस्त हस्तक्षेप गरेर कम्पन पैदा गरेका छन्,’ उनले भने, ‘यसले युवाको पार्टी बनाउन कांग्रेसलाई सुधार गर्न ठूलो दबाब पर्छ । एमालेभित्र पनि केपी ओलीजीको अहंकार झन्डै–झन्डै समाप्त हुँदै छ । युवाले यसपटक जबर्जस्त प्रभाव देखाएका छन् ।’

कांग्रेस–एमाले नै मुख्य प्रतिस्पर्धी बरू ५ महिनाअघि स्थापना भएको राष्ट्रिय स्वतन्त्र पार्टीको चामत्कारिक उदयले परम्परागत दललाई झस्काएको छ ....... यसपटकको निर्वाचनको प्रारम्भिक परिणाम हेर्दा कांग्रेस र एमाले पहिलो र दोस्रो ठूलो दल हुने करिब निश्चितजस्तै देखिन्छ । बरु ५ महिनाअघि स्थापना भएको रवि लामिछाने नेतृत्वको राष्ट्रिय स्वतन्त्र पार्टी (रास्वपा) को चामत्कारिक उदयले कांग्रेस र एमालेजस्ता परम्परागत दललाई झस्काएको छ । माओवादी, एकीकृत समाजवादीलगायत दललाई संकटको घण्टी बजाएको छ ।

बाबुराम र रवीन्द्रले वैकल्पिक धार बिगार्दा रवि उदाए
गगनले प्रधानमन्त्री पदको बाजा बजाएर हिँडिरहन आवश्यक छैन

5 of my all-time favorite books I’m lucky enough to call Bono a friend, but a lot of the stories he tells in Surrender were new to me. ....... I can’t read enough about Abraham Lincoln ....... your state of mind is just as important—if not more important—than your physical fitness. He gives excellent advice about how to move on constructively from mistakes, which I’ve tried to follow both on and off the court over the years. ....... The history of chemistry is filled with quirky characters like Dimitri Mendeleyev, the Russian scientist who first proposed the periodic table after it allegedly came to him in a dream. Strathern’s book traces that history all the way back to its origins in ancient Greece. It’s a fascinating look at how science develops and how human curiosity has evolved over the millennia.



The best memoir by a rock star I actually know I’m lucky to call Bono a friend. But his autobiography still surprised me. ....... I went into this book knowing almost nothing about his anger at his father, the band’s near-breakups, and his discovery that his cousin was actually his half-brother. I didn’t even know that he grew up with a Protestant mom and Catholic dad. .......... “There are only a few routes to making a grandstanding stadium singer out of a small child. You can tell them they’re amazing, that the world needs to hear their voice, that they must not hide their ‘genius under a bushel.’ Or you can just plain ignore them. That might be more effective. The lack of interest of my father, a tenor, in his son’s voice is not easy to explain, but it might have been crucial.” (It also helped that he has, as he later learned from a doctor, freakishly large lung capacity.) ........ His key to survival was embracing the concept of spiritual surrender, as the title of the book suggests. ........ e eventually came to see that he’d never fill his emotional needs by playing for huge crowds or being a global advocate. His faith in a higher power helped him a lot. So did his wife, Ali. He writes that when his mom died during his childhood, his home “stopped being a home; it was just a house.” Ali and their four children gave him a home once again......... Bono writes that his surrender is still incomplete.



The best guide to leading a country There are significant parallels between the current moment and the 1860s, when the nation was dealing with violent insurrection, difficult questions about race, and ideological divides between states and regions. ....... It is amazing for example to read about how Lincoln was able to push the Thirteenth Amendment through a Congress made up exclusively of white men. Although Lincoln does not have a clean record on race—some modern critics in fact label him a racist because of some positions he held—I came away from Team of Rivals more convinced than ever that Lincoln was a profoundly moral man who ranks as America’s greatest president. ......... Lincoln’s private persona was exactly what he conveyed in public. ....... Lincoln called Douglass “one of the most meritorious men in America” and treated him that way, inviting him to the White House to get his advice. Although Douglass had previously criticized Lincoln’s slowness to act on behalf of enslaved people, Goodwin reports that he was impressed by their long meeting. “The president is a most remarkable man,” Douglass told a friend. “I am satisfied now that he is doing all that circumstances will permit him to do.” ............. He was secure enough to pack his Cabinet with the rivals he had defeated in the presidential campaign, and he was able to ignore or absorb their backstabbing. ........ Lincoln was intellectually secure. Despite having a cumulative total of one year of formal schooling and none of the pedigree that his Cabinet members enjoyed, he never had to prove that he was the smartest guy in the room (even though he almost always was)......... Lincoln also controlled his emotions. Because he suffered a lot of loss throughout his life—the death of his mother when he was only 14, the death of two sons, and the carnage he saw on battlefields throughout the war—he was prone to falling into deep melancholy. But his losses fueled his empathy and never left him incapacitated........ Finally, he was great about learning from his mistakes. After the Union Army suffered a humiliating defeat in the first full-scale battle of the Civil War, Lincoln visited with his officers and troops so he could learn first-hand what had gone wrong. Then he stayed up all night “drafting a memo incorporating the painful lessons of Bull Run into a coherent future military policy,” as Goodwin writes....... Whenever I have tried to solve a tough problem, whether it’s in technology or philanthropy, I’ve started by looking for great examples from history. In these turbulent times, Abraham Lincoln is as good a model as you will find.

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