Monday, December 23, 2013

Matters Economic

Federalism is a foregone conclusion. In a country where no ethnic group is more than 20% of the population, Nepal was always destined to have multi-identity states, it was only a question of what you were going to name them, and geographic names might be the most palatable.

And I do believe we are going to get a constitution before 2014 is out. You can accuse the Congressis of nepotism and corruption and inefficiency and ignorance and lack of imagination and a dozen other traits that democracy throws your way because mediocrity is all too pervasive in most aspects of life, but one thing that political party has stood for time and again is basic democracy, the rudiments of rule of law.

I think it is smart of the Maoists to decide not to go into power. When you do that you get to ride the anti-incumbency wave the next time around.

The Madhesi parties are in the most precarious position. When they split like amoeba over the past few years somehow they felt they were going to defy the laws of political gravity. Does not work that way. The Terai is going to end up with two states, which is what the Madhesi parties wanted. The big parties also fielded Madhesi candidates in the Madhesi majority constituencies. So if your identity and your agenda are both co-opted, you have some homework to do.

The Madhesi parties might not unite and become one, and they might not do the ideological homework that would stem from the realization that now after federalism and the constitution the parties that best focus on the economy like a laser beam will perform the best at the polls. The Madhesi parties might fare equally bad the next time around as well.

Friday, December 20, 2013

Roger Adhikari Bahun

I have never formally joined any Nepali organization in America although I have hardly been passive. I was the only full timer among Nepalis in the US to have worked for Nepal 's democracy movement back in 2005-06. I launched ANTA in NYC but never became a member, although I have attended more ANTA events than most.

But I have stayed informed. Sometimes you hear, sometimes you read. And so it has come to my notice that the first Janajati to attain a national leadership position among the Nepalis is under attack by the Bahun brigade and this guy Roger Adhikari has been leading the charge.

I once met the guy. I was sick of all the posturing going on around him by several ANTA leaders, as if ANTA was formed to apologize to and to pay respects to Pahadiyas like this Anglo name Roger. This guy reeked of prejudice. You could just smell it from a distance. And then he opened his mouth and my suspicions were confirmed. And then he said something racist in an online forum and I picked up a fight. The hell with this guy, I said to ANTA members.

He is on record making a case as to why Nepalis in America will not and should not invest in Nepal. This Pahadiya does not even love the Pahad. This guy is a lost cause.

I don't know much about Chhewang Lama 's time in office. But I like the fact that a Sherpa has managed to become president of ANA. That has never happened before.

And now this Roger guy is all over the map trying to scuttle Sherpa's chances. Chhewang Lama is in a public position and thus is open to criticism. But Roger's tone of voice tells me his motivation is racism. This Adhikari guy is prejudiced upto his neck. In short, his opposition to Chhewang is that he is a Sherpa, a Janajati. Shame on Roger.

Saturday, December 07, 2013

Federal Democratic Alliance: Too Little, Too Late

Madhesi Jana Adhikar Forum, Nepal
Madhesi Jana Adhikar Forum, Nepal (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
This Federal Democratic Alliance would have swept the country if it had been formed before the election in a way that there was only one FDA candidate in each of the 240 constituencies. Madhesi leaders in 30 political parties can not do the work of party unification but they want 13 million Madhesis to unite behind their cause? That is laughable. What was the expectation? That 13 million Madhesis will stand behind 30 Madhesi political parties all of whom were competing against each other?

March 2013: How The FDRA Could Bring In Baidya, Yadav, Rai
The FDRA's Options
The State Of Nepali Politics: A Diagram

There has been an obvious wrongdoing in the election mechanism. At least three million voters were kicked off the voter list. As for the elaborate sabotage that the Maoists are accusing of, I don't know. It feels as far fetched as the Nepali Congress claim in 2008 that the YCL basically handed over the election to the Maoists then.

I can see a little bit truth to both claims. But both claims in their extremes feel far-fetched. The YCL did some bulleying in 2008. Perhaps the army stuffed some boxes. But there was a major pro-Maoist wave in 2008. They were an untested bunch, and the people thought they might be radically different from the NC and the UML. But in power they did not act too different. And so that created an anti-incumbency wave.

The Madhesi parties went to the people wanting two states in the Terai. I see two states in the Terai being created by the new assembly.

The Maoists campaigned hard against the Madhesi parties in the Terai. The Madhesi parties campaigned hard against each other in the Terai. Ashok Rai went in solo. No wonder they all got poor results. The people wondered, if the Maoists and the Madhesis feel strongly about identity based federalism, why are they so against each other?

Madhesi Parties: 12 Lakh PR Votes

Now the best option is to go for six states - Eastern Terai, Western Terai, Koshi, Bagmati, Gandaki, Karnali - where half the MPs get elected from the Terai.

The Federalism Question: Maps

The attempt should be to form an all party government. The attempt should be that the Maoists get the Speaker position.

Then these parties should do internal homework.

Isn't this amazing? All these Madhesi parties will join the Maoist alliance, but they will still not talk about becoming one party? I find that mind boggling.

If they face the local and state elections in a fractured way like they faced the November election, they will fare just as bad.

UCPN (Maoist), other dissidents form new alliance
A group of 18 dissident political parties has formed a Federal Democratic Alliance (FDA) ..... UCPN (Maoist), Tarai-Madhes Democratic Party (TMDP), Madhesi People´s Rights Forum Nepal (MPRF-N), Federal Socialist Party Nepal (FSP-N), Sadbhavana Party, Tarai-Madhes Sadbhavana Party, MPRF-Republican, Tharuhat Tarai Party, Sanghiya Loktantrik Rastriya Manch, Rastriya Janamukti Party and Federal Sadbhavana Party ..... UCPN (Maoist) leaders have accused the Election Commission, the Nepal Army and "some other invisible forces" of perpetrating vote fraud under a plan to defeat Maoist candidates across the country. Maoist leaders said that the number of votes was manipulated while collecting the ballot boxes from the polling booths and bringing them to the vote counting centers.
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Thursday, November 28, 2013

Consensus Government For A Consensus Constitution

President: Ram Baran Yadav. He gets to continue because that is what the interim constitution says.
Prime Minister: Sushil Koirala.
Deputy Prime Minister: KP Oli might feel it is his turn.
Congress 9
Maoist 4
SP 1

This would represent 499 out of 575 seats. That is a comfortable margin for constitution making.

It is important to bring the four forces together so as to ensure smooth constitution making. On the tricky issue of federalism, I think we can make do with six states, four in the Hills/Mountains, and two in the Terai, all of them with one word geographic names. That is how I am reading the people's mandate.
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Formula For Unification

Eastern Terai -  - HT -3
Eastern Terai - - HT -3 (Photo credit: lecercle)

  1. Come up with a new name. Do not use any existing name. Make that name ethnicity and geography neutral. Keep it short. How about Samabeshi Party? Just a thought. 
  2. The party presidency goes to Gachhedar because (a) his party was the top vote earner, and (b) Tharus are the most populous ethnic group in the Terai
  3. Mahantha Thakur gets the Sarbamanya Neta title for being the most senior leader. 
  4. Upendra Yadav, Rajendra Mahto and Sharad Singh Bhandari can be the three Vice Presidents. They also just so happen to represent Yadavs, Vaisyas, and the indigenous Pahadis in the Terai. People like Sharad Singh Bhandari are of Pahadi origin but they have been in the Terai for generations. They know no other home. 
  5. A 11 member Politburo and a 31 member Central Committee would house all top leaders. Leaders of the Terai Madhesh Sadbhavana Party, the Dalit Janajati Party, and the Nepali Janata Dal belong in the Politburo as does Sarita Giri for being the top woman Madhesi leader. 
  6. The vote tally of each party is the sole determinant of what seat they get at the table. 
  7. Hold a national convention before monsoon, perhaps in April and go on to win the local and state elections.  

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Madhesi Parties: 12 Lakh PR Votes

There was an anti-Maoist wave, but there was no anti-Madhesi wave. If the Madhesi parties had been one, that unified party would have emerged as the third largest. But that is simple arithmetic. That unification might have created a pro-Madhesi wave, and that wave might have catapulted the unified party into a possible second position.

This is not a question of what the 13 million Madhesis will do, if they are politically conscious or not, or how they will vote. This is a question of what two dozen Madhesi leaders will do. Will they live up to the promise?

If one unified Madhesi party emerges, that party will produce the Chief Ministers in both states in the Terai.
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Unification Efforts

बाराका मधेशवादी दलहरुको एउटै कार्यालय बन्दै
बारामा सक्रिय ९ वटा मधेशवादी दलहरु एउटै कार्यालयमा बसी ती दलहरु बीच एकीकरणका लागि जिल्ला स्तरबाटै दबाब दिने उद्देश्यले बुधबार बाराको कलैयामा निर्णय गरेका छन् ... मधेशका जिल्लाहरुमा मधेशवादी दलहरु हारेपनि तीनिहरुको भोट जोड्दा हरेक क्षेत्रमा विजयी भएको निष्कर्ष निकाल्दै उनीहरुले मधेशवादी दलहरुका उम्मेदवारहरुको हारको मुख्य कारण पार्टीहरु बिच फुट रहेको भन्दै केन्द्रमा पार्टी बिच एकिकरण गराउने उद्देश्यले चारबुँदे निर्णयसमेत गरेका छन् । बाराका सम्पूर्ण मधेशवादी दलहरु एकैछातामा आई पार्टी एकीकरणका लागि प्रक्रिया अगाडि बढाउने, हरेक पार्टीले जिल्ला स्तरमा आ–आफ्नो निर्णय गरी दुई दिन भित्र संयुक्त पार्टी कार्यालय खोल्ने लागयतका निणर्यहरु उनीहरुले गरेका छन् । ..... कार्यक्रममा फोरम नेपाल, फोरम लोकतान्त्रिक, फोरम गणतान्त्रिक, रामसपा, तमसपा, सपा, नेसपा, तमलोपा, संघीय सद्भावना पार्टीलगायत ९ वटा राजनीतिक दलका केन्द्रदेखि जिल्ला तहसम्मका नेता कार्यकर्ताहरु सामूहिक रुपमा एकीकरणका लागि अघि बढ्नुपर्ने निष्कर्ष निकालिएको थियो ।
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Tuesday, November 26, 2013

PR Votes: Madhesi Parties

मधेशी जनअधिकार फोरम, नेपाल(लोकतान्त्रिक)१९९७००
मधेशी जनअधिकार फोरम, नेपाल१५३२०२
तराई–मधेश लोकतान्त्रिक पार्टी९४९६५
१०सङ्घीय समाजवादी पार्टी, नेपाल८९२४८
११सद्भावना पार्टी७४६२७
१५थरुहट तराई पार्टी नेपाल४८५१३
१६राष्ट्रिय मधेश समाजवादी पार्टी४३३५०
२१मधेशी जनअधिकार फोरम (गणतान्त्रिक)२४२४९
२३तराई मधेश सदभावना पार्टी नेपाल२१८४१
२६संघीय सद्भावना पार्टी१८७७८
३२मधेश समता पार्टी नेपाल१२३०४
३६नेपाल सद्भावना पार्टी९३४६
४०मधेश तराई फोरम७८८५

६४राष्ट्रिय मधेश बहुजन समाजवादी पार्टी३५६७
६७मधेशी जनअधिकार फोरम मधेश३४७९
६८बहुजन समाज पार्टी नेपाल३३३६
७३नेपाल सद्भावना पार्टी (युनाइटेड)३०६३
८१नेपाल सद्भावना पार्टी (गजेन्द्रवादी)२५५८
११३राष्ट्रिय मधेश एकता पार्टी, नेपाल१३४१
११८नेपाल मधेशी जनता दल (समाजवादी)१०४९
Total 8,16,400

नेपाली काँग्रेस१७२३१५८
नेपाल कम्यूनिष्ट पार्टी (ए. मा. ले)१६४२७२३
एकीकृत नेपाल कम्युनिष्ट पार्टी (माओवादी)१००९३०६
राष्ट्रिय प्रजातन्त्र पार्टी नेपाल४४१६३१
मधेशी जनअधिकार फोरम, नेपाल(लोकतान्त्रिक)१९९७००
राष्ट्रिय प्रजातन्त्र पार्टी१८६९०५
मधेशी जनअधिकार फोरम, नेपाल१५३२०२

The messages is, had there been just one Madhesi party, that party would have been right behind or ahead of the Maoists. That unified Madhesi party would have gotten something in the range of 100 seats. There was no massive anti-Madhesi wave. What was true instead was that the Madhesi parties were so massively fragmented. As one party, the Madhesis would have done as well as last time if not better. 
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PR Votes

निर्वाचन आयोग
संविधान सभा सदस्य निर्वाचन, २०७०
समानुपातिक निर्वाचनको मत गणनाको प्रारम्भिक परिणाम
गणना भएको निर्वाचन क्षेत्र संख्या : १९७
Wednesday 27th of November 2013 07:54:04 AM
क्र.स.राजनैतिक दलप्राप्त मत
नेपाली काँग्रेस१७२३१५८
नेपाल कम्यूनिष्ट पार्टी (ए. मा. ले)१६४२७२३
एकीकृत नेपाल कम्युनिष्ट पार्टी (माओवादी)१००९३०६
राष्ट्रिय प्रजातन्त्र पार्टी नेपाल४४१६३१
मधेशी जनअधिकार फोरम, नेपाल(लोकतान्त्रिक)१९९७००
राष्ट्रिय प्रजातन्त्र पार्टी१८६९०५
मधेशी जनअधिकार फोरम, नेपाल१५३२०२
तराई–मधेश लोकतान्त्रिक पार्टी९४९६५
नेपाल कम्युनिष्ट पार्टी (मार्क्सवादी–लेनिनवादी)९१५७२
१०सङ्घीय समाजवादी पार्टी, नेपाल८९२४८
११सद्भावना पार्टी७४६२७
१२नेपाल कम्युनिष्ट पार्टी (संयुक्त)६५८३०
१३राष्ट्रिय जनमोर्चा५९५५०
१४नेपाल मजदुर किसान पार्टी५६७०९
१५थरुहट तराई पार्टी नेपाल४८५१३
१६राष्ट्रिय मधेश समाजवादी पार्टी४३३५०
१७राष्ट्रिय जनमुक्ति पार्टी४२१३८
१८नेपाल परिवार दल३७९७०
१९दलित जनजाति पार्टी३०४५०
२०अखण्ड नेपाल पार्टी२७३१३
२१मधेशी जनअधिकार फोरम (गणतान्त्रिक)२४२४९
२२नेपाली जनता दल२३३९६
२३तराई मधेश सदभावना पार्टी नेपाल२१८४१
२४खम्वुवान राष्ट्रिय मोर्चा, नेपाल२०८०९
२५जनजागरण पार्टी नेपाल२०२१९
२६संघीय सद्भावना पार्टी१८७७८
२७नेपाः राष्ट्रिय पार्टी१६१५४
२८समाजवादी जनता पार्टी१५०५१
२९संघीय लोकतान्त्रिक राष्ट्रिय मञ्च (थरुहट)१४१५३
३०नेपाल कम्युनिष्ट पार्टी१३३८६
३१संघीय गणतान्त्रिक समाजवादी पार्टी, नेपाल१२९३४
३२मधेश समता पार्टी नेपाल१२३०४
३३नेपाल जनता पार्टी१२०३५
३४खस समावेशी राष्ट्रिय पार्टी११८९९
३५नेपाल युवा किसान पार्टी१०६५२
३६नेपाल सद्भावना पार्टी९३४६
३७अखण्ड सुदूरपश्चिम पार्टी नेपाल८७४७
३८तराई मधेश पहाड हिमाल एकता पार्टी८६४६
३९राष्ट्रिय स्वाभिमान पार्टी नेपाल८५६७
४०मधेश तराई फोरम७८८५
४१लोक दल७२८८
४२जनता दल नेपाल६९४३
४३नेपाल लोकतान्त्रिक समाजवादी दल६७०९
४४शिवसेना नेपाल६५१९
४५मंगोल नेशनल अर्गनाइजेशन६२९६
४६जन प्रजातान्त्रिक पार्टी५९१०
४७नव नेपाल निर्माण पार्टी५७०५
४८नेपाल शान्ति क्षेत्र परिषद्५५२५
४९नेपाल कम्युनिष्ट पार्टी (मालेमा) साम्यवादी५३१३
५०जनता दल लोकतान्त्रिक पार्टी५२२३
५१संघीय लिम्बुवान राज्य परिषद५१२१
५२नेपाल गणतान्त्रिक एकता पार्टी४८६५
५३पिछडावर्ग निषाद दलित जनजाति पार्टी४८४३
५४चुरेभावर राष्ट्रिय एकता पार्टी नेपाल४५८०
५५शान्ति पार्टी नेपाल४४०२
५६राष्ट्रिय यथार्थवादी पार्टी नेपाल४०७१
५७जनता दल युनाइटेड४०५१
५८संयुक्त राष्ट्रवादी मोर्चा नेपाल३९३६
५९सहकारी पार्टी नेपाल३८४८
६०राष्ट्रिय मुक्ति आन्दोलन, नेपाल३७५९
६१नेपाल नागरिक पार्टी३५८६
६२राष्ट्रिय जनता दल नेपाल३५६७
६३विश्व सत्यवादी पार्टी३५६७
६४राष्ट्रिय मधेश बहुजन समाजवादी पार्टी३५६७
६५राष्ट्रिय शिवसेना पार्टी३५४६
६६नेपालआमा पार्टी३५०९
६७मधेशी जनअधिकार फोरम मधेश३४७९
६८बहुजन समाज पार्टी नेपाल३३३६
६९गरीब एकता समाज पार्टी, नेपाल३३१२
७०चुरेभावर लोकतान्त्रिक पार्टी३३००
७१राष्ट्रिय नागरिक पार्टी३२९३
७२राष्ट्रिय चुरेभावर पार्टी३२४१
७३नेपाल सद्भावना पार्टी (युनाइटेड)३०६३
७४हिन्दु प्रजातान्त्रिक पार्टी, नेपाल३०११
७५संघीय समावेशी समाजवादी पार्टी, नेपाल२९८०
७५संघीय समावेशी समाजवादी पार्टी, नेपाल२९८०
७६नयाँ नेपाल राष्ट्रिय पार्टी२७९०
७७नेपाल समावेशी पार्टी२७६१
७८चुरेभावर राष्ट्रिय पार्टी२७१७
७९देशभक्त समाज२७१३
८०देशभक्त पर्यावरणीय सामाजिक (देपसा) मोर्चा२६६५
८१नेपाल सद्भावना पार्टी (गजेन्द्रवादी)२५५८
८२लिबरल डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी२५५७
८३नेपाल जनसमावेशी एकता पार्टी२५५२
८४लिम्बुवान मुक्ति मोर्चा२५२९
८५जनतान्त्रिक तराई मधेश मुक्ति टाइगर्स२४६८
८६नयाँ संघीयता जनधारणा पार्टी२४६६
८७नेपाल गौरवशाली पार्टी२४३८
८८नेपाल राष्ट्रिय विकास पार्टी२४२५
८९नेपाल कम्युनिष्ट पार्टी (माले–समाजवादी)२३८४
९०जनमोर्चा नेपाल२३१५
९१राष्ट्रिय एकता पार्टी२२५५
९२नेपाल राष्ट्रसेवा दल२२३७
९३युनाइटेड ग्रीन अर्गनाइजेशन२२२०
९४नेपाल लेबर पार्टी२२१०
९५राष्ट्रवादी एकता पार्टी२१८६
९६राष्ट्रवादी जनता पार्टी२१५९
९७लिम्बुवान मुक्ति मोर्चा नेपाल२१२७
९८जनता पार्टी नेपाल२१०९
९९जनयुनिटी को–अपरेटिभ पार्टी नेपाल२०४०
१००मातृभूमि नेपाल दल१८९०
१०१संघीय विकासवादी पार्टी नेपाल१७५५
१०२नेपाल जनभावना पार्टी१७३४
१०३नेपाल राष्ट्रिय यातायात विकास दल१६२०
१०४नेपाल न्यायिक दल१६१३
१०५नेपाल समाजवादी पार्टी (लोहियावादी)१५७१
१०६लोकतान्त्रिक पार्टी–नेपाल१५३१
१०७श्रमिक जनता पार्टी–नेपाल१५००
१०८नेपाल श्रमजिवी दल१४३८
१०९राष्ट्रिय जन विकास पार्टी१४१०
११०तामाङसालिङ राष्ट्रिय जनएकता पार्टी१४१०
१११हरियाली नेपाल पार्टी१४०१
११२संयुक्त जनमोर्चा१३५७
११३राष्ट्रिय मधेश एकता पार्टी, नेपाल१३४१
११४तराई पहाड हिमाल समाज पार्टी११८७
११५सोसल रिपब्लिकन पार्टी११८७
११६लोकतान्त्रिक जनता पार्टी नेपाल११३०
११७लिग नेपाल शान्ति एकता पार्टी१११४
११८नेपाल मधेशी जनता दल (समाजवादी)१०४९
११९युवा शक्ति नेपाल पार्टी९६७
१२०ॐ सेना नेपाल९४०
१२१राष्ट्रिय लोकतान्त्रिक युवा पार्टी८१३
१२२नेपाली जनता पार्टी६१५
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