Wednesday, February 01, 2012

Good Map, Bad Map

I can't believe anyone today is proposing the second map.

Even the map at the top has issues. Narayani is an unnatural state. Chitwan belongs in the Madhesh. Narayani feels like territory stolen from the Madhesh, Tamuwan and Magarat states. Karnali is too big and it should more appropriately be named Khasan. But I guess it is not too big populationwise.

I like it that the two states in the Terai are adjacent to each other.

The Nepali Congress Will Get Wiped Out In The Terai In The Next Election
A Non Territorial State For Dalits: Great Idea

The Nepali Congress Will Get Wiped Out In The Terai In The Next Election

English: Nepali congress leaderImage via WikipediaThe Nepali Congress ruled the country after 1990 for the most part and it was so because it stayed strong in the Terai, electorally speaking. The UML had a rather small presence in the Terai. And parties like the Sadbhavana did not make much headway because the thinking was that if you voted for the Congress, you can get work done later, because the party will be in power. That incumbency factor was of a huge advantage to the Congress.

But that is no longer true after the last election. The Congress by now is half the size of the Maoist party. And it shows no signs of getting into power. The incumbency advantage now has shifted to the Madhesi parties.

The Madhesi parties are going to have to forge an electoral alliance. Like the Left Front and the Third Front in India. They are going to have to not contest against each other. If they could do that they would do really well.

That is not to say the Maoists will not compete against them. The Maoists might try and secure a full majority on their own. I don't see it happening, as in I don't see them securing a majority on their own. If they are wise they'd forge a pre-poll alliance with the Madhesi parties to secure power post-poll.

And so you might look at a scenario whereby the Madhesi parties sweep the Madhesh, and the Maoists do well in Tharuwan and the hills and mountains. The Congress fights a losing battle against the Madhesi parties in the Madhesh. And the UML fights a losing battle against the Maoists in the hills.

The Maoists and the Madhesi parties currently stand at about 50% strength. After the next election they might end up with 60% if they make the right pre-poll moves.

The NC and the UML have shown their true colors through their stances on federalism. The truth is they never really accepted the idea of federalism. And the people have to punish them for that.

Republica: SRC report of majority to be accepted: DPM Gachchhadar
He even criticized the CPN-UML and Nepali Congress (NC) for being anti-autonomous states. The members of the UML and NC who submitted the separate reports have done so against the ethics, Gachhadar said. The separate report submitted by the NC and UML follows the panchayat style, he said. He also claimed that NC and UML have presented such report as they are strictly against United Democratic Madhesi Front.
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A Non Territorial State For Dalits: Great Idea

Dalit Janajati PartyImage via WikipediaRepublica: SRC majority report for 11 states
Limbuwan, Kirant, Tamsaling, Newa, Tamuwan, Narayani, Magarat, Karnali, Madhes-Mithila-Bhojpura, Madhesh-Abadh-Tharuwan and Dalit (non-territorial)
I am surprised there are still lawmakers insisting on Panchayati style north south states. But the 11 state idea is a good one, and the best part of the report might be the idea of securing a non territorial state for Dalits. That would be a cutting edge thing to do. Minus that the Dalits would have been shortchanged. I am so glad for this provision.

The Dalits are the most downtrodden group in Nepal.

This has to be coupled with the 33% provision for women. That applies to all parliaments in all states, including the Dalit state.

I am glad to see the country get one step closer to federalism.
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