Democracy For Nepal

Monday, September 08, 2014

Ideas, Execution And The Old Economy

English: Jack Ma speaks during The Future of the Global Economy: The View from China plenary session at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting of the New Champions in Tianjin, China 28 September 2008. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

(written for Vishwa Sandesh)

The taxi cab is squarely in the old economy. So is the motel, or apartments passing for motels. But Uber and AirBnB are tech companies. They are not only tech, they are cutting edge tech, they are billion, multi-billion dollar tech companies.

Software started out as pure information processing. Then when connectivity came along, and the Internet took off, that information processing went to whole new heights. By now I feel software has clearly started eating into the big world out there. Uber should be an inspiration for people who might know their small chunk of the old economy pretty well, but who find technology intimidating.

A few developers writing code is one way to start a tech company. Sometimes you have a great idea that goes on to change the world. Sometimes your idea is not so good. Acquiring a good knowledge of an industry or a segment of the economy takes time. But time spent acquiring that knowledge might also have been time spent not learning to code. I happen to think that is a smaller problem.

The saying goes, ideas are a dime a dozen, what really matters is execution. I don’t agree with that. There are scores of old, big companies that have perfected the art of execution, but that can be considered brain dead, because they stopped innovating a long time ago, and are on their way out. Ideas matter. But once you do have an excellent idea, it is then all about execution. Unless the idea is executed, it is not a business.

Once you have an excellent idea, it is all about execution. That I buy into.

In the recent years the early stage funding market has really blossomed. You can raise more money earlier than you used to be able to. That does not always mean you can skip the friends and family round. It helps to have a basic prototype even when you want to raise money from angels. And if you are not coding yourself, chances are you are hiring coders, or a tech team, perhaps a tech consultant. That costs some money, maybe less than what it costs to launch a paan dokan in Jackson Heights, but it is still money.

Angels and venture capitalists get hit by ideas all day every day. So when you have a prototype you are ahead of perhaps 95% of the people out there. But even after that, it is hard for the investors to see what you got. One metric separates you from the herd. Do you have a product that has a rapidly growing user base? If the answer is yes, the investors don’t even have to fully comprehend what your idea is, they will fall for you.

In the first dot com boom launching a dot com meant buying servers, for one. You were going to host your website somewhere! But today even a near billion dollar company like FourSquare uses Amazon Web Services. Cloud hosting seems to work just fine. And that server space is really cheap when you just start out. For a few hundred dollars a month, you could go a long way. How about that?

You need an excellent idea. You need some seed money that you can cough up yourself, or you can raise among family and friends. It also helps to have a Cofounder. A big reason is emotion management. In the morning you can feel like a future millionaire. By evening you might feel you were better off working the day at the local McDonald’s, because you might at least have made a few bucks. And that emotional roller coaster is with successful startups. I am not talking about failures.

And you need to execute. You need to move. Risk taking has to be impulsive for you. Too much caution can cause analysis paralysis where you absolutely refuge to move. Tech entrepreneurship is not for everybody. But it is for more people than have given it a shot. I think there is a lot of room for people with in-depth knowledge of segments of the old economy. Start innovating. Jack Ma, who is the new Jack Welch, is not a coder. You don’t have to be.

You have to become obsessed with your idea. The Pinterest founder wrote personal, handwritten letters to his first 5,000 users. He was just so grateful they were even using his product. You need that kind of obsession. When you have only 100 users, you shower on them the attention that you might later have to spread to a million users. That kind of obsession.

New York City is number two after San Francisco by now when it comes to tech startups. You are not in the wrong city to be launching a tech startup. You can if you want to, but no, you don’t have to move to California to launch a tech startup. Drop your buckets, you are off the mouth of the Amazon, came the morse code reply from the ship that was asked for drinking water.

Saturday, September 06, 2014

संविधान निर्माणका विवादित विषयहरु

English: Detail of Preamble to Constitution of the United States Polski: Fragment preambuły Konstytucji Stanów Zjednoczonych (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

(written for Madheshvani)

संविधान निर्माण पहिलो संविधान सभामा हुन नसक्नुको कारण नै संघीयता थियो, र अहिले पनि प्रमुख पार्टीहरु यस जटिल मुद्दामा आँखामा आँखा मिलाउन सकिरहेका छैनन्। जनताको प्रत्यक्ष् मतद्वारा पुर्ण कार्यकारी अधिकार भएको राष्ट्रपति चुन्ने कि संसदले प्रधान मंत्री चुन्ने भन्ने कुरामा पनि विवाद नभएको होइन। अरु पनि कुराहरु छन, तर मुख्य विवाद संघीयताको मुद्दामा नै छ।

नेपाल बाहुन क्षेत्री २०% भएको देश। सद्दाम हुसेनको इराक़मा पनि २०% सुन्नी हरुले राज गरेको अवस्था थियो। नेपालमा २०% बाहुन क्षेत्री, २०% दलित, ३०% जनजाति र ३०% मधेसी छन। दलित पहाड़मा पनि र तराईमा पनि भएकोले र थारु मधेसी पनि र जनजाति पनि भएकोले ती संख्याहरु तल माथि पर्न जाने हो। महिला स्वतः समग्रमा ५०% भए।

२०४७ मा कृष्ण प्रसाद भट्टराईले ल्याएको संविधानमा देशमा बाहुन क्षेत्रीको वर्चस्व कायम राख्ने किसिमको थियो। कांग्रेस र एमालेमा त्यही जमातको बिग्बिगि छ। बाहुन क्षेत्रीको ऐतिहासिक वर्चस्व कायम राख्ने कि दलित, मधेसी, जनजाति र महिलालाई समान अधिकार दिने? झगड़ाको गाँठी त्यो हो। एमाओवादी यस मुद्दामा प्रगतिशील देखिए पनि त्यस पार्टीको केन्द्रीय समिति बाहुन हरुकै पकड़मा छ। दमजमलाई सजिलो छैन।

दमजमलाई बराबर अधिकार दिने समावेशी संविधान बन्नुपर्छ भन्ने कुरामा विवाद हुन सक्दैन। तर कांग्रेस र एमालेका बाहुनहरुले भन्ने प्रत्येक कुरा र लिने प्रत्येक अडानलाई हतारमा बाहुनवादको संज्ञा दिई हाल्नु पनि हुँदैन। संघीय नेपालमा बन्ने राज्यहरु आर्थिक रुपले सक्छम हुनुपर्छ भन्ने अडान गलत होइन।

जातीय संघीयताको सबैभन्दा परिष्कृत नक्शा एमाओवादीले गृह युद्धको समयमा सारेकै हो। त्यस नक्शाको आधारमा पहिलो संविधान सभामा मैंडेट पनि पाएकै हो। त्यस नक्शाको विरोध गर्ने कांग्रेस र एमालेले पछिल्लो चुनाव जितेकै हुन। जनताको इच्छा सबैले मिलेर संविधान बनाउ भन्ने हो।

पहाड़का जनजातिलाई जातीय संघीयता दिन्नौं भन्ने, तराईका मधेसीलाई भौगोलिक संघीयता दिन्नौ भन्ने कांग्रेस र एमालेका बाहुनहरुको नियतमाथि शंका गर्ने ठाउँ छ। अर्को राष्ट्रिय चुनाव एमाओवादी र मधेसीले जितलान। त्यो त लोकतन्त्रको पेंडुलम हल्लिएको हो, कहिले यता त कहिले उता। संघीयताको विरोधमा नेपाली जनताले कहिले मैंडेट दिएका छैनन्।

भनेपछि संघीयताको मुद्दामा मिलन विन्दु कहाँ छ त? मोटामोटी जानुपर्ने भौगोलिक संघीयता तिर नै हो, तर सम्पुर्ण राज्य समावेशी बनाउने किसिमले। मेरो परिकल्पना ६ राज्यको छ: चितवन र उदयपुर समेटने पुर्व तराई, सुर्खेत समेटने पश्चिम तराई, कोशी, बाग्मती, गण्डकी र कर्णाली। संघीयताको नक्शा र नाम भौगोलिक तर संसदको बनौट भने पुर्ण समावेशी। तल्लो सदनमा २०५ सीट, माथिल्लो सदनमा १०० सीट। २०५ को १०५ शायद तराईमा पर्ला, जनसंख्याको समानुपातिक हुने गरी। २०५ मध्ये २० सीट दलितकालागि आरक्षित, १० तराईमा, १० पहाड़मा। आरक्षित भनेको ती २० सीटमा जुन सुकै पार्टीले दलित कैंडिडेट मात्र उठाउन पाउने। ७० सीट महिलाकालागि आरक्षित, ३५ तराईमा, ३५ पहाड़मा। ती ७० सीट मध्ये १४ दलित महिलाकालागि, २१ जनजाति महिलाकालागि र २१ मधेसी महिलाकालागि। ३० सीट जनजातिकालागि र ३० सीट मधेसीकालागि।

माथिल्लो सदनका १०० सीटकालागि पुर्ण समानुपातिक। कुन पार्टीले समग्रमा कति वोट ल्यायो त्यसको आधारमा सीटको बाँडफाँड हुने। प्रत्येक पार्टीले आफ्नो लिस्ट चुनाव अगाडि नै पब्लिक पनि गर्नुपर्ने र बुझाउनु पनि पर्ने। लिस्ट समावेशी हुनु पर्ने। यानि कि लिस्टमा प्रत्येक तेस्रो नाम महिला, प्रत्येक पाँचौं नाम दलित हुनुपर्ने। प्रत्येक चौथो नाम पहाड़मा जनजाति र तराईमा मधेसी हुनुपर्ने। लिस्ट चुनावको नतिजा आइसकेपछि फेरबदल गर्न नपाइने। यदि एउटा पार्टीले २० सीट जितेमा त्यस पार्टीको पब्लिक लिस्टको प्रथम २० व्यक्ति स्वतः निर्वाचित।

भौगोलिक संघीयतामा गएर समावेशी राज्य बनाउने तरिका यो पो हो कि?

प्रधान मंत्री यी ३०५ जनाले चुन्ने, मंत्री परिषद्मा बस्न सांसद हुन नपर्ने। देशको प्रत्येक तहको निर्वाचित नेताहरुले वोट खसालेर चुनेको व्यक्ति राष्ट्रपति हुने। प्रधान मंत्री कार्यकारी अध्यक्ष, राष्ट्रपति संबैधानिक अध्यक्ष र नेपाल सेनाको प्रमुख।

६ राज्यमा एक एक सदन हुने। ७५ जिल्ला कायम राख्ने। राज्य, जिल्ला र शहर/गाउँ का सरकारहरुलाई प्रशस्त अधिकार दिने। प्रत्येक स्तरमा समावेशी सरकार बनाउने। महिलालाई प्रत्येक तहमा एक तिहाई। दलितलाई प्रत्येक तहमा १०%।

राष्ट्रिय संसदको प्रत्येक निर्वाचन क्षेत्रलाई राज्य स्तरमा ठयाक्क दुई भाग पार्ने हो कि?

राज्य पुनसंरचनाको विवादको मुख्य मुद्दा तर संघीयता होइन। मुख्य मुद्दा हो नेपाल सेनालाई १०,००० को संख्यामा झार्ने, नेपाल पुलिस लाई गृह युद्ध भन्दा अगाडि को अवस्था भन्दा सानो पुर्याउने, केही मंत्रालय हरु हटाउनै पर्ने छ, सबैलाई पातलो बनाउनुपर्ने छ। संघीयता भनेको बढ़ी राम्रो संरचना हो, त्यस सिस्टममा अहिलेको भन्दा कम कर्मचारीले चल्ने हुन्छ। नेपाल सेनालाई १००,००० बाट १०,००० मा पुर्याए ९०,००० शिक्षक र स्वास्थ सेवक हरु राख्न पाइयो नि त।

संघीयता भन्दा राज्य पुनसंरचना ठुलो मुद्दा र सबै भन्दा ठुलो मुद्दा समयमा संविधान बन्नु हो। चीन कुदेको छ, भारत कुदन लागिसक्यो, नेपाल भने संविधान र नियमित निर्वाचन न भएकोले अलपत्रमा छ। समयमा संविधान नआए सबै पार्टीका सबै नेताले जिम्मेवारी बोक्नु पर्नेछ।

Beyond Federalism To Double Digit Growth

Nepal topography. The green/yellow zones hold the Inner Terai valleys. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

(Article sent to Kantipur on August 6, 2014)

A few months after the king’s coup in 2005 I moved to New York City from the Midwest. I had no such plans, but I ended up putting full time work into Nepal’s democracy movement, and subsequently the Madhesi movement. I went on to become Barack Obama’s first full time volunteer in all of New York City. I also watched Modi’s campaign for hours each day. To this day I follow Nepali politics pretty closely.

It is a shame that Nepal’s constitution was not written during the first two years of the first constituent assembly. Nepal’s leaders failed its people. But here we are with six months to go. Not completing the task is not an option, because massive economic opportunities are knocking at the door.

During the Shivaratri mayhem around Pashupati, all you have to do is go stand in the middle and the crowd will take you forward. China has been growing at massive rates with no signs of slowing down. India is about to take off in a similar way. All Nepal has to do is provide basic political stability, basic law and order, and the economy would take off for being sandwiched between the two awake giants. This is precisely the point I made when I got to meet Prime Minister Sushil Koirala in NYC a few weeks back.

I think the recent electoral mandate was broadly for geographic federalism. We should move towards six states: East Terai (Chitwan and Udaypur included), West Terai (Surkhet included), Koshi, Bagmati, Gandaki, Karnali. The primary achievement of the Madhesh Movement was making sure the number of MPs from the Terai is in direct proportion to its population. That has to continue. Beyond that an electoral system fair to the DaMaJaMa (Dalit, Madhesi, Janajati, Mahila) has to be put in place.

205 seats in a lower house and 100 seats in an upper house might suffice. 7% of the 205 seats, or 15 seats should be reserved for Dalits. These would be constituencies where only Dalit candidates may contest. One third of all seats should similarly be set aside for women, or about 67 seats. Of those seats for women, 20% should be for Dalit women, 30% for Madhesi women, and 30% for Janajati women.

For the 100 upper house seats, it would be fully proportional. How many votes a party collects would determine how many seats that party gets. There would be provisions for the DaMaJaMa. One third for women again, as in every third name on a party’s list should be a woman. 7% for Dalits again. 10% for Madhesis, and 10% for Janajatis. The parties must submit lists before the election and make them public. The lists may not be amended after the election. So if a party gets 10 seats, the first 10 names on its submitted list get in.

A Prime Minister elected by both Chambers of the House would be the Executive Chief, free to form his cabinet with people from inside and outside the parliament, and a president elected by all elected leaders in the country at all levels, local, state and national, would serve as the constitutional head, and the Commander In Chief of the Nepal Army.

The six states would have unicameral legislatures. Every parliamentary constituency might be split into two state legislature constituencies. The 75 districts stay intact. There is the central government, there are the six state governments, the 75 district governments, and the city, town and village governments. It is important to come up with formulas such that the state, district and local governments end up with substantial budgets.

Nepal that is a federal country should have many fewer bureaucrats, soldiers and police officers than it currently has, because federalism is a more efficient form of government. A lot of stuff gets taken care of locally. Downsizing the Nepal Army from 100,000 soldiers to about 10,000 soldiers would free up resources for tens of thousands of teachers and health care workers. Policing is a state function and so Nepal Police will have to give way. Several ministries will have to be eliminated, all will have to be significantly downsized.

Modi during his recent visit said, “Nepal can become a developed nation by selling power to India.” That is true. Once the country has a new constitution and there are regular elections to all levels of government I am sure the country will see plenty of good leaders emerge who might do for Nepal what Nitish Kumar has done for Bihar.

An economic revolution would be Nepal growing at double digit rates year in year out for 30 years. That kind of growth rate is the best and fastest way to wiping out poverty in the country.

(Paramendra Bhagat is a tech entrepreneur based in New York City. His global team is working on an Augmented Reality Mobile Game.)

Tuesday, September 02, 2014

50 Millionaires

Nepali architect - Arniko in Miaoying Temple (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Russia hosts the largest cluster of Nepali millionaires in the Nepali diaspora. By some counts there are about 30 millionaires based in Moscow. These are all self made people. And so you can not argue the NRN leadership has been dominated by wealth.

For the first time NRNA USA has some semblance of existence. There are thousands of members, there are duly elected leaders. But NRNA USA is still no close to aspirations of global leadership.

For me it is less about the NRNA organization and more about Nepal’s economic growth as it can be projected over the next three decades. I did full time work for Nepal’s democracy movement in the 2005 period. Subsequently I put full time work into Nepal’s Madhesi Movement. And I have moved on. And now the issue is economic growth.

You can’t build a successful company as an act of charity, or by thinking about a particular country. Entrepreneurship responds to its internal forces. It is a high risk venture. You have to respond to the market forces. And it is not like I don’t think about me or my family. But I do also have one eye on Nepal.

To me more important than membership drives of the NRNA is the quest to see at least 50 millionaires among the Nepalis in NYC. That is the only meaningful way the Nepalis in America, more specifically New York, can not only hope to provide global leadership to the NRNA but, more importantly, make meaningful contributions to Nepal’s economic growth. So I look more for aspiring entrepreneurs than neta types. A few I might team up with, many I would just want to stay in the loop with.

You have to be in a position to personally invest, you have to be in a position to guide global investments into the Nepali economy, and then you can also hope to collectively propose policy changes that are so fundamental to letting the economy in Nepal bloom to its rightful size.

Working for Nepal’s democracy and Madhesi movements cost me money. I had to eat into my savings. But this next phase is about making money, about creating some serious personal wealth.

I don’t have much taste for old economy ventures. That is not a stamp of disapproval. The richest Nepalis in the city today have all made their money in the old economy. But I am grounded in software, and my ventures are new economy ventures. I find high tech exciting. Down the line that also makes room for clean energy ventures.

Building an ambitious company in a city like New York necessarily means you are going to aim for a global customer base, or at least a globally diverse customer base. That necessarily means you are going to have to build a globally diverse team. You can not have an all Nepali team trying to serve a global customer base. So you build your company following rules that are best for the company’s growth. And you contribute to Nepal’s economy to the best of your abilities, according to rules that best serve the purpose.

New York City is greatly suited for building great companies, especially multi-national corporations. The infrastructure here - and I don’t mean just the trains and buses - is optimal. It has a well developed financial marketplace. You count your blessings and you make your moves.

I have my tech startup, an Augmented Reality Mobile Game. That is recent, and it is pre-launch. I have had my tech consulting firm for years now. I have a strong bias in that I like working with tech startup type clients. Usually I just build the basic prototype. In rare cases I also end up taking a bigger role. I bring more than tech to the table. I also bring my knowledge of tech startups. I have been building a network for fundraising among professional investors for years now. But you can only cash on it if you have built the right company with the right kind of growth rates. Read: wild growth rates. Investors are business people. They invest because they think you will grow their money.

Nepalis in New York should be able to outdo the Nepalis in Moscow. And entrepreneurship is that route. I happen to believe entrepreneurship is for everybody. I am a big fan of network marketing, for example. Because it allows a venue for entrepreneurship even among the low income Nepalis in the city. Or you could invest 5K, 10K in a tech startup. A successful tech startups would give you returns that land in Kathmandu simply can not. Owning a small equity in a high tech venture beats owning real estate in Kathmandu.

The message of entrepreneurship goes hand in hand with the message of dual citizenship, and I don’t mean the watered down dual citizenship that the politicians in Kathmandu are talking about. They are trying to create a second class citizenship for the NRNs, like they already have for the Madhesis in Nepal. That is a no no.

Thursday, August 28, 2014

One Eye On Nepal

A tech startup launched partly or fully by Nepalis that might manage to raise 100K or 200K from among Nepalis in the first round, also called seed round, or friends and family round, if it does good work positions itself to raise north of a million dollars in its second round from professional investors. But it would be hard, probably impossible, to raise a million dollars from among Nepalis.

There is a flip side to that coin. Say that tech startup does well and ends up with a valuation in the 100 million dollar range in five years. Interested Nepalis either invested in the first round or did not invest at all. Because round two onwards you have to be a licensed investor to invest. You can’t come into rounds two, three or four.

Granted a tech startup is high risk behavior. Bottom line, it could fail. You could lose your money as an investor. But I can’t think of a better vehicle than a tech startup to start tapping into the robust capital markets in this city, the finance capital of the world. And unless you are a successful entrepreneur, you have no moral standing to make any meaningful contribution to economic growth in Nepal. Lecturing goes only so far, you have to be in a position to make meaningful investments. In this era of globalization and the Internet one can hope to make major contributions to Nepal’s economic growth, even if it might be 10,000 miles away.

Let’s say you invest 5K in a tech startup that goes on from a million dollar valuation in round 1 to a 100 million dollar valuation in about five years. Your 5K just grew to half a million dollars. It can be argued that is retirement money. A 500,000 dollar trust fund could generate 50K every year forever. It could be set up that way. As in, your half million stays intact. And you are netting 50K a year forever. 50K a year is not fancy, but it can be if you were to choose to spend all your money in a country like Nepal.

By that token a 10K investment would bring you a million dollars in that startup. A 20K investment would bring you two million dollars. A two million dollar trust fund would bring you 200K every year. That is rich!

What if you invested 5K each into 10 startups and only one of them hit it big? Your 50K still became half a million.

By one count there are 30 millionaire Nepalis in Russia. Shesh Ghale is in Australia. No matter which way you look, Nepalis in America look to be in a bad shape. America should have minted more Nepali millionaires than any place else. But that has not happened because not enough Nepalis in this country have gone into entrepreneurship. I happen to think that is a shame.

In Russia you could have bought factories for cheap when the Soviet Union collapsed. In Australia I guess real estate and education were key. But in the American economy high tech is the way to go. Old economy companies make money but not wild money. The beauty of software is it allows you to cash on your old economy expertise. I believe many software companies like Uber and AirBnB are yet to be born, companies that will target major inefficiencies in the old economy at large scales. Both are multi-billion dollar companies.

Clean energy is another way to get on the cutting edge. Finally Nepal might start making some big moves in a few years. I think there is room to build multinational corporations that do business globally, but also are deeply engaged in Nepal’s hydro sector.

The other day I was at a rooftop party in Manhattan and I came across this guy who had a biotech background who was doing Big Data for some big bank. He was not cashing in on his biotech background, not yet. But just like there are intersections between software and biotech, there necessarily are intersections between clean energy and software.

Risk taking is the top quality entrepreneurs share. Risk taking is more important than smarts, more important than a great work ethic. Sometimes you simply have to jump in and let the chips fall where they may. No risk, no gain.

But to the ablest of entrepreneurs, it probably does not feel like risk taking. To those watching, it might look like risk taking. But the best of entrepreneurs move with the assurance of a sleep walker. Just like I think of New York City as not part of America, but a whole different country altogether, I think entrepreneurs are a whole different species.

Monday, August 25, 2014

Nitish, Bihar, And Development

English: Flag of Janata Dal (United) of India (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Map of Bihar showing location of Bhimbandh Wildlife Sanctuary (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Lalu Prasad Yadav, at a political meeting in Kesariya, Bihar, India. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Bihar has seen the emergence of a new alliance with Nitish, Lalu and the Congress coming together. The other of course is the BJP alliance with the likes of Ram Vilas Paswan that swept the recently held national elections.

Right now the two alliances are running neck and neck. That means it will be a close fight next year in Bihar, but it is advantage BJP. Right now Sushil Modi is running ahead. In Bihar it might be 50-50. But in Uttar Pradesh it will be a total sweep by the BJP also at the state level.

Bihar is one place that could give Modi something akin to an opposition. And Modi in Gujrat was known as a man who brooks no opposition. His China model is not only economic, it is also political. He does not like the idea of having much of an opposition. And so he is going to do all he can to put Bihar into Sushil Modi's lap. Sushil Modi is not a bad candidate. He was deputy to Nitish in Bihar's spectacular success story. So he can legitimately take some credit.

If Narendra Modi could sweep Bihar as merely a prime ministerial candidate, imagine what he could do as a performing PM. And I expect him to perform.

Nitish has a tall task before him that has been made tougher by Lalu's mandal-kamandal talk. You can not beat Narendra Modi with that. The way to beat Narendra Modi is with development talk. Laloo was spectacular as Railway Minister, Nitish was the top performing Chief Minister in the country. It is not like they don't have it. But they are not talking development. That is problematic. Right now Nitish is all set to lose the elections next year.

Maybe the real story here is that his break up with the BJP was a bad move. Nitish was the first person to call Narendra Modi a future PM. That was back in 2003, I think. Looks like somewhere along the way he switched his position but has refused to play the role.

He could talk all development all the time and give Narendra Modi a run for the money. But he is not doing it. Puzzles me.

For now Narendra Modi is the man to watch. His political goal seems to be to form BJP governments in enough states that he also ends up with a majority in India’s upper house. His organization people have major plans for the North East and the South. Having a tight grip on the Hindi heartland of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh would go a long way.

All indications are Modi is on his way to giving India growth rates greater than seven per cent. He wants to double the size of the Indian economy by 2020.

Forget Bihar, Modi also has major plans for Nepal. His visit to the country was well appreciated. It felt like he truly wanted a fresh start in a relationship that has always been great but greatly unproductive. If load shedding ends in Nepal within a year or two, you will have Modi to thank for it. He means business.

I still stay curious about Nitish, though. He might have to stop crying hoarse, ke majdoori nahin mili, I did not get my wages. Like Bill Clinton would say, all elections are about the future. The people of Bihar chose to put Modi in Delhi. I am not sure that was a bad choice, economically speaking.

But now Nitish has to make a strong development case for the next five years for Bihar, or make way for Sushil Modi. It is not going to be an easy fight. The two Modis might have to show all tricks up their sleeves to rope in Nitish, once and for all.

The junior Modi is sure determined. Laloo is his usual comic self. Nitish looks a little tired, a little betrayed. He has not taken the latest political debacle too well.

Double digit growth rates are my benchmark, for Modi in Delhi, for the next Chief Minister of Bihar, and for all current and future Prime Ministers of Nepal. Delhi is a tall task, because coordinating all those states across India is no easy task. Patna? Nitish did it year after year. Nepal? Now that is the sad part.

Being in transition does not help. Not having a constitution does not help. There is also the no small matter of not having an obvious leader.