Tuesday, November 26, 2013

PR Votes

निर्वाचन आयोग
संविधान सभा सदस्य निर्वाचन, २०७०
समानुपातिक निर्वाचनको मत गणनाको प्रारम्भिक परिणाम
गणना भएको निर्वाचन क्षेत्र संख्या : १९७
Wednesday 27th of November 2013 07:54:04 AM
क्र.स.राजनैतिक दलप्राप्त मत
नेपाली काँग्रेस१७२३१५८
नेपाल कम्यूनिष्ट पार्टी (ए. मा. ले)१६४२७२३
एकीकृत नेपाल कम्युनिष्ट पार्टी (माओवादी)१००९३०६
राष्ट्रिय प्रजातन्त्र पार्टी नेपाल४४१६३१
मधेशी जनअधिकार फोरम, नेपाल(लोकतान्त्रिक)१९९७००
राष्ट्रिय प्रजातन्त्र पार्टी१८६९०५
मधेशी जनअधिकार फोरम, नेपाल१५३२०२
तराई–मधेश लोकतान्त्रिक पार्टी९४९६५
नेपाल कम्युनिष्ट पार्टी (मार्क्सवादी–लेनिनवादी)९१५७२
१०सङ्घीय समाजवादी पार्टी, नेपाल८९२४८
११सद्भावना पार्टी७४६२७
१२नेपाल कम्युनिष्ट पार्टी (संयुक्त)६५८३०
१३राष्ट्रिय जनमोर्चा५९५५०
१४नेपाल मजदुर किसान पार्टी५६७०९
१५थरुहट तराई पार्टी नेपाल४८५१३
१६राष्ट्रिय मधेश समाजवादी पार्टी४३३५०
१७राष्ट्रिय जनमुक्ति पार्टी४२१३८
१८नेपाल परिवार दल३७९७०
१९दलित जनजाति पार्टी३०४५०
२०अखण्ड नेपाल पार्टी२७३१३
२१मधेशी जनअधिकार फोरम (गणतान्त्रिक)२४२४९
२२नेपाली जनता दल२३३९६
२३तराई मधेश सदभावना पार्टी नेपाल२१८४१
२४खम्वुवान राष्ट्रिय मोर्चा, नेपाल२०८०९
२५जनजागरण पार्टी नेपाल२०२१९
२६संघीय सद्भावना पार्टी१८७७८
२७नेपाः राष्ट्रिय पार्टी१६१५४
२८समाजवादी जनता पार्टी१५०५१
२९संघीय लोकतान्त्रिक राष्ट्रिय मञ्च (थरुहट)१४१५३
३०नेपाल कम्युनिष्ट पार्टी१३३८६
३१संघीय गणतान्त्रिक समाजवादी पार्टी, नेपाल१२९३४
३२मधेश समता पार्टी नेपाल१२३०४
३३नेपाल जनता पार्टी१२०३५
३४खस समावेशी राष्ट्रिय पार्टी११८९९
३५नेपाल युवा किसान पार्टी१०६५२
३६नेपाल सद्भावना पार्टी९३४६
३७अखण्ड सुदूरपश्चिम पार्टी नेपाल८७४७
३८तराई मधेश पहाड हिमाल एकता पार्टी८६४६
३९राष्ट्रिय स्वाभिमान पार्टी नेपाल८५६७
४०मधेश तराई फोरम७८८५
४१लोक दल७२८८
४२जनता दल नेपाल६९४३
४३नेपाल लोकतान्त्रिक समाजवादी दल६७०९
४४शिवसेना नेपाल६५१९
४५मंगोल नेशनल अर्गनाइजेशन६२९६
४६जन प्रजातान्त्रिक पार्टी५९१०
४७नव नेपाल निर्माण पार्टी५७०५
४८नेपाल शान्ति क्षेत्र परिषद्५५२५
४९नेपाल कम्युनिष्ट पार्टी (मालेमा) साम्यवादी५३१३
५०जनता दल लोकतान्त्रिक पार्टी५२२३
५१संघीय लिम्बुवान राज्य परिषद५१२१
५२नेपाल गणतान्त्रिक एकता पार्टी४८६५
५३पिछडावर्ग निषाद दलित जनजाति पार्टी४८४३
५४चुरेभावर राष्ट्रिय एकता पार्टी नेपाल४५८०
५५शान्ति पार्टी नेपाल४४०२
५६राष्ट्रिय यथार्थवादी पार्टी नेपाल४०७१
५७जनता दल युनाइटेड४०५१
५८संयुक्त राष्ट्रवादी मोर्चा नेपाल३९३६
५९सहकारी पार्टी नेपाल३८४८
६०राष्ट्रिय मुक्ति आन्दोलन, नेपाल३७५९
६१नेपाल नागरिक पार्टी३५८६
६२राष्ट्रिय जनता दल नेपाल३५६७
६३विश्व सत्यवादी पार्टी३५६७
६४राष्ट्रिय मधेश बहुजन समाजवादी पार्टी३५६७
६५राष्ट्रिय शिवसेना पार्टी३५४६
६६नेपालआमा पार्टी३५०९
६७मधेशी जनअधिकार फोरम मधेश३४७९
६८बहुजन समाज पार्टी नेपाल३३३६
६९गरीब एकता समाज पार्टी, नेपाल३३१२
७०चुरेभावर लोकतान्त्रिक पार्टी३३००
७१राष्ट्रिय नागरिक पार्टी३२९३
७२राष्ट्रिय चुरेभावर पार्टी३२४१
७३नेपाल सद्भावना पार्टी (युनाइटेड)३०६३
७४हिन्दु प्रजातान्त्रिक पार्टी, नेपाल३०११
७५संघीय समावेशी समाजवादी पार्टी, नेपाल२९८०
७५संघीय समावेशी समाजवादी पार्टी, नेपाल२९८०
७६नयाँ नेपाल राष्ट्रिय पार्टी२७९०
७७नेपाल समावेशी पार्टी२७६१
७८चुरेभावर राष्ट्रिय पार्टी२७१७
७९देशभक्त समाज२७१३
८०देशभक्त पर्यावरणीय सामाजिक (देपसा) मोर्चा२६६५
८१नेपाल सद्भावना पार्टी (गजेन्द्रवादी)२५५८
८२लिबरल डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी२५५७
८३नेपाल जनसमावेशी एकता पार्टी२५५२
८४लिम्बुवान मुक्ति मोर्चा२५२९
८५जनतान्त्रिक तराई मधेश मुक्ति टाइगर्स२४६८
८६नयाँ संघीयता जनधारणा पार्टी२४६६
८७नेपाल गौरवशाली पार्टी२४३८
८८नेपाल राष्ट्रिय विकास पार्टी२४२५
८९नेपाल कम्युनिष्ट पार्टी (माले–समाजवादी)२३८४
९०जनमोर्चा नेपाल२३१५
९१राष्ट्रिय एकता पार्टी२२५५
९२नेपाल राष्ट्रसेवा दल२२३७
९३युनाइटेड ग्रीन अर्गनाइजेशन२२२०
९४नेपाल लेबर पार्टी२२१०
९५राष्ट्रवादी एकता पार्टी२१८६
९६राष्ट्रवादी जनता पार्टी२१५९
९७लिम्बुवान मुक्ति मोर्चा नेपाल२१२७
९८जनता पार्टी नेपाल२१०९
९९जनयुनिटी को–अपरेटिभ पार्टी नेपाल२०४०
१००मातृभूमि नेपाल दल१८९०
१०१संघीय विकासवादी पार्टी नेपाल१७५५
१०२नेपाल जनभावना पार्टी१७३४
१०३नेपाल राष्ट्रिय यातायात विकास दल१६२०
१०४नेपाल न्यायिक दल१६१३
१०५नेपाल समाजवादी पार्टी (लोहियावादी)१५७१
१०६लोकतान्त्रिक पार्टी–नेपाल१५३१
१०७श्रमिक जनता पार्टी–नेपाल१५००
१०८नेपाल श्रमजिवी दल१४३८
१०९राष्ट्रिय जन विकास पार्टी१४१०
११०तामाङसालिङ राष्ट्रिय जनएकता पार्टी१४१०
१११हरियाली नेपाल पार्टी१४०१
११२संयुक्त जनमोर्चा१३५७
११३राष्ट्रिय मधेश एकता पार्टी, नेपाल१३४१
११४तराई पहाड हिमाल समाज पार्टी११८७
११५सोसल रिपब्लिकन पार्टी११८७
११६लोकतान्त्रिक जनता पार्टी नेपाल११३०
११७लिग नेपाल शान्ति एकता पार्टी१११४
११८नेपाल मधेशी जनता दल (समाजवादी)१०४९
११९युवा शक्ति नेपाल पार्टी९६७
१२०ॐ सेना नेपाल९४०
१२१राष्ट्रिय लोकतान्त्रिक युवा पार्टी८१३
१२२नेपाली जनता पार्टी६१५
जम्मा
६६५३६२९
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Consensus Government For A Consensus Constitution


Sunday, November 24, 2013

Projected Seats (2)

Seats won by Nepali Congress
Seats won by Nepali Congress (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Nepali Congress 220
UML 212
Maoists 97
Kamal Thapa 34
RPP 16
Gachhedar 11
TMLP 11
Others 7
Total 574
Nominated 26

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The Federalism Question: Maps

I personally would be happy with three states - Koshi, Gandaki, Karnali - that has the existing 75 districts, where half the MPs come from the Terai. This was the first map I drew. That was in 2005. But I don't see anyone going for it. I called it a purely economic federalism. This map would be the best one for Nepal's economic progress.

One tangent would be to go to 25 districts from the current 75, but that might be even more far fetched in terms of the political reality, but I think 25 districts would be a good idea. The district governments would be stronger.



This below was the map I proposed to try and be in the same league as the Maoist-Madhesi sentiment. The NC-UML objection I believe is more to the names of the states than the map itself. What if some states are combined and all are given geographic names? So you would combine Magarat and Tamuwan to call it Gandaki, you would combine Tamang and Newa and call it Bagmati, Kirat would be called Koshi. Khasan would be Karnali, Madhesh would be called Eastern Terai, Tharuwan would be called Western Terai. Would that be more palatable? I think so.


These two maps below do a good job of exhibiting the differences between the two camps on federalism.


What I dislike about the six province model is that it is violently disrespectful of the fact that Kanchanpur, Chitwan, Sunsari, Morang and Jhapa are integral parts of the Terai. Otherwise four states in the Hills like in that map, and two in the Terai, all six with geographical names might be a good compromise map between the two camps. The 11 province model I find treacherous. It also seems to have lost the people's mandate.

A good compromise position is that the Maoists and the Madhesis should be okay with purely geographic one word names for the states, and the NC and the UML should respect the geographical integrity of the Terai. States with names Eastern Terai and Western Terai that include Kanchanpur, Chitwan, Morang and Jhapa will be as likely to produce Pahadi Chief Ministers as Madhesi ones. Why is that not a good idea? By now a lot of Madhesis live in Kathmandu Valley. I want to see a Madhesi Chief Minister of the Bagmati state some time over the next decade.

I say create six geographic states with 25 districts from districts merged from the existing 75. As in, no new geographic boundaries.

And everyone seems to have forgotten the idea of a non geographic state for Dalits. That bothers me. Proportional elections where DaMaJaMa participation is guaranteed is a must. One third for women, 10% for Dalits, all that is a must. 49% reservation for the DaMaJaMa for all new vacancies in the bureaucracy, police and the army, all good ideas. It is called state restructuring. The biggest restructuring though is downsizing. Nepal needs a parliament that is 200 strong, not 600 strong. Not even America and India have 600 strong parliaments. The bureaucracy could be half as big, the army could be 10% as big, the police could be one third as big. All that downsizing would be good for the DaMaJaMa as well the Bahun-Chhetris, because it would be best for Nepal's economy. More teachers and health workers, less soldiers. Less red tape.


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One Madhesi Party Needed



The Madhesi parties have but one option left, and that is to become one party. If they don't go in that direction, they will fare worse in the next election than they did this time around.

How to unify the parties?

Step 1: For a unification committee. That would be composed of the top leaders, Gachhedar and Bharat Bimal, Hridayesh Tripathy and Mahantha Thakur, Mahendra Raya Yadav, Upendra Yadav, Rajendra Mahto. Seven would be enough. If your party did not win a seat, you don't sit on the committee, pure and simple. Make Mahantha Thakur the Sarbamanya Neta, and Gachhedar gets to be party president. Upendra Yadav and Rajendra Mahto can be Vice President. All seven get to sit on the party Politburo.

Then form a 31 member convention committee. There bring in the top leaders of all parties that got at least 20,000 votes. Hold a convention, preferably by April 2014. All office bearers until then are ad hoc. Conduct a massive membership drive. Come up with a new name for the party, a new party flag, a new election symbol, all of which will have to be approved by the general convention.

And that would be the way to go.

The convention committee should also include Janajati leaders, perhaps also people like Ashok Rai.

If this much work is done, and a unification convention is held and one unified party is thus born, the resulting party will easily emerge as the third or fourth largest in the country and will go past 25% strength in the next parliament. That party would ride the anti-incumbency wave in the local and state elections that will likely be held in less than two years. The party would bring forth several Chief Ministers.

The unified Madhesi party should have reservations in the central committee for Dalits, Muslims and women.

Dishanirdesh with CK Lal and Minendra Rijal- November 21, 2013
ईश्वर पोखरेल,मिनेन्द्र रिजाल,अग्नी सापकोटा र सी के लालसंग-24.11.13
प्रचण्डसंग-13.11.13
कमल थापासंग-15.11.13
कांग्रेस उपसभापति रामचन्द्र पौडेलसंग विशेष अन्तर्वार्ता
नेकपा एमाले अध्यक्ष झलनाथ खनालसंगको विशेष अन्तर्वार्ता
उपेन्द्र यादवसंग-16.11.13
तराई केन्द्रीत दलहरुको भूमिका
सम्भावित प्रमुख राजनीतिक खेलाडी र स्वार्थहरु
भावी संघीय प्रदेशको स्वरुप कस्तो?
फोरम नेपालका अध्यक्ष उपेन्द्र यादवसंगको अन्तर्वार्ता
प्रचण्डसंग-13.11.13
सिपि मैनाली र मनीष सुमनसँग-26.10.13
Maoist, Madhesi parties will get more votes in Tarai
Dishanirdesh with Upendra Mahato- October 24, 2013
How The Economic Machine Works by Ray Dalio
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Three Governments In Four Years

Prachanda Portrait
Prachanda Portrait (Photo credit: izahorsky)
Total Seats: 601
Nepali Congress 214
UML 205
Maoist 94
Kamal Thapa 33
RPP 16
Gachhedar 11
TMLP 10
Others 7
Nominated 26 (Give 10 to the Baidya group)

NC (214) + Maoist (94) = 308
UML (205) + Maoist (94) + Madhesi parties (23) = 322
NC (214) + UML (205) = 419
Maoist (94) + Kamal Thapa (33) + RPP (16) + Gachhedar (11) + TMLP (10) + Others (7) + Baidya (10) + Nominated (16) = 197 + NC
Maoist (94) + Kamal Thapa (33) + RPP (16) + Gachhedar (11) + TMLP (10) + Others (7) + Baidya (10) + Nominated (16) = 197 + UML
Maoist (94) + Gachhedar (11) + TMLP (10) + Others (7) + Baidya (10) + Nominated (16) = 148 + NC
Maoist (94) + Gachhedar (11) + TMLP (10) + Others (7) + Baidya (10) + Nominated (16) = 148 + UML

Political arithmetic shows the Maoists could come into power at least six different ways. In several such scenarios the Maoists could even be leading the government. Nepal has a tendency to get a new government every year. If this parliament is to last four years and the government changes every year, the Maoists could be in power for two of the four years. That is a distinct possibility.

Many Maoist, Madhesi top guns lose in Nepal poll
Splits, hunger for power behind Madhesi parties´ poor show

चुनावी एकीकरणका लागि सद्भावनाको वार्ता टोली
The crumbling clan
3 ex-PMs, over 45 ministers contesting polls from eastern region
Many party central leaders join Mahato's SP
Mahat, Bhattarai engage in twitter war
'Intra-party rift may result in loss in Madhes'
NC to go for 7-province model with 3 in Tarai
NC to accept donation for polls only through banks
Army's Rs 288m deposits at high risk
TMDP leader found dead under mysterious circumstances

Facts and fiction
Madhesi parties drop 'One Madhes one pradesh'

एमाओवादीको दाबी- तराई बढाउने पहाडमा नगुमाउने
एमाले मतदाता केन्द्रित अभियानमा
कोइरालाको विशिष्ट 'प्रोटोकल'
कोइराला र देउवा गुट भेलामा
जनमत हाम्रै पक्षमा : कांग्रेस
Internet penetration reaches 26.1 percent
UCPN (M) ‘at low ebb’ since last CA polls
Fireside with K P Sharma Oli - August 19, 2013
Madhes hold, candidate pick ‘key to NC poll win’

Madhesi messiahs
MPRF-D to go for adjustment with TMDP
पूर्व सभासद लक्ष्मण मेहता सद्भावनामा प्रवेश
एकीकरणको नाममा राजनीतिक प्रोपोगण्डा - भरतविमल यादव (वरिष्ठ नेता मधेशी जनअधिकार फोरम, नेपाल)
अध्यक्षहरू नै एकीकरणका बाधक छन् - प्रमोद प्रसाद गुप्ता (महासचिव राष्ट्रिय मधेश समाजवादी पार्टी)
नेसपा (आ.)का कार्यवाहक अध्यक्ष सदभावनामा
मधेशको सशस्त्र आन्दोलनलाई बदनाम गराउन खोजिएको छ -रामलोचन ठाकुर( स्वामीजी) ( संघीय मधेशी मोर्चाका संयोजक तथा जनतान्त्रिक तराई मधेश मुक्ति टाइर्टसका राष्ट्रिय अध्यक्ष
राजनीतिक निकासका लागि संघीय सद्भावनाको अभियान
मधेशप्रति एमाले इमान्दार छैन : महासेठ
Yahoo Tops Google for U.S Web Traffic in July, ComScore Says
Author of fake video must apologise to Amitabh Bachchan: Narendra Modi
China accused of incursion in India's Arunachal Pradesh
Author of fake Narendra Modi video apologises to Amitabh Bachchan
रवीन्द्र अधिकारी र गगन थापासँग-17.08.13
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