Baburam Led Majority Government: Maoists + UML + Madhesi Parties

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The president has been generous in terms of how much time he has given the Maoists to try and form a national unity general consensus government. He gave about a week, then he gave them five more days. But once he announced time was up, he has given a few more days for the formation of a majority government. But a government with 70% support in the parliament would still be a majority government. It has been like giving the Maoists extra time.

The Maoists have not done a good job of addressing the concerns of the other parties on issues of the YCL, the army integration or seized properties. Of these the YCL issue is the most acute. In a democracy it is not legal to have an armed group, or a group that engages in physical violence as a matter of policy. A group that engages in physical violence - beating up included - is a mafia group, not a youth organization. That can not be tolerated.

Army integration has not been going anywhere because the political party leaders have been trying to tackle the issue in each other's living rooms. The issue has to be resolved by the parliament through its work on a Nepal Army Act 2010. Parliamentary debate and parliamentary vote will take care of all the details. You would need majority vote to decide on each element of such a bill.

As for seized properties, ownership has to be handed over to a commission until a Land Reform Bill 2011 decides on the final ownership of all that land.

But once the Maoists can assuage the others on these issues, a majority government in Baburam Bhattarai's leadership is still a possibility.

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The Maoists Must Not Return Seized Property

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Land reform is the single most important thing anyone could do to kick start the Nepali economy. While I wholeheartedly disagree with the violent methods the Maoists used over 10 years to seize land and properties across the country largely belonging to Nepali Congress leaders, returning all that property to the same wholescale and going back to the way things were is not an idea that is either practical or desirable.

A middle path has to be found.

All that land and property has to be handed over to a neutral commission until its final fate is decided by a Land Reform Bill to be passed by the national parliament once that takes shape after the country gets itself a new constitution. An interim arrangement has to be made.

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Prachanda Can't Be Prime Minister

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The last time Prachanda was Prime Minister, his government fell because he refused to understand how coalition governments work. He exhibited dictatorial tendencies. In the aftermath he has blamed everyone except himself. Ram Baran Yadav did what he was elected to do: protect the constitution.

Prachanda needed the support of all his coalition partners before he could have sacked the army chief. Even after he had accumulated that support, he needed to go through the president. He did not think it necessary to seek support from his coalition partners, and he totally bypassed the president. Those were two grave mistakes, they were two illegal actions. And that is why his government fell.

It was okay for Prachanda to have led a majority government. But according to Prachanda it was not okay for Madhav Nepal to have led a majority government. Prachanda leading a majority government was a patriotic, nationalist government. But Madhav Nepal leading a majority government was a puppet government run by India. That has been Prachanda's logic.

Someone who does not understand how coalition governments work can not lead a majority, coalition government, let alone a national consensus government. Prachanda's idea of a national consensus government is one where all parties in parliament follow the dictates of the Maoist central committee. He has not learned his lessons. He has not exhibited democratic tendencies.

And that is before the lingering issues of army integration. The idea that 19,000 Maoist soldiers with 3,000 guns will take over a country of 30 million people has always been laughable. Issuing empty threats is generally considered bad politics.

Even if the Maoists are okay with Baburam Bhattarai leading a possible national consensus government, there are no guarantees a national consensus government can be formed. But a willingness on Prachanda's part to be open to that possibility will at least send a signal that the Maoists are now better understanding how coalition governments work.

A national consensus government will necessarily have a steering committee representing all participating parties that will take all the key decisions that the government has to take.

The parties have been going on the army integration issue exactly the wrong way. A Nepal Army Bill 2010 has to be worked on by the full parliament, not the party presidents. Bypassing the parliament has been the reason the army integration issue has gone nowhere.

The bill has to go through a full debate. That bill would decide the future size and composition and modality of the future Nepal Army.

But over time I have gotten the impression Prachanda passed his SLC exams after perhaps a third attempt and he now wants a Nepali Congress prime minister.

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High School, College, New York City

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"Madisey"

I feel like both a high school and a college dropout. Emotionally I dropped out of high school a few months before the SLC exams. I had a very happy first year at college. Then an experience in institutional racism caused me to emotionally drop out.

Larry Shinn and Gail Wolford - they actively participated in an institutional hate crime - are the two most disgusting human beings I have ever had to meet in person, and they had me in jail for six months with murderers and drug lords. And that makes Charlie Rangel the Idi Amin of New York City politics. I am going to take a leak on that motherfucker's grave some day, but I have vowed to never go anywhere within 10 miles of that guy, and so. Oh well. Sometimes you cut your losses and move.

June 3 Immigration Court Date

"Madisey"

Back then I was based out of Indiana. This guy and I had a lot of friends in common, he had been a year junior to me at high school in Kathmandu. We were never close, but we always got along. We emailed, talked. He was a student. I decided to drive about four hours to go meet him in Ohio. I took him out to lunch at an Indian restaurant in Columbus. He said "madisey." The motherfucker has not meant shit to me since as a human being. Laxman Udas Pandey.

This was before I had moved to the city. But my sister had moved over to the city from Nepal after her marriage. She had been in town not even a few months. I was in town for a few days. I was still based out of Indiana. A friend of her husband, who also was my friend, two years junior to me at high school, put together a small reception party for my sister and her husband at his place on the Upper East Side. Somebody else was there - Badan Tuladhar - who also I had known a long time, the same high school circle, a guy I had always been nice to. It did not matter to him that that was a special moment for my sister. He said "madisey." That motherfucker has not meant shit to me since as a human being.

This was in Jackson Heights last year. Philadelphia guy Suman Timsina was in town. I was at this event. He said "madisey." That motherfucker has not meant shit to me since as a human being, and never will. He needed to do his growing up on his own.

The Word Madisey: Madisey Bhanne Shabda

The motherfuckers who destroyed the final three and a half years of my high school experience are right here in the Nepali circles of Queens, larger in number, their ethnic prejudices even stronger.

Reshma 2010
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Crisis Averted

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New York Times: Nepal Avoids Political Crisis With Broad Deal to Extend Parliament the Maoists agreed to extend the term of Parliament, the Constituent Assembly. In exchange, Prime Minister Madhav Kumar Nepal agreed to resign at an unspecified time in the future to “pave the way” for a new government. ..... Members of the assembly took up the measure before midnight and passed it around 1 a.m. .... Nepal is enduring a rocky transition from feudal monarchy to secular democratic republic. ..... Pinned between India and China, the world’s fastest growing major economies, Nepal needs political stability so that it can capitalize on its strategic location and jump-start its mediocre economic growth. India and China, both desirous of stability in Nepal

You can always trust them to do the right thing after they have waited to the last minute, as they did this time. The constituent assembly's term has been extended. Hopefully this will lead to a new national unity government.

The Maoists Must Vote To Extend The Term Of The Constituent Assembly
Is Federalism Necessary?
Why Not To Fear The Maoists?
A Roadmap For The Maoists
The Maoists Have Won
The Maoists: Thinking Or Dogmatic?
An Appeal To The Maoists
Prachanda's Second Big Mistake?
The Peace Process Is At Its Most Fragile
Nepal Seeing Major Political Crisis
A 10 Party Government In Baburam Bhattarai's Leadership

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The Maoists Must Vote To Extend The Term Of The Constituent Assembly By A Year

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If the constituent assembly is allowed to expire, the current government is gone, true. But that does not mean Prachanda becomes the next Prime Minister. Then the power goes to the president. The president gets to appoint a caretaker government. That caretaker government might or might not be the current government. Or we might have an executive presidency for a little while. That caretaker government would have a one point agenda, to hold elections to a new constituent assembly. In that assembly, the Maoists will very likely be a smaller party than they are today. It will still be a fragmented parliament. No party would have an outright majority. And we would be back to square one. There would still be need to put together a coalition to form a new government. There would still be need to put together working coalitions on specific items of the new constitution.

That is the best case scenario. In a bad case scenario you are looking at a worse law and order situation across the country than we already have. Already the leaders have made the mistake of not putting together all party governments at district and local levels. That vacuum leads to a weak law and order situation.

And there is a worst case scenario. A dissolution of the constituent assembly could be too much of a strain on the peace process, and we could be back to a civil war situation, only this time it might be more vicious than the last time. Honestly I don't think that is very likely.

But we don't have to see renewed civil war. An increase in political violence is a very real possibility, and that would be bad enough news.

This constituent assembly's life can not be held hostage to the fact that Prachanda wants to be Prime Minister again. Prachanda is not becoming Prime Minister again for the life of the constituent assembly. That is a foregone conclusion. If any Maoist leads a national unity government, that person is going to be Baburam Bhattarai. The Maoist central committee can decide who will lead the government if and when the Maoists have a majority of their own in the parliament. But for a national unity government all participating parties have to agree to the prime ministerial candidate. That person being Prachanda is highly unlikely. Actually there is no point in agreeing to Prachanda as the leader of that national unity government. Because Prachanda's asinine insistence that he is the only candidate shows he still does not understand how coalition governments run. That lack of understanding is what ended his last tenure as Prime Minister.

The Maoists have to agree to extend the term of the constituent assembly. And a package deal has to be reached. And a national unity government in Baburam Bhattarai's leadership has to be formed. That is the roadmap, but that roadmap starts with the term of the assembly being extended. The national unity government takes shape after that fact, not before.

And if the Maoists do not understand this, they are asking for an executive president in Ram Baran Yadav. Yadav would then lead a government that would hold elections to a new constituent assembly. That would be such a waste. The Maoists should not be so unreasonable and bring about that outcome.

Is Federalism Necessary?
Why Not To Fear The Maoists?
A Roadmap For The Maoists
The Maoists Have Won
The Maoists: Thinking Or Dogmatic?
An Appeal To The Maoists
Prachanda's Second Big Mistake?
The Peace Process Is At Its Most Fragile
Nepal Seeing Major Political Crisis
A 10 Party Government In Baburam Bhattarai's Leadership

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Is Federalism Necessary?

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The idea of federalism in the Nepali context has been part of the social justice agenda. Federalism was that tool that would be finally bring the Khas domination in the country to an end. But it can be argued federalism is not the only or the best way to bring that about. And that federalism does not address the social justice agenda of other marginalized groups like women and the Dalits, especially the Dalits.

In my last post I have been open to the idea of not having a directly elected president or prime minister for Nepal. (Why Not To Fear The Maoists?) In this post I am going to be open to the idea of not going for federalism in Nepal and instead having three layers of government: national, district, and local.

This is not me now being opposed to the idea of federalism. This is me saying I am open to other ideas that might achieve the same goals. This is me open to the thought that maybe there is no other idea that will achieve the goals that federalism would.

What could be the alternative to federalism? The 45% reservation for the DaMaJaMa in all new job openings in the government services already in place has to be further strengthened. That has to stay in place with or without federalism. That would apply to the army, to the police, and to all the government ministries.

The alternative to federalism would be to have 75 district governments in the 75 districts of the country, and have those as the 75 constituencies for elections to the national parliament using the most popular form of elections in the world.

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Why Not To Fear The Maoists?

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Nepal is scheduled to have coalition governments for a long, long time to come, just like India. That might be a good reason to not fear the Maoists. And because Nepal is not about to become a two party democracy like America, it perhaps makes sense to not have a presidential form of government in Nepal, or a directly elected Prime Minister, which is the same thing by another name.

Not only will you have coalition government for a long time, you will also have three different layers of government. One party might be leading the government at the center as a minority party. And it would be very possible that party is not leading the government in about half of the states. It will be very likely that party will not be in power in the vast majority of local governments.

And you would have periodic elections. You might have elections to the national parliament this year. Next year you might have elections for the state parliaments. The year after that you might have elections to the local governments. The party leading the national government might likely suffer during the state and local elections because it did not meet the expectations of the people and sufficient disaffection built up against them among the electorate.

And so the UML and the Nepali Congress need to stop beating the dead horse, they need to stop scaring people with the imagery of a possible Maoist takeover of state power which they do to bring the people under their fold of pre-social justice thoughts. The king used to do the same thing to try and bring people under his dictator tent.

A Roadmap For The Maoists

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