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Monday, October 24, 2022

23: Rishi

Rishi Sunak warns of risk that markets lose faith in UK economy (August 30) Former chancellor says Truss’s campaign promises could force up inflation and increase borrowing costs ...... Rishi Sunak has warned that it would be “complacent and irresponsible” to ignore the risk of markets losing confidence in the British economy .......... Sunak said his leadership rival Liz Truss had made unfunded spending commitments that he feared could force up inflation and interest rates, and increase UK borrowing costs........ said he “struggled to see” how Truss’s promises of sweeping tax cuts and help for families struggling with soaring energy costs “add up”. ....... said that market confidence had been maintained through having an independent central bank, strong institutions and a “credible fiscal trajectory”. ....... “We have more inflation-linked debt by a margin than any other G7 economy — basically more than double,” Sunak said. “Because of the structure of QE [quantitative easing], we’re also particularly much more sensitive to an upward rate cycle than we have been.” ....... "What we need to do is just get a grip of inflation now. So that’s a combination of monetary policy, it’s making sure that fiscal policy does not make the situation worse and put fuel on the fire.” ....... He warned that if the Conservative party surrendered its reputation for fiscal discipline it could destroy one of its principal advantages over Labour. ....... uggested that while he expected Johnson to continue as an MP, the outgoing prime minister should accept that his time in frontline politics is over. .......... 60 members of the government all resigned, which you’d have to remember, it’s essentially unprecedented ........ and on Tuesday party members turned up in Bentleys and Porsches to hear Sunak’s pitch. ...... He joked that one of the best parts of the race had been “all these people coming up to me and say ‘wow you’re shorter in real life’”. ........ The biggest applause came for Sunak’s stance on cultural issues: “I want to take on this leftie woke culture that wants to cancel our values, our culture and our women.” .......... Sunak said he “always” tried to give Johnson the benefit of the doubt during policy disputes. “I was there to be supportive, to try and implement what he wanted. I always had a fair shot at making my case. Resigning from being chancellor is a big deal, it’s not something you should do lightly.” .......... “I was always only going to do this on terms that worked for me, in the sense I was going to be true to myself, true to what I believe was right for the country.”

Boris Johnson says he will not stand in Tory leadership contest Move means Rishi Sunak looks almost certain to be PM ........ After cutting short a Caribbean holiday, Johnson spoke to rivals Sunak and Penny Mordaunt in an attempt to persuade them to get on board with his attempted political comeback. ........ However, Johnson has said he is not running after only making it to about 60 declared backers by Sunday evening – well short of the 100-MP threshold required to make it on to the ballot.

‘I’m deadly serious’: why film-maker Michael Moore is confident of a Democratic midterm win The Academy-award winner has been emailing a ‘daily dose of truth’ to mobilize supporters of the party to vote in November

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Sunday, October 23, 2022

23: China

“Distributed work introduces friction for managers and they have to learn to manage people as people and not manage by proximity” ....... The point isn’t that there’s something wrong with working from an office. It’s that there’s something right about working from home. ...... It will also probably take years for the pro-remote work argument to fully sink in with the people who have the power to make it the new normal. And giving workers with caregiving responsibilities the flexibility to manage their lives is a drop in the bucket in terms of what America would need to do to make this country truly family friendly. But it’s a very necessary start. .

Xi Jinping Expands His Power, Elevating Loyalists, Forcing Out Moderates A new lineup of the Communist Party elite will limit potential resistance to Mr. Xi’s agenda of bolstering security and expanding state sway over the economy. ....... He kept officials who have promoted his muscular approach in diplomacy and the military. And Mr. Xi gave no hint of preparing for eventual retirement by anointing a likely successor. ......

“China has entered a new era of maximum Xi”

......... a stronger focus on political control, economic statism, and assertive diplomacy.” ...... Mr. Xi’s progress toward his new term has been hampered this year by China’s painful economic slowdown, spreading public frustration over the country’s strict Covid rules, and rumors of internal opposition. ..... urging the party’s members to stay in lock step with him “in thought, politics and action.” ........ A statement from the meeting said Mr. Xi’s leadership was essential to “eradicating grave hazards that were present inside the party, state and military,” apparently referring to corruption and disloyalty. ...... Mr. Xi’s enhanced control suggests China will maintain its tough stance toward Washington, and expand the party’s intervention in the economy, technology and the internet. ....... “It’s all shoulders to the wheel.” ......... Mr. Xi’s new term and his leadership team will not be officially confirmed until Sunday, when the new Central Committee meets and holds a carefully controlled vote. ........ “Proximity to Xi is all that really matters now.” ....... “There are no alternative centers of power centers left in the Standing Committee, if there ever were, even symbolically.” .

Moving Backward’: In Xi’s China, Some See an Era of Total Control A decade ago, many prominent Chinese hoped that Xi Jinping would usher in openness and reform. Today, some of them believe he has created a totalitarian state. ....... As Xi Jinping was preparing to take the helm of the Chinese Communist Party a decade ago, a great number of China’s political, business and intellectual elites were hopeful that he would make their country more open, just and prosperous. ........ China is moving in the opposite direction from liberalization. Obsessed with national security, he is more focused on quashing all ideological and geopolitical challenges than on reform and opening up, the policies that brought China out of poverty. ........ He used the term “new era” 39 times in his speech, boasting of the party’s achievements under his leadership. But for some Chinese, it has been a dark era — a shift away from a system that, while authoritarian, tolerated private enterprise and some diversity in public opinion to one that now espouses a single ideology and a single leader. ......... a totalitarian state that rules with “terror and ideology,” referring to a well-known political theory. ......... Ms. Cai has been expelled from the party for such criticism. The historian, Sun Peidong, can no longer teach or publish freely. Xu Chenggang, the economist, is disappointed that the party again controls everything, including the private sector. All three are living in the United States. ............. They all believe that China, with its vast surveillance systems and punitive social control, now resembles Stalin’s Soviet Union and Mao’s China. In their view, even Russia and Iran have more space for dissent. ............ It’s a view whispered at dinner tables and in chat groups. One online nickname refers to China as “the North Korea to the west.” ............ Many Chinese people were surprised to learn that before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Russians had access to Twitter and Facebook, and that there were several independent Russian media outlets. Beijing has nearly absolute control over what information Chinese people can see and what they can say online. ......... When Mr. Xi came to power in 2012, Ms. Cai believed that the party would embark on a path of reform. But Mr. Xi soon began going after journalists, lawyers, entrepreneurs and nongovernmental organizations. ........ When Mr. Xi changed China’s Constitution in 2018 so he could serve more than two terms as president, Ms. Cai lost hope. “I realized that the party wasn’t able to change,” she said. “If the party couldn’t change, the country wouldn’t be able to change.” ....... In an online hangout with friends back in China, she criticized the party as a “political zombie” and Mr. Xi as a “mafia ringleader.” ......... In 2018, after spending two years in the United States, she went back to Fudan, to a changed country and a changed classroom........ She found that class discussions had become less candid, and she said so on the social media platform Weibo. One morning, she found her office door plastered with printouts of her social media posts, along with threats to post them in other places on campus. ........ Ms. Sun, now an associate professor of history at Cornell University, said she still had nightmares about her experience. “The teeth of totalitarianism were inching toward me,” she said in an interview. “If I still wanted to do the kind of research I liked, I would have to leave China.” .

The Weakness of Xi Jinping How Hubris and Paranoia Threaten China’s Future .



Not-So-Great Britain’s Conservative Crackup She wilted faster than The Daily Star head of lettuce gussied up to look like her. ........ Liz squared. The longest-reigning monarch meets the shortest-serving prime minister. It was such a swift fall that Truss was anointed by a queen and resigned to a king. ...... Many consider the third woman to dwell at No. 10 incompetent and hopeless, perhaps the worst P.M. in history. ....... She was a bad communicator, a poor speaker and weak on camera. She didn’t understand that you couldn’t simply borrow money from the future. She managed to be a radical ideologue and a lightweight at the same time. ....... “It’s incredibly funny if you’re not English,” Henry Porter, a British writer, told me. “It’s humiliating if you are. Boris is Boris Karloff, the monster who comes alive again, after you thought he was buried.” ....... The outcome was foggy, as Johnson rushed back from a vacation in the Caribbean. In some vote estimates, Sunak was ahead but Johnson was winning support, as well. James Duddridge, an M.P. who backs Johnson, told the British press: “I’ve been in contact with the boss via WhatsApp. He’s going to fly back. He said: ‘I’m flying back, Dudders, we are going to do this. I’m up for it.’” ......... .



Tory lawmakers are split. Half are morally outraged by Boris, and the rest are worried that without the riveting spectacle of Boris, they’ll lose their seats in two years. ...... Many Tories believe, amid rising electric bills, power shortages and inflation, that Sunak — whose wealthy wife was accused of avoiding paying 20 million pounds in taxes until the press upbraided her — would be wiped out by Labour in two years. ........British conservatives are becoming as shameless as American conservatives, willing to put up with any outrage to keep their posh offices and perks. The “good chap” principle in England, the tradition that sometimes you have to leave office for the greater good, seems passé.

Liz Truss Believed in Markets, but the Markets Did Not Believe in Her The world has just witnessed one of the most extraordinary political immolations of recent times. Animated by faith in a fantasy version of the free market, Prime Minister Liz Truss of Britain set off a sequence of events that has forced her to fire her chancellor of the Exchequer, Kwasi Kwarteng, and led her to the brink of being ousted by her own party. ........ The stakes of the crisis were global size. Strangest of all, this was done purposefully, in a reckless act of deliberate policy, better thought of as a gesture of political conviction. .......... capitalist revolutionaries Ms. Truss and Mr. Kwarteng laid low by the mechanisms of capitalism itself. Ms. Truss and Mr. Kwarteng may be the last of the Thatcherites, defeated by the very system they believed they were acting in fidelity to........ Many of Thatcher’s true believers attributed the derailing of her project to the rise of the European Union, which in their view tangled the homeland of classical liberalism in the red tape of European law. .......... Losing the leadership in 1990, Thatcher continued to grumble from the backbenches, growing increasingly hostile to the European Union and finding comfort with a surly group of Tory hard-liners. These Thatcherites, known collectively as the ultras, gained fresh blood in the 2010s as a group of Gen Xers too young to experience Thatcherism in its insurgent early years — including the former home secretary Priti Patel, the former foreign secretary Dominic Raab, the former minister of state for universities Chris Skidmore, Mr. Kwarteng and Ms. Truss — attempted to reboot her ideology for the new millennium. ........... They followed their idol not only in her antagonism to organized labor but also in her less-known fascination with Asian capitalism. In 2012’s “Britannia Unchained,” a book co-written by the group that remains a Rosetta Stone for the policy surprises of the last month, they slammed the Britons for their eroded work ethic and “culture of excuses” and the “cosseted” public sector unions. They praised China, South Korea, Singapore and Hong Kong. “The average Singaporean works two hours and 20 minutes a day longer than the average Brit,” they observed — as if longer working days were something to aspire to. “Britannia Unchained” expressed a desire to go back to the future by restoring Victorian values of hard work, self-improvement and bootstrapping. ......... “there remains a sense in which many of Britain’s problems lie in the sphere of cultural values and mind-set.” ......... As Thatcher herself put it, “Economics are the method; the object is to change the heart and soul.” ........ Ms. Truss and Mr. Kwarteng seemed to have believed that by patching together all of the most radical policies of Thatcherism (while conveniently dropping the need for spending cuts), they would be incanting a kind of magic spell, an “Open sesame” for “global Britain.” This was their Reagan moment, their moment when, as their favorite metaphors put it, a primordial repressed force would be “unchained,” “unleashed” or “unshackled.” ............ But as a leap of faith, it broke the diver’s neck. ..........

This was “Reaganism without the dollar.”

Without the confidence afforded to the global reserve currency, the pound went into free fall.

Liz Truss in the Libertarian Wilderness When the tax cuts were announced, many conservatives compared Truss’s policies — favorably — to those of Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher. When Reagan pushed through unfunded tax cuts, they also raised interest rates — but they drove the dollar up, not down. Thatcher similarly presided over a strong pound. Why was this time different? ....... the bank did intervene to limit what it considered the danger of a sort of death spiral driven by forced fire sales of long-term bonds........ Politics in the modern West tends to be more or less two-dimensional. One dimension is the left-right divide in economic policy, between those who favor high taxes on the rich and large social benefits and those who want low taxes and small government. The other dimension is the divide over social issues, between those who favor policies promoting racial equality and gay rights and those who bitterly oppose anything they consider “woke.” ........ most voters like government benefits, a lot. Opposition to social spending comes mainly from voters who believe that spending goes to the wrong people — people who don’t look like them. ........ a large bloc of voters who want the nastiness of MAGA without the right-wing economics.



How Atlanta Remade Hip-Hop In a regional game, rap’s Southern contingent has come to dominate its counterparts in New York and L.A. ......... the complex intersections between music, artists, the streets’ illicit economies, the prison system, racism, poverty and class dynamics in Atlanta, a city that’s branded from the block to the boardroom by an ethos of Black Excellence.



Rishi Sunak Gains Edge as Boris Johnson Drops Out of Race to Be Next U.K. Prime Minister Former U.K. Chancellor looks set to become Britain’s next prime minister as main rival drops bid

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23: Off Ramp

Off Ramp

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मेलम्चीको विकल्पमा ३ खोलाको पानी ल्याउन अध्ययन भइरहेको छ : खानेपानी मन्त्री
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Wednesday, October 19, 2022

19: Liz Truss



Reel: What does your faith mean to you?



Elon Musk Foments More Geopolitical Controversy With Ukraine Internet Dispute The world’s richest man, whose Starlink internet service is critical to the Ukrainian Army, said he could not “indefinitely” fund the system’s use in Ukraine. ....... Musk said his company could not “indefinitely” fund Ukraine’s use of Starlink, which has become crucial for the Ukrainian Army’s communication as it advances into territory occupied by Russia and defends against continued Russian attacks. ........ About 20,000 Starlink terminals, which were designed to work with satellites orbiting in space to provide online access, have been delivered to Ukraine since Russia’s invasion in February. Mr. Musk, who did not mention the Pentagon, talked about the difficulties of funding the service. ........

Musk, 51, who has become an unlikely provocateur in international geopolitics.

........... Last week, Mr. Musk drew a fierce rebuke from Ukrainian officials for proposing a peace plan — which included ceding territory to Russia — to end the war. He also suggested in an interview with The Financial Times that tensions between China and Taiwan could be resolved by handing over some control of Taiwan to Beijing. .

Crude Comments From Europe’s Top Diplomat Point to Bigger Problems Josep Borrell Fontelles said Europe was “a garden,” and the world “a jungle,” triggering charges of neocolonialism and racism just as the E.U. tries to drum up support in the developing world. ......... The top European Union diplomat calling the world “a jungle” and Europe “a garden” at risk of being overrun isn’t helping. ......... “Yes, Europe is a garden.” Mr. Borrell told aspiring European diplomats in the Belgian city of Bruges. “We have built a garden. Everything works. It is the best combination of political freedom, economic prosperity and social cohesion that the humankind has been able to build — the three things together.” ........ “Most of the rest of the world is a jungle, and the jungle could invade the garden,” he added, calling the young European diplomats “gardeners” who “have to go to the jungle. Europeans have to be much more engaged with the rest of the world. Otherwise, the rest of the world will invade us, by different ways and means.” ....... He said that Europe was a privileged place to live and that his message to the aspiring diplomats was to cultivate relationships outside it, because it cannot be “an island in the world away from what was going on elsewhere.” ....... Among the first to seize on it was the Kremlin’s spokeswoman, Maria Zakharova. ........ “To continue the analogy, the European gardener is in a vegetative state,” she quipped on Telegram. “And now seriously. The ‘garden’ was built by Europe due to the barbaric attitude to the plundering of the ‘jungle.’ Borrell could not say it better: the most prosperous system created in Europe was nourished by its roots from the colonies, which it ruthlessly oppressed,” she added. ........ “This abhorrent, colonial language is unacceptable from any representative of our union, least of all our highest-ranking diplomat,” said Alice Bah Kuhnke, a prominent Swedish member of the European Parliament with the Green Party. ......... Experts also said that alienating nations in the developing world could undermine the European Union’s efforts to bolster global partnerships in its search for its own independent place in the global power structure, as well as drum up support for Ukraine against Russia. ......... “It upsets at the most profound level countries in the rest of the world, because of the history of colonialism.” ......... In United Nations General Assembly votes, a bellwether for how well Western allies are doing against Russia’s own diplomatic efforts, the European Union and the United States have struggled to rally support from African and Asian countries they would normally call allies. High-profile partners like South Africa and India have chosen to abstain on key votes ......... Seasoned E.U. observers point out that Mr. Borrell is not an outlier when it comes to the dominant thinking at the heart of the bloc’s policy machinery. ........ the garden-jungle analogy used by Mr. Borrell was first employed by the prominent American neoconservative scholar Robert Kagan. .

The state of the energy transition In the past decade, we finally got going. Over the next three, we need to go much further, much faster. I still believe we can avoid a climate disaster—if we devote the next generation to mobilizing the largest crisis response in human history. ........ .

Liz Truss Is Finished For 40 days, Prime Minister Liz Truss of Britain has ridden a roller coaster of ridicule. ........ Her “mini budget,” on which she hung her free-market credentials, was a disaster: Bond yields rocketed, the pound tanked, and the markets, far from gratified, were distinctly upset. To mitigate the damage, she reversed a tax cut for high earners — and was rewarded with more mockery. At the Conservative Party conference, protesters played loud clown music, and the police refused to intervene, as sure a sign of a failing administration in Britain as the storming of the Winter Palace in Russia. ........... the polls, which put Labour 33 points ahead of the Conservatives and Ms. Truss’s approval rating at minus 47 ....... Ms. Truss may limp on, but she is without power. For all intents and purposes, her prime ministership is finished. ........ Behind this monumental failure stalks Boris Johnson, the most important ghost in British politics. ......... Ms. Truss was Mr. Johnson’s departing gift, a human land mine to level the ground for his possible return. ......... We are far from seriousness, data and hope. The choice of Brexit, the nightmare we are slowly awakening to, proves it. ........... Ms. Truss certainly invited opprobrium with her recklessness: Only 6 percent of the country supports her tax cuts, while Elizabeth II preached unity and love. That is the kind of authoritarianism the British like, the velvet kind. In comparison, Ms. Truss looked tinny and pitiful. She could be dismissed. ...... After 12 years in power, exhausted by Brexit, the pandemic and growing factionalism, they find themselves at the mercy of Mr. Johnson’s ambition, their own inadequacy and their members’ hunger for culling the state against the country’s wishes. Their choice of Ms. Truss was part error, part final roll of a doomsday cult. Britain, contrary to stereotype, is a kaleidoscope of opinion, not two resolutely opposed factions. The majority accepted Conservative rule for more than a decade. But Ms. Truss, bringer of market chaos and international condemnation, is where that consent ends. ......... In time, Britain may free itself of Mr. Johnson’s spell and Ms. Truss’s unreason — and choose leaders who deal in facts, not fantasies, and think of the country, not themselves. We may say at last: Enough of post-truth and extremism and drinking the dregs of empire.

Britain’s New Prime Minister Is Still in Thrall to the Empire In a campaign built around a belief in the miraculous power of tax cuts, Ms. Truss presented herself as the economic savior of a country heading into a winter of crisis. In the face of sky-high inflation and widespread economic misery, it’s a fantastical proposition. ......... in an era of decolonization, he sketched out a route for Britain to maintain its global dominance. Fashioned in the dying of the imperial light, that roster of policies — preferential terms of global trade achieved through hard-line anti-migrant policies, shrinking the state, undermining organized labor and fostering finance — forms the basis of Ms. Truss’s politics today. The British Empire may have all but ended 60 years ago, but the country’s next prime minister is still in thrall to its legacy. ......... borders for the people of the empire but not for the wealth of the empire. ......... it is on the terrain of the economy where her absorption in zombie imperial thinking is most striking. ........ In 2012, Ms. Truss announced herself on the political scene as a co-author of a book, tellingly titled “Britannia Unchained,” that argued that Britain’s diminished position globally was the result of an overextended welfare state raising generations of mollycoddled workers, derided as “the worst idlers in the world.” While she likes to wrap herself in the Union Jack, her position a decade on appears to be the same. British workers, she said in a recent leaked recording, lacked the “skill and application” of their foreign counterparts and needed to work harder. ........... tax cuts have been consistently shown to increase inequality while having a negligible effect on growth or unemployment.



Why Vladimir Putin Is Likely to Be Disappointed Against a turning tide, Vladimir Putin is resorting to desperate measures. ......... Last week, in retaliation for an attack on the Kerch Strait Bridge, Russia’s main route to Crimea, the Kremlin launched over 100 long-range missiles into Ukraine, killing more than three dozen civilians and striking 30 percent of Ukrainian energy facilities. .......... Four factors have combined to steadily diminish Russia’s battlefield prospects: the demands of a high-intensity war on an army unprepared to wage it; early and severe losses to its ground, airborne and special forces; the Ukrainians’ resilience and will to fight; and Western support for Ukraine. .......... Even before the majority of new troops have been deployed, there are anecdotes of mobilized forces being killed, being captured and deserting. There are, to put it mildly, obvious downsides to sending unprepared and questionably led conscripts to a combat zone. ......... Already there are signs of discipline problems among mobilized soldiers in Russian garrisons. ......... The Russian military leadership is unlikely to know with confidence how this undisciplined composite force will react when confronted with cold, exhausting combat conditions or rumors of Ukrainian assaults. Recent experience suggests these troops might abandon their positions and equipment in panic, as demoralized forces did in the Kharkiv region in September. ........... Right now, Mr. Putin seems to have two immediate goals: to sustain control of as much of the occupied Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions as he can (with Russia’s desired boundaries not yet defined); and to freeze the front line, establishing a frontier Ukrainian forces cannot broach, possibly sealed by a cease-fire. .......... as the Ukrainians’ continued headway in the south suggests, it’s far from clear that Russia will be able to attain either aim. ........ In that case, Mr. Putin could lash out more broadly against Ukraine. The attacks of the past week — particularly striking critical civilian infrastructure — could be expanded across Ukraine if missile supplies hold out, while Russia could directly target the Ukrainian leadership with strikes or special operations. .......... To inflict domestic costs on Kyiv’s supporters, Russia could also conduct cyberattacks against Europe or the United States, targeting critical infrastructure like energy, transportation and communications systems. The war then would no longer be confined to the borders of Ukraine. ......... It’s worth recalling that, before breaking the nuclear taboo, Russia has other means available to escalate.

I’ve Studied 13 Days of the Cuban Missile Crisis. This Is What I See When I Look at Putin. For six decades, the Cuban missile crisis has been viewed as the defining confrontation of the modern age, the world’s closest brush with nuclear annihilation. The war in Ukraine presents perils of at least equal magnitude, particularly now that Vladimir Putin has backed himself into a corner by declaring large chunks of neighboring Ukraine as belonging to Russia “forever.” ............ As I discovered when I assembled a minute-by-minute chronology of the most dangerous phase of the crisis, there were times when both leaders were unaware of developments on the battlefield that assumed a logic and momentum of their own.

The state of the energy transition
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19: Rishi Sunak



डा. प्रसन्न जो घरदैलोको क्रममा गर्छन् बिरामीको चेकजाँच
खर्बको ठेक्का लगाएर एक अर्ब कमिशन असुल्दै मन्त्री राई ! काम सम्पन्न भएपछि बिलको पेमेन्ट हुँदा भने ५ देखि १० प्रतिशतसम्म कमिशन दिने गरेको बताइन्छ ।
आफ्नो अन्तर्आत्माको आवाज सुनेर मतदाताले मतदान गर्नुपर्छ : ई.सत्यनारायण साह
‘मधेशको सम्मानका लागि जनमत पार्टी एक्लै उभिएको छ’

निर्वाचन कसले जित्छ? दलहरूले यस पालि प्रत्यक्षतर्फको उम्मेदवार छनोटको मापदण्ड तय गर्दा जित्न सक्नेलाई सिफारिस गर्नका लागि आफ्ना तल्ला निकायहरूलाई निर्देशन दिएका थिए । आखिर यो जित्न सक्ने भनेको के हो ? ........ पहिलो, दलित समुदायका उम्मेदवारहरूले अपवादबाहेक निर्वाचन जित्दा रहेनछन् । दोस्रो, अत्यन्त थोरै सङ्ख्याका महिलाहरू मात्र विजयी हुने रहेछन् । यी दुवै कुरा पञ्चायतकाल र प्रजातान्त्रिक कालमा उस्तै रहेको पाइयो भने, तराई र पहाडका जिल्लाबीच पनि भिन्नता पाइएन । तेस्रो, मधेशी नेताहरूले मधेशी समुदायको बाहुल्य भएका जिल्लाहरूबाट मात्र निर्वाचन जित्दा रहेछन् । थारू, मुसलमान र धेरै हदसम्म जनजाति समुदायका नेताहरूले तत्तत् क्षेत्रबाट मात्र जित हासिल गर्दा रहेछन् जहाँ यिनै समुदायको जनसाङ्ख्यिक बाहुल्य रहेको हुन्छ । चौथो, बाहुन–क्षत्री समुदायका पुरुष नेताहरूले हिमाल, पहाड, तराईका जुनै जिल्लाबाट पनि निर्वाचन जित्ने गरेका प्रशस्तै उदाहरण छन् । पाँचौं, पञ्चायतकालभरि राष्ट्रिय पञ्चायतमा क्षत्री र ठकुरीहरूको प्रतिनिधित्व अधिक थियो भने, प्रजातान्त्रिक काल (२०४८, २०५१ र २०५६ साल) मा भएका निर्वाचनहरूमा बाहुनको प्रतिनिधित्व बढी थियो । छैटौं, २००४ सालदेखि २०५६ सालसम्मका विधायिका (राष्ट्रिय पञ्चायत र प्रतिनिधिसभा) मा सामुदायिक प्रतिनिधित्वको कोणबाट हेर्दा लगभग दुईतिहाइ (६५ प्रतिशत) खस–आर्य र बाँकी एकतिहाइमा जनजाति र मधेशीको प्रतिनिधित्व हुने गर्थ्यो । सातौं, २०६४ सालमा समानुपातिक निर्वाचन प्रणाली अपनाइएपछि पहिलो पटक पहिलो संविधानसभामा एकतिहाइ मधेशी र एकतिहाइ जनजाति प्रतिनिधित्व भएको थियो । साथै, नेपालको इतिहासमा पहिलो पटक खस–आर्यको प्रतिनिधित्व घटेर एकतिहाइमा समेटिएको थियो । खासमा यो सबै समुदायको जनसङ्ख्याको अनुपातसँग ठ्याक्कै मिल्दोजुल्दो थियो । आठौं, समानुपातिक निर्वाचन प्रणालीकै कारण पहिलो संविधानसभामा दलित समुदायका ५१ जना र लगभग २ सय महिलाको प्रतिनिधित्व सम्भव भएको थियो । नवौं, तथ्याङ्कको मसिनो विश्लेषणले भन्छ— पञ्चायतकालदेखि प्रजातान्त्रिक कालसम्म तराई मधेशको राजनीतिमा यादव, वैश्य र थारू समुदायका थोरै उम्मेदवारले निर्वाचन जित्थे भने, पहाडे समुदाय र मधेशी उच्च जातका अधिकांश उम्मेदवारहरूले जित्नुका साथै राजनीतिमा नियन्त्रण पनि कायम राखेका थिए । दसौं, २०६४ सालको निर्वाचनयता राजनीतिक समीकरणमा केही फेरबदल भएको छ । कोर मधेश क्षेत्रमा (अहिलेको मधेश प्रदेशमा) निर्वाचन जित्ने पहाडे समुदायका उम्मेदवारहरूको सङ्ख्या घटेको छ । मधेशी उच्च जातका मानिसहरूको वर्चस्व कम भएको छ । यादव र वैश्य समुदायको प्रतिनिधित्व बढ्नुका साथै तिनले राजनीतिमा नियन्त्रणकारी भूमिका पाउँदै गएका छन् । तर, अहिले पनि दलितले निर्वाचन जित्न असम्भवप्रायः छ । राजनीतिमा महिलाको पहुँच बढेको देखिए पनि सीमित सम्भ्रान्त परिवारका महिलाहरूले मात्र त्यसको फाइदा लिन सकेका छन् । मुसलमान समुदायको प्रतिनिधित्व अत्यन्त सीमित छ । ......... ग्रामीण समाजमा आम मानिसले कसैलाई किन मत दिन्छन् भने सन्दर्भमा भारतीय राजनीतिशास्त्री भी. लालनीको तर्क मधेशी समाजमा ठ्याक्कै लागू हुँदो रहेछ । लालनीले भारतको ग्रामीण समाजले कसलाई र केका आधारमा नेता छनोट गर्छन् भन्ने विषयमा विद्यावारिधि गरेर पुस्तक प्रकाशन गरेका छन्, जसमा उनले भारतको ग्रामीण समाजलाई मूलतः सामन्ती समाज भनेका छन् । त्यहाँ मानिसहरूबीचको सम्बन्ध बराबरीमा होइन, बरु संरक्षक र संरक्षित (प्याट्रोन–क्लाइन्ट) प्रकारको हुन्छ भन्दै त्यस्तो समाजमा आम मानिसले मूलतः पाँच आधारमा मतदान गर्ने गरेको उनको तर्क छ । पहिलो, आम मानिसले संरक्षक व्यक्तिलाई भोट दिन बढी रुचाउँछन् जो स्वाभाविक रूपमा धनी परिवारका हुन्छन् । दोस्रो, उच्च जातका मानिसलाई । तेस्रो, स्थानीय अदालत र प्रहरी कार्यालयहरूमा सम्पर्क भएका वा काम गराउन सक्नेलाई । चौथो, आफ्नो घरमा हुने विवाह, व्रतबन्ध, जन्म र मृत्युजस्ता पारिवारिक कार्यक्रमहरूमा उपस्थित हुने व्यक्तिलाई । र पाँचौं, स्थानीय मिडियामा देखिइरहने अनुहारलाई । ..........

मधेशमा नेताले सबैभन्दा बढी गर्नुपर्ने काम भनेकै स्थानीय प्रहरी–प्रशासनमा भनसुनको हुँदो रहेछ ।

प्रहरी–प्रशासनमा भनसुन गर्न सक्ने क्षमता दुई प्रकारका मानिसमा बढी हुँदो रहेछ । पहिलो, केन्द्रीय सत्तामा पहुँच भएको जसमा कांग्रेस वा एमालेका नेताहरू पर्छन् । दोस्रो, बाहुन–क्षत्री समुदायका मानिसहरू जसको प्रहरी–प्रशासनमा सामाजिक कारणले राम्रो सम्बन्ध रहेको हुन्छ । मधेशमा यी दुई कारणले नेताहरूको प्रभाव जताततै देख्न सकिन्छ । ............ भारतमा निर्वाचन जित्नलाई विभिन्न छ पक्षको बराबर भूमिका हुन्छ । पहिलो, उम्मेदवारको जात र धर्म । दोस्रो, पारिवारिक पृष्ठभूमि । तेस्रो, स्थानीय सार्वजनिक एवं जनकल्याणका कार्यमा ती परिवारको योगदान । चौथो, सत्तामा रहँदाका बेला उसको पार्टीले महँगी नियन्त्रणमा खेलेको भूमिका । पाँचौं, उम्मेदवार आफैं वा उसको पार्टी भ्रष्टाचारमा मुछिएको छ वा छैन । र छैटौं, सत्तामा रहँदा उम्मेदवार वा उसको पार्टीले विकास–निर्माण कस्तो गरेको थियो । यी पक्षहरूलाई जाँचको विषयजस्तो मान्ने हो भने सबैमा कम्तीमा उत्तीर्णांक ल्याउनेले मात्र निर्वाचन जित्ने गरेको उनको तर्क छ । ........... सन् १९८० यताका विभिन्न मुख्यमन्त्रीका कार्यकालको तुलनात्मक अध्ययन गर्दा आफ्नो कार्यकालमा आठ प्रतिशतभन्दा बढी वृद्धिदर कायम गर्न सफल भएका २७ मुख्यमन्त्रीमध्ये आधाले लगत्तैको निर्वाचन हारेको तथ्याङ्क पनि उनी बारम्बार उल्लेख गर्छन् । उनको तर्क छ— केवल विकास गरेकै कारण निर्वाचन जित्न नसकिने रहेछ । ........ अहिले मधेशको राजनीतिमा डा. सीके राउतको जस्तो चर्चा छ, राष्ट्रिय राजनीतिमा डा. स्वर्णिम वाग्ले, डा. विश्व पौडेलको पनि उस्तै चर्चा छ । विगत तीन दशकदेखि डा. बाबुराम भट्टराई, डा. रामशरण महतहरू चर्चित रहिरहनुमा अन्य कुराका साथै उहाँहरूको पीएचडी डिग्री पनि एउटा महत्त्वपूर्ण पक्ष रहिआएको छ । पञ्चायतकालमा प्रकाशचन्द्र लोहनी, पशुपति राणा, यादवप्रसाद पन्त आदि त्यस्तै नेता हुन् जो डिग्री र पढेका विश्वविद्यालयका कारण पनि चर्चामा हुन्थे, छन् । ........ सामाजिक पुँजी, सांस्कृतिक पुँजी र साङ्केतिक पुँजी । ...... सामाजिक पुँजीको अर्थ समाजमा व्यक्तिको जनसम्पर्कलाई लिइन्छ । सांस्कृतिक पुँजी भनेको निजी र सार्वजनिक जीवनमा गर्ने व्यवहार, कुराकानी, अन्तर्वार्तामा प्रस्तुति; पोसाक लगाउने तौरतरिका; राजनीतिक खेलको नियम बुझ्ने क्षमताजस्ता संस्कारगत पक्षहरूलाई लिइन्छ । साङ्केतिक पुँजी व्यक्तिविशेषको मानपदवी, पदप्रतिष्ठा र शिक्षादीक्षा, पढेको विश्वविद्यालयजस्ता कुराहरूसँग जोडिएको हुन्छ । यदि कुनै व्यक्ति कुनै ठूलो पदमा छ, धेरै पढेलेखेको छ वा विदेशको विख्यात शिक्षालयमा पढेको छ भने उसको साङ्केतिक पुँजी बलियो मानिन्छ । .......... विश्वासको कालखण्ड, आक्रोशको कालखण्ड र सुझबुझको कालखण्ड । ........ सन् २००२ यता भारतीय मतदाताहरूले बडो सुझबुझका साथ मतदान गर्न थालेका छन् । राम्रो काम गरेको सत्तापक्षले निरन्तरता पाउँछ भने कमजोर प्रदर्शन गर्ने सरकार फेरिन्छ । सुझबुझको यो कालखण्डमा राष्ट्रिय लहरभन्दा पनि प्रान्तीय सरकारहरूको प्रदर्शनका आधारमा गठबन्धनले मत पाउने गरेको रोयको तर्क छ ।

कस्तो सहर बनाउने बालेन? नेवाः सभ्यताको मर्म, सभ्यता अनुसार बनेका बस्ती र सहरको विशिष्टतालाई बेवास्ता गर्दै नवधनाढ्य गाडीवाला, गाडीका व्यापारी र लगानीकर्ता बैंक समूहको हित साधन गर्ने गरी भएको सडक विस्तारले हाम्रा नीति–निर्माताहरूको सांस्कृतिक दरिद्रता र हेपाहापनलाई नै उजागर गरेको छ ।

भारतीय राष्ट्रिय कांग्रेसको अध्यक्षमा मल्लिकार्जुन खड्गे निर्वाचित दलित समुदायका खड्गे कर्नाटका राज्यका बासिन्दा हुन् । ८० वर्षका खड्गे ...... उनले पार्टीलाई पुनर्संरचना गर्ने बताएका छन् । केन्द्रमा कम्तीमा आधा नेताहरू ५० वर्षभन्दा कम उमेरका हुने पनि बताएका छन् ।
नारायणकाजीको टिप्पणी- 'कहिलेकाहीँ कांग्रेस एउटा हैन, ३ पार्टीजस्तो लाग्छ'
पञ्चायतदेखि गणतन्त्रसम्म सूर्यबहादुर कसरी सर्वस्वीकार्य? ‘मेरा नौ दशक : पाँच व्यवस्था, पाँच राजा र पाँचपटक प्रधानमन्त्री’ ........ त्यहाँ उपस्थित प्रधानमन्त्री शेरबहादुर देउवाले मात्र स्वर्गीय थापाको प्रशंसा गरेनन्, माओवादी अध्यक्ष पुष्पकमल दाहाल प्रचण्डले पछिल्लोपटक राजनीतिक अभिभावकको अनुभूति गरेको सुनाउन भ्याए। ....... पूर्वप्रधानमन्त्री डा. बाबुराम भट्टराईले संविधान निर्माण प्रक्रियाको पछिल्लो कालखण्डमा संवाद र सहमतिका सन्दर्भमा थापालाई राजनीतिक गुरु नै मानेको बताए। पूर्वप्रधानमन्त्री माधवकुमार नेपाल र झलनाथ खनालले पनि थापाको मुक्तकण्ठले प्रशंसा गरे। पञ्चायतदेखि गणतन्त्रसम्म नेपाली राजनीतिको शीर्ष स्थानमा रहेका र सधैँ परिवर्तनलाई आत्मसात् गरेका, उदारवादी सोचका हिमायती थापालाई उनको निधनपछि मात्र होइन, उनी जीवित छँदा पनि राजनीतिक वृत्तले आत्मसात् गरेको थियो । उनी यस्ता सर्वस्वीकार्य राजनीतिक पात्र थिए, जसको निमन्त्रणामा राजनीतिका चार दिशातिर फर्केका दलका नेता सहज रूपमा मालीगाउँ पुग्थे र राजनीतिक दीक्षा लिन्थे। ........ डेढ दशक लगाएर तयार भएको पुस्तक उनका छोरा सुनीलबहादुर थापा, नाति सिद्धार्थ थापाको अनवरत जोडबलमा प्रकाशित भएको छ। ...... किताब लेखनमा संलग्न भएका लेखकले ०६५ बाट करिब चार वर्ष तीन सय १० घन्टा कुराकानी गरी पुस्तक तयार भएको थियो। ....... थापाले राजा महेन्द्र, वीरेन्द्र र ज्ञानेन्द्रको कार्यकालमा पाँचपटक प्रधानमन्त्री बन्ने अवसर पाए। उनले दोस्रोपटक निर्वाचित संविधानसभाको पनि ज्येष्ठ सदस्यका हैसियतले अध्यक्षता गर्न भ्याए। उनी राप्रपाको संस्थापक नेता थिए। पञ्चायतकालमा पनि उदार छवि बनाएका थिए। उनी जीवनको आखिरीसम्म भारतीय संस्थापन पक्षले विश्वास गरेका शीर्ष नेपाली नेता थिए। जानकारहरूका अनुसार राजा महेन्द्रले ‘देशलाई अप्ठेरो पर्दा सूर्यबहादुरलाई सम्झिनु’ भनी छोरानातिलाई भनेका थिए जसका कारण राजा वीरेन्द्र र ज्ञानेन्द्रको संकटको अवस्थामा उनको साथ लिएका थिए। तर, पञ्चायतमा राजा वीरेन्द्रले उनलाई जेलमा राखेका थिए भने ०६१ माघ १९ को सक्रिय कदमपछि राजा ज्ञानेन्द्रले थापालाई घरमै नजरबन्दमा राखेका थिए। ........ ०१७ सालमा राजाले निर्दलीय व्यवस्था लागू गरेपछिको मन्त्रिपरिषदमा उनी मन्त्री बनाइए। किताबमा थापाले नै राजा महेन्द्रको शाही सम्बोधन मस्यौदा गरेर बुझाएको उल्लेख छ। पञ्चायत र बहुदल समयमा थापा सत्तामा जाने र बाहिरिने क्रम चलिरह्यो। ०३६ को जनमतसंग्रहमा निर्दललाई विजयी गराउने उद्देश्यका लागि राजा वीरेन्द्रले उनलाई प्रधानमन्त्री बनाएका थिए। थापाले आफ्नो मिसन पूरा गरेका थिए। त्यतिवेला निर्दलीय पञ्चायत जिताउने उनको अभियानमा स्वर्गीय नेता गजेन्द्रनारायण सिंह तथा हालका पूर्वमन्त्रीहरू हृदयेश त्रिपाठी, राजेन्द्र महतोलगायतले साथ दिएका थिए। .......... ०४६ मा आन्दोलन सुरु भएपछि फागुन २४ गते थापाले कांग्रेस र वाममोर्चासँग सरकारले वार्ता गर्नुपर्ने सुझाव राजालाई दिएका थिए। ०३५ सालमा नेकपाका संस्थापक महासचिव पुष्पलालको अस्तु शोभाभगवतीमा ल्याउँदा थापा त्रिभुवन विमानस्थलदेखि शोभाभगवतीसम्म शवयात्रामा सहभागी भएका थिए। ०२८ सालमा सुधारिएको पञ्चायतका पक्षमा काठमाडौंको इटुम्बहालमा भाषण गर्दा थापाले १४ महिना जेल बस्नुपर्‍याे। ........ ०४२ मा राजा वीरेन्द्रले राजीनामा दिन आग्रह गर्दा थापाले अस्वीकार गरेका थिए। राष्ट्रिय पञ्चायतबाट निर्वाचित भएर आएका थापाले प्रक्रियाबाटै सरकार ढाल्न राजारानीलाई चुनौती दिएका थिए। ........ ०५४ सालमा कांग्रेसको समर्थनमा प्रधानमन्त्री भएका थिए। ०६० सालमा उनले राजा ज्ञानेन्द्रबाट प्रधानमन्त्री पद स्वीकार गरे। ......... त्यतिवेला थापाले राणालाई सार्वजनिक रूपमा ‘राणाको छोरा हो भने सात दल (नेपाली कांग्रेस, एमालेसहित)सँग मिलेर सरकार ढाल्नुस्’ भनेका थिए। राणाले पनि सार्वजनिक रूपमा थापा बगाले थापा होइन भन्ने टिप्पणी गरेका थिए। ........... थापाका नाति सिद्धार्थले बताएअनुसार ०५१ मा मनमोहन अधिकारी नेतृत्वको सरकार गठन भएपछि अविश्वासको प्रस्ताव ल्याउने विषयमा छलफल गर्न धेरैपटक कांग्रेस नेता गिरिजाप्रसाद कोइराला मालीगाउँ पुगेका थिए। गिरिजाबाबुले त्यहाँ ५५५ चुरोट पिएका थिए। गिरिजाबाबुबारे सूर्यबहादुरको टिप्पणी हुनेगर्थ्याे, ‘गिरिजाबाबुसँग राजनीतिक एड्भेन्चर गर्ने क्षमता छ। .............. पञ्चायतमा दुई धार थियो– एउटा डा. तुल्सी गिरी, अर्को सूर्यबहादुर थापा। डा. गिरीको भनाइ थियो, ‘राजा प्रजातान्त्रिक वा संवैधानिक हुँदैनन्, उनी राजा नै हुन्छन्। जनताप्रति जिम्मेवार हुन्छन्। पञ्चायतमा राजाको सक्रियताभन्दाबाहेक विकल्प छैन।’ थापाको भनाइ थियो, ‘पञ्चायत भनेको राजनीतिक प्रणाली हो। त्यसअन्तर्गत राजतन्त्र हो। अर्थात् प्रणालीअन्तर्गत हो राजतन्त्र। राजा सिस्टमभन्दा माथि हो।’ .......... ०१७ को कदमका मस्यौदाकार थापालाई ०६१ माघमा राजा ज्ञानेन्द्रले दरबारमा निम्ता गरे। त्यतिवेलासम्म राजाले सक्रिय शासन सुरु गरिसकेका थिएनन्। त्यसवेला राजाले टेकओभर गर्ने हल्ला चलिरहेको थियो। तर, राजा ज्ञानेन्द्रले थापालाई आश्वासन दिएका थिए, ‘म टेकओभर गर्दिनँ।’ .......... दरबारबाट फर्केपछि जिज्ञासामा उनले नाति सिद्धार्थलाई सुनाए, ‘राजाबाट टेकओभर हुँदैन।’ ........ शाहीघोषणा भइरहँदा झ्याल नभएका निजी नम्बर प्लेटका प्रहरीका दुईवटा भ्यान रोकिए। सिद्धार्थका अनुसार इन्स्पेक्टरले थापालाई भन्यो, ‘हजुरलाई नजरबन्दको आदेश छ।’ उनी १४ दिन घरमा नजरबन्दमा बस्नुपर्‍याे। ........... राजाको प्रत्यक्ष शासनकै बीचमा थापा भारत भ्रमणमा गए। साथमा नाति सिद्धार्थलाई पनि उनले लगेका थिए। राजाले शासन लिएपछिको अवस्थामा अरू राजनीतिक पार्टी र माओवादीसँगै आउन सक्ने विश्लेषण भारतीय नेतृत्वलाई सुनाएका थिए। ......... राजा मोटर चढ्न लाग्दा सूर्यबहादुरले भन्न भ्याए, ‘एक–दुई दिनमा सत्ता छाडिदिने हो भने सरकारलाई केही स्पेस होला। ढिलो भयो भने म सिस्टम कोल्याप्स हुने अवस्था देख्दै छु।’ राजाको रेस्पोन्स केही रहेन। अन्ततः कांग्रेसले पनि राजा छाडिदियो। गणतन्त्र आयो। ......... राजसंस्था गइसकेपछि पनि पूर्वराजासँग थापाको कुराकानी हुन्थ्यो। थापाको सधैँ सल्लाह थियो, ‘विवादमा नआईकन चुपचाप बस्नु राम्रो हुन्छ। .......... पूर्वराजालाई सूर्यबहादुरको सधैँ सन्देश हुन्थ्यो, ‘समयको विपक्षमा कोही नजाऔँ। समयले सबै कुरा तय गर्छ।’ ......... उनको विश्लेषणमा राजा महेन्द्र तीक्ष्ण बुद्धि, परिस्थिति बुझेका राजा थिए। ‘एउटै कुरामा सधैँभरि अडान लिने बानी थिएन। परिस्थितिअनुसार अडान पनि परिवर्तन गर्थे। पौराणिककालमा रामचन्द्र र कृष्णको पनि पक्ष र विपक्ष छन्। ........ उनको नजरमा राजा वीरेन्द्र भद्र, सुसंस्कृत थिए। ‘राजा वीरेन्द्र डेमोक्य्राट थिए। उनी नवयुवक भएका वेला दरबारमा कर्मचारीका बीचमा मैले काम गरेँ। त्यस्तो वातावरणमा पनि उनी असल र प्रजातान्त्रिक विचारका थिए,’ थापाले भनेका थिए। राजा ज्ञानेन्द्रलाई क्षमतावान्, तर कुरा नबुझ्ने राजाका रूपमा उनले चित्रण गरेका थिए। ज्ञानेन्द्रबारे थापाको भनाइ थियो, ‘मान्छे इन्टेलिजन्ट छन् उनी। राजप्रतिनिधि परिषदमा प्रस्तुत हुने सबै एजेन्डाका बारेमा उनी पूर्वतयारी गरेर आउँथे। उनलाई भेट्न गएका प्रधानमन्त्री तयारी नगरी जाने हो भने पटकपटक बेबकुफ हुनेपर्ने थियो। मलाई पनि अप्ठेरोमा पार्थे ज्ञानेन्द्रले। जब कि म धेरै तयारी गरेर गएको हुन्थेँ।

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