Monday, January 02, 2006

A Militarist King And A Wasted Ceasefire


Maoists call off unilateral ceasefire (Breaking News) NepalNews Prachanda, on Monday said his party was compelled to call off the ceasefire "as the government continued its military operation even during the period of unilateral ceasefire."
Nepal's Maoist rebels call off unilateral truce Reuters India, India "The royal army is surrounding our people's liberation army, which is in defensive positions, to carry out ground as well as air attacks on us," the rebels said in a statement. "Therefore, we are compelled to go offensive not only for the sake of peace and democracy but for the sake of self defence." Combing Operations Against Maoists In Rolpa Kantipur The Royal Nepalese Army (RNA) has launched a massive combing operation against the Maoists in Rolpa district to flush out the rebels from their stranglehold area. A large number of the government troops have already entered the district's northern and western villages on Saturday. A group of soldiers has been dispatched to Thawang village in the north while another has been deployed in Bhawang village in the west. Each group of troops comprising 500 soldiers - have been formed for the combing operation mission. Army choppers dropped over 2,000 soldiers in the district from neighboring Dang and Chitwan for the operation which include the commandos of the army's special force - Ranger Battalion. each group has been deployed to the Maoist stronghold areas under the command of a Lieutenant Colonel...... the latest security operation would be one of the "deadliest" operations. "Although we have plans to conduct the operation for about a week to disarm the rebels, we will establish temporary camps in various villages" ...... RNA has also warned various representatives of development organizations in the district to refrain from going out into the village areas for few days.
Maoists Break Ceasefire Kantipur .... actions will now be targeted against the royal government only

This is unfortunate. This is irresponsible on the part of the king. The political parties have been sidelined again. The fighting is bound to be vicious. Both sides have been preparing to the hilt for the past four months.

I guess the king belongs to the school of thought that says there is only a military solution to the insurgency.

I am not sure which side will make the first move. But if the king is going to make his move in Rolpa, the Maoists are likely to strike in the east. Their strength tends to be asymmetry. They do hit and run. They might even strike in Kathmandu.

The civilians that will get caught in the crossfire will bear the major brunt of the whole thing. Chances are the Maoists will take back their word on not harming people who might contest the February 8 polls. It might be a bloody month or two ahead.

The mistake the seven party alliance has made is to not have launched a decisive movement in December, Ukraine style. Instead of a mass meeting here, a mass meeting there, it should have been a day in day out thing until the regime collapsed. But you can not do that without clarity in vision. I think it is high time for a two word goal for the movement: Democratic Republic. Forget the constituent assembly. That comes into the picture after the country is already a republic.

Two words are clarity. Two pages are an essay.

The UML has it. The other six parties need to follow.

The ground situation is about to get complicated again. This is not good. If there is an ugly fight, that sucks away the air from the non-violent movement of the seven parties, in a way. Doesn't it?

And this guy, the king, he is actually on a tour of the eastern part of the country, kind of like Nero and a burning Rome.

The monarchy must still have a substantial presence in the country. The other two forces both seem to depend on it. The Maoist ceasefire was designed to succeed only if the king reciprocated. The seven party alliance's House revival idea is totally dependent on the king. If your success depends on the king, is it a movement against the king?

A successful movement will be one where the gameplan is to succeed regardless of what the king does.

On the other hand, if the king fires the first bullet, that might anger the population. And that might aid the seven party movement. I don't know. All bets are off for now.

Things look complicated.

I don't think the RNA is in any position to crush the Maoists militarily. Instead they invite getting hit in unexpected ways.

2,000 deaths were not enough for the parties. There were 12,000 deaths before they came to the idea of a constituent assembly. How many more deaths does the king need?

I think the king has been worried that if there is peace now, that disturbs his three year long roadmap. The war has to last longer for him to stay on target.

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