Thursday, August 28, 2014

One Eye On Nepal



A tech startup launched partly or fully by Nepalis that might manage to raise 100K or 200K from among Nepalis in the first round, also called seed round, or friends and family round, if it does good work positions itself to raise north of a million dollars in its second round from professional investors. But it would be hard, probably impossible, to raise a million dollars from among Nepalis.

There is a flip side to that coin. Say that tech startup does well and ends up with a valuation in the 100 million dollar range in five years. Interested Nepalis either invested in the first round or did not invest at all. Because round two onwards you have to be a licensed investor to invest. You can’t come into rounds two, three or four.

Granted a tech startup is high risk behavior. Bottom line, it could fail. You could lose your money as an investor. But I can’t think of a better vehicle than a tech startup to start tapping into the robust capital markets in this city, the finance capital of the world. And unless you are a successful entrepreneur, you have no moral standing to make any meaningful contribution to economic growth in Nepal. Lecturing goes only so far, you have to be in a position to make meaningful investments. In this era of globalization and the Internet one can hope to make major contributions to Nepal’s economic growth, even if it might be 10,000 miles away.

Let’s say you invest 5K in a tech startup that goes on from a million dollar valuation in round 1 to a 100 million dollar valuation in about five years. Your 5K just grew to half a million dollars. It can be argued that is retirement money. A 500,000 dollar trust fund could generate 50K every year forever. It could be set up that way. As in, your half million stays intact. And you are netting 50K a year forever. 50K a year is not fancy, but it can be if you were to choose to spend all your money in a country like Nepal.

By that token a 10K investment would bring you a million dollars in that startup. A 20K investment would bring you two million dollars. A two million dollar trust fund would bring you 200K every year. That is rich!

What if you invested 5K each into 10 startups and only one of them hit it big? Your 50K still became half a million.

By one count there are 30 millionaire Nepalis in Russia. Shesh Ghale is in Australia. No matter which way you look, Nepalis in America look to be in a bad shape. America should have minted more Nepali millionaires than any place else. But that has not happened because not enough Nepalis in this country have gone into entrepreneurship. I happen to think that is a shame.

In Russia you could have bought factories for cheap when the Soviet Union collapsed. In Australia I guess real estate and education were key. But in the American economy high tech is the way to go. Old economy companies make money but not wild money. The beauty of software is it allows you to cash on your old economy expertise. I believe many software companies like Uber and AirBnB are yet to be born, companies that will target major inefficiencies in the old economy at large scales. Both are multi-billion dollar companies.

Clean energy is another way to get on the cutting edge. Finally Nepal might start making some big moves in a few years. I think there is room to build multinational corporations that do business globally, but also are deeply engaged in Nepal’s hydro sector.

The other day I was at a rooftop party in Manhattan and I came across this guy who had a biotech background who was doing Big Data for some big bank. He was not cashing in on his biotech background, not yet. But just like there are intersections between software and biotech, there necessarily are intersections between clean energy and software.

Risk taking is the top quality entrepreneurs share. Risk taking is more important than smarts, more important than a great work ethic. Sometimes you simply have to jump in and let the chips fall where they may. No risk, no gain.

But to the ablest of entrepreneurs, it probably does not feel like risk taking. To those watching, it might look like risk taking. But the best of entrepreneurs move with the assurance of a sleep walker. Just like I think of New York City as not part of America, but a whole different country altogether, I think entrepreneurs are a whole different species.

Monday, August 25, 2014

Nitish, Bihar, And Development

English: Flag of Janata Dal (United) of India
English: Flag of Janata Dal (United) of India (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Map of Bihar showing location of Bhimbandh Wil...
Map of Bihar showing location of Bhimbandh Wildlife Sanctuary (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Lalu Prasad Yadav, at a political meeting in K...
Lalu Prasad Yadav, at a political meeting in Kesariya, Bihar, India. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Bihar has seen the emergence of a new alliance with Nitish, Lalu and the Congress coming together. The other of course is the BJP alliance with the likes of Ram Vilas Paswan that swept the recently held national elections.

Right now the two alliances are running neck and neck. That means it will be a close fight next year in Bihar, but it is advantage BJP. Right now Sushil Modi is running ahead. In Bihar it might be 50-50. But in Uttar Pradesh it will be a total sweep by the BJP also at the state level.

Bihar is one place that could give Modi something akin to an opposition. And Modi in Gujrat was known as a man who brooks no opposition. His China model is not only economic, it is also political. He does not like the idea of having much of an opposition. And so he is going to do all he can to put Bihar into Sushil Modi's lap. Sushil Modi is not a bad candidate. He was deputy to Nitish in Bihar's spectacular success story. So he can legitimately take some credit.

If Narendra Modi could sweep Bihar as merely a prime ministerial candidate, imagine what he could do as a performing PM. And I expect him to perform.

Nitish has a tall task before him that has been made tougher by Lalu's mandal-kamandal talk. You can not beat Narendra Modi with that. The way to beat Narendra Modi is with development talk. Laloo was spectacular as Railway Minister, Nitish was the top performing Chief Minister in the country. It is not like they don't have it. But they are not talking development. That is problematic. Right now Nitish is all set to lose the elections next year.

Maybe the real story here is that his break up with the BJP was a bad move. Nitish was the first person to call Narendra Modi a future PM. That was back in 2003, I think. Looks like somewhere along the way he switched his position but has refused to play the role.

He could talk all development all the time and give Narendra Modi a run for the money. But he is not doing it. Puzzles me.

For now Narendra Modi is the man to watch. His political goal seems to be to form BJP governments in enough states that he also ends up with a majority in India’s upper house. His organization people have major plans for the North East and the South. Having a tight grip on the Hindi heartland of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh would go a long way.

All indications are Modi is on his way to giving India growth rates greater than seven per cent. He wants to double the size of the Indian economy by 2020.

Forget Bihar, Modi also has major plans for Nepal. His visit to the country was well appreciated. It felt like he truly wanted a fresh start in a relationship that has always been great but greatly unproductive. If load shedding ends in Nepal within a year or two, you will have Modi to thank for it. He means business.

I still stay curious about Nitish, though. He might have to stop crying hoarse, ke majdoori nahin mili, I did not get my wages. Like Bill Clinton would say, all elections are about the future. The people of Bihar chose to put Modi in Delhi. I am not sure that was a bad choice, economically speaking.

But now Nitish has to make a strong development case for the next five years for Bihar, or make way for Sushil Modi. It is not going to be an easy fight. The two Modis might have to show all tricks up their sleeves to rope in Nitish, once and for all.

The junior Modi is sure determined. Laloo is his usual comic self. Nitish looks a little tired, a little betrayed. He has not taken the latest political debacle too well.

Double digit growth rates are my benchmark, for Modi in Delhi, for the next Chief Minister of Bihar, and for all current and future Prime Ministers of Nepal. Delhi is a tall task, because coordinating all those states across India is no easy task. Patna? Nitish did it year after year. Nepal? Now that is the sad part.

Being in transition does not help. Not having a constitution does not help. There is also the no small matter of not having an obvious leader.

Sunday, August 17, 2014

सच्चा राष्ट्रियता गरीबी सकेसम्म चाँडै कसरी मेट्ने भन्ने हो

The flag of Nepal
The flag of Nepal (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
In response to a Facebook post by a friend.

(१) नेपाल र भारत को जस्तो नजिक को सम्बन्ध कुनै दुई देशको छैन, अमेरिका र कनाडा को पनि छैन। त्यो जनता लेवल को कुरा। र त्यो तराई का मधेसी को मात्र होइन। नेपालको प्रत्येक समुदाय को कुरा। शाह राणा को पनि "बेटी-रोटी" कै सम्बन्ध हो। हिमाली भेग को कुरा गर्ने हो भने तिब्बती शरणार्थी सबै भारत मै छन। यता दार्चुला, उता धारचूला, मान्छे दुबै तिर उस्तै।

(२) सरकार लेवल को कुरा गर्ने हो भने भारत मा जुन सुकै सरकार आए पनि हाम्रो नेपाल संग जस्तो राम्रो सम्बन्ध अरु कुनै देशको सरकार संग छैन भन्छ।  के भनेको होला?

(३) नेपालका प्रत्येक पार्टी का नेता दिल्ली धाउँछन्, र त्यो भु-राजनीति बुझ्नेले अप्राकृतिक मान्दैन। चन्द्रमा पृथ्वी वरिपरि घुम्छ, पृथ्वी सुर्य वरिपरि घुम्छ। बरु राजनीति र लोकतंत्र बुझ्नेले सोध्छ, भारत ले ठग्छ भन्ने त्यत्रो ठुलो डर छ भने नेपालको संसदले अर्को देश सँग गरिने कुनै पनि संधि सम्झौता नेपालको संसद मा पुर्ण बहसमा लगेर बहुमत ले अनुमोदन गर्न पर्ने प्राबधान किन नराखेको? २०४६ पछि मलाई अलि कति excited पारेका नेपालका प्रधान मंत्री दुईटा छन। कृष्ण प्रसाद भट्टराई र बाबुराम भट्टराई।  बाबुराम ले गरेको BIPPA सम्झौता कति राम्रो। तर उसकै उप प्रधान मंत्री, त्यो पनि उसकै जिल्लाको, त्यो BIPPA को बिरोध गर्दै हिँडेको।  कत्रो नौटंकी। बिरोध हो भने के को बिरोध, त्यो specific रुपमा कहिले भनिएन। कागले कान लग्यो, लग्यो भने पछि लग्यो लग्यो। फेरि बाबुराम भनेको धोती लाउने गजेन्द्र नारायण होइनन् , सप्तरीको मधेसी, भारतको मान्छे यसले भारतकै सोंच्यो भन्ने "ह्रितिक रोशन सिंड्रोम" आरोप लाग्दो हो।  बाबुराम भनेको त १९५० को संधि धांधली भो खारेज गर नत्र भने भन्दै बन्दुक उठाएको मान्छे। माओबादीले बन्दूक उठाएको ४-५ बर्षसम्म मैले उसको बाहेक अरु कुनै माओबादी को नाम सम्म सुन्या थिएन। नेहरू खुदले विश्व स्तरको नेता मानेको BP ले पनि देशै बेचने रै छ, बन्दूक उठाउने SLC Board First बबुरामले पनि देशै बेचने, के रै छ त त्यस्तो?

(४) बाबुराम लाई म अझै BP लेवल को मान्दिन। तर फेरि प्रधान मंत्री बनेर उनी नेपालका नीतिश कुमार बन्छन् भने all bets are off. म आफु बामपंथी होइन (म नेपालको परिप्रेक्छ्य मा कांग्रेसी पनि होइन, anti-Congress हो) तर बामपंथी नै सही फिडेल को education र health सेक्टर का कामहरू गरेर देखाउन सक्नु पर्यो।

(५) लोकतंत्र भनेको जनता ले दिग्गज मान्छे खोज्ने र त्यो दिग्गजले ५ बर्ष एकलौटी शाषण गर्ने भनेको होइन। भारत संग गर्ने समझौता हरु नेपालको संसदले पुर्ण बहसमा लाने र बहुमत ले पास गर्ने ब्यबस्था गर्ने हो।  त्यति गर्दा पनि भारत ले ठग्ने रहेछ भने नेपाल त भारत ले ठग्नु पर्ने देशै रै छ भन्ने हुन्छ। कोही कोही हुन्छ नि पाकेटमार लाई सजिलो पारिदिने बानी भएको मानिस।  त्यस्तो।

(६) तर मुख्य कुरा अझ त्यो होइन। मुख्य कुरा नेपालका नेताहरूको competence or rather lack of it को हो।  आफ्नो कमी कमजोरी ढाकछोप गर्न जुन कुरा को दोष पनि भारत लाई दिई दिने। Dictatorships thrive on the external enemy, नार्थ कोरिया ले अमेरिका सँग निहुँ खोजिरहने कारण त्यो हो।  तर नेपालका नेता हरुले लोकतंत्र मा पनि त्यही कुराको सहारा लिएका छन। It should not be possible तर भइराखेको छ।  चुनाब ले मात्र लोकतंत्र हुँदैन भन्ने कुराको प्रमाण Russia छ। नेपाल लोकतंत्र भई सकेको छैन भन्ने कुरा बुझ्नु पर्छ।

(७) पुरानो सत्ताका status quoist हरु हर तरहले दमजम का मुद्दा हरुमा पुराणो सोंच कायम राख्न तत्पर छन।  स्टेट restructuring हुन नदिन हर किसिमका हथकंडा अपनाउन लागि राखेका छन।

(८) नेपाललाई सिक्किम बनाउन खोजेको आरोप कति लाई लाग्यो त्यो गनेर साध्य छैन, त्यो राजनीति होइन गाईजात्रा हो। अस्ति मोदी आउनु अगाडि समझौता का जुन फर्स्ट ड्राफ्ट हरु आएका थिए केही knee jerk nationalist हरुले "नेपाललाई भुटान बनाउन खोजेको" आरोप लगाए। म त चकित भएँ। अरे बाबा, भुटान दक्छिण एशिया को सबै भन्दा गरीब देश बाट quite literally रातारात दक्छिण एशिया को सबै भन्दा धनी देश बनेको कहानी हो।  सिंगापुर र स्विट्ज़रलैंड पछि बनाउने पहिला भुटान नै बनाउने कि नेपाललाई?

(९) नेपाल बाट गरीबी सकेसम्म चाँडै कसरी मेट्ने - त्यो भन्दा ठुलो राष्ट्रबाद नेपालको सन्दर्भमा हुन सक्दैन। त्यस मापदंड़ अनुसार अहिले को नेपालको political class खचाखच अराष्ट्रीय तत्व हरुले भरिएको देखि राखेको छु।  मोदीले सही भनेका छन -"Nepal can become developed nation by supplying power to India." बोलीले होइन ब्यबहार ले हो राष्ट्रबाद झल्किने, तर नेपालको पोलिटिकल क्लास लाई चिंता छ, नेपाल developed नेशन भयो भने जनता जागरुक हुन्छन् अनि फेरि हामी लाई कसले वोट दिने? त्यो घोर अराष्ट्रीय तत्व thinking हो।

(१०) मोदीले वास्तव मै नया किसिमको सम्बन्ध चाहेका छन, त्यसको फाइदा न उठाउनु मुर्खता नै हुनेछ।