Monday, December 31, 2012

Mohan Baidya Has A Point


When all is said and done Nepal will have ended up like India, not China. India does not have a monarchy. India has federalism. The Indian democracy is not my idea of an attempt at classlessness. (China is not my idea of a democracy, but that is another topic.)

So far the Baidya-Badal group has used the party split as a pressure tactic upon the mother party. If you correct your ways we will reunite is the message.

Consolidating the achievements made so far - republic, secularism, federalism - is a sound strategy on the parts of the likes of Baburam Bhattarai. A Maoist return to an armed insurgency will simply undo the concrete achievements without bringing forth the classic Maoist dictatorship.

If an armed insurgency is not an option and if becoming India-like is not enough, what is to be done? I believe that option is non-violent. And it turns Nepal into a democracy unlike India, and gives Nepal a political system different from China.

The goal has to be to write a constitution in which Nepal is a multi-party democracy in which human rights, as defined by the UN Charter on the same, are guaranteed, but one where political parties are 100% funded by the state according to a formula that is democratic, the obvious one being you get funds in proportion to the number of votes you collect in an election.

When you take money out of politics like that you turn Nepal into a one person, one vote democracy. That makes the poor actively participate, that makes politicians want to invest lavishly in human capital, in education, in health and in credit availability.

In such a democracy the market forces will be given plenty of play. But there will also be options for the state to become part or majority shareholders in companies/corporations. You will not have nationalized industries, but you can have industries the state participates in. The state owning 5% or 10% or 20% of a company might be an interesting experiment in people power without muzzling the market forces. China will tell you the market is the best way to create wealth there ever was.

So I do think Mohan Baidya has a point. But another armed insurgency - "urban revolt" - is not a good option. The best option is in the constitution writing itself. A Nepal that is a multi-party democracy of completely state funded parties is a democracy better than what exists in India, in Britain, in America. And it will be a much better political system than China. China is only now gearing for political reform. That will mean more openness in its political system. Baidya should learn from China.

Where Mohan Baidya does not have a point is in thinking xenophobia is nationalism. His thinking equality for the Madhesis of Nepal is an Indian agenda is racist thinking. He should also learn from China about foreign direct investment (FDI). The more the merrier, China would tell Baidya. Baidya's stance on BIPPA, frankly, is stupid, it is ignorant. Politicians like Baidya would rather send young Nepali women to brothels in Mumbai than bring in FDI so jobs can be created for those women right there in Nepal.



CA demise deepens crisis
The 601-member Assembly, that was hailed as one of the most representative elected body ever in Nepali history saw its unceremonious demise at midnight on May 27 without producing the new constitution. ..... federalism is the major cause of CA´s dissolution .... With the emergence of caucuses comprise of cross-party lawmakers, these groups at times even challenged the whips of their respective parties on crucial issues such as determining a federal model...... leaders from ´traditional´ political parties mainly Nepali Congress and CPN-UML played negative role in the CA. ..... Congress President Sushil Koirala was the one who had for the first time lobbied against CA term extension by holding press conference immediately after then Law Minister Krishna Sitaula, from his own party, registered a bill to extend the CA at parliament. ..... In the absence of parliament, the country has been trapped in a quagmire. The political parties have neither a proper place to form new government nor a House to amend constitution to pave the way for new elections.
Year of dysphoria
Where did one of the most unemotional people on the planet find the energy to pursue the path leading towards freedom, equality and justice in the Spring Uprising 2006 and the Madhesh Uprisings 2007? ..... “Nobody would have a federal constitution if he could possibly avoid it.” His acolytes in Nepal are busy exploring all avenues of avoiding federalism and limiting it to decentralization as a concession. Devolution without recognition of identity can be termed de-concentration or decentralization, but not federalism. .... inclusion is the second most hated word in contemporary Nepal after federalism. ..... The legislature failed to resolve contradictions inherent in its composition and meekly accepted the supremacy of the judiciary. The judiciary in turn decided that the legislature had outlived its utility and declared that it must commit hara-kiri on a designated date. The executive ignored the wishes of the legislature, honored the directives of the court, and killed the mother that had birthed it. .... On every issue of concern of the marginalized and externalized population—democracy, federalism, inclusion, secularism and welfare economy—by and large the Nepali media stood solidly behind traditional forces. .... After his cooptation by banker, builder and business house nexus, the performance of Baburam Bhattarai has been extremely underwhelming. The tragedy is that all his likely successors appear equally uninspiring.
Social Democratic Party unveiled
The newly formed party has a 63-member central committee, including a seven-member presidium. The presidium accommodates Chaitanya Subba, Kumar Rai, Bam Kumari Budha Magar, Pasang Sherpa, Dalmardan Kami, Jyoti Danuwar and Nima Gyaljen Sherpa ..... SDP´s manifesto has four parts. In the introductory part of the manifesto, it has been claimed that the party has adopted the principle of federalism, social democracy, indigenism and pluri-nationalism. ..... The party has claimed that the characteristic of the state power has remained unchanged to date, with a particular class and race dominating the state power and politics. ...... It has stated that political parties, bureaucracy, civil society, media and intellectual society, which are dominated by elite and high caste, have stood against ethnicity-based federalism, right to self-determination, ethnic and regional autonomy.
Major parties seek five more days to form unity govt
राष्ट्रपतिसंग थप समय माग्ने संकेत
एकीकृत माओवादीका प्रवक्ता अग्नि सापकोटाले छैठौं म्याद पनि गुज्रिएपछि राष्ट्रपतिलाई के भन्ने त्यसबारे आफ्नो पार्टीको धारणा प्रष्ट भइनसकेको स्वीकारे। .... पुष २५ गतेसम्ममा सहमति नजुटे संविधानसभा पुनर्स्थापना गर्नु पर्ने विकल्प सत्तारुढ दलका नेताहरुले यसै साता अघि सारे।
KC comes down heavily upon UCPN (M)
Neutral government won’t deliver May election
political parties to sort out and recommend an agreeable government to take the country to elections. He has, until now, played a constructive role and has wide popularity so I don’t think he’d do anything that is not recommended by political parties. Second, those who are arguing in favour of a neutral government have a misguided perception.
भारतीय बिदेशमन्त्रीले राष्ट्रपतिलाई पाँच पटक भेटे
भारतले मिलाउँदैन, आफैं मिल्नुपर्छः राष्ट्रपति
राष्ट्रपतिको सवारीले दिउँसो दुई बजेदेखि ४ बजेसम्म राजधानीको ट्राफिक अस्तव्यस्त भएको थियो । राष्ट्रपति भारत जाँदा पनि सडकमा 'अघोषित कर्फ्यु' लगाउँदा दिनभर सडक अस्तव्यस्त भएको थियो ।
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Sunday, December 30, 2012

Socialist Democratic Party: Welcome



Adivasi Janajati Awakening
The Janajati Party
Finally A Janajati Party
10 States

New Janajati party announced
The new party has Chaitanya Subba, Jyoti Dunuwar, Bal Kumari Budamagar, Pasang Sherpa, Dalmardan Karki, Nima Gyanzen Lhyolmo,and Kumar Rai as its top leaders.
Ethnic leaders, activists unveil new party
The leaders who failed to join earlier announced Ashok Rai-led Federal Socialist Party, citing their ideological difference with them, announced new party amidst a function in the capital today, a month after the establishment of Rai-led party. ....... Chaitanya Subba, Pasang Sherpa, Krishna Bhattachan .. Kumar Rai .... a 7-member presidium and 52-member working committee. In the presidium Chaitanya Subba, Pasang Sherpa, Bamkumari Budhamagar, Dalmardan Karmi, Nimagyaljon Hyalmo, Jyoti Danuwar are the members
Janajati to declare new party
The new Janajati party which is reported to have 53-member ad-hoc committee, is reported to be led by leader Chaitanya Subba.
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Saturday, December 29, 2012

How To Revive The Constituent Assembly



Two thirds or more of the members of the dissolved constituent assembly should submit their signatures to Subhash Nembang who would then be forced to declare the assembly revived. That is how. Or what? I think the assembly should be revived for a six month period.

Federalism And CA Revival
10 States

On his return from India President Yadav says parties should resolve crisis on their own
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Federalism And CA Revival

No schism within FDRA on CA revival‚ say Madhesi leaders


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I have come to think CA revival is the best way to move ahead. Revive the CA, don't do constitution work outside the assembly. Schedule debates on the last unsettled issue of federalism. And let there be procedural votes.

Revive the CA now, finish work on the constitution in a month and hold parliamentary elections in May. Hold local elections by the end of 2013.

Then shoot for double digit economic growth rates.

In A Revived Constituent Assembly
To Revive Or Not To Revive
Reviving The Constituent Assembly For Good
Reviving The Constituent Assembly
Is CA Revival Possible?

नेपाली कांग्रेस र एमाले बाहुन बाहुन ले भरिएका पार्टी। नेका का 112 मध्ये 80 र एमाले का 65 सांसद ले संबिधान सभा पुनर्बहाली को पक्छ्मा उभिंदा पनि ती पार्टी का नेता भनाऊदा हरुले कानमा तेल हालेको देख्दा नेपालका बाहुनवादी पार्टी हरुमा internal democracy नभएको प्रमाणित हुन्छ। संघीयता कै पक्छ्मा पनि ती दुबै पार्टी भित्रै भारी बहुमत छ। तर नेता भनाउंदा हरूले तगारो हालेका छन।
"See, our party is united for reinstatement. Nepali Congress´ establishment is against reinstatement but 80 out of around total 112 former NC lawmakers have signed in favor of CA revival. Sher Bahadurji and Ram Chandraji are for revival," Dahal explained. "Similar is the situation in the UML. A section of the party is rigid against reinstatement but around 65 former lawmakers have lobbied for revival."

He also claimed that even lawyers and judges have lately realized that the Supreme Court´s verdict against CA´s term extension was ill-timed. "Even people in the court have now started to say that they shouldn´t have stood against CA extension had they foreseen present political complexity," he said. "So, lately, people are again realizing the need of the elected body."

CA revival better than poll delays: Dahal
No resignation without package deal: PM Bhattarai
I'll hold CA polls myself if consensus fails: PM
Gagan Thapa serves 4 days to Maoists for consensus
Prez, PM have lost legitimacy: Baidya
“The transfer of government leadership from Baburam Bhattarai to Sushil Koirala won´t magically resolve the deadlock” ..... Baidya also vented anger against UCPN (Maoist) Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal who had alleged that CPN-Maoist was planning to launch underground armed insurgency. ..... “We will make the revolution successful by remaining in the cities,” he said, adding that Dahal and Prime Minister Baburam Bhattarai are no different than the leaders of Nepali Congress and CPN-UML.
Gupta says MPRF-R no longer his party
Jaya Prakash Gupta, who will be released next week

10 States

This is the federalism that I want in Nepal.


Keep the 75 districts as far as possible to prevent administrative chaos. But I understand some district boundaries might have to be modified.

Thursday, December 27, 2012

3 Point Package Deal


  1. On January 5 a new all party government in the leadership of Sushil Koirala is formed. It includes the NC, the UML, the UCPN(M), the CPN(M), the UDMF, the FDF. The UML gets Home, the UDMF gets Defense, the UCPN(M) gets Finance, the CPN(M) gets Sanchar, the FDF gets the Foreign Ministry. The rest of the ministries are fairly distributed among the six constituent groups. There is a Deputy Prime Minister from the UCPN(M). 
  2. This all party government on January 6 passes on to the president all election related ordinances that the president promptly approves. These details are agreed to before the all party government is formed. There are 240 directly elected MPs, and perhaps 101 elected through the proportional mechanism for a total of 341. 
  3. Elections must be held by the end of May 2013. If elections are not held by then, Sushil Koirala must resign. Such is the agreement. 


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In A Revived Constituent Assembly

English: The chart shows the composition of th...
English: The chart shows the composition of the Constituent Assembly Members (2008) vis a vis the parties they belong. Also percentage of the parties in CA is given. Gender/Women composition can also be found. Please contact Bal Krishna Jha (balkrishnajha@gmail.com) in case doubt/query. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)


I am crunching some numbers based on this. And I remember Baidya claiming they are now the third largest party, so I am guessing they have more MPs than does the UML. I don't have the figures for where the Madhesi parties stand after their many splits.

UCPN(M) -- 119
NC ------- 115
CPN(M) --- 110
UML ------ 108*
MJF(D) ---- 13
NMSP ------ 13
MJF(R) ---- 12
MJFN ------ 14
TMLP ------ 11
TMLP(N) --- 10
RPP ------- 8
CPN(ML) --- 9
SP -------- 5
SSP ------- 4
Others ---- 46 (17 parties)

* I have no knowledge of how many of these are now with Ashok Rai.

Looks like both the Maoists-Madhesis and the NC-UML need the help of the Baidya group to be able to form a majority government if the assembly is revived. Or if the NC-UML bring a no confidence motion the Baidya group would have to abstain for the Baburam government to survive.

The key thing, though, is the federalists already have the signatures of two thirds of the members of the assembly. Federalism can be secured through the assembly.

FDRA rules out spring polls without package deal
the decision that if the major parties fail to reach consensus in a package deal by January 9 then the fresh polls won’t be held in April/May. ..... if the parties are incapable of hammering out a consensus between the parties then the FDRA will put forth a demand for the resurrection of the Constituent Assembly (CA) to promulgate the much hyped constitution. ..... decision to transform the PM Bhattarai led care taker government into consensus one as proposed earlier, failing which the ruling alliance will forward the name of another candidate from the ruling coalition. ..... If the parties do not agree to these options then there is no alternative but to go for neutral government
Gachhadhar rules out CA revival‚ clamours for fresh polls
the parties should forge consensus at the earliest and go for fresh polls rather than opting for the CA revival as it is complicated and impossible in the present scenario..... In today’s FDRA meeting most of the leaders had asserted for the reinstatement of the CA.
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