Thursday, December 27, 2012

In A Revived Constituent Assembly

English: The chart shows the composition of th...
English: The chart shows the composition of the Constituent Assembly Members (2008) vis a vis the parties they belong. Also percentage of the parties in CA is given. Gender/Women composition can also be found. Please contact Bal Krishna Jha ( in case doubt/query. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

I am crunching some numbers based on this. And I remember Baidya claiming they are now the third largest party, so I am guessing they have more MPs than does the UML. I don't have the figures for where the Madhesi parties stand after their many splits.

UCPN(M) -- 119
NC ------- 115
CPN(M) --- 110
UML ------ 108*
MJF(D) ---- 13
NMSP ------ 13
MJF(R) ---- 12
MJFN ------ 14
TMLP ------ 11
TMLP(N) --- 10
RPP ------- 8
CPN(ML) --- 9
SP -------- 5
SSP ------- 4
Others ---- 46 (17 parties)

* I have no knowledge of how many of these are now with Ashok Rai.

Looks like both the Maoists-Madhesis and the NC-UML need the help of the Baidya group to be able to form a majority government if the assembly is revived. Or if the NC-UML bring a no confidence motion the Baidya group would have to abstain for the Baburam government to survive.

The key thing, though, is the federalists already have the signatures of two thirds of the members of the assembly. Federalism can be secured through the assembly.

FDRA rules out spring polls without package deal
the decision that if the major parties fail to reach consensus in a package deal by January 9 then the fresh polls won’t be held in April/May. ..... if the parties are incapable of hammering out a consensus between the parties then the FDRA will put forth a demand for the resurrection of the Constituent Assembly (CA) to promulgate the much hyped constitution. ..... decision to transform the PM Bhattarai led care taker government into consensus one as proposed earlier, failing which the ruling alliance will forward the name of another candidate from the ruling coalition. ..... If the parties do not agree to these options then there is no alternative but to go for neutral government
Gachhadhar rules out CA revival‚ clamours for fresh polls
the parties should forge consensus at the earliest and go for fresh polls rather than opting for the CA revival as it is complicated and impossible in the present scenario..... In today’s FDRA meeting most of the leaders had asserted for the reinstatement of the CA.
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