Madhesi People's Rights Forum, MPRF, is in the lead. The organization just made a major tactical decision. (New MJF Strategy: Hit The State, Not The People) What now? Where do we go from here?
American Chronicle: The Madhesi Movement In Nepal Is Lonely
- Scenario 1: Home Minister Resigns, Probe Commission Is Formed
- Scenario 1.1: MPRF and NEFIN hold talks with the eight party government, as do the three armed Madhesi groups, JTMM-Goit, JTMM-Jwala, Madhesi Tigers. The talks are successful. They lead to an agreement on Further Compromise: Mixed Election With Reservations. MPRF and NEFIN decide not to become political parties. JTMM-Goit, JTMM-Jwala, and Madhesi Tigers arms are managed by the UN.
- Scenario 1.2: Talks lead to an agreement on proportional elections to the constituent assembly. MPRF and NEFIN become political parties, and they bag a healthy share of the Madhesi and Janajati votes.
- Scenario 1.1: MPRF and NEFIN hold talks with the eight party government, as do the three armed Madhesi groups, JTMM-Goit, JTMM-Jwala, Madhesi Tigers. The talks are successful. They lead to an agreement on Further Compromise: Mixed Election With Reservations. MPRF and NEFIN decide not to become political parties. JTMM-Goit, JTMM-Jwala, and Madhesi Tigers arms are managed by the UN.
- Scenario 2: Home Minister Does Not Resign, Probe Commission Is Not Formed, MPRF Keeps Agitating.
- Scenario 2.1: MPRF is alone. NEFIN is not being able to exhibit similar mass support in the Pahad among the Janajati. NEFIN has not formally joined the MPRF chorus calling for the Home Minister's resignation. Sadbhavana (Anandi) stays put with the eight party coalition.
- Scenario 2.2: MPRF and NEFIN gang up around a three point agenda. (1) Home Minister resign. (2) Form probe commission. (3) Hold proportional elections to the constituent assembly.
- Scenario 2.2.1: The eight parties ignore the MPRF and NEFIN. That cements their alliance. The alliance conducts civil disobedience programs to start with, and pledges to shut the country down for one week during the constituent assembly elections in June.
- Scenario 2.2.1.1: The MPRF, NEFIN led Madhesi Janajati Movement succeeds. The constituent assembly elections are disrupted. Girija Koirala resigns. Upendra Yadav becomes interim President, Om Gurung becomes interim Vice President. Upendra Yadav gives a speech that declares Nepal a federal republic with eight interim states, Madhesh, Tharuwan, Kirat, Newa, Tamang, Tamuwan, Magarat, and Khasan, and forms a new interim government that is 25% MPRF, 25% NEFIN, 40% Eight Plus Parties, 10% Dalit Mahasangh, and 1/3rd women in each category for a 300 strong interim parliament. The interim constitution is to be amended. Elections are announced to be held in November after the Maoists have truly become a political party, all Madhesis have been issued citizenship papers, and a fresh census is conducted in the country.
- Scenario 2.2.1.1: The MPRF, NEFIN led Madhesi Janajati Movement succeeds. The constituent assembly elections are disrupted. Girija Koirala resigns. Upendra Yadav becomes interim President, Om Gurung becomes interim Vice President. Upendra Yadav gives a speech that declares Nepal a federal republic with eight interim states, Madhesh, Tharuwan, Kirat, Newa, Tamang, Tamuwan, Magarat, and Khasan, and forms a new interim government that is 25% MPRF, 25% NEFIN, 40% Eight Plus Parties, 10% Dalit Mahasangh, and 1/3rd women in each category for a 300 strong interim parliament. The interim constitution is to be amended. Elections are announced to be held in November after the Maoists have truly become a political party, all Madhesis have been issued citizenship papers, and a fresh census is conducted in the country.
- Scenario 2.2.1: The eight parties ignore the MPRF and NEFIN. That cements their alliance. The alliance conducts civil disobedience programs to start with, and pledges to shut the country down for one week during the constituent assembly elections in June.
- Scenario 2.3: MPRF and NEFIN decide to come together and form a political party called Janata Dal whose central committee is 20% Khas, 35% Madhesi, 35% Janajati, 10% Dalit, and 1/3rd female across the board. Upendra Yadav is President of the party, Om Gurung is Vice President. They decide to call off all protest programs. They decide to take up the challenge of the elections to the constituent assembly. They decide to turn all their demands and agendas into election issues. The Home Minister's not resigning is turned into a major election issue in the Madhesh and Krishna Sitaula is defeated in Jhapa, Girija Koirala is defeated in Sunsari and Morang. The Janata Dal goes to the people with the agenda of a federal, democratic republic of eight states: Madhesh, Tharuwan, Kirat, Tamang, Newa, Tamuwan, Magarat, Khasan. The Janata Dal sweeps the elections and emerges as the largest party in the country.
- Scenario 2.1: MPRF is alone. NEFIN is not being able to exhibit similar mass support in the Pahad among the Janajati. NEFIN has not formally joined the MPRF chorus calling for the Home Minister's resignation. Sadbhavana (Anandi) stays put with the eight party coalition.
It Is Tough For The Madhesi
Upendra Yadav: Madhesi Martin Luther King
Vivaswan Kumar: Foreign Aids: Funding Terrorism In Nepal
New MJF Strategy: Hit The State, Not The People
Krishna Sitaula: Appeaser, Not Peacemaker
Abinish Karna: A True Madhesi
A Federal Republic Electoral Alliance Against The Maoists Needed
Sadist Koirala, Kans Sitaula, Pol Pot Prachanda
Yubraj Acharya, Alok Bohra And Other Idiot Bahuns
Further Compromise: Mixed Election With Reservations
5 Point Demand: Compromise Formula So Elections Can Be Held In June
MJF And NEFIN Must Become Political Parties
The Economist: Nepal's Ethnic Politics: The New Battlefront
Madhesi Janajati Kranti: Victory Scenarios
Madhesi Janajati Kranti: Confusion, Clarity
Madhesi Janajati Kranti: A Few Scenarios
In The News
PM to initiate talks with other parties over interim govt formation NepalNews
UNMIN concerned about ‘unregistered’ arms and combatants
Speaker says Maoists' CD will be discussed by House committee
Thousands of combatants, arms outside cantonment site: Prachanda these combatants and weapons were not registered as they "couldn't meet United Nations standards" ..... they are facing problems for the management of weapons that are not registered with the UN. ..... Maoists still have sufficient technical human resources outside the cantonments to launch "massive attacks" simultaneously at several places on a single night. ..... We launched our movement with just two 3-0-3 rifles and home-made weapons. ...... Earlier, addressing a mass meeting in Butwal Prachanda said, "…the rivers swept away our arms and fire burnt them down…" ...... "Besides combatants staying inside the cantonments, we have a large number of weapons and skilled manpower who are able to make such weapons and launch simultaneous attacks at several places on a single night"
Govt will not tolerate bandhs anymore: Minister Mahat
Goodwill rally organised in Nepalgunj more than 1,000 people took part in the rally that went through different parts of Khajura area where the district administration had imposed curfew for four consecutive days after the death of two civilians in a clash.
PM confers with NC leaders on agendas of 8-party meet top leaders of the major four parties would hold discussion ahead of the eight-party meeting.
JTMM cadres abduct citizenship distribution officials
US Embassy changes visa application rules
Civil society wants roundtable conference The movement has called on the seven parties to take the Maoists into the government, fix CA polls date, address demands of agitating parties and take action against persons guilty of repression during the People's Movement. .... it was willing to act as facilitator to organise such roundtable conference.
Zero hour started in the parliament
Maoists claim palace conspired against four big parties the palace had formed a committee headed by a pro-royalist in presence of Crown Prince Paras to disrupt the constituent assembly elections.
Terai turmoil to hit Kathmandu now India eNews.com, India
Dangerous Game Plan of Comrade Prachanda American Chronicle, CA Now truly speaking people have no interest on them rather irritated because of too much exposure in media and misleading behaviors. It is really ridiculous to hear same indoctrinated views which are mugged up by them like parrots no matter in which forum they are speaking, what topics are they talking or what questions are they dealing. ........ Sometimes ago, the Maoists made similar allegation that, a group of people are mobilized by the palace and Nepalese Army to assassinate Maoist leadership. Later on it was revealed that they have arrested and tortured their own activists who broke away from them together with Rabindra Shrestha and Mani Thapa, who had no plot of that kind and no evidence were found that they are mobilized by palace or army. One of the activists who managed came out from the Maoists custody gave detail accounts that how he was behaved and tortured to commit his involvement in such activities. When this guy refused to take responsibility of falls allegation, the Maoists had to finally release him. ....... if the election will be held free and fair, they will be in the minority and their grand design to make Nepal a totalitarian communist regime will jeopardize. ...... In normal life fears and atrocities from the Maoists is even more worsening then the time they were fighting insurgency. ...... The Maoists are going all out to grab the Deputy premiership with home minister for their party and wishes to appoint Krishna Prasad Sitaula, present home minister, as defense minister of interim cabinet. For the Maoist, appointing Sitaula as defense minister is more favorable then appointing their own man in that portfolio. Because it is already known to all that Sitaula works for the vested interests of Maoist instead of national or his own parties' interests. ........ In lieu of that, the Maoists are protecting him from all aspects despite of pressure for him to step down on moral ground for the loss of life and properties in Terai. Number of death toll in Terai uprising is almost double than the number of loss during Janandolan II. The dialogue with Madhesi stakeholders is deadlocked due to attitude of Sitaula. ......... the people of Nepal express serious concerns about the violation of peace process
Strike Paralyses Life in Terai for 6th Day in a Row
MJF Strike Affects Life in Terai Himalayan Times, Nepal
Koirala's Appeal Gorkhapatra, Nepal
A Faction Of JTMM In Nepal Ceases Violence, Another Resumes PeaceJournalism.com, Nepal
Nepal PM turns down Madhesi group's demand Islamic Republic News Agency, Iran Nepal's Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala, has rejected agitating Madhesi Janadhikar Forums (MJF) demand for Nepalese Home Minister Krishan Prasad Sitaula's resignation.
Nepal School strike alarms parents Blogger News Network
JTMM-J Nepal says truce over PeaceJournalism.com, Nepal
Goit-led JTMM suspends 'military actions' Kantipur Online, Nepal
Sitaula urges police force to work with high morale Nepalnews.com, Nepal
Strike Paralyses Life in Terai for 6th Day in a Row Himalayan Times, Nepal
Curfew in Nepal villages after bloody clashes Gulf Times, Qatar
Nepal's PM Says King Should Abdicate All Headline News
Nepal's PM says king should quit
35 injured, indefinite curfew follows in southern Nepal
Nepal Hindu group demands poll on secularism
Nepal Citizens Calling For End Of Royals
Nepal citizens calling for end of royals
Curfew in Nepal villages after bloody clash ReliefWeb (press release), Switzerland
US offers Nepal support
