Showing posts with label maoist. Show all posts
Showing posts with label maoist. Show all posts

Saturday, February 21, 2015

वार्ता नै उपयुक्त हो

माओवादी-मधेसीको दुई तिहाई हुँदा पनि नहुने रहेछ। काँग्रेस-एमालेको दुई तिहाई हुँदा पनि नहुने रहेछ। त्यति देखि सकियो। भने पछि संख्या होइन वार्ता नै मुख्य कुरा रहेछ। र वार्ताको वातावरण बनाउने प्रमुख जिम्मेवारी प्रधान मंत्रीको हो। वार्ता नै उपयुक्त हो।

आंदोलन भनेको वार्ताको लागि दबाब हो। क्रांति अंतिम अस्त्र मात्र हो। आंदोलन पछि पनि वार्ता नै हुने हो भने, क्रांति पछि पनि वार्ता नै हुने हो भने, अहिल्यै वार्ता किन नगर्ने?

तर वार्ता भनेको आत्म समर्पण होइन। वार्ता सम्मानजनक हुन्छ। माओवादी-मधेसीले चाहेको सबै कुरा माओवादी-मधेसीले पाउने होइनन्। काँग्रेस-एमालेले चाहेको सबै कुरा काँग्रेस-एमालेले पाउने होइनन्। वार्ताको स्पिरिट त्यस प्रकारको हुन्छ।

पार्टी सभापति भन्दा पार्टी महासमिति माथि भन्ने यथार्थ लाई सुशीलले मान्ने हो भने झापा, मोरंग, सुनसरी, चितवन, कैलाली, कंचनपुर को झमेला त्यसै गायब हुन्छ। जो अगुवा उही बाटो ______!


Monday, February 02, 2015

एमाओवादी र मधेसी संविधान सभाबाट निस्कने हो भने

एमाओवादी र मधेसी संविधान सभाबाट निस्कने मेरो सुझाव होइन, कमसेकम अहिले होइन, तर यदि एमाओवादी र मधेसी संविधान सभाबाट निस्कने हो भने यस संविधान सभाको वैधता समाप्त हुन्छ र एउटा अंतर्राष्ट्रीय स्तरको क्राइसिस खड़ा हुन्छ, किनभने नेपालको शांति प्रक्रिया नेपालको मात्र चासो होइन, नेपालका छिमेकीको मात्र चासो होइन।

सहमतिको प्रयास कायम राख्नुपर्छ। अहिलेलाई। अहिले आन्दोलनको लागि इंधन पर्याप्त छ तर क्रांतिका लागि अझै समय आइसकेको छैन। क्रांति अंतिम अस्त्र हो।

अहिले सबै पक्षले सहमतिको प्रयास गरिराख्नु नै जिम्मेवारीपूर्ण कुरो हो। सत्ता पक्षको विशेष जिम्मेवारी हो। बहुमतमा र सत्तामा रहेकोले उदार चरित्र कसरी प्रदर्शन गर्ने भन्ने कुरा सुशील कोइरालाले नेल्सन मण्डेलाबाट सिक्ने हो।


Saturday, December 07, 2013

Federal Democratic Alliance: Too Little, Too Late

Madhesi Jana Adhikar Forum, Nepal
Madhesi Jana Adhikar Forum, Nepal (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
This Federal Democratic Alliance would have swept the country if it had been formed before the election in a way that there was only one FDA candidate in each of the 240 constituencies. Madhesi leaders in 30 political parties can not do the work of party unification but they want 13 million Madhesis to unite behind their cause? That is laughable. What was the expectation? That 13 million Madhesis will stand behind 30 Madhesi political parties all of whom were competing against each other?

March 2013: How The FDRA Could Bring In Baidya, Yadav, Rai
The FDRA's Options
The State Of Nepali Politics: A Diagram

There has been an obvious wrongdoing in the election mechanism. At least three million voters were kicked off the voter list. As for the elaborate sabotage that the Maoists are accusing of, I don't know. It feels as far fetched as the Nepali Congress claim in 2008 that the YCL basically handed over the election to the Maoists then.

I can see a little bit truth to both claims. But both claims in their extremes feel far-fetched. The YCL did some bulleying in 2008. Perhaps the army stuffed some boxes. But there was a major pro-Maoist wave in 2008. They were an untested bunch, and the people thought they might be radically different from the NC and the UML. But in power they did not act too different. And so that created an anti-incumbency wave.

The Madhesi parties went to the people wanting two states in the Terai. I see two states in the Terai being created by the new assembly.

The Maoists campaigned hard against the Madhesi parties in the Terai. The Madhesi parties campaigned hard against each other in the Terai. Ashok Rai went in solo. No wonder they all got poor results. The people wondered, if the Maoists and the Madhesis feel strongly about identity based federalism, why are they so against each other?

Madhesi Parties: 12 Lakh PR Votes

Now the best option is to go for six states - Eastern Terai, Western Terai, Koshi, Bagmati, Gandaki, Karnali - where half the MPs get elected from the Terai.

The Federalism Question: Maps

The attempt should be to form an all party government. The attempt should be that the Maoists get the Speaker position.

Then these parties should do internal homework.

Isn't this amazing? All these Madhesi parties will join the Maoist alliance, but they will still not talk about becoming one party? I find that mind boggling.

If they face the local and state elections in a fractured way like they faced the November election, they will fare just as bad.

UCPN (Maoist), other dissidents form new alliance
A group of 18 dissident political parties has formed a Federal Democratic Alliance (FDA) ..... UCPN (Maoist), Tarai-Madhes Democratic Party (TMDP), Madhesi People´s Rights Forum Nepal (MPRF-N), Federal Socialist Party Nepal (FSP-N), Sadbhavana Party, Tarai-Madhes Sadbhavana Party, MPRF-Republican, Tharuhat Tarai Party, Sanghiya Loktantrik Rastriya Manch, Rastriya Janamukti Party and Federal Sadbhavana Party ..... UCPN (Maoist) leaders have accused the Election Commission, the Nepal Army and "some other invisible forces" of perpetrating vote fraud under a plan to defeat Maoist candidates across the country. Maoist leaders said that the number of votes was manipulated while collecting the ballot boxes from the polling booths and bringing them to the vote counting centers.
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Thursday, November 28, 2013

Madhesi Parties: 12 Lakh PR Votes


There was an anti-Maoist wave, but there was no anti-Madhesi wave. If the Madhesi parties had been one, that unified party would have emerged as the third largest. But that is simple arithmetic. That unification might have created a pro-Madhesi wave, and that wave might have catapulted the unified party into a possible second position.

This is not a question of what the 13 million Madhesis will do, if they are politically conscious or not, or how they will vote. This is a question of what two dozen Madhesi leaders will do. Will they live up to the promise?

If one unified Madhesi party emerges, that party will produce the Chief Ministers in both states in the Terai.
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Sunday, November 24, 2013

The Federalism Question: Maps

I personally would be happy with three states - Koshi, Gandaki, Karnali - that has the existing 75 districts, where half the MPs come from the Terai. This was the first map I drew. That was in 2005. But I don't see anyone going for it. I called it a purely economic federalism. This map would be the best one for Nepal's economic progress.

One tangent would be to go to 25 districts from the current 75, but that might be even more far fetched in terms of the political reality, but I think 25 districts would be a good idea. The district governments would be stronger.



This below was the map I proposed to try and be in the same league as the Maoist-Madhesi sentiment. The NC-UML objection I believe is more to the names of the states than the map itself. What if some states are combined and all are given geographic names? So you would combine Magarat and Tamuwan to call it Gandaki, you would combine Tamang and Newa and call it Bagmati, Kirat would be called Koshi. Khasan would be Karnali, Madhesh would be called Eastern Terai, Tharuwan would be called Western Terai. Would that be more palatable? I think so.


These two maps below do a good job of exhibiting the differences between the two camps on federalism.


What I dislike about the six province model is that it is violently disrespectful of the fact that Kanchanpur, Chitwan, Sunsari, Morang and Jhapa are integral parts of the Terai. Otherwise four states in the Hills like in that map, and two in the Terai, all six with geographical names might be a good compromise map between the two camps. The 11 province model I find treacherous. It also seems to have lost the people's mandate.

A good compromise position is that the Maoists and the Madhesis should be okay with purely geographic one word names for the states, and the NC and the UML should respect the geographical integrity of the Terai. States with names Eastern Terai and Western Terai that include Kanchanpur, Chitwan, Morang and Jhapa will be as likely to produce Pahadi Chief Ministers as Madhesi ones. Why is that not a good idea? By now a lot of Madhesis live in Kathmandu Valley. I want to see a Madhesi Chief Minister of the Bagmati state some time over the next decade.

I say create six geographic states with 25 districts from districts merged from the existing 75. As in, no new geographic boundaries.

And everyone seems to have forgotten the idea of a non geographic state for Dalits. That bothers me. Proportional elections where DaMaJaMa participation is guaranteed is a must. One third for women, 10% for Dalits, all that is a must. 49% reservation for the DaMaJaMa for all new vacancies in the bureaucracy, police and the army, all good ideas. It is called state restructuring. The biggest restructuring though is downsizing. Nepal needs a parliament that is 200 strong, not 600 strong. Not even America and India have 600 strong parliaments. The bureaucracy could be half as big, the army could be 10% as big, the police could be one third as big. All that downsizing would be good for the DaMaJaMa as well the Bahun-Chhetris, because it would be best for Nepal's economy. More teachers and health workers, less soldiers. Less red tape.


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Three Governments In Four Years

Prachanda Portrait
Prachanda Portrait (Photo credit: izahorsky)
Total Seats: 601
Nepali Congress 214
UML 205
Maoist 94
Kamal Thapa 33
RPP 16
Gachhedar 11
TMLP 10
Others 7
Nominated 26 (Give 10 to the Baidya group)

NC (214) + Maoist (94) = 308
UML (205) + Maoist (94) + Madhesi parties (23) = 322
NC (214) + UML (205) = 419
Maoist (94) + Kamal Thapa (33) + RPP (16) + Gachhedar (11) + TMLP (10) + Others (7) + Baidya (10) + Nominated (16) = 197 + NC
Maoist (94) + Kamal Thapa (33) + RPP (16) + Gachhedar (11) + TMLP (10) + Others (7) + Baidya (10) + Nominated (16) = 197 + UML
Maoist (94) + Gachhedar (11) + TMLP (10) + Others (7) + Baidya (10) + Nominated (16) = 148 + NC
Maoist (94) + Gachhedar (11) + TMLP (10) + Others (7) + Baidya (10) + Nominated (16) = 148 + UML

Political arithmetic shows the Maoists could come into power at least six different ways. In several such scenarios the Maoists could even be leading the government. Nepal has a tendency to get a new government every year. If this parliament is to last four years and the government changes every year, the Maoists could be in power for two of the four years. That is a distinct possibility.

Many Maoist, Madhesi top guns lose in Nepal poll
Splits, hunger for power behind Madhesi parties´ poor show

चुनावी एकीकरणका लागि सद्भावनाको वार्ता टोली
The crumbling clan
3 ex-PMs, over 45 ministers contesting polls from eastern region
Many party central leaders join Mahato's SP
Mahat, Bhattarai engage in twitter war
'Intra-party rift may result in loss in Madhes'
NC to go for 7-province model with 3 in Tarai
NC to accept donation for polls only through banks
Army's Rs 288m deposits at high risk
TMDP leader found dead under mysterious circumstances

Facts and fiction
Madhesi parties drop 'One Madhes one pradesh'

एमाओवादीको दाबी- तराई बढाउने पहाडमा नगुमाउने
एमाले मतदाता केन्द्रित अभियानमा
कोइरालाको विशिष्ट 'प्रोटोकल'
कोइराला र देउवा गुट भेलामा
जनमत हाम्रै पक्षमा : कांग्रेस
Internet penetration reaches 26.1 percent
UCPN (M) ‘at low ebb’ since last CA polls
Fireside with K P Sharma Oli - August 19, 2013
Madhes hold, candidate pick ‘key to NC poll win’

Madhesi messiahs
MPRF-D to go for adjustment with TMDP
पूर्व सभासद लक्ष्मण मेहता सद्भावनामा प्रवेश
एकीकरणको नाममा राजनीतिक प्रोपोगण्डा - भरतविमल यादव (वरिष्ठ नेता मधेशी जनअधिकार फोरम, नेपाल)
अध्यक्षहरू नै एकीकरणका बाधक छन् - प्रमोद प्रसाद गुप्ता (महासचिव राष्ट्रिय मधेश समाजवादी पार्टी)
नेसपा (आ.)का कार्यवाहक अध्यक्ष सदभावनामा
मधेशको सशस्त्र आन्दोलनलाई बदनाम गराउन खोजिएको छ -रामलोचन ठाकुर( स्वामीजी) ( संघीय मधेशी मोर्चाका संयोजक तथा जनतान्त्रिक तराई मधेश मुक्ति टाइर्टसका राष्ट्रिय अध्यक्ष
राजनीतिक निकासका लागि संघीय सद्भावनाको अभियान
मधेशप्रति एमाले इमान्दार छैन : महासेठ
Yahoo Tops Google for U.S Web Traffic in July, ComScore Says
Author of fake video must apologise to Amitabh Bachchan: Narendra Modi
China accused of incursion in India's Arunachal Pradesh
Author of fake Narendra Modi video apologises to Amitabh Bachchan
रवीन्द्र अधिकारी र गगन थापासँग-17.08.13
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Prachanda Has Room To Play

Pushpa Kamal Dahal “Prachanda” at the Asia Society
Pushpa Kamal Dahal “Prachanda” at the Asia Society (Photo credit: Asia Society)

We have ended up at a scenario where the Maoist party could team up with either the NC or the UML and come into power. That gives us a lot of playing room for someone like Prachanda. You might disagree with his ideology and his worldview, but there is no denying Prachanda is a politically gifted individual. The next two weeks are going to be interesting to watch.

A NC-UML government is not a foregone conclusion.

The prime ministership to the NC, the presidency to the UML, the DPM position to the Maoists, the vice presidency to someone like Mahantha Thakur might be one fair scenario.

Despite a decisive verdict, the situation stays very much fluid. The parties should be creative about power, they also should be creative about federalism.
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Friday, November 22, 2013

Good Options For Maoists And Madhesi Parties

Surya TV
Surya TV (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Getting Nepal a new constitution before 2014 is over is the most important task at hand. All other issues are secondary. Country before party, now and always. That has to be the goal of the NC and the UML. That also has to be the goal of the Maoists and the Madhesi parties.

The way things are shaping up, it might be possible for the NC to form a government that includes the Maoists and the Madhesis. I am simply pointing out the political arithmetic. There is a silver lining to the wide margin defeat of the Maoists. If the margin had been less wide, a NC-UML two party government would have been a foregone conclusion. But because the margins are wide and there was no pre-poll alliance between the NC and the UML, a NC-Maoist-Madhesi government also looks possible.

Or you could form a NC-Maoist government, and give the presidency to Mahantha Thakur and the speakership to the UML. Nembang, anyone?

Sushil Koirala for PM, Narayan Kaji or Mahara for DPM, Mahantha Thakur for president, Nembang for Speaker.

Both sides have to be flexible on the federalism question. I think we might be looking at about four states in the Terai and another four states in the Hills/Mountains. 30 Madhesi parties that have not been able to become one party do not have a moral right to talk about a single Madhesh pradesh, not anymore.

The two Maoists should unite. What will bring them together is a vision that Nepal will be made a multi-party democracy of state funded parties. How many votes you get in a national election will decide how much money you get from the state. And a party will have no other source of income. That agenda should be enough for the Baidya group to stop dreaming of another revolution.

All Madhesi parties should immediately start the exercise of launching a single Madhesi party.

If the two Maoist parties become one, and if the 30 Madhesi parties become one political party, these two parties will be the prime beneficiary of the local and state elections that will be held in perhaps April 2015. They will ride the anti-incumbency wave then. People like Hridayesh Tripathy who lost this election will show up as Chief Ministers perhaps.

That is the best bet for the Maoists and the Madhesis.

The most important lesson though is that the three million Nepalis who have been kicked off the voter list need to be brought back onto that list. That should be the number one gripe of the Maoists and the Madhesi parties, and they should do something about it.

It is easy math. There are 30 million people in Nepal. More than half of Nepal is less than 30 years old. Which means roughly half of the population is of voting age. So if there are 15 million Nepalis of voting age, and only 12 million were on the list, that means three million were disenfranchised. And those three million were mostly of the DaMaJaMa background. Which means most of those three million would have voted for the Maoists and the Madhesi parties.

The entire country and all parties have to work to get those three million onto the voter list. It's just wrong to disenfranchise people. In a country where elections are won and lost by a few thousand votes routinely, and often times with a few hundred votes, the impact of kicking three million people off the voter list can not be exaggerated.

A Majority Government Of The NC And The UML
Election 2013: The People Have Spoken
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