Showing posts with label maoist. Show all posts
Showing posts with label maoist. Show all posts

Wednesday, November 20, 2013

Election 2013: The People Have Spoken

English: Election logo of Nepali Congress.
English: Election logo of Nepali Congress. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
One can already see the outlines of the election results.

  1. There has been an anti-incumbency wave against the Maoists and the Madhesi parties, but that does not explain their full defeat. Two and a half million people have been disenfranchised. Those were people who would have mostly voted for the Maoists and the Madhesi parties. 
  2. The Nepali Congress and the UML have won rather decisively. But this is not a mandate against federalism. This is more a mandate for peace, law and order, the democratic process, and normalcy. And this is not any clear mandate against the identity based federalism that the Maoists and the Madhesis have been known for. The NC and the UML do not have even a simple majority, let alone a two thirds majority. 
  3. A coalition of non-Maoist parties will likely come into power. That might include Madhesi parties. 
  4. On the contentious issue of federalism the mandate is no different from what it was in the last constituent assembly, that the two sides need to work together and forge some sort of a compromise. Neither a purely identity based federalism nor a purely geographic federalism is in the cards. 
  5. There has been no conspiracy. The Maoists might still have lost, but their wide loss is due to the disenfranchisement of 2.5 million voters, the anti-incumbency factor, and the people saying law and order and the economy are higher priority to them than federalism. 
  6. The Maoist split hurt them big time. I am surprised the UML split has not been hurtful. 
  7. The Madhesi parties have been punished for their numerous splits as predicted. But they still stand a strong chance of going back to power. The NC and the UML don't seem to have the numbers. Sadly the Madhesi parties might not unite even after this clear defeat.  
  8. The Maoists and the Madhesi parties will likely do better on the indirect election side. 
  9. One hopes for a new constitution by the end of 2014. Nepal needs local elections and state elections right after that. 
  10. Prachanda should be elected president. That way it would be okay to keep the Maoists out of power. What are we looking at? Sushil Koirala for PM? KP Oli for DPM? Will Gagan Thapa end up in the cabinet?

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Friday, October 04, 2013

The For Profit Sector

Mother Teresa of Calcutta (26.8.1919-5.9.1997)...
Mother Teresa of Calcutta (26.8.1919-5.9.1997); at a pro-life meeting in 1986 in Bonn, Germany (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
(published in Vishwa Sandesh)

The For Profit Sector
By Paramendra Bhagat (www.paramendra.com)

More than 80% of the people in America work for private companies. That is how they put food on the table. Another 15% or so work for the government. This economy requires 5% of the people to stay unemployed if it is to have a robust labor market. As in, a 100% employment rate is highly undesirable. That is why governments deem it worth it to issue out unemployment benefits: keeps the labor market fluid. The non profit sector steps in for those who don’t receive unemployment benefits or welfare checks. And then there are the uncared for untouched by the private, public and non profit sectors. Those seek Mother Teresa. Sadly, that still leaves a segment of the population that is truly uncared for, especially so in the global context.

In poor countries the private sector might be weak, the public sector might be relatively too dominant and getting in the way, the non profit sector might be overly strained or barely existent. But even there most people work private sector jobs to put food on the table for their families. That includes the informal sector in countries like India. The informal sector of the Indian economy comprised of businesses that don’t hold licenses and don’t pay taxes is rather large. And then there is the mafia that also largely revolves around money making. In some countries of Latin America the drug mafia is so large it functions as a parallel government. The Mumbai origin Dawood Ibrahim is listed as one of the 40 richest people in the world.

In the scheme of things I think the royal throne goes to the entrepreneurs in their multitudes. Entrepreneurs are not rich, greedy people lording over the hapless. They are people who create wealth and jobs. They pay taxes with which governments invest in people’s education, health and infrastructure. Entrepreneurs literally create wealth out of thin air. Bill Gates’ 50 billion dollars is not money he stole from someone. Those 50 billion dollars simply did not exist before he came along. And good thing he is putting that money to good use through his foundation. He has been fighting poverty like he were some kind of a Maoist.

The corporation is one of the greatest inventions ever. And entrepreneurship makes sense for people in all income brackets. I am a huge fan of micro lending. Everyone deserves access to not only education and health but also credit.

Abraham Lincoln did what no entrepreneur could have: he ended slavery. And someone like Gandhi is both Lincoln and Mother Teresa. Muhammad Yunus of Bangladesh ran his enterprise like a non profit. There is no denying the role of the leaders of various sectors. But as a country like Nepal moves towards a decided economic focus, I think appreciation for entrepreneurship will have to take deep root in the culture.

A country like Nepal that has numerous communist parties and it looks like most of the major non communist parties also call themselves socialist, I think interesting concoctions can be imagined. You can have companies that are partly owned by the government, you can have companies that are majority owned by the government. But for the most part it is best if the government stays out.

A left leaning country runs the danger of wanting to kill the hen that lays the golden egg. Nehru was key to India’s independence, but he also gave the country his gift of socialism, which was well meaning, and perhaps made Cold War sense to him, but that has also meant the legacy of too much red tape and misallocated resources with India ending up with the much derided “Hindu rate of growth” for decades.

Unleashing the entrepreneurship potential of the new generation in Nepal is partly a policy challenge. Some warning signs are the mindless, xenophobic rhetoric against Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) that seems to have a permanent place among a segment of the Nepali political spectrum. The choice is clear. You can bring in foreign capital, or you can send away your workers to Dubai and Malaysia to labor in uncertain circumstances. After Baburam Bhattarai signed BIPPA, a pro FDI agreement, his own Deputy Prime Minister stood up against it to score cheap, misguided political points. I was perplexed. Hostility to FDI is a sure recipe to a perpetuation of poverty in Nepal. Is poverty what Nepali nationalism all about? As in, to lose poverty is to lose the essence of what Nepal is all about? Beats me.

China never tires of pointing out how much more FDI it attracts year after year as compared to India. FDI is not only a good thing, it is something any sensible country competes for. That includes the rich economies.

I would hope that the Maoists would learn to respect entrepreneurs the way they have worked hard to accept other political parties. Their pro poor origins would be best reflected in the resources they should be able to marshal for education, health and infrastructure. Get the literacy rate up dramatically, up the vaccination rates. Train tens of thousands of health care workers and send them out to the villages, Mao style. But do not kill the hen that lays the golden egg. Let entrepreneurs run full speed.
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Saturday, February 02, 2013

The Former Chief Justice Would Be Least Controversial


The president should go ahead and appoint him. But polls can not be taken to November. They have to be conducted by June.

Ram Baran Yadav Should Go For It
Former Chief Justice Ram Prasad Shrestha
A Non Political PM?
A Non Political Cabinet Of Technocrats



Now or never: Dahal to opposition parties
Nepalis can now get foreign loans of up to $200,000
Read Shah Rukh Khan's article which appeared in Outlook Turning Points 2013
Bollywood's Shah Rukh Khan in spat over Muslim remarks

WorldLink introduces faster Internet

Dahal says his party ready for sacrifice
UCPN (Maoist) concludes district-level convention in 50 districts

Prez renews consultations with major parties
UDMF forms taskforce for people's mobilization
रामशरण महतसंग-23.01.13

Nepal risks being blacklisted: US envoy
UDMF no to alliance with UCPN (Maoist) for polls
Oppn parties unveil protest plans in valley

UCPN (Maoist) GC: Dahal's quest for regaining past strength
Watch your mouth, Koirala tells Dahal
NSU asks NC to hold GC in April
Jha assures resumption of closed factories
जसको नेतृत्व पनि स्वीकार्य: दाहाल
कांग्रेससहित ५३ दलले आयव्यय विवरण लुकाए
मैले प्रधानमन्त्री बन्छु भनेर ठट्टा गरेको : दाहाल

Businesses stunned as ruling party launches extortion drive
The business community has long demanded that donation campaigns launched by political parties be governed by law, with a cap on donation amount.
Clash looms as Maoists, oppn gear up for show of strength in Dailekh
NC won't bow to Maoist threats: Koirala

UDMF divided over continuing in govt

Dahal lays claim to PM post
Dahal hatching conspiracy to become PM
भट्टराईकै सामू दाहालले भने, 'प्रधानमन्त्री हुन तयार छु'

अध्यादेशको औचित्य छैन: संविधानविद्
दलहरुबीच सहमति भएर चुनावी सरकार बने धारा १५८ को बाधा अड्काउ फुकाउ प्रयोग गरि अड्किएका सवै विषयको गाँठो एकैपटक फुकाउने आफ्नो योजना रहेको राष्ट्रपतिले आफू निकटहरुसँग बताउने गरेका छन्। .... संविधानमा सन्तुष्ट भएमा राष्ट्रपतिले अध्यादेश जारी गर्न सक्ने उल्लेख छ।
Maoists ready for utmost flexibility over polls: Dahal
Bhattarai maintained that opposition parties were fearful of fresh elections and lambasted them for seeking power without winning elections. "There is no history in any country of an opposition party being handed the government leadership without holding elections," he added. He vowed to hold elections in May at any cost.
TRC to address cases related to insurgency: Minister Pun
an ordinance related to formation of TRC which is pending at the president’s office. .... around 32 countries have already formed TRC
DPM for law that bans protests at industries
increasing incidents of extortion in the pretext of raising funds for political parties have threatened the business community.
China becomes Nepal's fourth largest importer
more than 250 percent rise in exports to the northern neighbor..... massive commercialization of medicinal herbs farming in western parts of the country, sharp rise in demand for medicinal herbs, and hide and skins from mainland China .... China emerged as the fourth largest export market for Nepal after India, the USA and Bangladesh over first five months of 2012/13. ..... Yarshagumba is the major medicinal herb exported to China .... China´s liberal trade policy and positive impact of trade fairs between the two countries helped boost Nepal´s trade with the world´s second largest economy. .... Top five exports to China Medicinal herbs (+478%) Animal Hide and skin (+376%) Wheat flour by (+203%) Metal statutes by (+406%) Carpet by (+479%)
US interest in CPN-Maoist increases: Baidya
"It is possible to form separate joint fronts -- nationalist and federalist. But bringing them in one place will be a very big challenge"
Party ready for CA revival or fresh polls: Dahal
In a long and fiery speech against the opposition parties .... "Those against the decision to transform the country into a secular and federal system are trying to turn the clock back. So be prepared to fight such elements” ..... Dahal claimed that the CA was dissolved without producing the new constitution as NC and CPN-UML stood against identity-based federalism. ..... “They accepted federalism but not its essence.” ..... Dahal also accused NC and UML of betraying him and his party by not keeping their "promise to agree on the disputes in constitution writing within couple of days after the Maoists leaders would help integrate former Maoist combatants into the security agencies." ..... He claimed they [Maoists] took a bold decision to integrate the former combatants even as there was strong protest within his party. ..... "NC and UML leaders clearly said that there will be a bloodbath in the CA if the disputed issues are floated in the full House for voting," he said. He argued that the opposition parties stood against putting the issues to vote sensing that there was a two-thirds majority in favor of identity-based federalism.
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Saturday, January 19, 2013

The FDRA's Options



Considering what the NC and the UML are doing, and what the president has been doing, what are the FDRA's options?

(1) The UCPN(M) Should Transform The CPN(M), Not The Other Way Round

Some recent comments by Prachanda can be understood in terms of him competing politically with Baidya who is further to the left than Prachanda. It is understandable that he feels the compulsion. But the solution is not Prachanda becoming more like Baidya. The solution is to attempt political fusion.

Any revival of the YCL will risk a relabeling of the Maoists as terrorists by the US. Getting rid of that label was hard work. The Maoists should not do anything to get that label back. The Maoists going back to their old ways would be the surest way to undo the 2006 revolution.

Instead there should be an agreement on people's revolt - getting people out into the streets - as a legitimate political weapon. More important, the Maoists should take a stand that Nepal has to be turned into a multi-party democracy of state funded parties. That would give Nepal a political system unlike that in India, Britain, America or China. That political fusion is the solution to the Baidya-Baburam tussle. I am surprised Baburam is not waging a more vicious ideological struggle.

(2) Maoist Unification, Madhesi Unification

The two Maoist parties should seek to unite. All Madhesi parties should become one party. That would be best for the cause of federalism. That would also be good for post constitution writing. A two party alliance of the Maoists and the Madhesis would make it possible for Baburam to do in Nepal what Nitish is doing in Bihar.

(3) Home To NC, Finance To UML

The FDRA should make it public that that is as far as it is willing to go to form an all party government. That or the FDRA would launch a mass movement to pressure the president to pass the election related ordinances.

(4) Showing The Ceremonial President His Place

The president can not actively engage in politics. That is what he has been doing. The FDRA could boycott all meetings called by the president until he passes the election related ordinances. And the FDRA should get out into the streets. Mass meetings and mass street demonstrations would be a good idea. I mean, I am sad street action has become necessary. But if that is what the anti-federalists want, that is what they should get. Street demonstrations would be enough. Prachanda does not have to talk about reviving the YCL or the parallel government. For one, such talk will likely break up the FDRA. That is a no no.

No private schools in Valley next academic session
Mayors hail Hillary Clinton for 2016
Govt appoints consultant to design social security schemes
I will transform India, Rahul Gandhi says
'No reviving people's govt, people's courts, army'
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Sunday, December 02, 2012

Broadening The Ruling Alliance


Dahal is an option. Mahantha Thakur is an option. It does not have to be Baburam Bhattarai, although I don't see why not?

The UML is supporting the NC candidate. But that is not enough to move the ball in the NC's favor.

The only thing the parties agree on is they don't want a non political PM.

The president can not unilaterally take action. Which means Baburam Bhattarai can not be forced to resign. And he is only willing to resign if there is a consensus on a new name. But that consensus can not be a dictation by the NC. That consensus has to have Maoist participation, a simple fact that the NC does not seem to take into account.

The extreme inflexibility shown by the NC and the UML is as undemocratic as their stand against federalism even when two thirds of the constituent assembly had put down their signatures for it. To give in would be to accept defeat when defeat is highly unnecessary.

One unilateral action Baburam Bhattarai could take is induct Upendra Yadav as a Deputy PM and offer to make Ram Bahadur Thapa Badal a Deputy PM as well. I think such a step would reduce the NC, the UML and its supporting parties to a 20% strength or less.

If I were Baburam I would also induct Ashok Rai into the cabinet. That would be a blatant blow to the UML which is being quite unreasonable.

As a last resort the president has to pass the election related ordinances and let Baburam conduction elections in April 2013. I mean, why not? What will be another sound alternative?

If I were Baburam I would reach out to Upendra Yadav, Ram Bahadur Thapa Badal and Ashok Rai and get them to participate. That would put additional pressure on the president to pass on the election related ordinances.

रोकिएलान् राष्ट्रपति?
आफैंले काम चलाउ भनिसकेको सरकार बर्खास्त गर्ने संवैधानिक बाटो नरहेकोमा राष्ट्रपतिमा कुनै द्विविधा छैन।
‘मधेशी नेताबाट प्रधानमन्त्रीको सम्भावना छैन’
दलहरु गम्भीर छलफलमा जुटेनन् सहमति नभए सबै विफल हुने राष्ट्रपतिको चिन्ता
राष्ट्रपति रामवरण यादवले थपिएको सात दिनभित्र राजनीतिक दलहरुले राष्ट्रिय सहमतिको सरकार गठनबारे ठोस सहमति नजुटाए दलहरुसंगै आफु पनि विफल हुने चिन्ता व्यक्त गरेका छन्।
सहमतीय सरकारको नेतृत्वबारे दलहरुबीच विवाद
राष्ट्रपति रामवरण यादवले अहिलेकै सरकारलाई राष्ट्रिय सहमतीय सरकार बनाउन सकिने प्रतिक्रिया दिएको भोलिपल्ट सत्तापक्षीय र विपक्षी दलहरुबीच सहमतीय सरकारको नेतृत्व बारेको विवाद झनै चर्किएको छ। .... अहिलेकै सरकारमा सबैको सहमति भए सुनमा सुगन्ध हुने भन्ने राष्ट्रपतिको प्रतिक्रिया सार्वजनिक भएको भोलिपल्ट दलहरुबीचको विवाद बढेको देखियो।
सुशील कोइरालासंग-28.11.12
Bhattarai to lead national consensus govt: UCPN (Maoist)
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Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Mahantha Thakur For PM


The Maoists will not agree to any NC or UML person. The NC and the UML will not agree to any Maoist name. But none of those three parties have said they will not agree to the Mahantha Thakur name. Perhaps efforts should be made to get all parties to coalesce around the Mahantha Thakur name.
 
Prez to extend deadline if parties fail to forge consensus
Five days on, consensus on new prime ministerial candidate remains elusive as ruling parties have rejected to give government leadership to both Nepali Congress and CPN-UML, the two main opposition parties. The ruling UCPN (Maoist) has announced that they were ready to offer alternative candidate from within the ruling alliance if there was no consensus on Baburam Bhattarai, but not ready to give away leadership to the opposition parties.
UML rejects Maoists leading new govt

Nepal has 26m plus people
Koirala lobbies for PM post, Poudel dismayed
Prez can't exercise executive power on his own: PM
Delineation of election constituencies is not a big deal: EC
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