Sunday, September 18, 2005

Options For The Maoists And The Democrats

The obstinate Monarchists are hellbent on bringing the Maoist ceasefire to an end. They are utterly puzzled by the move. This is the worst piece of news they have had since 2/1. They basically don't know how to respond.

I have a few suggestions for the Maoists and the Democrats. (Alliance Of Steel)

To: The Maoists

If bringing your ceasefire to an end were not in the interests of the RNA honchos, they would not be trying so hard. These hardliner Monarchists have been dealt a serious blow by the ceasefire. No matter what you do, do not break the ceasefire. If you break it, you play into their hands. Pull back your troops if you have to. Take them all into the jungles away from possibilities of direct confrontations with the RNA if you have to. Your success lies in sticking to the ceasefire. If your entire strategy is that the Monarchists will do the sensible thing, you will not be acting that smart. Expect them to make the wrong and the dumb moves. Expect them to act unreasonable. Make room for all that.

Your ceasefire is the reason the king cancelled his trip to the UN. You have scored a major global victory already. Don't now squander it.

Launch a new, almost independent political wing/party if you have to for a massive nationwide organizational effort. Set up committees in all the villages. Like the IRA had a political wing, and a military wing.

Work on an alliance with the Democrats.

And do not place all your bets on a UN involvement. Unless the regime wants it, the UN can not get involved. So there has to be a strategy for success even if the regime does not come along. The Maoist-Democrat alliance might have to do the work the UN might otherwise have done. Are you up for it?

A major human rights activist informed me a few days back that Nepal is not a signatory to the Internatioal Criminal Court, so the Hague is not an option. On the other hand, the UN does have the authority to set up a country tribunal. Similar stuff.

To: The Democrats

To get offended that the Maoists are an armed group is like saying I am offended the night is dark, the sun is hot, and the air is windy. The news is not that the Maoists are an armed group, but that they have already made an ideological move away from that, and they are also eager to implement the same in practice, but for that they need at least one of the other two camps to cooperate. If both the Monarchists and the Democrats were to ignore the major move they have made in the form of this ceasefire, at some point down the line, sooner rather than later, they will call off the ceasefire, and the next round of the civil war will likely be more vicious. That is my analysis. That will be a disaster. That will be a serious blow to our plans of making this a decisive winter. If the Maoists are back up in arms, we will have less political space for our movement. Why would we want that?

Don't play into the hands of the Monarchist hardliners. Engage the Maoists in a serious, respectful dialogue. It would be a serious mistake to think their ideological transformation away from the classic Maoist emphasis on the gun is a weakness on their part. It would be a serious mistake to think their ceasefire has been declared from a position of weakness. The truth is they have taken these two major moves after some major internal analysis. It is important to respect that. Just look at the major political victories they have scored through the ceasefire. Their move is not weak, rather it is smart. Very smart. The proof is in the pudding.

As long as they can work at least with us, they are less likely to allow the Monarchists to push them away from the ceasefire. And we can not afford an end to the ceasefire. So let's act like it.

Get engaged, and stay engaged.

As for the protests, we might need a rethink there.

I have been on record suggesting the strategy should be to
Take Over Tundikhel. But the regime has been putting all its effors into denying us that segment of the town. So why not alter our strategy? Instead of Tundikhel, why not target New Road?

Create an artificial lake of people. When you dam a stream, the valley turns into a lake. You go to the police line, and then stop. Do not get adversarial with the police. Instead, at the frontlines have smooth talkers who will engage the police front lines in small talk. And encourage a buildup behind that line. It can be all of New Road, and as many adjoining streets as possible. Jampack.

We have to treat the police officers as people that soon our interim government will be commanding. We should thus not treat them like they were our enemies. Our strategy should be to push a wedge between the police and the regime, then between the bureaucracy and the regime, then finally between the army and the regime. Puncture the monarchists' tires. Push the pins. The police, the bureaucracy and the army all belong to us, to the people. Those are all people on the people's payrolls. Let's start acting like it.

The roads might be better than Tundikhel. The police can not disperse a New Road crowd as it might a Tundikhel crowd. It is easier to reach to the demonstrators with supplies like food items in a New Road setting than it might be in a Tundikhel setting. People can take pictures from inside their homes. And download them and upload them without leaving their homes.

Protest smart. Outthink the opponent.

But this is for when we decide on a decisive struggle. Before we can do that, we need to form a formal seven person committee. I think the names are obvious. Girija Koirala, Madhav Nepal, Gopal Man Shrestha, Bharat Bimal Yadav, Narayan Man Bijukchhe, CP Mainali, and Amik Sherchan. Going by the media photos. That seven person committee chooses its leader. If they decide on Girija Koirala, fine by me. If they decide on Madhav Nepal, fine by me. But that has to be decided now. That seven person committee is the interim government in waiting, and the chosen leader is the interim Prime Minister in waiting, and the leader of the movement. I mean, informally there is a sort of understanding. But a formal decision has to be taken now. So as to make the movement totally focused.

Once the committee and the leader have been formally decided upon, then a program has to be agreed upon. I have suggested a 10-point program here: Alliance Of Steel. But if that is too comprehensive, we can come up with a shorter 5-point program. Let that seven person committee finalize the program. You need such a program to ignite the imagination of the masses. Once ignited, the masses will show up, and there will be no stopping them.

Once we have an interim government in waiting, a single leader, and a clear program, then it will be time to go for a decisive showdown.

And that is when we create our artificial lake of people starting out at New Road. Forget Tundikhel.

How do you like this?

The King, The Army, The Ceasefire
Beyond Royal Rule: An ICG Report
Down With The Monarchy
The Obstinate Monarchists
Caution: Alliance Approaching
Irresponsible Response To Ceasefire
Prachanda, Do Not Break The Ceasefire
Positive Signs
The King Should Now Move To Step 2
King Cancels UN Visit
To Trust Or Not To Trust The Maoists
The Nepali Rasputins Want A Revolution
RNA, Declare Your Own Ceasefire, You Have No Choice
After Ganapathy, A Ceasefire
What Is Prachanda Doing?
Is Prachanda For Real?
To: Dr. Baburam Bhattarai
Baburam Bhattarai, Pramod Aryal, Ram Chandra Poudel

In The News
  • Supreme Court issues show cause notice to RCCC NepalNews ..... demanding reasons for detaining former Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba and former Minister Prakash Man Singh.
  • Maoists abduct over 60 teachers Notwithstanding their call of a three-month long unilateral ceasefire, Maoists have abducted at least 60 teachers from different schools of Morang district....... The whereabouts of the abducted teachers is still unknown.
  • Shahi rules out dialogue with Maoists One day after the Royal Nepalese army described the unilateral truce declared by the Maoist as a ploy, Home Minister Dan Bahadur Shahi, Saturday categorically ruled out any prospect of the government opening talks with the Maoists ....... also ruled out any chances of the government announcing a ceasefire on its part saying that Maoists have in the past used ceasefire as a break to accumulate arms and cash...... adamant on the government's stance that talks cannot be possible unless they (Maoists) submit their arms and ammunition....... Shahi also added that the government would not mind going for an election to the constituent assembly if the Maoists come with a serious state of mind.
  • Pro-democracy demonstration in the US
  • SC scraps court of contempt case against Kantipur Kantipur
  • Kantipur threatened again In what appears to be an attempt to threaten the pro-democracy media houses, Kantipur Publication has received another threat from Pralhad Sah, secretary of the organizing committee of the forthcoming pro-king gathering in the eastern region...... "Kantipur Publications may face a repetition of the devastation of September 1," he warned. .... Sah's threat comes few days after Hindu fundamentalist Shiva Sena issued a similar warning here...... On September 1, 2004, a mob of miscreants had attacked Kantipur Publications and demolished its property worth millions of rupees.
  • SC issues show cause notice on Deuba case
  • Authorities detain Kantipur correspondent in Dailekh
  • NRN ordinance positive, says Mahato
  • 16 countries decide to develop Lumbini as a World Peace City Nepal, Japan, India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Korea, Singapore and Thailand.
  • Nepalis in US stage pro-democracy demonstration
  • Nepal urges Maoists to give up guns Gorkhapatra, Nepal
  • Talks with Maoists going on: Nepal Kathmandu Post Madhav Kumar Nepal, has revealed that talks with Maoists are already underway..... dialogues with the rebels are being held in order to use the ceasefire period to transform it into a long lasting peace .... "Talks are underway and we are looking for a common package after doing away with all the impediments" ...... the present government was afraid after the sudden announcement of ceasefire by Maoists. "The autocrats are not willing to reciprocate as yet, but are hell-bent on using force in the name of resolving the crisis in order to prolong their tenure." .... "The troubled government due to the public's countrywide protests might do anything to political parties and those who support the people's movement"
  • Nepali Congress (D) to monitor ceasefire .... urged Maoist rebels to stop all violence -- murder, intimidation and extortion, so as to create a conducive environment ..... create an atmosphere for the unhindered return of displaced people to their homes and for smooth functioning of political parties' activities ...... flayed the government for failing to respond to the Maoist ceasefire positively. "This has established that the present regime is against peace, and is going against the people's will." ...... party also decided to monitor the ceasefire through its central representatives deployed in all 75 districts ......
  • Parties burn effigies in valley
  • Rights groups condemn police brutality
  • ‘Civil servants’ agitation justified’
  • Nepal says talks only after Maoists surrender arms:- Webindia123, India ...... Nepal government has ruled out peace talks with the Maoist rebels ...... there can be no dialogue unless the outlaws lay down arms ..... Dan Bahadur Shahi said the government could hold a roundtable conference with the guerrillas and discuss political issues only after they surrendered arms ...... ruled out the government reciprocating the rebel gesture by offering a truce...... "Despite the so-called ceasefire, atrocities like kidnapping, extortion and forcible recruitment continue...... So there is no question of the government following suit." ..... "In the past too, they have repeatedly announced ceasefires and called them off..... So there is no basis to trust them." The Maoists too, on their part, have said they would hold talks with the opposition parties and members of civil society but there was little possibility of a dialogue with the government...... "We will hold talks with the government only if the king returns the power he has usurped," Maoist supremo.... the rebels have continued abducting people for forcible recruitment, have been looting vehicles on the highways and mining roads.
  • Nepal on the brink as protests against monarchy intensify Sunday Herald the 40-year-old unemployed hotel worker said: “I’ve been coming here every day as I want the king to go. He does nothing for us.... “People are out fighting for their rights,” said Suvash Darnal, leader of the Collective Campaign for Peace (COCAP), a network which includes associations of teachers, doctors, lawyers, journalists, civil rights groups and trade unions....... COCAP estimates that more than 2000 arrests have taken place in the last two weeks. Police frequently use violence to intimidate activists, said Darnal......... “They are systematically beating peaceful demonstrators. Police are using weapons and tear gas but the more violent they become the more our numbers increase.”..... Protests against the king intensified when Maoist rebels declared a unilateral three-month ceasefire on September 3, to which the monarchy refused to respond........ The palace looks increasingly isolated as opposition parties, civil rights groups, and the rebels demand an end to the king’s rule....... “This is the first time that Nepalese civil society has spontaneously come out into the streets,” he said, pointing to reports of protests spreading to other parts of the country ..... Analysts believe that the monarchy has little interest in a return to democracy despite having fewer and fewer friends at home or abroad....... All opposition parties support the Maoists’ demand for UN involvement in brokering and monitoring a ceasefire....... “The king is waiting for something to happen but there will be chaos if he does not act soon” ..... “This situation can’t last much longer” ...... warning of a potentially violent crackdown by the army....... “The international community should be making urgent contingency plans. The monarchy’s days of direct rule appear to be numbered . As the pressure mounts there is a real risk of a bloody upheaval.” ........ the greatest risk of violence is from the king’s staunchest supporters, the army ...... “None of them were very happy with the democracy we had in the 1990s and they’ve helped to dismantle it ever since” ...... “The government is not responding, which means they don’t want to talk. They want to solve the problem with guns

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Very Funny....