Thursday, September 08, 2005

Prachanda, Do Not Break The Ceasefire

If you break the ceasefire, you will be playing into the hands of the Monarchists, people who have no intention whatsoever to go for a Constituent Assembly. They will do all possible to make you break the ceasefire short of an all out military offensive. They will wage a media fight as they already have. They will spread rumors. They will spread falsities. Fight these things politically and with words, and wage your own media fight. Do not cave in.

The ceasefire has made a strong Maoist-Democrat alliance possible like never before. And the Monarchists are not liking it. They know such an alliance means doom to them. These Monarchists will not have any political career for the rest of their lives after democracy. They fear that eventuality and would like to postpone it as much as possible. If you break the ceasefire, you help them. So do not do it.

Sure, there have been a few incidents here and there, even a major fight of a few hours. But that does not amount to a breakdown of the ceasefire.

They attacked you in the state media by trying to make you look like an Indian stooge. You immediately hit back saying their allegations are not true. That is the spirit. Hit back like that every time you get hit with falsities. It is called rapid response. When they spread lies about you, and you don't speak up, people end up believing the lies. Do not let that happen.

Your goal is peace, democracy and progress. Your method is a Constituent Assembly. That Assembly can be achieved with or without the Monarchists. But it can not be achieved without the seven parties. A Maoist-Democrat alliance is in sight. The Monarchists are tempting you to break the ceasefire so the possibilities of such an alliance can be scuttled, and if such an alliance does not form, they do not have to face a Constituent Assembly.

So, watch out. Don't become your enemy's friend by playing into their hands. Be my friend. Be a friend to the democrats. We are under physical assualt on a daily basis as we speak.

No matter what you do,
DO NOT break the ceasefire. Be the democrat's friend, do not become the Monarchist's friend. We are not attched to the monarchy, but we are attached to democracy. We are so attached to democracy, we would be willing to confront you for that, as we are willing to confront the monarch. I trust your commitment to a Democratic Republic, but we have to be careful about the steps leading to the Assembly.

You did the ceasefire thing for the democrats, not for the Monarchists. Don't let them steal the gift that is meant for us.

The RNA can not legitimately organize a major military offensive on a PLA that has declared a ceasefire. If they do, they end up at the Hague. So do not, do not break the ceasefire. Play smart. Do not let them mess up your smartest move to date.

Continuing with the ceasefire is also a way to win the hearts of the RNA foot soldiers who joined the RNA for the salary, not to die. They are all janata ko chhora. They are not ideologue Monarchists. See that distinction.

Do not, do not break the ceasefire.

In The News
  • Maoist chairman warns of breaking ceasefire NepalNews ..... Prachanda referred to incidences including arrest of three pro-Maoist cadres affiliated to Tharuwan in the mid-western district of Banke and attack on Maoist cadres in Jajarkot. ...... On the other hand, the Royal Nepalese Army (RNA) has alleged the Maoists of engaging in violent activities even after declaring unilateral ceasefire. The RNA said the insurgents have abducted Karma Raj Budha and his wife from Ranga Gaon in Dolpa district, some students from a school at Tringra Gaon in Mugu district and five civilians from Ridikot and Sera ilaka from far-western district of Achham........ The rebels have abducted an unarmed policeman from Hapure ilaka in Dang district on Monday, the army said...... The last ceasefire between the government and Maoists broke off from Hapure in Dang three years ago.
  • FM Pandey to lead Nepali delegation in UN assembly
  • Court continues hearings on RCCC, Parajuli case
  • Dozens arrested from seven-party protests in Kathmandu
  • Indian ambassador meets Koirala
  • Telephone services disrupted in Eastern districts
  • Court can’t examine the royal order: RCCC “The (royal) order cannot be examined by the apex court under Article 88 (1) of the constitution. The apex court can only examine the legislation made by the parliament but not the orders issued by the King under Article 127.” ..... Experts, however, say the country’s constitution explicitly outlines the role and responsibility of a constitutional monarch, not an executive monarch..... “The formation order of the RCCC under Article 127 of the Constitution and the constitution itself states that such an order has to be produced before the parliament. This is a matter to be delved into by the legislature and not to be examined by the apex court.” ...... Saying that the King is the protector of the Constitution and that he has the authority to issue such an order, the RCCC said since we are working as per the King’s order, there is no question to be settled by the apex court....... Critics say to empower a single entity with all such powers is simply against the principle of natural justice.
  • Nepal anti-king protests continue, dozens detained Reuters AlertNet, UK as many as 6,000 demonstrators who rallied in an open square in the capital where the royal government has banned gatherings and demonstrations. ...... The protestors chanted “Long live democracy”, “Down with autocracy” and “We want a republic system in Nepal”...... and in August they said they would hold talks with the Maoists on forming a broad front against Gyanendra, provided the rebels stop killing civilians, as they have promised.....The 82-year-old Koirala who fainted during a scuffle with police when protesters tried to break through a police cordon
  • Nepal protesters clash with police Calcutta Telegraph
  • Dozens held in violent Nepal protests Gulf Times
  • UN trip cancellation costs Nepal king dear: the cancellation will cost the state exchequer dear ...... the king decided to put off his visit at the last moment due to the increasing cold shoulder by the various international leaders with whom he had sought a bilateral meeting........ an American event organiser in New York, entrusted with arranging the dinner bash, is demanding $25,000 from the cash-strapped Nepal government ...... The government had already paid American P. Cohen $25,000 for the initial arrangements .... He had booked the venue, organised the catering and even sent out the invitations ..... Now Cohen is demanding the government pay him another $25,000 ...... the arrangements were coordinated by the Nepal Tourism Board (NTB) ..... Nepal is one of the poorest countries .... faces a financing gap of $7.6 billion..... the palace had entrusted a former prime and royalist the task of organising a mammoth pro-king rally here on the eve of Gyanendra's departure for the UN. ..... Former prime minister Marich Man Singh was to have gathered 50,000 demonstrators to take out a rally .... The rally was to have been in answer to the protests by opposition parties in the capital
  • US proposes sanctuary for Tibetan refugees from Nepal:, India Tibetan refugees from Nepal will be provided sanctuary and resettled in the US under a new programme proposed by the George W. Bush administration and slated to start next year.
  • War by other means Asia Times Online, Hong Kong The shift in Maoist strategy that had been emerging since June has now crystallized in what is evidently a tactical and – for Kathmandu – deeply unsettling unilateral declaration of ceasefire........ the Maoists have launched the next phase of their strategic advance, seeking a more complete polarization of political forces in Nepal, with King Gyanendra increasingly pitted against all others....... The present unilateral truce can be expected to herald a process of feverish overground mobilization and political activity, even as the Maoists continue with a process of quiet military recovery and consolidation. In this, the Maoists would exploit the persistent and widespread misconception that the insurgency "had to be eventually resolved through negotiations"........ The monarchy is now – infinitely more than it was before February 1 – regarded as an anachronism, and the only relevant consideration remaining appears to be to define the terms of its dissolution........ Koirala echoed the Marxists: "The days of the king are gone. Now his days at the throne are numbered, you can start counting his days." ....... war, as Carl von Clauswitz remarked, is just "the continuation of politics by other means". What is being engineered in Nepal is, at once, both military and political, and there is not the remotest possibility of excluding one or the other from the evolving dynamic....... The current ceasefire is a link in a chain of initiatives that seeks the de facto transformation of the prevailing equation of power and of the status of the rebel group in Nepal, and this is consistent with the circumstances that have emerged out of each phase of "peaceful negotiations" in the past........ Both war and peace are now conditions imposed by them, demonstrating fairly clearly where the initiative and control is located in the present conflict. ....... it appears to have at least an implicit Indian catalyst, and is believed to have emerged from the "consultations" between leaders of India's left parties, partners in the ruling coalition at Delhi, and the top Maoist leadership, which was brought to the Indian capital under obvious intelligence cover in May. The king's obduracy has been substantially to blame for the evolving shift in the Indian position ........ you simply have to deal with the Maoists – their power is a fact ...... a belief that a prolonged process of negotiations and possible participation of the Maoists in the political order or political processes in Kathmandu will moderate the orientation of at least some of their leaders and transform their goals.......... Gyanendra has lent himself further to the process of Maoist consolidation in Nepal, forcing the hapless political parties into Prachanda's arms ....... Having painted himself into a corner as far as all his potential "natural allies", both within the country and in the international community, are concerned, the king now stands utterly isolated – unless he chooses an uncharacteristic and dramatic retreat from positions he has intransigently held since his takeover on February 1.......... For those who see in the Maoist ceasefire an offer in good faith of peaceful or political resolution, it is of vital importance to note that the announcement came within two days of a joint statement by the Nepalese and Indian Maoists (under the signature of Prachanda and Ganapathy, the general secretary of the central committee of the Communist Party of India – Maoist) reiterating their "pledge to fight unitedly till the entire conspiracies hatched by the imperialists and reactionaries are crushed and the people's cause of socialism and communism are established in Nepal, India and all over the world"......... The Indian state of Andhra Pradesh is still staggering under the consequences of an ill-considered period of a false peace and a deceitful process of "negotiations", which the Maoists exploited to further consolidate their position both within Andhra and in neighboring states, before they unleashed a campaign of escalating violence......... the weak blandishments and importunities of politically marginalized parties in Nepal, or by the patternless plotting of vacillating states and their agencies that cannot even begin to consistently define the outcome they seek to secure
  • Maoist Cease-fire Who’s Falling Into Whose Trap Gorkhapatra, Nepal the Maoists, while launching their armed rebellion in 1995, had declared the establishment of a republic in Nepal as its main objective........ Even international partners against terrorism like the U.S, U.K. and India are being forced to reconsider their stands on the Maoists....... Popular belief that India has the largest say in controlling the Maoist movement in Nepal is being proven to be a fact........ Or could it even be that the Maoists have managed to snare India in its web of lies and deceit? Or is it the political parties playing the Maoists in their quest for power? ........ Initially, the establishment of a constituent assembly was made the minimum meeting point. And when the parties were fooled into agreeing to this, they raised the stakes by making a “Democratic Republic” as the minimum meeting point to jointly work against the state......... ostensibly in anticipation of the upcoming Dashain festival, while the same did not warrant consideration in the past 2-3 Dashains. The state’s preparation to attend the UN General Assembly and the international support that could have been garnered in the fight against terrorism must have been the primary reason for the timing of the declaration.......... this truce has also been declared on a high note, soon after their apparent success at Pili, which was a crucial morale booster....... The absence of any concrete demand for a negotiated settlement in its 2-page communiqué indicates that the Maoists will use this period to regroup, rearm and reorganise its depleted resources. Their prime objective of having the state alter its scheduled visit to the UN having been met, the people’s opinion towards its move also made favourable to some extent, the next objective in its scheme would be to infiltrate the ongoing streets protests into violence and influence its outcome to assist attainment of their ultimate goal of a People’s Republic.......... That the truce will be broken citing refusal for talks by the state and non-cooperation from the political parties is a foregone conclusion. After achieving a majority of their strategic goals to rejuvenate their cadres, reestablish their urban network, replenish their supply of arms, and prepare for yet another stretch of extended terror tactics, they are sure to leave all those that lay claim in facilitating the ceasefire wondering how they were taken for a three-month ride.
  • The Prachanda Path Towards Urban Insurrection Dissident Voice, CA a three-month ceasefire. This is particularly significant in that the move is a unilateral one. ......Royal Nepali Army, which is reportedly unhappy with the war and the king....... , seem less concerned with the government’s response than with the reaction of the mainstream political parties sidelined and abused since the king’s February 1 coup. ........ two ceasefires since the People’s War began in 1996--- from June to November 2001 and January to June 2003........ the Maoists control about 80% of the country. They already operate as a government (of the People’s Republic of Nepal) and from a position of strength have simply announced that they will conduct no offensive actions through November. ...... In past peace talks, the Maoists’ insisted on the convening of a national assembly to fashion a new constitution as their condition for ending the revolutionary war. They shelved their initial demand for the abolition of the monarchy, but talks deadlocked when the king and the parliamentary parties refused to abandon the current constitution. ........ the five radio stations broadcasting from Maoist turf stayed on the air. ..... Now, Gyanendra’s worst fear is a united front of the Maoists and the mainstream parties. The likelihood of that might be reduced if the Supreme Court rules in favor of the Nepali Congress Party, which has filed a lawsuit demanding the restoration of the legislature---something the politicians want but the Maoists consider pointless. ..... The party presence in the capital and surrounding region (where most of the wealthy live) is reportedly weaker than in the provinces, although its student and women’s organizations are quite powerful in the city. A united front could provide conditions for a more powerful presence, even as a ceasefire allows the Maoists to further consolidate political power in the zones more or less under its control. The relationship between the People’s War in the countryside and the capital city of Kathmandu is the crucial issue as Nepal faces the very real prospect of revolution. ....... James Moriarty has warned that “Nepal is getting to the point where its very existence is at stake,” and in June raised the specter of guerrillas marching into downtown Kathmandu “within the next 12 to 14 months.” I assume he echoes the best U.S. intelligence on this issue........ The Maoist strategy involves protracted People’s War and the surrounding of cities from the countryside, where the communist-led forces establish base areas and liberated zones, expanding through the stages of strategic defensive, strategic equilibrium, and strategic offensive. The Maoists believe they are now in the last phase. ...... The Maoists plan to complement their conquest of the countryside with an urban insurrection....... the residents of Kathmandu won’t simply line the streets to meet columns of arriving guerrillas, but be active participants in an uprising during or before the latter’s advance. ...... the Prachanda Path is summed up in the slogan: “Let us consolidate and expand our base areas and move forwards towards a people’s government in the center.”........ Moriarty for his part told the Nepali press last month, “If I were a Maoist, I’d think I was making good progress... I would try to put differences between the parties and the palace, and get them to do the Maoist business of tearing down the political structure.” ........ They want a secular, socialist republic, radical land reform, universal education and medical care, equal rights for men and women and members of all ethnic groups, abolition of the caste system. But short term, they want a constitutional assembly, involving all parties......... a two-stage revolution, the first to attain limited objectives, the second more ambitious ....... massive rallies in Kathmandu involving both the alliance parties and the Maoists, and maybe defectors from the military and police, we will hear the death-knell of Nepal as a Hindu kingdom trapped in the Middle Ages. And then maybe, soon thereafter, the strains of the Internationale. ...... The U.S. press tends to ignore the Indian Maoists, but they too have been growing, acquiring broader support, consolidating organizationally, holding huge rallies, successfully calling for bandhs, creating guerrilla zones preparatory to establishing base areas, engaging in what they consider People’s War....... what’s been happening in Nepal since 1996 has been happening in India as well ......

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