Saturday, December 07, 2013

Federal Democratic Alliance: Too Little, Too Late

Madhesi Jana Adhikar Forum, Nepal
Madhesi Jana Adhikar Forum, Nepal (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
This Federal Democratic Alliance would have swept the country if it had been formed before the election in a way that there was only one FDA candidate in each of the 240 constituencies. Madhesi leaders in 30 political parties can not do the work of party unification but they want 13 million Madhesis to unite behind their cause? That is laughable. What was the expectation? That 13 million Madhesis will stand behind 30 Madhesi political parties all of whom were competing against each other?

March 2013: How The FDRA Could Bring In Baidya, Yadav, Rai
The FDRA's Options
The State Of Nepali Politics: A Diagram

There has been an obvious wrongdoing in the election mechanism. At least three million voters were kicked off the voter list. As for the elaborate sabotage that the Maoists are accusing of, I don't know. It feels as far fetched as the Nepali Congress claim in 2008 that the YCL basically handed over the election to the Maoists then.

I can see a little bit truth to both claims. But both claims in their extremes feel far-fetched. The YCL did some bulleying in 2008. Perhaps the army stuffed some boxes. But there was a major pro-Maoist wave in 2008. They were an untested bunch, and the people thought they might be radically different from the NC and the UML. But in power they did not act too different. And so that created an anti-incumbency wave.

The Madhesi parties went to the people wanting two states in the Terai. I see two states in the Terai being created by the new assembly.

The Maoists campaigned hard against the Madhesi parties in the Terai. The Madhesi parties campaigned hard against each other in the Terai. Ashok Rai went in solo. No wonder they all got poor results. The people wondered, if the Maoists and the Madhesis feel strongly about identity based federalism, why are they so against each other?

Madhesi Parties: 12 Lakh PR Votes

Now the best option is to go for six states - Eastern Terai, Western Terai, Koshi, Bagmati, Gandaki, Karnali - where half the MPs get elected from the Terai.

The Federalism Question: Maps

The attempt should be to form an all party government. The attempt should be that the Maoists get the Speaker position.

Then these parties should do internal homework.

Isn't this amazing? All these Madhesi parties will join the Maoist alliance, but they will still not talk about becoming one party? I find that mind boggling.

If they face the local and state elections in a fractured way like they faced the November election, they will fare just as bad.

UCPN (Maoist), other dissidents form new alliance
A group of 18 dissident political parties has formed a Federal Democratic Alliance (FDA) ..... UCPN (Maoist), Tarai-Madhes Democratic Party (TMDP), Madhesi People´s Rights Forum Nepal (MPRF-N), Federal Socialist Party Nepal (FSP-N), Sadbhavana Party, Tarai-Madhes Sadbhavana Party, MPRF-Republican, Tharuhat Tarai Party, Sanghiya Loktantrik Rastriya Manch, Rastriya Janamukti Party and Federal Sadbhavana Party ..... UCPN (Maoist) leaders have accused the Election Commission, the Nepal Army and "some other invisible forces" of perpetrating vote fraud under a plan to defeat Maoist candidates across the country. Maoist leaders said that the number of votes was manipulated while collecting the ballot boxes from the polling booths and bringing them to the vote counting centers.
Enhanced by Zemanta

Thursday, November 28, 2013

Consensus Government For A Consensus Constitution


President: Ram Baran Yadav. He gets to continue because that is what the interim constitution says.
Prime Minister: Sushil Koirala.
Deputy Prime Minister: KP Oli might feel it is his turn.
Ministers:
Congress 9
UML 7
Maoist 4
MJFD 1
MJFN 1
TMLP 1
SP 1

This would represent 499 out of 575 seats. That is a comfortable margin for constitution making.

It is important to bring the four forces together so as to ensure smooth constitution making. On the tricky issue of federalism, I think we can make do with six states, four in the Hills/Mountains, and two in the Terai, all of them with one word geographic names. That is how I am reading the people's mandate.
Enhanced by Zemanta