Democracy For Nepal

Sunday, November 24, 2013

One Madhesi Party Needed

The Madhesi parties have but one option left, and that is to become one party. If they don't go in that direction, they will fare worse in the next election than they did this time around.

How to unify the parties?

Step 1: For a unification committee. That would be composed of the top leaders, Gachhedar and Bharat Bimal, Hridayesh Tripathy and Mahantha Thakur, Mahendra Raya Yadav, Upendra Yadav, Rajendra Mahto. Seven would be enough. If your party did not win a seat, you don't sit on the committee, pure and simple. Make Mahantha Thakur the Sarbamanya Neta, and Gachhedar gets to be party president. Upendra Yadav and Rajendra Mahto can be Vice President. All seven get to sit on the party Politburo.

Then form a 31 member convention committee. There bring in the top leaders of all parties that got at least 20,000 votes. Hold a convention, preferably by April 2014. All office bearers until then are ad hoc. Conduct a massive membership drive. Come up with a new name for the party, a new party flag, a new election symbol, all of which will have to be approved by the general convention.

And that would be the way to go.

The convention committee should also include Janajati leaders, perhaps also people like Ashok Rai.

If this much work is done, and a unification convention is held and one unified party is thus born, the resulting party will easily emerge as the third or fourth largest in the country and will go past 25% strength in the next parliament. That party would ride the anti-incumbency wave in the local and state elections that will likely be held in less than two years. The party would bring forth several Chief Ministers.

The unified Madhesi party should have reservations in the central committee for Dalits, Muslims and women.

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Three Governments In Four Years

Prachanda Portrait (Photo credit: izahorsky)

Total Seats: 601
Nepali Congress 214
UML 205
Maoist 94
Kamal Thapa 33
RPP 16
Gachhedar 11
TMLP 10
Others 7
Nominated 26 (Give 10 to the Baidya group)

NC (214) + Maoist (94) = 308
UML (205) + Maoist (94) + Madhesi parties (23) = 322
NC (214) + UML (205) = 419
Maoist (94) + Kamal Thapa (33) + RPP (16) + Gachhedar (11) + TMLP (10) + Others (7) + Baidya (10) + Nominated (16) = 197 + NC
Maoist (94) + Kamal Thapa (33) + RPP (16) + Gachhedar (11) + TMLP (10) + Others (7) + Baidya (10) + Nominated (16) = 197 + UML
Maoist (94) + Gachhedar (11) + TMLP (10) + Others (7) + Baidya (10) + Nominated (16) = 148 + NC
Maoist (94) + Gachhedar (11) + TMLP (10) + Others (7) + Baidya (10) + Nominated (16) = 148 + UML

Political arithmetic shows the Maoists could come into power at least six different ways. In several such scenarios the Maoists could even be leading the government. Nepal has a tendency to get a new government every year. If this parliament is to last four years and the government changes every year, the Maoists could be in power for two of the four years. That is a distinct possibility.

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Prachanda Has Room To Play

Pushpa Kamal Dahal “Prachanda” at the Asia Society (Photo credit: Asia Society)

We have ended up at a scenario where the Maoist party could team up with either the NC or the UML and come into power. That gives us a lot of playing room for someone like Prachanda. You might disagree with his ideology and his worldview, but there is no denying Prachanda is a politically gifted individual. The next two weeks are going to be interesting to watch.

A NC-UML government is not a foregone conclusion.

The prime ministership to the NC, the presidency to the UML, the DPM position to the Maoists, the vice presidency to someone like Mahantha Thakur might be one fair scenario.

Despite a decisive verdict, the situation stays very much fluid. The parties should be creative about power, they also should be creative about federalism.

Projected Seats

English: This picture used to represent the Nepali Congress. This Picture based on Nepali Congress.png (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Nepali Congress 214
UML 205
Maoist 94
Kamal Thapa 33
RPP 16
Gachhedar 11
TMLP 10
Others 7
Nominated 26

The arithmetic makes a NC-Maoist, and a UML-Maoist government possible, not to say a NC-UML government. And the identity federalists might have dipped below the one third mark. That might bring forth some interesting tug of war on the federalism question. The Panche parties have done so much better than the Madhesi parties. Go figure.

The Madhesi parties have but one option: become one party or perish.

Good Options For Maoists And Madhesi Parties
A Majority Government Of The NC And The UML
Election 2013: The People Have Spoken

Friday, November 22, 2013

Good Options For Maoists And Madhesi Parties

Surya TV (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Getting Nepal a new constitution before 2014 is over is the most important task at hand. All other issues are secondary. Country before party, now and always. That has to be the goal of the NC and the UML. That also has to be the goal of the Maoists and the Madhesi parties.

The way things are shaping up, it might be possible for the NC to form a government that includes the Maoists and the Madhesis. I am simply pointing out the political arithmetic. There is a silver lining to the wide margin defeat of the Maoists. If the margin had been less wide, a NC-UML two party government would have been a foregone conclusion. But because the margins are wide and there was no pre-poll alliance between the NC and the UML, a NC-Maoist-Madhesi government also looks possible.

Or you could form a NC-Maoist government, and give the presidency to Mahantha Thakur and the speakership to the UML. Nembang, anyone?

Sushil Koirala for PM, Narayan Kaji or Mahara for DPM, Mahantha Thakur for president, Nembang for Speaker.

Both sides have to be flexible on the federalism question. I think we might be looking at about four states in the Terai and another four states in the Hills/Mountains. 30 Madhesi parties that have not been able to become one party do not have a moral right to talk about a single Madhesh pradesh, not anymore.

The two Maoists should unite. What will bring them together is a vision that Nepal will be made a multi-party democracy of state funded parties. How many votes you get in a national election will decide how much money you get from the state. And a party will have no other source of income. That agenda should be enough for the Baidya group to stop dreaming of another revolution.

All Madhesi parties should immediately start the exercise of launching a single Madhesi party.

If the two Maoist parties become one, and if the 30 Madhesi parties become one political party, these two parties will be the prime beneficiary of the local and state elections that will be held in perhaps April 2015. They will ride the anti-incumbency wave then. People like Hridayesh Tripathy who lost this election will show up as Chief Ministers perhaps.

That is the best bet for the Maoists and the Madhesis.

The most important lesson though is that the three million Nepalis who have been kicked off the voter list need to be brought back onto that list. That should be the number one gripe of the Maoists and the Madhesi parties, and they should do something about it.

It is easy math. There are 30 million people in Nepal. More than half of Nepal is less than 30 years old. Which means roughly half of the population is of voting age. So if there are 15 million Nepalis of voting age, and only 12 million were on the list, that means three million were disenfranchised. And those three million were mostly of the DaMaJaMa background. Which means most of those three million would have voted for the Maoists and the Madhesi parties.

The entire country and all parties have to work to get those three million onto the voter list. It's just wrong to disenfranchise people. In a country where elections are won and lost by a few thousand votes routinely, and often times with a few hundred votes, the impact of kicking three million people off the voter list can not be exaggerated.

A Majority Government Of The NC And The UML
Election 2013: The People Have Spoken

Thursday, November 21, 2013

A Majority Government Of The NC And The UML

Looks like the NC and the UML are on their way to forming a two party government. That will be interesting to watch. The two are neck and neck right now. So there's no telling who will be Prime Minister.

But the two parties will not get a two thirds majority. And so that leaves plenty of room for the identity federalists to have a say on the question. The two sides of the debate should fully express themselves, and then they should forge a compromise.

It would be best for the peace process if the NC and the UML acted generous and elected Prachanda as the president. Or they might go ahead and give Ram Baran Yadav another term! If the PM and DPM will be Pahadi, might as well have a Madhesi president.

Local and state elections have to be held by April 2015. If the Maoists and the Madhesi parties do their homework and learn their lessons, the electoral pendulum might swing their way then.

What homework can they do?

Prachanda and the Maoists to not have the option to get out of the process now. In that direction lies a dead end. They should continue to be part of the process. It is true that the status quoists in the bureaucracy and the judiciary have been staunchly against the identity federalists, and messing up with the list of voters was one rabbit they pulled out of the hat. The Maoists and the Madhesi parties might still have lost, but the margin of loss would not have been so dramatic.

Hridayesh Tripathy's radically gerrymandered electoral district is proof the Election Commission is status quoist.

There is still a stark need for a Truth And Reconciliation Commission so we can put the Civil War firmly behind us. That is necessary work.

The two Maoist parties should unite. And the recipe for that unity would be an attempt to turn Nepal into a multi-party democracy of state funded political parties. That would be a welcome attempt at classlessness. That move would turn Nepal into the top democracy on the planet, that also would signal that there is no more revolution in the future, there are only elections.

All the Madhesi parties should become one political party. To sing the song of One Madhesh, One Pradesh is hypocritical when you are split up into 30 different parties. And the way to do that is to organize a unity convention. If this move is made, that unified Madhesi party will do well in elections that will surely take place in over a year. That is not far.

The most important task right now is to give the country a constitution within a year. To that end all political parties must work, winners and losers alike. Electoral tally aside we are all winners. The country is about to get a legislative and an executive. The political vacuum is about to go away.

It is to be seen if Sushil Koirala or Jhalanath Khanal becomes Prime Minister. The two get the PM and the DPM and the cabinet. It would be generous to give the presidency to Prachanda or to Mahantha Thakur. That would make constitution making smoother. Because you still need a two thirds majority for the sticky issues. It would be smart for Prachanda to propose Mahantha Thakur's name. In a democracy, the majority rules, but it does not get to rub the nose of the minority in the dust.

I have a feeling we might be headed towards four states each in the Terai and the Hills. There is a danger the NC and the UML might overplay their hands and misread their simple majority for a two thirds majority, and we might end up seeing street action. That would be unfortunate. Compromise has to be the name of the game. Neither side will get all it wants. That knowledge has to be the starting point of the negotiations.

Also give six of the 26 nominated seats to the Baidya Maoists. That was a profound idea Prachanda came up with before the elections. That would be a small price to pay to keep the two Maoists part of the process.

Wednesday, November 20, 2013

Election 2013: The People Have Spoken

English: Election logo of Nepali Congress. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

One can already see the outlines of the election results.

There has been an anti-incumbency wave against the Maoists and the Madhesi parties, but that does not explain their full defeat. Two and a half million people have been disenfranchised. Those were people who would have mostly voted for the Maoists and the Madhesi parties.
The Nepali Congress and the UML have won rather decisively. But this is not a mandate against federalism. This is more a mandate for peace, law and order, the democratic process, and normalcy. And this is not any clear mandate against the identity based federalism that the Maoists and the Madhesis have been known for. The NC and the UML do not have even a simple majority, let alone a two thirds majority.
A coalition of non-Maoist parties will likely come into power. That might include Madhesi parties.
On the contentious issue of federalism the mandate is no different from what it was in the last constituent assembly, that the two sides need to work together and forge some sort of a compromise. Neither a purely identity based federalism nor a purely geographic federalism is in the cards.
There has been no conspiracy. The Maoists might still have lost, but their wide loss is due to the disenfranchisement of 2.5 million voters, the anti-incumbency factor, and the people saying law and order and the economy are higher priority to them than federalism.
The Maoist split hurt them big time. I am surprised the UML split has not been hurtful.
The Madhesi parties have been punished for their numerous splits as predicted. But they still stand a strong chance of going back to power. The NC and the UML don't seem to have the numbers. Sadly the Madhesi parties might not unite even after this clear defeat.
The Maoists and the Madhesi parties will likely do better on the indirect election side.
One hopes for a new constitution by the end of 2014. Nepal needs local elections and state elections right after that.
Prachanda should be elected president. That way it would be okay to keep the Maoists out of power. What are we looking at? Sushil Koirala for PM? KP Oli for DPM? Will Gagan Thapa end up in the cabinet?

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