Upendra Yadav: Fourth Pole?

Turning The Federal Alliance Into An Electoral Alliance
Ram Baran Yadav Is Not An Executive President
Federalist Alliance, Democratic Alliance, Left Alliance
Why Federalism Bothers Ram Sharan Mahat (2)
Why Federalism Bothers Ram Sharan Mahat
Limited Options

Bid to form federalists' alliance intensifies

Although the ruling coalition leaders said some other parties, including Upendra Yadav-led Madhesi Janaadhikar Forum-Nepal would join their alliance, Yadav hinted otherwise. “First they should clearly define who are federalist forces and who are not. They should also come up with their model of federalism,” Yadav said. He said the government cannot hide its weaknesses and misrule in the name of federalist alliance. “Corrupt and smugglers should not be given immunity in the name of federal alliance. Government should not prolong its tenure in the name of an alliance,” he said.

Upendra Yadav is not going to join the Congress-UML alliance. And he does not seem eager to join the Maoist-Madhesi alliance. Is it because the thought of accepting Bijay Kumar Gacchedar's leadership is proving too much for him? Or does he not have the skills to enter the Madhesi alliance and take over its leadership? Or does he think he is better off creating a fourth pole in Nepali politics? Or perhaps it is plain inflexibility on his part? Or there will be room for opposition Madhesi parties in the Terai provinces down the line perhaps? Word is organizationally he is still strong. But how strong? The 2008 saw the MJF at its peak. I don't think it is possible he is even half as strong by now. It is entirely possible he is not playing his cards right. He does not know how to challenge Gachhedar's leadership.

Govt's days are numbered: Yadav

Coming down heavily on the UCPN-Maoist, Nepali Congress and CPN-UML, Yadav charged that most inclusive Constituent Assembly was dissolved without promulgating a new constitution due to their irresponsible behaviour. .... The Madhesi Janaadhikar Forum Nepal leader went on to say that so-called big three parties lost peoples’ trust due to their irresponsibility. He accused them of deliberately murdering the Constituent Assembly to deprive rights to the indigenous, Janajatis and Madhesi people. ..... On federal system, Yadav said the country must be federated in such a way that guarantees the rights of Madhesi, indigenous and marginalised communities. “The country has to be carved out to ensure the marginalised communities’ rights by ending the unitary state system,” he added. ..... Yadav said the new federal set-up should protect social, cultural and ethnic identity of every community and group in the country

Bhattarai govt like previous ones is discriminatory: Yadav

Never before the formation of the Baburam Bhattarai led government, had Madhesi leaders occupied such prominent positions in the Cabinet, but for Upendra Yadav, Chairman of Madhesi Janaadhikar Forum-Nepal, this government is no different from the discriminatory ones in the past. ...... He said the Bhattarai government was ‘a most autocratic regime’ which promoted ‘undivided Far-West campaigners, but brutally suppressed Madhesi protesters in Morang, Saptari, Parsa and other Tarai districts in the run-up-to May 27. He was addressing the group of Madhesi journalists who have been staging hunger strike since Tuesday to press for inclusion of Madhesis in newsrooms and Madhesi issues in news content, at Madhes Media House . ..... “Only those firmly committed to the Madhesi cause can protect the rights of Madhesis, not more Madhesi faces in the Cabinet,” Yadav said. ..... “Major media outlets hardly cover Madhes issues and whenever they do, they sensationalise, distort or fabricate the issues,” Yadav said adding that Madhesi journalists’ struggle for inclusion was part of the greater revolution of Madhesi emancipation for which his party would always fight. .... Unified CPN-Maoist leader Binod Pahadi, a member of the dissolved Constituent Assembly regretted that despite a series of movements and ethnic protests, the media sector was still under the grip of a certain communities

Madhesi parties in bid to form single entity

Scorned by Madhesi voters and well-wishers for failing to prevent splits and fragmentation, Madhesi parties are now seriously trying to form a powerful Madhesi party with the aim of preventing the major parties, particularly the Nepali Congress and the CPN-UML, from taking advantage of the fragmentation of the Madhesi forces....... Although Madhesi Janaadhikar Forum-Nepal Chairman Upendra Yadav, has rejected the idea of joining the initiative again, the proponents, however, believe such a process would yield positive results soon. “I cannot tell when we will form one powerful party, but we have done some groundwork on this. Even if other Madhesi parties do not come forward, we are in favour of merging MJF-D and TMDP. Once we do that other parties will be compelled to join us,” said Jitendra Dev, spokesperson for MJF-D. ....... Although party leaders declined to divulge details of the merger modalities, sources privy to the latest developments of the unity talks said there was a possibility that Thakur could be made paramount leader of the unified party whose approval would be necessary for all party decisions and Gachhadar could be made Executive Chairman of the party. The proposed model could also have two to three post of Joint Chairman to accommodate some chiefs of other Madhesi parties. ..... “Our political slogans are the same and there is no reason why we cannot be united,” said Jitendra Dev, spokesperson for the MJF-D. Sources said second rank of the leaders of other Madhesi parties are in favour of merging their outfits but chiefs of some parties are averse to the idea because they believe they would not get the exposure they are getting now. Chairman of a Madhesi party, who is a minister, said forming one powerful party was not possible. ..... MJF-N Chair Upendra Yadav said the Madhesi parties that were in the government had no organisation in Madhes and were talking of unity to secure their future in the next elections. “Madhesis view Madhesi ministers with contempt for their mistakes, lust for power and disregard for Madhes issues,” said Yadav

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Turning The Federal Alliance Into An Electoral Alliance

What could be the formula?

I don't see the Congress and the UML suddenly seeing light. What will happen instead is they will continue to talk nonsense, their Madhesis and Janajatis will break away from them to form the Janajati party. The two will see major infighting among the leftover factions. And both will be reduced to Praja Parishad sizes after the next election.

The point being turning the Federalist Alliance into an electoral alliance is a task whose time will come soon enough. So might as well prepare.

The Maoist party gets to keep all constituencies it won in the last election minus those whose winners are now in the breakaway party. This includes much of the hills as well as the western Terai.

Whether or not the Madhesi parties succeed in unifying is a big if. That would change things fundamentally. That unified Madhesi party would get every seat won by any Madhesi party in the last election. And if they can't unify they get to keep the seats they won minus the seats of people who broke away.

So each party keeps the constituency that it won minus the people who broke away. Even where people broke away, the party gets to keep about half the seats.

For the leftover seats the Janajati Party is given priority in the hills. And so in all those other constituencies in the hills it is a three way race between the Congress, the UML and the Janajati Party.

In all those constituencies in the eastern and the central Terai that neither the Madhesi parties nor the Maoists won the last time the constituencies are divided 2:1 with two going to the Madhesi parties and one to the Maoists such that it is a three way race between the Congress, the UML and someone from the Federalist Alliance.

How many votes a party won in the last election has to be taken into account while allocating tickets. Because there are some small parties that won no direct seats but sizable votes.

Even if the Congress and the UML end up doing a similar thing and end up not contesting against each other anywhere that helps the Federalist Alliance. It is like when Yahoo and Microsoft team up on Search, Google's share of the search market expands even more.

With this you end up with the Federalist Alliance securing at least a two thirds majority in the next constituent assembly. That is what is needed to not put up Congress-UML nonsense. Baburam Bhattarai should continue as Prime Minister.

And the Federalist Alliance should rally behind Prachanda when it is time to elect an executive President, which could happen within a year of the assembly elections. A non Maoist should be made Vice President, a Madhesi or a Dalit or a Mahila or a Janajati. I'd love to see a Dalit there.

The Act Of A Potential President

The alliance must continue all the way to state and local elections so as to smoothen the institutionalization of federalism in the country. The Janajati and Maoist parties get to do well in the hills and in western Terai. The Madhesi parties get to do well in eastern and central Terai.

Of course the whole task becomes so much the easier should all Madhesi party merge and become one party.

How To Build A Unified Madhesi Party

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Ram Baran Yadav Is Not An Executive President

Ram Baran Yadav is like the president of India and the queen of England. The president of India does not call an all party meeting to seek consensus. The queen of England does not call parties for a meeting. It is for the Prime Minister and the president of the major parties to call political meetings.

The constituent assembly is no more because it finished its four year term. The Supreme Court had made it clear the assembly can not last more than four years. Baburam Bhattarai did not dissolve the assembly.

The only legitimate way to give the country a constitution is through a constituent assembly and the only way to get a new constituent assembly is through elections to a new one.

So the best thing Ram Baran Yadav can do to help the process is by cooperating with the Prime Minister to make all legal and constitutional adjustments necessary to hold elections to a new assembly. That is the only way.

The constituent assembly can not be revived any more than King Birendra can be brought back to life by those who might wish to revive monarchy in the country.

The idea of changing Prime Ministers is the most idiotic of all ideas being floated right now. If an all party government is to be formed that necessarily has to be led by the party that was the largest in the last assembly.

You don't change Prime Ministers. You keep this Prime Minister and you induct some members of the Congress and the UML into the current cabinet.

April 2013 would be a good time to hold elections to a new constituent assembly. After that assembly has given the country a new constitution it can then be turned into a parliament through a political decision. And then the country can go on to hold direct elections for an executive president who must earn at least 50% of the votes cast or face a second round between the two top candidates. Then hold state and local elections.

April 2005: Phone Marathon: Called Up Delhi

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Federalist Alliance, Democratic Alliance, Left Alliance

Three poles have emerged in Nepali politics. The Maoists and the Madhesis are in power. The Congress and the UML also have amassed many small parties while they themselves diminish in size. And there is the group of left parties led by the break away Maoist party.

The Federalist Alliance stands a strong chance of sweeping the next polls to garner a two thirds majority to be able to give the country a federal progressive constitution. I believe the alliance has 21 member parties. That is a healthy number.

 

Source: TheNepaliVideos

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Why Federalism Bothers Ram Sharan Mahat (2)

Making Federalism Work: Ram Sharan Mahat: Republica (Part 1, Part 2)
Why Federalism Bothers Ram Sharan Mahat

If you were to believe in what Ram Sharan Mahat is saying then states like Tamilnadu, Maharashtra and Gujrat were all bad ideas.

In the earlier restructuring model proposed by the Maoists, the population of the single Janajati did not match the combined population of a Brahman-Chhetri-Thakuri-Dasnami in any of the proposed autonomous regions in the hills. Therefore, the commission went a step further by making artificial divisions of the country to raise demographic profiles of ethnic groups in the proposed provinces, defying other considerations including administrative convenience, socio-economic complementarities, historical continuity and development potential. Identity as defined by the CA is related not just to ethnicity, language and culture, but also to geography and historical continuity as well. 

Limbus will account for only 27.4 percent of the population in Limbuwan. The population of Rais, Tamangs, Newars, Gurungs and Magars in Kirat, Tamsaling, Tamuwan, Newa, and Magarat provinces hover around 33 to 35 percent in their respective provinces. The presence of hill Bramin-Chhhetri-Thakuri-Dasnami will be almost equal or even higher in these provinces. ....... about half of Newars and Rais live outside Newa and Kirat Pradeshes; 66 percent of the Magars and 63 percent of Tharus live in areas other than the provinces named after them ....... the geographically scattered and migratory character of Nepali population, making the task of identifying a federal province with one particular ethnic group difficult. Even when we go to basic VDC level, not more than fifty percent of the units will have majority population of one ethnicity. ...... Newars, Magars, and Rais who reside largely outside the provinces named after them can live with communal identity in other regions also. The Dalit community, which represents the most discriminated community and is scattered through the nation, will also get recognition and empowerment in their respective localities.   

Ethnicity argument has been dominant in Nepal’s federalization debate, with practically no consideration for financial sustainability, interdependence and developmental potential. Federalism is economically an expensive proposition. Each province will have to maintain a separate civil service, police system, legislature, cabinet and all other trappings of a modern federal state. .... Numerous single ethnicity-based provinces without consideration of revenue capacity can be a financial nightmare. .... Multiplication will create mostly unviable deficit provinces. .... in the proposed model, a couple of surplus provinces will have to perform an impossible task of subsidizing a large number of deficit units. It will soon generate resentment in better-off provinces. .... While ethnicity and language consideration represents an important factor in provincial demarcation, it cannot be the sole consideration in a country which has more than 100 ethnic groups and a similar number of spoken languages. 

The federal form of government is a more efficient form of government and hence is less expensive. Only states will have police forces for the most part. Several federal ministries will have to be shut down. Those will bring major savings. The monarchy being eliminated alone could pay for the entire thing at all levels. The army will have to be substantially downsized. Let's face it. Nepal is not going to war with any country.

Interestingly, the protagonists of single ethnicity province want to confine this concept to hilly region, and accept only one or two provinces concept in the Madhes region........    it will have ramifications in regional power balance, as more provinces will naturally have larger representation and voices in decision making bodies. ....... The principle of single ethnicity province will not remain confined to the hilly region. This has already led to demand for at least five separate language-based provinces in the Tarai including Tharuwan, Abadh, Bhojpuri, Mithila and Birat regions. The demand may not stop even there, if the experience of other countries is any guide. Nigeria had initially three ethnic provinces; it has 36 at present. 

Whether there are one or two states in the Terai, it does not really matter. The Terai will have representation in the lower and the upper houses in direct proportion to its population, which is half. If the president is directly elected - my hope - everyone in the Terai will have one vote each just like people in the Hills. For Mahat to say if there are eight or nine states in the hills and only two in the Terai then the hills will have four times as much power is downright dishonest.

At the other end to Nigeria is the Soviet Union. An attempt at a unitary state led to it breaking up into 15 countries. Why look at Nigeria? Why not look at India where federalism works beautifully? Minus federalism India would have broken into pieces a long time ago.

The proposal for Tamuwan-Magarat, Newa-Tamsaling, Kirat-Limbuwan, Mithila-Bhojpura and Avadh-Tharuhat was proposed to ensure sustainability.......     rather than fighting over the nomenclature of the provinces at this stage, it would be far better to leave the issue to be decided by the popularly elected representatives at the provincial level. This is the recommendation of the minority view in the State Restructuring Commission. 

Minority view?  This is what is most offensive to me. Mahat and people like him do not believe in the democratic process. They want their views to have deciding power no matter if they are in the majority or the minority. That is the Bahun sense of entitlement that is driving the Janajatis to launch their own political party.

The nation took a decision on a federal state with amendment in the constitution, following the Madhes movement. Except for the Sadvabana party, federalization was not in the agenda of other political parties. The Maoist Party stood for autonomous regions with right to self rule, which is not the same thing as federal units. The nation cannot go back on its commitment on federalism. All major political parties have accepted it. 

Here Mahat is admitting that he and people like him have not really been for federalism. Not even the Maoists were for federalism. The Madhesi Movement forced their hands. And people like Mahat have been paying lip service to the concept of federalism ever since. But they find ever creative ways to put roadblocks on the way to that federalism. It is like Assad saying he is for free speech as long as people are respectful. Mahat is for federalism like Assad is for free speech.

What Ram Sharan Mahat is saying is this: It is not true we are against federalism even though we are the reason the constituent assembly saw its demise. It is not that we are against federalism, we just are opposed to the wrong kind of federalism. And only we know what that right kind of federalism is. The Madhesis and Janajatis inside the NC and the UML themselves don't know what's good for them. This is not about due process, or you already had a two thirds majority for your map in the last assembly. This is about you finally coming around to my way of thinking. Because I know best. I am a Bahun. Bahuns know best.

Besides, federalism is expensive, he says. Why are you even going for it in the first place? What's wrong with 75 districts, 14 zones and five development regions? 

Ram Sharan Mahat comes across as vastly patronizing. For me this is first and foremost about due process.

Personally I said back in April I would be okay with six plus one states - one non geographic state for the Dalits. (6 States: Possible)

Federalism is not a more expensive form of government. The opposite is true. (Does Federalism Lead To A Bigger Government?)

Ram Sharan Mahat is as big a federalist as Gyanendra Shah is a republican. That is the conclusion I draw. Ram Sharan Mahat represents anti federalist forces.

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