There were two victors in the April 10, 2008 elections: the Maoists, and the MJF. And the MJF is the only political party in the country with a track record of having successfully countered the Maoists.
There is no compromising the rule of law. The Maoists do not get to enage in muscle power. They do not get to engage in a rein of terror.
In The News
Video shows Dahal admitting real strength of PLA not more than 8,000; sharing plans to control army and capture state NepalNews the video which the channel claimed was from January 2, 2008 when the Maoists were an important constituent of the Girija Prasad Koirala led interim government ....... "We were (PLA's strength) somewhere between 7,000 and 8,000. If we had reported the correct figure of the PLA, then it would then have been reduced to around 4,000."......... "But our party's leadership decided to report PLA strength as 35,000, and thanks to it the PLA's strength is now 20,000 at least," he said smilingly, evoking peels of laughter around him.........."So our strength has actually increased. You and I know the truth, but why should we tell it to others." ...... apart from the PLA, which he said is now already a "regular army", the party has also formed YCL comprising thousands of youths despite various difficulties and "who now add to our strength". ....... The Maoist chairman also revealed that a significant share of the money that will go to "our martyrs" in villages throughout the country and the PLA in cantonments will be used by the party to prepare for revolt and ultimately capture the state. ...... "You all know that if we have enough money in our hands we can prepare a good battle plan. So, the party needs a good amount of money for the revolt," he said...... though the party may appear to have again reached a compromise (with the state and political parties), "but if you look deeply then you will know how seriously the party is preparing for the ultimate revolt". ..... Claiming that PLA combatants are "politically aware", he said even a small number of their entry into NA is enough to establish complete Maoist control over the army. Maoists warn NC, UML cadres to leave Ramechhap, gun fires kill one in Rolpa 22 parties meeting inconclusiveMadhesi Janadhikar Forum, a key component for formation of new government, was absent from the meeting and is unlikely to give its decision until party chairman Upendra Yadav returns from his foreign visit. The party also has laid claimed for the post of prime minister. Form new government by Saturday: President SC issues show cause order to president INHURED International filed the case seeking cancellation of the president’s move Maoists disrupt House proceedings the new government will not be formed until president corrects his action. Police arrest civil society activists UNSG saddened by Nepal’s political development NDF meeting postponed EU expresses concern over recent political developments Maoists to launch agitation from House and street
The Maoist failure to oust Katuwal has not been a failure of the principle of civilian supremacy over the military.
The parliament can impeach the president, but not with one third of the vote, which is what the Maoists have. The parliament can impeach the army chief. The majority government had the option to get the parliament to pass a resolution by majority vote saying the civilian government wanted to oust the army chief. There was no effort made in that direction.
A majority government with unanimous voice could have got rid of Katuwal. But the Maoists did not have the support of any of the coalition partners. At that point the right thing to do for Prachanda was to withdraw his intent to oust Katuwal.
But even if the majority government had unanimously decided to oust Katuwal, the president, as the constitutional chief and the titular head of the army, would have had the option to send the decision back to the cabinet for reconsideration, then the cabinet would have had the option to resend it, and at that point the president would have had to pass it on to the army chief. But Prachanda not only did not seek support from his coalition partners, he did not feel the need to forward his decision letter to the president to be forwarded to the army chief. He bypassed the president. Calling him up on the phone to inform does not count.
Decision To Resign, A Good One
Prachanda decided to resign instead of possibly facing a vote of no confidence. That was a good one. His party has filed a case against the president in the Supreme Court. That shows a desire to appreciate the rule of law. But the right political move would have been to try and impeach the president. They must know they don't have the numbers. So they did not even try. And if you have already registered a case against the president with the Supreme Court, whey then plan on street protests? Let the law take its course.
Prachanda's Party Failed Prachanda
His party let him down. They put undue pressure on him. He could not resist the pressure from his party to go relentlessly after the army chief. That cost them power.
Katuwal Not The Impediment To Army Integration
Prachanda and the Maoists have falsely assumed that the army chief stands in the way of army integration. The two armies will be integrated after the six biggest parties in the parliament will agree on a formula for integration. And the other parties will not agree on the idea as long as the YCL keeps misbehaving. The YCL has the option to either disband, or become a purely political organization. They can't walk around like Hitler's Brown Shirts. Civilizing the YCL is the homework the Maoists need to do as a party if they want to make progress on the issue of army integration.
Parliamentary Supremacy
On thorny issues like land reform and army integration the best idea would be to let there be full fledged debates and discussions on the topics in the parliament. Party chiefs are too used to usurping the power of the parliament. Open parliamentary debates have to take the place of smoke filled room politics.
India?
India is not the reason all of his coalition partners deserted Prachanda. They deserted him because they kept telling him he does not have their support to oust the army chief, but he did not listen to them, so they deserted him.
It is now time to form a new government that would include all parties except the Maoists. Jhala Nath Khanal would be the right person to lead that government.
This is not a Katuwal issue. This is an issue of the Maoists having lost the confidence of the parliament. The Maoist government no longer has majority support. The MJF has to join forces with the UML, and the Sadbhavana. The NC has to support the new government by joining it. The TMLP has to join the new government.
Rule of law is supreme. How to integrate the two armies? Go to rule of law. How to sack or not sack the army chief? Go to rule of law.
The people who died during the decade long civil war - 13,000 to active combat, twice that many to suicide resulting from that combat and social dislocation, over a thousand disappeared - are not martyrs. They are victims of political violence.
There is a difference.
The Maoists are not the authors of the magical April Revolution. The April Revolution was an ultimate example of a nonviolent revolution. The Maoists had been pushing to make even that revolution into a violent bloodbath.
The Maoists were never right to have engaged in violence. Violence was always wrong. There are no ifs and buts about that. Why only the country as a whole, even the Maoists only started making political progress after they took a break from violence. Their unilateral ceasefire of the fall of 2005 was when they started turning around as a political force. And they have made steady progress since.
I feel the pain of the Maoists who died during the civil war, I feel the pain of the citizens who died, I feel the pain of the Nepal Army soldiers who died during that period. But all that pain has to be processed by establishing a Truth And Reconciliation Commission. That commission might even recommend monetary compensation for many of the victims of that civil war period, but any such proposal has to be discussed and passed by the parliament, not quietly and stealthily by a cabinet.
The idea that the 7,000 Maoists who died during the civil war are martyrs is a mistake, and it is to mete out disrespect to the legitimate martyrs of the four mass movements.
The Maoists as a party are free to enact a shrine in the name of those 7,000, but they don't get to lump those 7,000 with those tens who died during the four mass movements, and especially the April Revolution.
We ended the civil war. We ended military rule, absolute monarchy. We had elections. We have a duly elected parliament. Everything feels like is on track. But we have to watch out. Things could still go very wrong. The peace train could get derailed.
It is possible the Maoists think they might be able to get an absolute majority after the next elections. And that hope possibly makes them more at ease with the multi-party idea. But the recent student elections were a setback for them. And it is possible they are deeply uncomfortable at the prospect of losing power after the next elections, or even before that.
The UML Smells Power
It is possible the UML wants to displace the Maoists. They could muster the numbers. This is why I am for a directly elected president. Otherwise you will have parties wanting a new government every few months, every year or two.
NC
I have a feeling the NC will face an even bigger defeat in the next elections than it did last year. The Congress people have made mistake after mistake. They got routed at the polls, but they never accepted defeat. They did not get into power but they acted like the army honchos were with them and not the parties in power. Their score on internal democracy, already bad before, is even worse now. They have absolutely no vision on federalism, or restructuring the army, or on land reform except wanting to instinctively try and fall back to the status quo.
The Army
I don't think the Nepal Army is anywhere close to thinking in terms of a coup, but the top honchos in the army have been acting obstructionist all along. An absolute monarch could not pull a coup. Katuwal stands absolutely no chance, and he knows it. They could not take over, but they could mess up, slow things down, and they have been doing it. It is as if the monarchy has ended everywhere else except in the Nepal Army. Vestiges of the old order, old ways of thinking remain.
The elections did not bring a cure. The Pahadi police force is intentionally detached from the scene. They are unhappy the Madhesi parties won so big. The Maoists have been holding the drama of holding peace talks with small outfits and not the big ones. The elected Madhesi leaders are in the safety of Kathmandu, a little too detached from the ground.
Madhesi Parties
If they can unite, or at least seek common ground on a few basic issues, they could grow some more, but how much more? Unless they acquire national character they will be regional players of the future Terai state, which is not necessarily a bad thing.
I don't feel the possibility. But we can not fully count it out. What we have to remember is if there is a return to civil war, the second round will be much worse than the first round was. And the first round was bad enough. And that is why all parties concerned have to stay away from that possibility.
Dictatorship: Not An Option
I am sure there are Maoists who daydream of capturing state power the traditional Maoist way. But then there are also NC people who feel somehow we can go back to the 1990s.
Step 1: Bring The Army Under The Parliament, Completely
Trying to deal with the army through cabinet decisions has been a mistake. Instead it should be upto the parliament to hold full blown discussions as to the shape and size of the future Nepal Army.
The starting point has to be that we don't want an army that is 110,000 strong which is what you would get if you stitched the two armies together. So the Maoists can not possibly be serious with their talk of army integration. Also any Maoist who ends up in the army has to meet the physical and other criteria that might apply. You don't end up in the national army by virtue of being a Maoist.
The talk should not be of army integration, the talk has to be of downsizing the army. Maybe we will end up with a national army that is about 3,000 from the Maoist army, about 20,000 from the traditional army, and about 7,000 from elsewhere so as to ensure ethnic and gender diversity. The other 17,000 Maoist soldiers get to be retrained to be turned into health care workers. We need health, we need education. We need health care workers, and teachers, we don't really need a huge army.
Retire The Brigadier Generals
I am for retiring them. Unless you retire them, how are you going to promote new officers? The Rana-Shaha-Thapa brigade sitting atop the Nepal Army is utterly lacking in diversity. They are not the future face of Nepal. But that retirement has to be brought about by due legal process. And if the Supreme Court were to decide against the retirement decision - I hope not - then we will have to wait another day to retire them. Maybe next year. How about next year?
Land Reform
I am also for land reform. But whatever reform proposal is implemented, it has to be passed by the parliament after plentiful debate and discussion.
Step 2: Force All Parties To Make Their Book Keeping Transparent, Public
This is a must. I would like to know how much money the Maoists have.
Who Will Win The Next Elections
I could take a guess, but it is hard to tell. But one thing is pretty sure. We are destined to have a hung parliament for at least a few rounds. No party is big enough to claim a majority of its own. Even if the Maoists were to emerge the largest party after the next election, I expect them to have a smaller comparative size than what they have now. So the winner party will be the one that goes out of the way to work with other parties. And now is when you start doing that. If the Maoists exhibit bad behavior, they can expect isolation. Maybe they don't want isolation. So behave.
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