Democracy For Nepal

Saturday, May 09, 2009

A Minority Government Is Possible

Prime Minister Upendra Yadav?

The Maoists are on one side, the NC-UML is on the other side, and there is no sign the two forces will meet, whereas the MJF stands in the happy middle. And the country needs a new government fast. And we are scheduled to have elections for a new parliament in a year or so. So whichever government takes shape will but last a year.

How about this? The Maoists invite Upendra Yadav to be Prime Minister, Yadav takes the three Madhesi parties into power with him to form a three party government. The Maoists do not participate, but support the government from outside, kind of like Chandrashekhar and the Congress in India back in the days.

In return Prime Minister Upendra Yadav sacks Katuwal. A unanimous cabinet decision to that effect gets taken and sent to the president. The president will have the option to return the decision back to the cabinet for reconsideration. The cabinet will send it back to the president. At that point the president will have no option but to send the decision over to the army, and Katuwal would be sacked.

That minority government will have the option to take its decision to sack Katuwal to the parliament where the proposal would pass with Maoist support. That might be the best way to sack Katuwal, through a parliamentary majority.

I do feel there is a need to prove there is civilian supremacy over the military.

In The News

MJF divided over new govt Himalayan Times
Prachanda criticises parties
Maoists seize 25 bighas in Bara
MJF meet inconclusive
NC backs MK Nepal as next PM
MJF throws its weight behind UML
FM Bhattarai falls ill
Abnormal normality Nepali Times The country seems to run better without a government
Maoists tricked UNMIN
Second chance However much Dahal's party may try to explain away the tape the fact is that he has admitted deceiving the UN and everyone else on guerilla numbers and about his commitment to the democratic process. ....A consensus national government would be the only one that can address those daunting challenges.
Yadav vs Dahal the Nepal Army has two chiefs, the president is behaving like a chief executive ...... The arithmetic of the CA is such that even if a government were to be formed without the Maoists, it would last only as long as Pushpa Kamal Dahal wishes.
No one won The Maoists saw the entire process, and the polls, as a tactical victory on way to total state control. ..... the generals feel they have won a huge victory and will be even less amenable to civilian control. ....... UML and MJF think this is their chance to lead the government. And NC is already thrilled at the windfall from ministries it will get to control. ...... The UML is hoping to get rewarded for foiling Maoist plans on army. The NC is happy to see the left take on the ultra-left. Other key players feel that the Maoists have got a bloody nose and should be kept out in the opposition ...... the Maoists are back in the game to form the government. The resources and patronage dispensation opportunities are just too tempting. They have told Upendra Yadav, finally back from his holiday, that they may possibly back him as PM while retaining control from outside. ........ Lack of progress on integration will split the Maoist leadership and weaken them. ...... PKD should use this moment of enormous popularity within the party to drive home the need for consensus. The other parties would do themselves a great favour by not letting fear and insecurity dictate all their actions.
UML claims stake over new consensual govt leadership Kantipur
No new govt in Nepal yet
“Resignation missile against foreign brokers, surrenderers”
President will be forced to resign: Minister Sharma
‘One Madhes’ key to MJF for new govt run Madhesi Janaadhikar Forum (MJF) on Saturday decided to lend support to that party which supports its 'One Madhesh, One Province' demand....... the MJF stressed on the national consensus government including the Unified CPN (Maoist). .... The party has also urged the Maoists not to obstruct the Legislature-Parliament.
Maoist politburo decides not to let govt form till Prez move rectified
MJF discussing the best ally option
Anti-prez protests continue
PLA integration only after we have upper hand: Dahal
(Updated with video excerpts) Republica
'Suspicious people' held for leaking footage of Maoist Chairman
UCPN (Maoist) vow to block government formation
MPRF sets ´autonomous Madhes´ as precondition for its support
UML seeks support for govt formation
Dahal vents ire on parties, terms them foreign agents
UNMIN concerned over Shaktikhor tapes

K.P. Oli

Video: KP Oli 1
Video: KP Oli 2
Video: KP Oli 3

UML-led govt has no alternative, claims Oli NepalNews the past nine months reflected the failure of the Maoist to lead government........ Oli had served as the home minister in Nepal's first communist government of his party some 15 years ago ...... Oli, a staunch critic of Maoists, said his party is ready to go ahead for majority government if the Maoists do not show willingness for consensus government and warned to take strong measures if the Maoists continued to obstruct the parliament sessions. ...... He also blamed the Maoists for the instability in the country, claiming the government failed to respect the rule of law.

You can't let the Maoists decide if a majority government is possible or not. Of course it is possible. Because the constitution says so. Maybe it is time to call the Maoists' bluff. Oli perhaps has the right temperament. He is staunchly anti-Maoist. Jhala Nath Khanal might be too much of a Maoist appeaser to be any good for these times. Madhav Nepal also is not sufficiently anti-Maoist. Oli also has the advantage of having run both the Home and Foreign ministries. He has a major presence in his party's central committee.

The country perhaps needs someone who will teach the Maoists that use of force by the YCL is not an option.

But right now we don't even have a majority coalition in place. Got to get that first.

The idea of the Maoists leading yet another coalition government is ridiculous. They already tried and failed. They still don't see how Prachanda's bypassing all of his coalition partners on the Katuwal issue was not a legitimate step.

Now is the time perhaps for a UML-NC-MJF-TMDP-SP government.

In The News

Deadline to form new govt is over; consensus eludes parties NepalNews The NC, projecting Madhav Kumar Nepal as new prime minister and handing over responsibility to UML for garnering support from other parties, has failed to give any substantial decision thereafter. ..... Jhala Nath Khanal-led establishment of the party is not willing to name senior leader Nepal as the new PM .... The fourth largest party, Madhesi Janadhikar Forum, is giving confusing signals on government formation. Terai based parties are likely to based their stand in line with MJF that has said whichever party supports the Madhesi agendas would get its backing. ...... the government cannot be formed without the House functioning
Old parties are trying to buy CA members: PM Dahal Saying that his party, Unified CPN (Maoist), was ready for big sacrifice in order to restore civilian supremacy in the country, Dahal said the parties that identify themselves as democrats have thrown their weight behind the army chief who challenged civilian supremacy. He described his resignation as a salvo against the foreign intervention and political betrayers and warned of strong protest movement against "brokers and betrayers"....... the ongoing attempts of other parties to form new government exclusive of Maoists are the outcome of defeated mentality
MJF still undecided over new govt He said their priority is for an all-party government ..... a three-member committee under the leadership of Jaya Prakash Prasad Gupta to discuss with parties on the formation of the government and forge alliance with other Madhesi parties ..... When asked if his party is going stake claim for prime minister, Yadav said they don't claim but will not reject if circumstances 'compelled' them to accept it. He also said whichever party supports the demands of Terai based parties would get MJF's backing. ..... The party has criticised both Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal and President Dr Ram Baran Yadav for their moves saying both are responsible for creating current political uncertainties. ..... PM's move was a challenge to politics of consensus while the President's order to army chief to stay put was unconstitutional. ..... coalitions that existed earlier have lost their meaning and that there is need to work out for new coalitions and called for all-party committee to sort out the political deadlock
UML-led govt has no alternative, claims Oli
Export of Nepali manpower 'growing'

Deadlock in Nepal, Madhesi parties hold key to new government

How can Nepal´s President CORRECT his Unconstitutional Veto?

Friday, May 08, 2009

The President Should Declare An Emergency

Phone Marathon II (2005)
Phone Marathon: Called Up Delhi (2005)

If the parliament will not bring forth a new government - either a majority government or an all party government - by the deadline - tomorrow - there will be but one option left: presidential rule. The president will have to go ahead and declare an emergency.

The emergency rule would last six months.
No political leader would be arrested.
Freedom of speech will stay intact.
Right to peaceful assembly will stay intact.
After six months the parliament will have the option again to bring forth either a majority government or an all party government.

Three Big Advantages

The president gets to run the country. He need not assemble his cabinet from inside the parliament. He can assemble a team of technocrats.
The political parties and the parliament get to work on a new constitution, which is what they were elected to do in the first place.
The country gets a taste of an executive presidency which is what we should shoot for in a new constitution. We don't need a new government every year. We want a directly elected president who stays in power for four years.

In The News

UML CC meet begins; leadership divided over formation of new govt NepalNews
NA refutes media reports
Sushil wants re-verification of Maoist combatants
'Woman should lead new govt'
New govt unlikely within given time
Envoys call on PM, Koirala
PM's address to the nation (May 04 09)

MJF not to claim for PM
Maoist politburo for more protests to revert President's move
Prez consults CA chairman on procedure of appointing new PM

Nepal's Maoist double-cross

Thursday, May 07, 2009

Prachanda Messed Up

The right way to sack Katuwal would have been this.

Get all parties in power to agree to the idea. But if they don't agree to it, then don't go for it.
But if all parties in power would have agreed to it, Prachanda still needed to send that decision to the president.
The president then would have had the option to send the decision back to the cabinet for reconsideration.
The cabinet - with all party agreement - could then have sent it back to the president all over again saying they still stand by it.
At that point the president would have had no option but to forward the letter to the army chief who would then have been duly sacked.

Prachanda's Two Big Mistakes

He did not seek the consensus of his coalition partners.
He did not go through the president. He bypassed the president.

Who Apologizes?

President Yadav has nothing to apologize for. His job is to protect the constitution, and he did that.
Prachanda already apologized by resigning. So there is no need for him to apologize again.

What next?

Form a new government.
That can be an all party government, or it can be a simple majority government.
Having a simple majority government does not mean we will then automatically lack the two thirds majority needed for work on the new constitution.
Writing a new constitution is separate from running a government.

Who Will Lead?

Technically speaking Prachanda can lead again. Technically speaking Baburam can lead. But politically speaking it makes no sense for the Maoists to lead. They already tried and failed.
A new leader from a new party needs to come forth. I see a consensus building around the Madhav Nepal name.
The Maoists will have the option to join that government or support it from outside.
The UML, the NC, the MJF, the TMDP, and the SP must be part of the new government.
The UML should lead. The Maoists have the option to join or not.

First Priority: Law And Order

The new government is going to have to domesticate the YCL. That organization may not engage in use of force. Period.
The Maoists have a right to peacefully protest, but they are barely one third of the parliament, they don't get to prevent the formation of a new government.

Katuwal

I hear he is scheduled to be out within months. That might be the best way to let him go.
The Maoists might have tried proving in court instead that he is way past retirement age.

In The News

PM Dahal meets Koirala NepalNews Koirala asked Dahal to cooperate in forming a government of national consensus. Dahal on his part said he would consider the proposal. ...... Dahal also tried to allay fears of NC leadership regarding the controversial videotape containing his speech during a close-door training to PLA commanders one and half years ago. ...... He had headed straight to Koirala residence after attending his party's politburo meeting held at Bhaktapur. ...... NC leaders Sher Bahadur Deuba and Krishna Prasad Sitaula were also present at the meeting.
Prez consults CA chairman on procedure of appointing new PM there is no other way of appointing a PM except taking the issue to the parliament ...... Maoists CA members have disrupted the proceedings of the House for two consecutive days
Maoist politburo for more protests to revert President's move Both the parties need support from Madhesi parties to garner majority for the new government. Madhesi parties have sought consensus on their agendas in return for their support. ..... On Wednesday, caretaker Prime Minister Dahal claimed the new government would also be under his party's leadership.
'UML leadership for unity govt has already been agreed upon' said it's certain that the next government would be led by UML and what is being awaited now is a formal decision of the UML with the nomination of its leader, who will become the Prime Minister. ...... the Maoists should be part of the new coalition, but they cannot take the leadership. ...... Madhesi parties, whose participation or support is a must for the new ruling coalition to take shape, are yet to make their positions clear
Minister Yadav issues 'death threat' against journo
Maoists threaten cadres of other parties in Siraha
Crisis with a Silver Line They have publicly and unequivocally avowed that their ultimate goal remains to convert Nepal into a people’s republic. The ruling coalition partners and opposition parties were deeply worried about it. Excesses of the Young Communist League, a Maoist outfit, have always been a cause of serious concern for other parties and the public. YCL members engage in preventing and disrupting activities of other political parties and in killing and maiming their opponents. ........ the neutrality of the civil service, police and intelligence was being dented by stuffing Maoist loyalists and supporters in senior posts ........ Maoists were trying to undermine the judiciary’s independence by cowing the courts to give verdicts of their liking. The military brass was under enormous pressure to integrate into army ranks the 19,000 Maoist combatants living in the 7 UN-monitored cantonments. ......... Children cannot go to school; the sick cannot go to hospitals; and employees cannot go to their jobs. People are forced to live in dark, because there is power outage of more than 12 hours every day. There is no petrol at the gas station, no running water at the tap, no cooking gas in the store. ......... Investors are looking elsewhere to invest. ..... The dismissal of the army chief was the last straw that broke the patience of UML ....... UML walked out of the government in protest and pulled the crisis’s trigger. ....... But they cannot govern, and the Maoists will make sure of it by churning the streets and by disrupting the house ........ you cannot possibly leave the largest party in the house – they have 238 seats out of 601 -- out of government altogether if you are serious about writing the constitution, whose approval requires a two-thirds majority. .......... if the Maoists have been a problem player in the government, they could prove a nightmare out of it. ........ a government that commands at least a two-thirds majority in the constituent assembly. A government of simple majority should be the last option.

Wednesday, May 06, 2009

Madhav Nepal Would Be A Great Choice

Madhav Nepal Needs To Make A Move (2007)
Prachanda, Madhav, Devendra (2006)
Madhav Nepal (2006)
Madhav Nepal Out In Open (2006)
Interim President: Madhav Nepal (2006)
Phone Talk With Madhav Nepal, Hridayesh Tripathy (2005)
Maoist, Moriarty, Madhav, Manmohan: Get Behind The 3 Point Program (2005)
Madhav Nepal, Commander Of The Movement (2005)
Email From Madhav Kumar Nepal (2005)

Image via Wikipedia

Madhav Nepal Would Be A Great Choice

In The News

Dahal dubs videotape scandal a ploy against peace process; claims Maoist military strength to be much higher NepalNews
'UML set to pick Nepal as coalition leader' CPN (UML) is set to choose Madhav Kumar Nepal as the leader of the next coalition that will form the government ...... "Madhav Kumar Nepal has the ability to bring together different parties. UML is going to pick him unanimously [as the leader of the next coalition]," said Bidhya Devi Bhandari, UML vice-chairperson. She added that two UML leaders - chairman Jhala Nath Khanal and K.P Sharma Oli - are eligible for the post of Prime Minister. ......... a government of national consensus would be formed under the UML's leadership. ....... Unified CPN (Maoist), is showing undemocratic behavior by obstructing the parliament.
Madheshi parties call for consensus govt A joint meeting of Madheshi Janadhikar Forum, Terai-Madhesh Loktantrik Party and Sadbhawana Party organised at Singha Durbar, Wednesday decided to stand by a government of national consensus that could address the needs of the people of Madhesh. ..... The parties will support a party which shows commitment towards fulfilling the agreement of February 28, 2008 with the Madheshi community, MJF vice chairman JP Gupta said. ...... The meeting was organised soon after MJF chairman Upendra Yadav returned form his foreign tour.
Envoys meet PM Dahal, Khanal PM Dahal expressed his commitment to peace process and national consensus, mentioning that he resigned from his post to protect civil supremacy.
PM Dahal holds fence-mending meeting with Khanal In his first political meeting after resignation as Prime Minister, Maoist chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal met CPN (UML) chairman Jhala Nath Khanal at the latter's residence in Chhauni Wednesday morning. ..... Khanal said formation of "national consensus government" and constitution-making process were discussed ..... "I found him somewhat agitated and at the same time he expressed his disappointment." ...... Dahal told reporters after the meeting that they agreed to continue the politics of cooperation and consensus not to let the peace process derail. ..... Khanal informed journalists quoting PM Dahal that obstruction in the House would continue until the President admits his mistake and revokes the decision against government action against the army chief. Khanal said that he informed the PM about threats issued by the Maoists in various districts including Ramechhap and Kailali.
Govt formation within deadline unlikely The humiliation of having to resign from the government still afresh in their minds, Maoist leaders and cadres have started taking vengeance against their NC and UML counterparts. ...... Maoists rank and file has been pressurising the party leadership to rather stay in opposition than erode their public image by not being able to implement their policies when in the government. ..... the party will not easily accept to lead the government again even if offered, let alone joining the government under other parties. ....... The NC has agreed to form new government under the leadership of UML. However, these two parties do not have enough seats in the parliament to get a majority. They will be able to form the government only if Madheshi Janadhikar Forum and a few fringe parties support them. ....... Having understood their importance well, the MJF chairman has already put forward conditions to the UML-NC alliance. ....... MJF has covertly expressed interest to lead the future coalition. “It’s a different matter if we get (the post of) Prime Minister, otherwise we don’t need to jeopardize our vote bank by the digressing from our ideological stance,” a close confidant of MJF chairman Yadav quoted the latter as saying. .......... MJF leaders have accused Congress and UML of not having a strong vision about solutions to problems faced by people in Madhesh. The ‘ideological stance’, MJF chairman is indicating is none other than its alliance with the Maoists which the MJF thinks has a better strategy to win the hearts of people in the Terai than NC and UML. ..... The NC and UML’s unofficial proposal to make Madhav Kumar Nepal, the new Prime Minister of Nepal is not likely to materialise simply because of inadequate support on their side. Given the circumstances, MJF chairman Upendra Yadav looks like the most probable candidate to lead the government. The strongest reason behind this is the latent support of the powerful players, Yadav has behind him. ...... speculation is that Indian establishment, which has undeclared but strong influences in the formation and dissolution of governments in Nepal, is also likely to support Yadav as the future Prime Minister
House session obstructed, postponed for Sunday
India stresses on consensus to end ongoing crisis in Nepal, denies hand in toppling Maoist-led govt

Yadav stresses for consensus among political parties Chairman of the Madhesi Janaadhikar Forum Upendra Yadav has called for consensus and cooperation among all political parties while forming the new government to give a way out of the current turmoil. Talking to media persons upon his arrival at the Tribhuvan International Airport, Yadav said his party is not in a position to claim the leadership of new government. Yadav said his party will make efforts to build consensus among the parties, adding that his party will support whoever can gather majority to form government. MJF has called its parliamentary party meeting after Yadav’s arrival. The party is also scheduled to hold talks with other Terai based parties – Terai Madhes Loktantrik Party and Sadbhawana Party to bring out a common voice on Terai issues.
President Yadav's fate to be similar to Gyanendra if he doesn't rectify his move: Bhattarai He also claimed that there is less possibility of the new government being formed anytime soon because the Maoists have already intensified their street protest and struggle in the parliament against the President's move.

Tuesday, May 05, 2009

Is An All Party Government Possible, Desirable?

Worst Case Scenarios

Renewed civil war.
Failed state.
Cambodia.

Bad Case Scenarios

Political paralysis.
Widespread YCL excesses.
Appeasement of the Maoists' dictatorial tendencies.

Two Knotty Issues

Security sector reform.
Land reform.

Solution: Parliamentary Supremacy

Attempt an all party government.
Form an all party steering committee.
Hold full fledged debates/discussions in the parliament on security sector reform and land reform.
Pass a law to force all political parties to make their book keeping public.
Let the parliament shape the idea of a new army for the country. A bill passed in the parliament would decide as to the size and shape of the future army. It might end up 30,000 strong, about 20,000 from the Nepal Army, about 4,000 from the Maoist Army, and 6,000 from elsewhere. There must be criteria - physical and otherwise - that all soldiers must meet, to be professionally determined.
Form an all party Land Reform Commission. All property captured by the Maoists during the 10 years will go under the guardianship of that commission. It would be for a duly elected parliament next year to decide as to what to do with that property. If the Maoists want land reform, they get to shape that land reform bill to be passed by the next parliament.

Who Could Lead An All Party Government?

Prachanda is an option.
So would be someone else.

Who Would Lead The All Party Steering Committee?

Madhav Nepal is an option.
So would be someone else.

Appeasement: Not An Option

They tried that with Hitler. Let him have a small country, he will leave the rest of Europe alone. Appeasement does not work. That appeasement lead to World War II.
Appeasing Prachanda's and the Maoists' dictatorial tendencies is not an option.
There can be no compromise on multi-party democracy.
Security sector reform is an option: heck, it is desirable. Land reform is an option: heck, it is long overdue. Federalism is a must. The Maoists can have all that.
What they can never hope to have is a one party communist republic. There we have to draw the line. The YCL does not get to engage in use of force. (Madman Prachanda, Hindenburg Girija, Youth Communist League: Prachanda's Brown Shirts)

Reality Check

But we can not assume the Maoists want an all party government.
If all the other parties come together and prove a majority in the parliament, they are the legitimate government. That is how it works. The Maoists don't then have the option to threaten the workers of the other parties in the districts. If they do, the state has to counter them.
The non-Maoist parties can not engage in appeasement.
All you need is a majority in the parliament to have a government.
The Maoists have to show they can sit in the opposition also. They have work to do to show they are up for multi-party democracy and rule of law.

Options For A New Coalition Government

It is important to form a government of all parties minus the Maoists. They need to be taught a lesson.

If the Maoists then resort to use of physical force in the streets, that physical force has to be countered by the state. It might end up being a clash between the YCL and the Armed Police Force. Hopefully the PLA and the NA stay out of it.

If necessary, Prachanda should be arrested in that scenario. (Comrade Gonzalo Of Peru: A Profile) It can not be legal for you to lead an organization that uses force. You have a right to organize, you have a right to engage in peaceful assembly. But you have no right to incite unlawful uses of force.

Democratic Options (2005)
The Hardliner Democrat Approach
The Bombing Of A Bus

If the option is between renewed civil war and Maoist anarchy, civil war is a better option. And the Maoists will have to take responsibility if there is new bloodshed.

Mistakes

The Nepal Army recruiting 3,000 new soldiers was a mistake. That step was a peace time Dhoramba. That was the feudals wanting to disturb the peace, and the Maoists played into their hands. The Supreme Court saying it was okay for the army to recruit new soldiers shows some foul play might have been involved. Were some justices bribed by the old establishment? But the Maoists don't get to mix the old establishment with the duly elected political parties, many of whose leaders are of middle class backgrounds.

Land Reform

The Maoists and the UML should be able to come up with a just land reform agenda for the country. And if the Maoists don't feel the need to at least take the UML into confidence, it is not land reform they have in mind but dictatorship. That can not be allowed.

Militarists, Maoists, Monotones, Dorambaites, Naxalites (2005)
Militarists Attempting A Doramba Repeat To End Ceasefire (2005)

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Saturday, May 09, 2009

Friday, May 08, 2009

Thursday, May 07, 2009

Wednesday, May 06, 2009

Tuesday, May 05, 2009