Four Poles: One PM, Three DPMs

Baburam Bhattarai is an obvious name. He is the sitting Prime Minister. Even Dahal proposing the Mahantha Thakur name does not change the fact that this is one pole, the leading pole.

Sushil Koirala is the candidate for the NC, the UML and the monarchist parties. This is the second pole, though not the second biggest.

The Fourth Pole
Upendra Yadav: Fourth Pole?

Ram Bahadur Thapa Badal's name has been proposed. This is the third pole. This is composed of the far left parties.

Upendra Yadav's name has also been proposed. This is the fourth pole. My guess is this is the second largest pole in the country right now. But it will be for the elections to prove. I think this alliance will produce more than one Chief Minister down the line.

A compromise position would be for Baburam Bhattarai to be Prime Minister, and for Upendra Yadav, Sushil Koirala and Ram Bahadur Thapa to be Deputy Prime Ministers. The UML could get Home, Sharad Singh Bhandari could get defense, and Baidya could lead Finance.

No time for squabble
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The Polarization Is A Good Thing

Consensus is a strange political concept. Frankly it is a Panchayati concept. Consensus was what the king wanted to happen.

2006 saw a polarization between the pro king and the anti king forces. That polarization was a good thing. Today the polarization is between the federalist forces and the anti federalist forces. This polarization is also a good thing.

Once a democratically legitimate government acquires the status of a caretaker government, that government stays in place until another elected government shows up to take its place. That is the democratic way.

The quickest way for the NC and the UML to get rid of Baburam Bhattarai is to speed up the elections and to do well in those elections.

But I think the NC and the UML know they are not going to do well at the polls. So to them political paralysis itself is achievement. Elections will mean federalism. But political paralysis means federalism is denied. And in paralysis they see victory.

It is not for a constitutional head like Ram Baran Yadav to make and break governments. It is for the political process to make that decision.

The reason the NC and the UML want Baburam to resign is because such a resignation would create something worse than the current political paralysis. It would create a political vacuum. And they want that. If political paralysis is bad for the cause of federalism, a political vacuum would be even a worse blow to that federalism. And they want that.

Baburam Bhattarai has been flexible. He has been open to inducting NC and UML people into the government. He has been open to giving the Home Ministry to the NC. Heck, he is still even open to resigning - something he is not required to do according to the constitution, but he could make such a political move if he wants, it is a free will thing - but his precondition is a valid one. First all the parties have to agree as to who will replace him, and then he will resign.

But that agreement is not happening.

And that begs the question. If Ram Baran Yadav is merely the Queen of England, and the executive power in the country rests with the Prime Minister, why did Ram Baran Yadav ever hold talks with political parties on so called consensus? The Queen of England does not hold political meetings. The president of India does not hold political meetings.

My conclusion is Ram Baran Yadav is solely responsible for the current political paralysis. It was and is his responsibility to pass the election related ordinances so that the Baburam Bhattarai government can hold elections in April 2013.

That really is the only legal, constitutional solution. That is how you break the gridlock.

Ram Baran Yadav was 100% a political person before he became president. If he had not become president he would have been a strong supporter of the anti federalist forces in the country today. This is a guy who badmouthed the Madhesi Kranti every step of the way. Yes, the biggest beneficiary of the Madhesi Kranti was one of its strongest opponents when it happened.

I think his current bad behavior as president is him acting like an anti federalist. A constitutional head is supposed to be politically neutral. He is not being neutral. In pushing the concept of consensus what he is doing is he is giving veto power to the NC and the UML, the two leading anti federalist factions in the country today.

This is wrong.

The anti-federalists hold a valid, democratic viewpoint. They are entitled to their worldview. But the legitimate step for them to take is to go to the people and seek their support to their worldview. Holding the country hostage is not how you do it. That can only make space for non democratic elements in the country if taken too far, the very forces that the Maoists, the Madhesis and the NC and the UML were united against in 2006.

Either Ram Baran Yadav should stop taking sides, or he is the one who needs to step aside.

Neither the NC nor the UML will cross the 10% mark among votes cast in the next elections. Together they will not get more than 20% of the seats. And that is why they want to drag their feet. They don't want elections to happen.

Mahantha Thakur For PM
A Non Political PM?
What Might The President Do?
The PM Resigning Would Be Weird
NC And UML At Fault
Ram Baran Yadav: Kasturi Mriga
The President, The Prime Minister
NC And UML Do Not Have Veto Power
Dahal's Capitulation Is Wrong
Baburam Bhattarai Will Conduct Elections
Ram Baran Yadav Is Not An Executive President
Why Federalism Bothers Ram Sharan Mahat (2)
Why Federalism Bothers Ram Sharan Mahat

PM candidate nowhere in sight

UCPN (Maoist) Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal floated three names—Deputy Prime Ministers Narayan Kaji Shrestha and Bijay Kumar Gachhadar and Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party Chairman Mahanta Thakur—all of whom were flat-out rejected by the opposition parties. .... “Chairman Prachanda is still against becoming prime minister. If top leaders from the NC and the UML want him to take the leadership then I think we can make him [Dahal] ready for the executive post”

Prez asks Dahal what to do if no consensus
UCPN (M) not to accept Cong at unity govt helm

Dahal has said that Deputy PMs Narayan Kaji Shrestha and Bijaya Kumar Gachhadar and Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party Leader Mahantha Thakur are possible PM candidates from the coalition.Dahal is also learnt to have kept open the option of him standing as a PM candidate. However, this is only when agreement among the parties on the candidate looks virtually impossible and if the parties themselves request Dahal to lead a unity government

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New PM only from ruling coalition: UCPN (Maoist)

"NC or UML can get prime minister´s post only after promulgation of the constitution. So, we don´t accept their prime minister now," Horibol Gajurel, UCPN (Maoist) Madhes bureau in-charge, told Republica. He also said NC and UML have no chance to lead national government because UCPN (Maoist) was the largest party in the then CA and also because the FDRA is in majority so an FDRA candidate will be prime minister if not Bhattarai himself or another UCPN (Maoist) leader. ..... "Why will we accept their candidate when they reject ours" ..... Vice-chairman and Deputy Prime Minister Narayankaji Shrestha is Bhattarai´s alternative. ..... "If our party is unable to head the consensus govenrment then either Deputy Prime Minister Bijaya Kumar Gachchhadar or Tarai-Madhes Democratic Party Chairman Mahantha Thakur will be the FDRA candidates for prime minister"

Today's NC CWC meeting to dwell on PM candidate
कांग्रेसलाई प्रष्ट हुन् गच्छदारको आग्रह
अग्रगमन र पश्चगमन बीचको लडाई : प्रधानमन्त्री
ठाकुर र कोइरालाबीच भेटघाट
मिथिलाञ्चलमा मुहर्रमको धुन

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• Bhattarai mends fences with Dahal
• A Non Political PM?
• In Nepal, a missed deadline
• Power-sharing deal eludes Nepal parties
• Baburam not the only candidate for unity govt: Prachanda

The PM Resigning Would Be Weird

English: Leader of CPN U Maoist (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

The current government is already a caretaker government. If it resigns the president will have no option but to request it to continue until another government is formed.

A caretaker government that was an elected government is succeeded by another elected government. There will not be another elected government in the country until elections are held.

The only way for a Nepali Congress person to become PM is after the elections are held and the NC emerges to lead a coalition that garners a majority.

For Baburam Bhattarai to resign and for the Maoists to agree to a NC person leading the government now would be tantamount to surrendering. The issue is not as to who will lead the government now. The issue is if Nepal will get meaningful federalism. For Baburam to resign is for the federalist forces to give up the power to shape the debate.

The NC and the UML leaders had less than one third the power in the constituent assembly and they still managed to scuttle Nepal's move to federalism. For Baburam to now resign is to say that was okay. That was not okay.

The federalist forces have to keep the power and as long as they are willing to bring the NC and the UML into the cabinet - which they are - the president will have to pass the election related ordinances just like he was forced to pass the budget ordinance.

And if the NC and the UML choose to boycott the election the federalist forces will have an even easier time garnering the two thirds majority they need.

PM resigned but retracted
Good Move By Ram Baran
NC And UML At Fault
Ram Baran Yadav: Kasturi Mriga
The President, The Prime Minister
NC And UML Do Not Have Veto Power
Dahal's Capitulation Is Wrong

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NC And UML At Fault

Feuding politicians take Nepal to brink of ruin Apart from a small bust of Chairman Mao beside his armchair, Nepali Prime Minister Baburam Bhattarai flaunts no trappings of his revolutionary past: these days he talks of foreign investment, infrastructure projects and double-digit growth. ...... Liberated from civil war and sandwiched between economic powerhouses China and India, Nepal could be one of Asia's success stories. Instead, as it blunders further into political turmoil, even its own leaders talk darkly of a "failed state"....... due to an impasse over this year's budget, the caretaker government's authority to draw from the Treasury will lapse this Thursday, which means it will be unable to pay the salaries of half a million civil servants, soldiers and police...... "We won't be able to supply even essential drugs to the sick in hospitals, pay old-age pensions and feed inmates in jails beyond that day" ..... the economy will shrink and black markets, money-laundering and smuggling will flourish. ..... "It will be ... an economy in anarchy" ..... "There is no parliament, no budget and no constitution, and yet the country moves on" ....... "I am the only legal prime minister," Bhattarai said. "They are not ready to face the next elections, they fear they will be routed in the elections - that's why they want the leadership of the government," he said of opposition parties. ..... He said that if the opposition continued to block the budget, he would seek a presidential decree to push it through...... Bhattarai succeeded in retiring thousands of Maoist fighters and integrating hundreds into the national army, removing a serious threat to peace. ..... A hard core of Maoists disillusioned with the party's shift away from the radical left and failure to deliver land reforms, have broken away. This rump group is now threatening to go back to war but, even if they don't resort to violence, they could lose the Maoists' votes when elections are eventually held. ...... Finally, demands for ethnic autonomy are growing across the country, particularly in the southern plains.

Baburam resigning is not a solution because that would create a political vacuum worse than the current gridlock. Even if Baburam is not to lead the proposed all party government the decision as to who has to be made now, beforehand, before Baburam can resign without being irresponsible.

The Maoists were more than twice as big as either the NC and the UML in the last elected body in the country. And so have a legitimate claim to lead an all party government. But the NC and the UML don't want to face that reality. Just like they refused to face the reality that once two thirds of the members of the constituent assembly have put down their signature for a federal Nepal, that reality wins.

The NC and the UML don't believe in decisions by majority. They do not believe in decisions by two thirds majority. When they speak of consensus what they mean is no matter what only their wish can be carried out. They want a rule of the 20%, or quite possibly even a 10%. Their collective political weight might approach 10% after the next elections. And even in that circumstance they want to be calling all the shots.

I have a name for that attitude. It is called Bahunbad. Bahuns are 10% of the country's population, and they are used to having 100% of the power.

An era is about to come to an end, folks. Make peace with it, or get swept aside by the tides of history.

The way out of the gridlock is for President Ram Baran Yadav to realize as to his role, and to sign the ordinances passed on by the only legitimate government in the country, the one led by Baburam. Yadav needs to stop acting like there is some sort of a co-government led by the NC and the UML. There isn't.

The ball is not in the court of Baburam, or that of the NC and the UML. The ball is in Ram Baran's court. He needs to play straight by the rules. He is not a new king who replaced the old king. He is a non executive president and needs to act like one. It is Baburam who is the executive head of Nepal right now.

Ram Baran Yadav: Kasturi Mriga
The President, The Prime Minister
NC And UML Do Not Have Veto Power
Dahal's Capitulation Is Wrong

The funny thing about the NC and the UML wanting Baburam out is not only will Baburam lead the government that will hold elections in the country, he is also the guy who will lead the government after the next elections. Only at that time it will be a government with a two thirds majority.

The pressure is on Ram Baran Yadav, not on the NC and the UML. The NC and the UML are only doing what any stupid little political party would do. The NC and UML are crybaby parties.

Cliff Notes
My Reason To Drive Off The Roof
Bad Advice From Paul Krugman

Oppn parties vow to stop budget
FDRA all out for consensus on budget

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• Nepali Congress demands Bhattarai's resignation
• Nepali parties inch back to poll option
• End the deadlock in Nepal
• The President, The Prime Minister
• Nepal accuses govt of obstructing way to consensus