Showing posts with label Nitish Kumar. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Nitish Kumar. Show all posts

Thursday, June 11, 2015

मधेस अलग देश: अब एक मात्र गोल, एक मात्र लक्ष्य

मधेस अलग देश को समय आएको हो?



The Splitting Of Czechoslovakia
मधेसी क्रांति को कार्यतालिका
मधेस सरकारको अंतरिम संविधान
अहिंसात्मक क्रांति नै हुन लागेको हो
हिंसा र राज्य (State)
संघीयता या अलग देश
नेपालभित्र समानता को संभावना देखिएन, मधेस अलग देश बन्छ अब
क्रांतिको समय आइसक्यो
सीके राउत र नेपालको न्यायपालिका
Nationalities And Citizenship
सीके राउत र अंतरिम संविधान
कुरुक्षेत्रमा जाने बेला आयो
Madhesh And Nuclear Power And Solar Power

The Tamils Of Sri Lanka And Me
Janakpur Patna Kolkata Industrial Corridor
मोदी के चाय दोकान पे चर्चा
बिहार के लिए फोर्मुला



World Government And Federal States
Does The World Government Have To Await A Total Spread Of Democracy?
Sushil Modi In Janakpurdham

मधेस स्वराज की क्रान्ति शहीद पैदा करने वाली क्रांति नहीं है। घर घर से लाठी ले के लोग निकलेंगे। क्रांति अहिंसात्मक होगी। लेकिन ईंट का जवाब पत्थर। काठमाण्डु के खस लोगों को सुझाव: भुखे मरने की रास्ते पर चल्ने की जुर्रत मत करना। हिंसा पर उतरे तो तुम्हारा भविष्य नाकाबंदी का है

मधेसी क्रांति पर हिंसा का प्रयोग करने वाले किसी भी पर्वते सेना प्रहरी प्रशासक के लिए मधेस देश में कोइ स्थान नहीं रहेगा। तटस्थ रहने वालों के लिए स्थान रहेगा। किसी एक समुदाय का देश नहीं बन रहा ये। 

Tuesday, May 05, 2015

In The News (3)



India tapering off military aircraft sorties to Nepal
the massive 'Operation Maitri', with the deployment of 12 helicopters, NDRF teams, Army medical and engineering taskforces, will continue in full swing ...... Three flights each to Kathmandu and Pokhara from India, with food, medicines, blankets, tents, water and power equipment, were undertaken on Wednesday. "The first one of a C-130J Super Hercules, for instance, landed at the small airstrip at Pokhara with six tonnes of food and water. On Wednesday evening, a C-17 Globemaster-III and an IL-76 were awaiting clearance to fly to Nepal. ...... With relief pouring into Nepal from all over the world, the small Tribhuvan International Airport in Kathmandu has become heavily congested over the last three days. After some Indian flights were forced to return from Kathmandu without landing, the IAF had even dispatched its director (transport) to Kathmandu and worked out a plan to send flights in "low density periods" ...... the "land route has become the primary route" now. ......

With 48 to-and-fro sorties of its C-130J, C-17, IL-76 and AN-32 aircraft, the IAF has airlifted 315 tonnes of relief material and equipment to Nepal since Saturday. "They have also inducted 951 people into Nepal for relief work, which included doctors and paramedics for three Army field hospitals, one IAF rapid aeromedical team and a naval medical team. On their way back, they have carried 3,193 people"

.....The helicopters of IAF (8 Mi-17s) and Army (4 Dhruv advanced light helicopters), meanwhile, continue with their sorties within Nepal, operating mainly from Kathmandu and Pokhara. "Apart from airlifting relief supplies, the four Dhruvs have rescued over 110 people from Pokhara, while almost 1,000 have been ferried by the Mi-17s"
Inside the Inflatable Hospital That’s Saving Lives in Nepal
Nepal quake survivors face threat from human traffickers supplying sex trade
“There is nothing like an emergency when there is chaos for opportunities to … traffic more women. There is a great chance that everything that is bad happening in Nepal could scale up” ..... “People here are now desperate and will take any chance. There are spotters in the villages who convince family members and local brokers who do the deal. We know who they are.” ..... Sita, who was rescued last year, was taken by an uncle “for a job” in India. Her parents, who are subsistence farmers and illiterate, believed assurances she would have a good job and be able to send back her wages.... In the brothel in Siliguri, Sita was forced to have unprotected sex with up to 20 or 30 men a day, seven days a week for a year. ..... most of these criminal networks were based in India, which made identification of traffickers difficult. The gangs have representatives and agents looking for suitable women across Nepal, but particularly in deprived rural areas such as Sindhupalchowk. ..... Many local agents do not know the eventual destination of the women, with some genuinely believing they will find well-paid work in Kathmandu or India. Others are well aware of the real nature of their “jobs”. One ruse is to promise marriage to wealthy foreigners. ..... Kathmandu also has hundreds of bars and massage parlours where women work in poor conditions, with many compelled to have sex with clients. These women are recruited locally, again often in zones hit hard by the quake. “Now [after the earthquake] it is going to be easy for brokers” ....... The uncle who abducted Sita was murdered by a contract killer. Her parents remain unaware of exactly what happened to her, though her brothers have found out. They have now disowned her. ..... Sita lives in a secret shelter run by Shakti Samuha. She does not know what has happened to her parents in the earthquake. For many days, communications to her remote village were cut. When she managed to get a line through to a brother, he refused to acknowledge her. “He said he had no sister and I had called a wrong number,” Sita said.
Nepal earthquake: Expert fears satellite mapping could point to more aftershocks
the stress that caused the initial earthquake may not have been fully released....... "There are a lot of concerns about what is to come in terms of aftershocks, because the ground displacement is much less than we expected. ...... the region would be safer if more seismic events were felt along the boundary of the Eurasian and Indian tectonic plates. ..... "Normally we expect a lot of aftershocks along the plate boundary, but in this case, there are none," he said....... "After Sichuan, there were hundreds...here, there aren't many at all, just a couple of dozen........."[When] we see some aftershocks along the boundary, we say the stress has been released and we'll feel a little more relaxed. ......... "At this stage, I can't see that yet."
Why Is Israel Criticized for Helping Nepal Earthquake Victims?
After Nepal quake, time is ripe to push for safer buildings, experts say
more than 200,500 houses have been destroyed and 186,285 damaged. The government thinks the number of wrecked homes could rise to half a million ....... A key factor is explaining to people that building earthquake-resistant houses is not expensive .... For rural buildings, usually made with stone and mud, simple ways of tying the walls together with wood or concrete elements can make them around 80 percent safer and adds only 5 percent to the building cost ..... The extra cost of strengthening old buildings - known as retrofitting - may be too much for individuals, especially in a poor country like Nepal, but is still cost-effective for public buildings ..... Risk reduction experts say the best time to push for more investment of this kind is often in the wake of a major disaster, when the danger is still fresh in people's minds. ..... "The reason we have ... exposure to hazards is that there is something wrong with ... the way we are building our cities" ...... Disasters like the Nepal quake - which damaged rickety, close-packed buildings in the capital and elsewhere - expose these problems and offer a chance to build back better ..... "Don't wait several months, start immediately to think in this tragedy, how can we use what is now happening to improve some other things?" ...... She advised assembling a team of Nepali experts as soon as possible, with outside support if needed, to plan reconstruction and better urban design, before people begin rebuilding themselves in ways that would leave them at risk in the future. ...... Architecture Sans Frontieres (ASF) International, a network of professional groups including Engineers Without Borders Nepal, is setting up a network of built environment experts to assess the damage and help plan the rebuilding process. ...... ASF International chair Peter Newton warned against rushing to construct interim "pop-up" homes, which are not durable and are expensive compared with longer-term aid....A better approach is to assess existing buildings so that safe ones can be re-occupied quickly, providing temporary shelter for those made homeless ..... The challenge is how to provide relevant solutions for poorer social groups that have lost their livelihoods in the disaster, rather than just designing quake-resistant homes for them and raising money to get them built ...... "The aim is to have a bigger impact on people that are more vulnerable, which is a much trickier problem"
Nepal, aid agencies trade blame as confusion mars earthquake relief
A row has broken out between Nepal and some international agencies over the handling of aid that poured into the country after last month's devastating earthquake, with each side blaming the other for confusion and delays in getting help to victims. ...... The 7.9-magnitude quake, which struck 10 days ago, has killed more than 7,500 people and left hundreds of thousands homeless. ...... Relief material initially piled up at the airport as Nepalese customs officials checked each crate that came in so commercial goods did not slip through. ........ Senior government officials said customs checks were necessary, because they did not know what was coming into the country....... Supplies included goods that Nepal did not need and many relief workers arrived without proper documents to enter the country, complicating efforts to move the aid effort along, officials said. ....... Some rescue workers, for their part, said they were frustrated by what they saw as bureaucratic delays and lack of coordination by the government. ...... Frustrated by delays and a lack of coordination, some donors are circumventing the government and sending aid directly through non-governmental organisations for distribution, adding to disagreements ........ Meetings about earthquake preparedness have been a regular feature in Kathmandu in recent years, and global donors have invested millions of dollars to help Nepal be better prepared for a major seismic event. ...... Chaos after a disaster of this magnitude is inevitable, experts said, and given that aid groups had estimated a major quake near Kathmandu could kill 100,000 people, they said things could have been worse. ...... the government had made an error by urgently requesting tents for Nepalis who had lost their homes....."When donors sent them, they were huge and heavy. What we really want are tarpaulins"
'Why Wasn't Nitish Kumar Allowed to Visit Nepal?' His Party Asks in Parliament
Mr Kumar wanted to visit Janakpur near Bihar's border with Nepal, which is around a half-an-hour chopper ride from Patna..... Nitish Kumar has not reacted officially, but sources say he had commented to his party colleagues that he would have been more surprised, had he been allowed to make the trip. .... "He wanted to go to Janakpur to express solidarity with people there, most of them are from Bihar. But there seems to be politics in asking Nitish Kumar not to go to Nepal," Mr Tyagi said amid speculation that the PM Modi-Nitish Kumar rivalry had played a role.
BJP slams Nitish Kumar for proposing to visit Nepal

Wednesday, September 24, 2014

Madhesi Enpowerment In The Larger Nepali Context

हिन्दी: देश के उप राष्ट्रपति मोहम्मद हामिद अंस...
हिन्दी: देश के उप राष्ट्रपति मोहम्मद हामिद अंसारी पटना में पूर्व मुख्यमंत्री सत्येन्द्र नारायण सिन्हा(छोटे साहब) की 94वीं जयंती पर आयोजित व्याख्यानमाला श्रंखला पर पूर्व सांसद किशोरी सिन्हा और मुख्यमंत्री नीतीश कुमार के साथ (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
There are 30 million people in Nepal. I am saying 20% are Bahun Chhetri, 20% are Dalit, 30% Janajati, and 30% Madhesi. There are 100,000 bureaucrats, 100,000 soldiers, and 100,000 police officers. Because history has been unfair, most of them are Bahun Chhetri. Assume 90% of them are Bahun Chhetri, or 270,000. Rectifying that mistake would definitely help. But the bigger opportunities are in the private sector.

In my model there are six million Bahun Chhetri, that many Dalits, nine million Janajatis, and nine million Madhesis. If you manage to restructure the state fundamentally, hypothetically speaking, you end up with 60,000 Bahun Chhetri on state payroll, 60,000 Dalits, 90,000 Janajatis, and 90,000 Madhesis.

But that still leaves out 5,940,000 Bahun Chhetri, 5,940,000 Dalits, 8,910,000 Janajatis, 8,910,000 Madhesis. Not everyone can get on state payroll. If you right size the government (that means downsizing) to something like 10,000 soldiers, 50,000 police officers, and 50,000 bureaucrats, the opportunities to put members of this or that community on state payroll are even less.

So where will the rest go? In countries like Nepal and India there tends to be a huge informal sector. There is a small public sector, a larger private sector, and a huge informal sector.

The purpose of putting people on state payroll is not to provide livelihoods to members of this or that community. The purpose is to run a small, lean, agile, effective government. But the understanding has to be that most of the people will get taken care of in the private sector. And so it is the purpose of Nepal Sarkar to foster the private sector.

The whole political debate in Nepal misses this point. If you follow the debate it feels like these 300,000 people on state payroll are the be all and end all. There are 29 million and 700,000 other people that we are not yet talking about.

It is important to move fast, be done with this federalism thing, and move on to issues of rapid economic growth. The debate has to move on to talking about Nitishism, my name for what Nitish Kumar has done in Bihar. Nepal has to get down to the business of providing strong basic law and order, build roads and bridges to connect all parts of the country, build schools and health care centers, train teachers and health care workers.

People acting dishonest on federalism are doing a great disservice to the country and its peoples. Obviously they don't love the country. Or they would not be acting dishonest. तपाईंले बुझेको नेपाल के हो?

Monday, August 25, 2014

Nitish, Bihar, And Development

English: Flag of Janata Dal (United) of India
English: Flag of Janata Dal (United) of India (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Map of Bihar showing location of Bhimbandh Wil...
Map of Bihar showing location of Bhimbandh Wildlife Sanctuary (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Lalu Prasad Yadav, at a political meeting in K...
Lalu Prasad Yadav, at a political meeting in Kesariya, Bihar, India. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Bihar has seen the emergence of a new alliance with Nitish, Lalu and the Congress coming together. The other of course is the BJP alliance with the likes of Ram Vilas Paswan that swept the recently held national elections.

Right now the two alliances are running neck and neck. That means it will be a close fight next year in Bihar, but it is advantage BJP. Right now Sushil Modi is running ahead. In Bihar it might be 50-50. But in Uttar Pradesh it will be a total sweep by the BJP also at the state level.

Bihar is one place that could give Modi something akin to an opposition. And Modi in Gujrat was known as a man who brooks no opposition. His China model is not only economic, it is also political. He does not like the idea of having much of an opposition. And so he is going to do all he can to put Bihar into Sushil Modi's lap. Sushil Modi is not a bad candidate. He was deputy to Nitish in Bihar's spectacular success story. So he can legitimately take some credit.

If Narendra Modi could sweep Bihar as merely a prime ministerial candidate, imagine what he could do as a performing PM. And I expect him to perform.

Nitish has a tall task before him that has been made tougher by Lalu's mandal-kamandal talk. You can not beat Narendra Modi with that. The way to beat Narendra Modi is with development talk. Laloo was spectacular as Railway Minister, Nitish was the top performing Chief Minister in the country. It is not like they don't have it. But they are not talking development. That is problematic. Right now Nitish is all set to lose the elections next year.

Maybe the real story here is that his break up with the BJP was a bad move. Nitish was the first person to call Narendra Modi a future PM. That was back in 2003, I think. Looks like somewhere along the way he switched his position but has refused to play the role.

He could talk all development all the time and give Narendra Modi a run for the money. But he is not doing it. Puzzles me.

For now Narendra Modi is the man to watch. His political goal seems to be to form BJP governments in enough states that he also ends up with a majority in India’s upper house. His organization people have major plans for the North East and the South. Having a tight grip on the Hindi heartland of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh would go a long way.

All indications are Modi is on his way to giving India growth rates greater than seven per cent. He wants to double the size of the Indian economy by 2020.

Forget Bihar, Modi also has major plans for Nepal. His visit to the country was well appreciated. It felt like he truly wanted a fresh start in a relationship that has always been great but greatly unproductive. If load shedding ends in Nepal within a year or two, you will have Modi to thank for it. He means business.

I still stay curious about Nitish, though. He might have to stop crying hoarse, ke majdoori nahin mili, I did not get my wages. Like Bill Clinton would say, all elections are about the future. The people of Bihar chose to put Modi in Delhi. I am not sure that was a bad choice, economically speaking.

But now Nitish has to make a strong development case for the next five years for Bihar, or make way for Sushil Modi. It is not going to be an easy fight. The two Modis might have to show all tricks up their sleeves to rope in Nitish, once and for all.

The junior Modi is sure determined. Laloo is his usual comic self. Nitish looks a little tired, a little betrayed. He has not taken the latest political debacle too well.

Double digit growth rates are my benchmark, for Modi in Delhi, for the next Chief Minister of Bihar, and for all current and future Prime Ministers of Nepal. Delhi is a tall task, because coordinating all those states across India is no easy task. Patna? Nitish did it year after year. Nepal? Now that is the sad part.

Being in transition does not help. Not having a constitution does not help. There is also the no small matter of not having an obvious leader.

Sunday, January 19, 2014

Samanupatik Nautanki

English: Nitish Kumar
English: Nitish Kumar (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
(written for Vishwa Sandesh)

I have been astounded by the process through which the political parties in Nepal have allotted the seats that fell in their laps through the proportional representation formula.

My impression is the way it is supposed to work is a political party submits a list of candidates, and if it wins 10 seats for proportional representation, the first 10 names on the list get selected automatically. There is no room to play around with the list after the votes have been counted.

In Nepal’s case, since there is a major emphasis on inclusion, there should have been provisions like every third name on the list should be that of a female, every tenth name should be that of a dalit, every sixth name should be Madhesi, every fifth name should be that of a Janajati. For the regional parties like the Madhesi parties are, there would be emphasis also on the Muslims.

Instead the party presidents ended up having near total sway leading to major intra-party dissatisfactions.

There has been much talk of an inclusive democracy over the past few years. I believe 49% of all new entrants into the civil service will be coming through some sort of an inclusive formula. That is a decent arrangement whose pace might be quickened through a dramatic downsizing of the bureaucracy.

When you eliminate certain federal ministries and reduce the size of others, that creates room for the bureaucratic apparatus that needs to be set up at the state level. If the drama that has played out over the past few weeks ends up doing a repeat when the state level ministries are set up, it will not be fruitful. Meritocracy has to be the buzzword. Let the best candidates fill up the slots. That is what would be in the best interests of the people.

Federalism should not mean the regional political lords stuff up the to be built regional bureaucracies with their political cronies. That would be a disaster in the making.

A bright future for Nepal entails that the political parties play a smaller role in national life, and the party presidents have a smaller power base inside their political parties. The onus has to be on empowering the individual, the emphasis has to be on the private sector and the associated wealth creation and job creation.

The way the political party bosses were allowed to allocate their party’s PR seats is a bad sign. This is a sign the party bosses might again be more interested in forming and pulling down governments than in constitution writing.

I wonder how the proportional representation thing will play out in the constitution that will get written. First of all one hopes Nepal sure does not end up with 600 MPs. That is more than what India and America have. For a small country that Nepal is 200 MPs would be more than enough. Add to that another 100 for the upper house and maybe that is what the politicos have in mind. Perhaps those 100 would be by the PR formula. But the lists will have to be finalized before the votes are cast, otherwise you end up with a sham PR system.

A political party builds and submits its list, to the Election Commission and to the public. The list has to meet the inclusion requirements for the DaMaJaMa. If a party might win 20 PR seats, the first 20 names on the list get selected automatically.

Party bosses allocating PR seats after the fact is not too different from when the king used to appoint the anchaladhish, the zonal commissioners.

Proportional representation is a good thought. It is a great way to make every vote count. And the inclusion formula is a great one. Nepal has seen too much social disparity over the centuries.

That same way of thinking has to percolate all the way to the local levels. Nitish in Bihar has done a good job of including women at the panchayat level. He has engaged in some good social engineering. I think Nepal should learn.

Despite the uninspiring drama of the past few weeks, I hope the elected leaders in Nepal deliver a new constitution before 2014 is out.

The political process is by definition a messy process. No party boss in Nepal is a Nitish Kumar, and that is the sad reality. But peace and constitution is not too much to ask for at this point.

A system is only as good as the people who run it. But there is also something called a political culture shift. And Nitish south of the border is proof one person can make a huge difference. For the longest time Bihar stayed the epitome of hopelessness. But it is now on its feet and running.

Once Nepal has a constitution and regular federal, state and local elections perhaps the process will throw up some worthy leaders who will work to give the country double digit growth rates. One hopes.
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Thursday, August 22, 2013

November Polls: Who Will Win?

English: Top leaders of Nepali Congress –spoke...
English: Top leaders of Nepali Congress –spokesperson Arjun Narsingh KC, vice presidents Prakash Man Singh and Ram Chandra Paudel and acting president Sushil Koirala—during the Central Working Committee meeting held at its central office in Sanepa, Lalitpur on Wednesday, September 15, 2010. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Jhalanath Khanal said during his New York trip that his party seemed to be leading in 100 of the 240 constituencies in Nepal. Sushil Koirala has claimed his party will win a two thirds majority on its own. Prachanda thinks his party will win an outright majority. The numbers don't add up. All three of them can not be right. Especially when all three have undergone vertical splits. And so all three are poised to do less well than they did in 2008.

The Terai is likely to end up with two provinces, a Madhesh in the East and a Tharuhat in the west with Chitwan in between going to one of the hill states. But the Nepali Congress is not for that. And it is no longer the in power by default party. So I see it doing less well this year than it did in 2008.

Makes me think the Madhesi parties might do better than is being predicted. Although a very, very hung parliament is a foregone conclusion.

Rajendra Mahto to me looks like is in a pretty good position. The leading Madhesi parties all are in a good position.

संघीय समाजवादीसँग उच्चस्तरीय समितिको वार्ता
गोलमेच बोलाउने सैद्धान्तिक सहमति
Smartphones cause rise in myopia: Surgeon
The UML’s response to our demands has been half-hearted
UCPN (Maoist) ‘gains ground’ in Madhes
Giri says no to medical check-up
Madhes parties for 10 provinces, parliament system of gov
Madhesi parties gear up poll preparations

Poll date not set in stone

Khobhari Raya joins TMDP-N
China and India 'water grab' dams put ecology of Himalayas in danger
Congress finds Dahal's strategy dubious
Madhesi students burn CDC report
Dishanirdesh with Puspa Kamal Dahal- August 8, 2013
असन्तुष्टलाई ल्याउन हदै लचिलो बनौं : कांग्रेस
एक्लिए राजकिशोर
Race for NRNA president heats up
Design for delimitation
Madhes parties reposing trust in hill community
Identity federalism, inclusion Madhes parties’ agenda
Madheshi parties gearing up for November polls
Badri Mandal to join Mahato-led SP
Raut new MPRF-N deputy chief
Ramanand Mandal joins SP
Madhesi parties not yet prepared for polls: Lal
Insensitive Bihar ministers: Who wants Nitish Kumar as PM?

Police steps up vigilance against JP Gupta for hobnobbing with armed outfits

Don't misread bid to unify Madhesi forces: TMDP
थारूलाई मधेशीबाट टाढा पार्ने काम गच्छदारले गरेका छन् : सञ्जयकुमार साह (नेता – सद्भावना पार्टी)
संजय साह सद्भावनामा प्रवेश

Sadbhavana seeks unification with TMPD
'Polls against nat'l interest' : Oli
MPRF-N leader shot at

SC vacates interim order against voter registration without citizenship cards

Mess in Maoists
Alliance with ex-king possible: Baidya
MPRF-D leader Shah quit party
HLPC positive towards our demands: Jha

Absolute anarchy
चुनावी उदासिनता
वरिष्ठ नेताको प्रस्ताव स्वीकारेको छैन : भट्टराई

संविधानसभासँगै स्थानीय चुनाव गरौं: एमाले
कस्तो छ एमालेको प्रारम्भिक चुनावी समीक्षा ?
Dishanirdesh with C.K Lal- July 18, 2013
एमाले पनि मधेस केन्द्रित अभियानमा
Armed Tarai outfits meet in Patna
Madhes parties won't be bedfellows with NC: Analysts
Bahun, Kshetri communities demand indigenous status
Dahal stands no chance in Madhes: Nidhi
Nepal: Dahal wants to prove Madhesi leaders inept, claims Nidhi
NC poll campaign in Saptari

Country can not develop by belittling historical roles of 'Khas/Kshetris'
Mahato announces not to hold ministerial posts in future
UML will forge alliance with small left parties, democratic forces: Khanal
Gachchhadar expresses reservations over SC order
Mao advised Nepal to strive for economic strength

Obama: Immigration Reform Will Miss August Deadline, Reiterates Need For Citizenship
Bill Gates invites us all to read Jared Diamond's The World Until Yesterday
Kingpin capture shows role of U.S.-trained Mexican marines

Dahal sends letter to Baidya for formal talks
Bhattarai to get ceremonial post of ‘senior Maoist leader’
Big four pledge to prepare draft of constitution within 6 months
'Don' Ganesh Lama sent to judicial custody

तमलोपा नेपाल र दुई सद्भावना एक हुँदै
मधेसका शीर्ष नेतामाथि भौतिक धम्की चेतावनी
Madhesi forces air their dirty linen in public

Solar System Has Trailing Tail, Just Like Comet
Madhesi leaders differ on election issues

Fireside with Upendra Yadav- July 8, 2013
विवाद टुंग्याउन दाहालका यस्ता चार विकल्प
CA polls, alliance with UCPN (M) Baidya’s agenda

Possibility of Madhesi parties' unification slim
Maoists, Madhesi against polls: Gautam
Dropbox aims to replace the hard drive altogether
Is cat poop dangerous?
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Tuesday, August 20, 2013

A 30 Year Gameplan For Nepal

Deng Xiaoping
Deng Xiaoping (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
(written for Vishwa Sandesh)

A 30 Year Gameplan For Nepal
By Paramendra Bhagat (www.paramendra.com)

It is possible for Nepal to become a developed nation in less than 30 years from now. China started running hard around 1980 when the pragmatist Deng Xiaoping took over. A few years from now China will have become a bigger economy than America, adjusted for purchasing power. Nitish has been Chief Minister of Bihar for less than 10 years and Bihar has become unrecognizable. His formula is simple: basic law and order, basic infrastructure, a check on corruption from the top.

Secularism is an achievement. Ending the monarchy is an achievement. Democracy is an achievement. Federalism is an achievement. A constitution written by elected representatives is an achievement. But Nepal has become what Bihar used to be notorious for. The law and order situation is very weak. Both petty crime and organized crime have taken root in the country over the past few years. Once a constitution is in place and there are duly elected representatives at all levels of government the law and order situation should improve, but it will not happen on its own. The political will has to be there.

India is not growing as fast as it was growing only a few years back. China also has slowed down. But this slowdown is temporary. Nepal is lucky to be situated between India and China. All it has to do is get the basics right – basic law and order, basic infrastructure – and it will start moving ahead fast just for being sandwiched between India and China.

Hydro is the top sector. All the political leadership has to do is provide basic law and order and put in place the right policy framework that is super friendly to foreign direct investment (FDI). Once you get those right that will also work wonders for the tourism sector. Looks like all the government of Nepal has to do is provide law and order and then get the hell out of the way. Although there is plenty of potential for agriculture as well as industrialization, a country like Nepal should learn from the mistakes of the west and seek the benefits of organic farming and clean energy fueled smart industrialization. Smart industrialization is one where software is used every step of the way.

The Terai is the bread basket. It also houses the major industrial centers in the country. But the hills and mountains can grow food items that the Terai can not: apples and oranges come to mind, tea and coffee come to mind. With the right infrastructure Udaypur, Chitwan, and Surkhet could all be major industrial hubs. With good roads, electricity and broadband industrialization can be taken to remote hill and mountain locations.

But the biggest long term focus has to be on the service sector. Tourism, finance and software come to mind. And there you have to invest in people if you want to do well as a country. You invest in education, and you invest in health. There I really like what they did in Cuba. If Nepal could learn to emulate law and order from Bihar, and the utter friendliness to FDI from China, and make major strides on basic education and basic health like Cuba under Castro, or like Bihar under Nitish Kumar, double digit growth rates can be taken for granted.

If Prachanda is the next Prime Minister of Nepal (no matter who it is I foresee a coalition government in the country for a long, long time) I would hope he helps brings about the constitution in a hurry, works hard on basic law and order – put an end to the mafia raj – and pulls a double whammy of enacting a FDI-friendly policy framework while investing in human capital on a war footing. Do what they did in Kerala: give the country a 100% literacy rate. Only don’t repeat the business mistakes of Kerala. Or all your educated people will end up in Dubai.

We live in a global world. The first few waves of FDI that China started receiving after it started opening up in 1980 mostly came from the Chinese diaspora. There is a lesson for Nepal there. Offering dual citizenship to Non Resident Nepalis is a no brainer. Do it. Make it happen. That is one of the most FDI friendly moves the country can make. India is doing it, and they are glad they are doing it. Take a look and see it is working wonders.

At the high end you make it possible for companies to create wealth. Those companies pay taxes. With that money you invest in education and health and credit for everybody. You have to take care of that entire loop, and keep expanding the cake. Deng Xiaoping understood that. It is good to aspire to be rich, he said. He did not say, let’s hang the rich.

Manmohan Singh opened up India as Finance Minister around 1991. Only a few years back India was looking at near double digit growth rates. Nitish has done one better in Bihar. He has exceeded China’s growth rates. And Bihar is a poor, land locked, flood prone state. There is light at the end of the tunnel for Nepal.
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