20: Nepal Protests

ठगी आरोपमा जनमत पार्टीका कोषाध्यक्ष पक्राउ
राप्रपा अध्यक्ष लिङ्देनलगायत सिंहदरबारबाट पक्राउ
धवलशमशेरलाई हाजिर जमानीमा छाडियो
राप्रपाका नेताहरूलाई ज्ञानेन्द्रले भने– पुलिसलाई गुलाफको फूल दिनू ! निर्मल निवासमा राजनीतिक छलफल ‘गरिबी र बेरोजगारी बढ्यो, नेपालमा कोही मान्छे छैन । सबै विदेश गएको छ, धर्म संस्कार मासिएको छ । नेपाली नेपालीबिच एकअर्कालाई विश्वास गर्ने वातावरण छैन । यसरी नै मुलुक अघि बढ्छ त राजेन्द्रजी, अध्यक्षजी’, पूर्वराजाले लिङ्देनलाई प्रश्न गरेका थिए । जवाफमा लिङ्देनले सोही कारण आफ्नो पार्टी राजसंसथाको एजेण्डामा अडिग रहेको बताएका थिए ।

रविलाई गैरकानुनी थुनामा राखिएको भन्दै निकिताले दिइन् बन्दी प्रत्यक्षीकरणको रिट, सोमबार पेसी
प्रसाईंको दुई साता : भारतका ३ सहर घुमेर हिन्दुवादीको घरमा ‘सेल्टर’ तर, सो प्रदर्शन हिंसात्मक बनेसँगै पूर्वराजा विवादमा त तानिए नै उनी पनि तीनकुनेबाट बिएबी–४२०८ नम्बरको स्कोर्पियो चढेर एकाएक भारत भागे । प्रसाईंले काठमाडौँबाट भाग्नका लागि प्रयोग गरेको स्कोर्पियो यसअघि नै झापामा भेटिइसकेको छ । स्कोर्पियो चालक ईश्वर विकले प्रसाईंलाई झापाको बिर्तामोड स्थित बिएण्डसी मेडिकल कलेजमा लगेर छाडेको बयान दिएका छन् । ........... तीनकुनेबाट प्रसाईं सुरुमा ललितपुरको इमाडोलस्थित पुष्कर खतिवडाको घरमा पुगेका थिए । त्यहाँ स्याउ, केरा र दुध खाएर उनी हिँडेको खतिवडाले प्रहरीलाई बताएका छन् । इमाडोलबाट चापागाउँ पुगेपछि फर्केर उनी बनेपा हुँदै झापा पुगेका थिए । ....... त्यहाँबाट भारत पुगेका प्रसाईं त्यहाँ ३ वटा सहर घुम्दै आसाम पुगेको नेपाल प्रहरीका एकजना उच्च अधिकृतले रातोपाटीलाई बताए । सुरुमा उनी उत्तर प्रदेशस्थित प्रयागराज पुगेका थिए । .......... आफ्ना सहयोगी दीपक खड्कासहित प्रसाईं त्यहाँबाट लखनउ र राजस्थान पनि पुगेको खुलेको छ । काठमाडौँबाट फरार भएको करिब दुई साता उनले भारतमा बिताए । अनुसन्धानमा संलग्न एकजना अधिकृतले भने, ‘लखनउबाट राजस्थान घुमेर उनी आसाम पुगेको देखिन्छ ।’ ......... आसाममा उनी नाता पर्ने एकजना स्थानीय हिन्दुवादी नेताको घरमा बसिरहेको अवस्थामा पक्राउ परेका हुन् । बिहीबार साँझ आसाममा पक्राउ परेपछि प्रसाईं निकटहरुले ‘समर्पण’ गरेको दावी गरे । तर, उनले आत्मसमर्पण नगरेको प्रहरी अधिकारीहरू बताउँछन् । भद्रपुर विमानस्थलमा सञ्चारकर्मीहरूलाई प्रतिक्रिया दिँदै उनले भने, ‘मैले आफैँ पक्राउ दिएको हुँ ।’ ........ फरार हुँदा प्रसाईंले सामाजिक सञ्जाल मार्फत दुईवटा भिडियो सन्देश सार्वजनिक गरेका थिए । सार्वजनिक दुईवटा भिडियोमध्ये एउटा आसाममा उनी बसेको घर नजिकैको मन्दिरमा रेकर्ड गरेको भेटिएको छ । एउटा भिडियो चाहिँ कम्प्युटर एनिमेशन गरेर तयार गरेको अनुसन्धान अधिकृतहरू बताउँछन् । ........ प्रसाईं आसाममा पक्राउ परेको सूचना विशेष ब्युरोबाट चुहिएको थियो । तर, आरोपी सुपुर्दगी गर्न आवश्यक सन्धि नभएको हुनाले उनलाई झापामा पक्राउ गरेको देखाउन प्रहरी बाध्य भएको थियो । बिहीबार राति विज्ञप्ति प्रकाशन गरेर प्रसाईं पक्राउ नपरेको जिकिर गरेका प्रहरी प्रवक्ता (डीआईजी) दिनेश आचार्यले २४ घण्टा नबित्दै अर्को विज्ञप्ति निकालेर प्रसाईं पक्राउ गरेको जानकारी दिएका छन् । ...... प्रहरीले शुक्रबार उनलाई काठमाडौँ ल्याएर अदालतमा उपस्थित गराएको छ । काठमाडौँ जिल्ला अदालतले शुक्रबार नै उनीविरुद्ध १२ दिन म्याद थप गरेर प्रहरीलाई अनुसन्धान गर्न मार्ग प्रशस्त गरिदिएको छ । प्रसाईसँगै रहेका सहयोगी खड्का पनि पक्राउ परेकामा उनीविरुद्ध पनि १२ दिनकै म्याद थप भएको छ ।

दुर्गा प्रसाईंले भने– म आत्तिएको छैन, यो तस्करविरुद्धको लडाइँ हो (भिडियो) उनले आफूलाई प्रहरीले पक्राउ गरेको नभई आफैँ गिरफ्तारी दिएको पनि दाबी गरे । ‘म आत्तिएको छैन । यो तस्करविरुद्धको लडाइँ हो । अर्को कुरा मैले आफैँ पक्राउ देको है फेरि....’, उनले भने।

गणतन्त्र भर्सेस राजतन्त्र : प्रचण्ड र गिरिजाहरूसँग किन गुनासो गर्छन् ज्ञानेन्द्र? २०६२–६३ को जनआन्दोलन उत्कर्षमा पुगेपछि त्यसको नेतृत्व गरिरहेका नेपाली कांग्रेसका तत्कालीन सभापति स्व.गिरिजाप्रसाद कोइराला लगायतका नेताहरूले दरबारसँग आन्तारिक सम्झौता गरे । उक्त सम्झौतापछि तत्कालीन राजा ज्ञानेन्द्र शाह राजगद्धी छाड्न तयार भए र नेपालमा लोकतान्त्रिक गणतन्त्र स्थापना सम्भव भयो । तर पछिल्ला वर्ष पूर्वराजा ज्ञानेन्द्र शाहले त्यसबेला गरिएको सम्झौता अनुसार देशको राजनीति अघि नबढेको गुनासो गर्दै आएका छन् । त्यसबेला आफूसँग गरिएको ‘आन्तरिक सम्झौता’ दलहरूले बेवास्ता गरेको उनको गुनासो हो । ......... २००७ साल, २०१७ को ‘कू’, २०२७ सालको झापा विद्रोह, २०३६ सालको जनमत संग्रह, २०४६ सालको जनआन्दोलन र त्यसपछिका उथलपुथल प्रयाजसो एक–एक दशकभित्रै हुँदै आएका राजनीतिक घटनाक्रम हुन् । ..... गृहमन्त्री रमेश लेखकले पछिल्लो ७० वर्षमा नेपालले ७ वटा संविधान फेरिसकेको र धेरै संविधान फेरिनु अस्थिरताको संकेत भएको बताए । उनले अब यो संविधान पनि असफल भए अस्थिरताको अन्त्यहीन शृङ्खला सुरु हुने र भावी पुस्ताका लागि अन्याय हुने चेतावनी दिए ।

What If China Wins the Trade War? If Donald Trump were trying to lose his trade war with China, it’s hard to see what he would be doing differently. The president’s gambit is likely to strengthen China’s geopolitical position, embolden Beijing militarily, and diminish both the United States’ global standing and its economy. ......... China produces more than 70 percent of the world’s lithium-ion batteries, air conditioners, and cookware; more than 80 percent of the world’s smartphones, kitchen appliances, and toys; and about 90 percent of the world’s solar panels and processed rare earth minerals, the latter of which are crucial inputs to cars, phones, and several key military technologies. .......... Pivoting to producing these goods at home would take years, if not decades: It would involve forming new companies, building new factories, creating supply chains from scratch, and training fleets of workers. For it to happen at all, companies would have to be confident that the tariffs would be in place for the long term. China, meanwhile, is only heavily dependent on the U.S. for a small fraction of its imports, and most of those items, such as soybeans and sorghum, can be imported from elsewhere........ China can redirect some of its exports to countries in Europe and East Asia, whose citizens also need phones, toys, and toasters. Beijing could also give money to its own citizens to create more demand for its products at home and provide subsidies to its businesses to help them remain solvent. This asymmetry gives China what the economist Adam Posen calls “escalation dominance”: the ability to inflict disproportionate harm on its economic enemy. .......... China’s advantage has been bolstered by years of meticulous preparation. Multiple China watchers told me that Trump’s 2018 trade war—in which, at its height, the U.S. imposed an average tariff of about 20 percent on Chinese goods—convinced Beijing that it had to be ready to engage in economic combat at a moment’s notice. Since then, China has invested heavily in such industries as energy, agriculture, and semiconductor production to reduce its dependence on American imports, while pursuing a concerted strategy to consume more goods at home and find new non-U.S. export markets. The goal of these efforts, in the words of Chinese President Xi Jinping, is to “ensure the normal operation of the national economy under extreme circumstances.” ............. Beijing has also built an arsenal of offensive economic weapons. Already, China has responded to Trump’s trade war by banning exports of several rare earth minerals, a move intended to produce shortages of both major consumer goods (such as cars and phones) and military equipment (such as submarines and fighter jets); launching antitrust investigations into DuPont and Google; and halting all business with Boeing, America’s top aircraft manufacturer. If the situation escalates further, Beijing might block certain high-profile U.S. companies, such as Apple and Tesla, from doing any business in China at all. Then there’s the nuclear option: China, the second-largest foreign holder of U.S. debt, could quickly sell off a sizable chunk of its $760 billion in U.S. Treasuries, a move that would send interest rates soaring, spook investors, and perhaps even trigger a financial crisis. ............... “China is ready for this fight,” Yeling Tan, a public-policy professor at Oxford University who focuses on Chinese political economy, told me. “It has been busy preparing for an entrenched economic conflict with the U.S. for a long time.” .......... the United States could still defeat China in a trade war if it does everything right. The problem is that the Trump administration is doing everything wrong. ............ Trump has, of course, done nearly the opposite of everything I just described. Instead of spending years, or even months, investing in American industry, Trump is angling to get rid of the major investments in semiconductor and clean-energy manufacturing implemented under the Biden administration. Instead of engaging in a gradual tariff rollout, the administration jacked up tariffs to 145 percent over the course of a few weeks. Instead of providing businesses and investors with clear guidance, the administration has changed its story by the day, if not the hour. And instead of building a coalition of allies, Trump has spent the past few months threatening, feuding with, and tariffing them. Even if the U.S. were to suddenly change course and try to build an anti-China coalition, a prospect recently floated by Bessent, it is likely too late. What country would sign up for economic hardship for the sake of an “ally” that has not only treated it poorly but has also repeatedly demonstrated that it can’t be trusted to honor any bargain? ............ Voters consistently cited inflation as the most important issue in the 2024 election. How will they react when the politician who promised lower prices instead presides over the opposite? ........... Many economists warn of a return to 1970s-style stagflation: the toxic combination of soaring prices and rising unemployment. ......... He has already broken the cardinal rule of trade wars—never tell your opponent where your breaking point is—by “pausing” his global reciprocal tariff policy in the face of chaos in the bond market. Even if Trump were willing to withstand the political pressure for longer this time, he’s unlikely to outlast Xi Jinping, who faces neither term limits nor elections. “Beijing is very good at waiting,” Dan Wang, a research fellow at the Hoover Institution, told me. “They might not be able to last forever, but they can certainly last longer than a single election cycle.” .............. In all likelihood, then, Trump will eventually be forced to back down. This might take the form of a deal in which China agrees to largely symbolic concessions that allow Trump to save face. (This is how the first Trump-China trade war de-escalated.) But China might not be so quick to offer Trump an easy way out. In that case, surrender might instead take the form of a series of tariff carve-outs to different industries, to the point where the exceptions exceed the actual tariffs. In either case, the result would be the same: The U.S. would have inflicted considerable economic pain on itself without getting much in return. ............... a failed trade war could make the chances of an actual war more likely. You might even say that Trump’s tariff policy sounds a bit like the “disastrous” American military adventures that he has so often criticized. Only this time, he’s the one leading the charge.