31: Iran

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The clerical regime that has ruled Iran over the last four decades is terminally ill, yet it continues to endure, in part due to a lack of viable alternatives. It cannot meaningfully reform, out of well-founded fears that doing so would hasten its death. The four horsemen of Iran’s economy — inflation, corruption, mismanagement, and brain drain — are endemic. The common denominators between Iran and its regional spheres of influence — Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, and Iraq — are insecurity, economic failure, and profound unhappiness. ....... Mr. Khamenei’s priority has never been about Iran’s national interest, but it’s to keep his regime united and the international community divided....... The paradox of the Islamic Republic is that it tends to compromise only under severe pressure, yet that same external pressure and isolation help keep it alive.

31: Balen Shah, Kulman Ghising

Kalki

Mr. Khamenei recognizes that rapprochement with the United States poses far more of an existential threat to him than continued Cold War. ........ Few examples exist of Iran agreeing to meaningful compromise, but nearly all of them have been under similar circumstances: a combination of sustained global pressure and rigorous U.S. diplomacy, to achieve a specific resolution. ........ “Revolutionary powers don’t think the way others do,” he told me. “They don’t want a different place in the world; they want a different world. It’s no good thinking you can change them, but a moment may come when they begin to doubt or to get over their revolution … then you can start something.” ........ one of the diplomatic architects of the 2015 nuclear agreement with Iran, wrote that the agreement was spawned by “tough-minded diplomacy, backed up by the economic leverage of sanctions, the political leverage of an international consensus, and the military leverage of the potential use of force.” ..........