Monday, December 03, 2012

The NC, Fair Polls And The Game Of Musical Chairs



The NC has been pushing three arguments as to why a NC person should be Prime Minister.

To say the NC alone can conduct fresh elections in the country is outright slander, especially when the current government is willing to give the Home Ministry to the NC.

The second argument is that it is the NC's turn. That is hogwash. Mahantha Thakur's party has never been in power at the top. Perhaps it is his turn.

The third argument is that the NC was promised the premiership of the election government. That is true, but that is only the partial truth. The other big chunk of that truth is that once the NC had agreed to settle on all issues related to the constitution and the country had managed to get a constitution then the NC would be allowed to lead the government that would hold parliamentary elections in the country. But we are not staring at parliamentary elections. We are staring at elections to a new constituent assembly.

This third is the weirdest of all arguments. It is like some guy went shopping. The guy promised the shopkeeper he would give him money if the shopkeeper gave him the bicycle. The shopkeeper promised to give him the bicycle if the guy gave him the money. The guy never gave money, but started arguing the shopkeeper promised him the bike and was now not giving it to him. That is what the NC is doing.

UML ready to lead next govt: Khanal
'I am impatient to relinquish power'
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Baburam's Options


Baburam can resign. It is a free will thing. He is a free human being. And he could exercise that option. But as a disciplined soldier of the Maoist party he might not take such an action unless he has his party's backing for it.

Baburam could reorganize his cabinet. He could reshuffle it. That is the prerogative of any Prime Minister.

Baburam could also expand his cabinet. He could add a few Deputy Prime Ministers. He could add a few ministers. This might be his best available option right now. And that might just be the step to break the gridlock.

The breakaway Maoists have to realize the current polarization in the country is between the federalist and the anti-federalist forces and they necessarily have to side with the federalists. Federalism has been a gift of the Madhesi Kranti, but the ground for it was prepared by the Maoist movement. It is not possible for Baidya and Badal to see common ground with the NC and the UML.

Ashok Rai and Upendra Yadav also belong in the federalist camp.

Baburam should reach out to these three individuals and expand his cabinet accordingly. That might be the right move for the current polarization in the country. I happen to think that polarization is a positive thing.

Panchayat was a no party system. The thinking was if you allow parties that will fragment the society. Similarly consensus is a regressive concept. Political polarization is a good thing. It leads to progress.

The Maoists were as opposed to the seven parties as they were to the king. But they realized an alliance with the parties was a must to topple the king.

Down the line Upendra Yadav, Ashok Rai and Ram Bahadur Thapa Badal might all compete with Baburam Bhattarai electorally, but for now they have to understand the ground reality and see they belong on the federalist side. They should see common cause.

Instead of harping on the self evident truth that Ram Baran can not dismiss him Baburam should go ahead and expand his cabinet and bring the federalist forces inside to further isolate the non federalists, namely the NC, the UML and the monarchists.

No different
Consensus distant as ever as extended deadline looms

Obama Administration Warns Syria Against Using Chemical Weapons
What will Nitish Kumar do if Narendra Modi is PM candidate? Lalu asks

Dahal hints at not quitting power soon
PM must go: Opposition parties
Upendra Yadav meets prez
No progress in unification talks: Yadav
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Sunday, December 02, 2012

Broadening The Ruling Alliance


Dahal is an option. Mahantha Thakur is an option. It does not have to be Baburam Bhattarai, although I don't see why not?

The UML is supporting the NC candidate. But that is not enough to move the ball in the NC's favor.

The only thing the parties agree on is they don't want a non political PM.

The president can not unilaterally take action. Which means Baburam Bhattarai can not be forced to resign. And he is only willing to resign if there is a consensus on a new name. But that consensus can not be a dictation by the NC. That consensus has to have Maoist participation, a simple fact that the NC does not seem to take into account.

The extreme inflexibility shown by the NC and the UML is as undemocratic as their stand against federalism even when two thirds of the constituent assembly had put down their signatures for it. To give in would be to accept defeat when defeat is highly unnecessary.

One unilateral action Baburam Bhattarai could take is induct Upendra Yadav as a Deputy PM and offer to make Ram Bahadur Thapa Badal a Deputy PM as well. I think such a step would reduce the NC, the UML and its supporting parties to a 20% strength or less.

If I were Baburam I would also induct Ashok Rai into the cabinet. That would be a blatant blow to the UML which is being quite unreasonable.

As a last resort the president has to pass the election related ordinances and let Baburam conduction elections in April 2013. I mean, why not? What will be another sound alternative?

If I were Baburam I would reach out to Upendra Yadav, Ram Bahadur Thapa Badal and Ashok Rai and get them to participate. That would put additional pressure on the president to pass on the election related ordinances.

रोकिएलान् राष्ट्रपति?
आफैंले काम चलाउ भनिसकेको सरकार बर्खास्त गर्ने संवैधानिक बाटो नरहेकोमा राष्ट्रपतिमा कुनै द्विविधा छैन।
‘मधेशी नेताबाट प्रधानमन्त्रीको सम्भावना छैन’
दलहरु गम्भीर छलफलमा जुटेनन् सहमति नभए सबै विफल हुने राष्ट्रपतिको चिन्ता
राष्ट्रपति रामवरण यादवले थपिएको सात दिनभित्र राजनीतिक दलहरुले राष्ट्रिय सहमतिको सरकार गठनबारे ठोस सहमति नजुटाए दलहरुसंगै आफु पनि विफल हुने चिन्ता व्यक्त गरेका छन्।
सहमतीय सरकारको नेतृत्वबारे दलहरुबीच विवाद
राष्ट्रपति रामवरण यादवले अहिलेकै सरकारलाई राष्ट्रिय सहमतीय सरकार बनाउन सकिने प्रतिक्रिया दिएको भोलिपल्ट सत्तापक्षीय र विपक्षी दलहरुबीच सहमतीय सरकारको नेतृत्व बारेको विवाद झनै चर्किएको छ। .... अहिलेकै सरकारमा सबैको सहमति भए सुनमा सुगन्ध हुने भन्ने राष्ट्रपतिको प्रतिक्रिया सार्वजनिक भएको भोलिपल्ट दलहरुबीचको विवाद बढेको देखियो।
सुशील कोइरालासंग-28.11.12
Bhattarai to lead national consensus govt: UCPN (Maoist)
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Saturday, December 01, 2012

Four Poles: One PM, Three DPMs


Baburam Bhattarai is an obvious name. He is the sitting Prime Minister. Even Dahal proposing the Mahantha Thakur name does not change the fact that this is one pole, the leading pole.

Sushil Koirala is the candidate for the NC, the UML and the monarchist parties. This is the second pole, though not the second biggest.

The Fourth Pole
Upendra Yadav: Fourth Pole?

Ram Bahadur Thapa Badal's name has been proposed. This is the third pole. This is composed of the far left parties.

Upendra Yadav's name has also been proposed. This is the fourth pole. My guess is this is the second largest pole in the country right now. But it will be for the elections to prove. I think this alliance will produce more than one Chief Minister down the line.

A compromise position would be for Baburam Bhattarai to be Prime Minister, and for Upendra Yadav, Sushil Koirala and Ram Bahadur Thapa to be Deputy Prime Ministers. The UML could get Home, Sharad Singh Bhandari could get defense, and Baidya could lead Finance.


No time for squabble
Why Baidya fielded Thapa for PM

Govt payments grind to a halt
Koirala's talks with Upendra Yadav 'fruitful'
Upendra Yadav meets prez
No progress in unification talks: Yadav
Karan Singh in Nepal with 'political mission'
Sing, leaders throng to Rana's dinner party
PM's stubbornness holding country hostage to indecision: Oli
Congress doesn't rule out third party option
The Supreme Court will not let the reinstated CA work
MRP not against the spirit of free market economy: PM
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Thursday, November 29, 2012

The Polarization Is A Good Thing



Consensus is a strange political concept. Frankly it is a Panchayati concept. Consensus was what the king wanted to happen.

2006 saw a polarization between the pro king and the anti king forces. That polarization was a good thing. Today the polarization is between the federalist forces and the anti federalist forces. This polarization is also a good thing.

Once a democratically legitimate government acquires the status of a caretaker government, that government stays in place until another elected government shows up to take its place. That is the democratic way.

The quickest way for the NC and the UML to get rid of Baburam Bhattarai is to speed up the elections and to do well in those elections.

But I think the NC and the UML know they are not going to do well at the polls. So to them political paralysis itself is achievement. Elections will mean federalism. But political paralysis means federalism is denied. And in paralysis they see victory.

It is not for a constitutional head like Ram Baran Yadav to make and break governments. It is for the political process to make that decision.

The reason the NC and the UML want Baburam to resign is because such a resignation would create something worse than the current political paralysis. It would create a political vacuum. And they want that. If political paralysis is bad for the cause of federalism, a political vacuum would be even a worse blow to that federalism. And they want that.

Baburam Bhattarai has been flexible. He has been open to inducting NC and UML people into the government. He has been open to giving the Home Ministry to the NC. Heck, he is still even open to resigning - something he is not required to do according to the constitution, but he could make such a political move if he wants, it is a free will thing - but his precondition is a valid one. First all the parties have to agree as to who will replace him, and then he will resign.

But that agreement is not happening.

And that begs the question. If Ram Baran Yadav is merely the Queen of England, and the executive power in the country rests with the Prime Minister, why did Ram Baran Yadav ever hold talks with political parties on so called consensus? The Queen of England does not hold political meetings. The president of India does not hold political meetings.

My conclusion is Ram Baran Yadav is solely responsible for the current political paralysis. It was and is his responsibility to pass the election related ordinances so that the Baburam Bhattarai government can hold elections in April 2013.

That really is the only legal, constitutional solution. That is how you break the gridlock.

Ram Baran Yadav was 100% a political person before he became president. If he had not become president he would have been a strong supporter of the anti federalist forces in the country today. This is a guy who badmouthed the Madhesi Kranti every step of the way. Yes, the biggest beneficiary of the Madhesi Kranti was one of its strongest opponents when it happened.

I think his current bad behavior as president is him acting like an anti federalist. A constitutional head is supposed to be politically neutral. He is not being neutral. In pushing the concept of consensus what he is doing is he is giving veto power to the NC and the UML, the two leading anti federalist factions in the country today.

This is wrong.

The anti-federalists hold a valid, democratic viewpoint. They are entitled to their worldview. But the legitimate step for them to take is to go to the people and seek their support to their worldview. Holding the country hostage is not how you do it. That can only make space for non democratic elements in the country if taken too far, the very forces that the Maoists, the Madhesis and the NC and the UML were united against in 2006.

Either Ram Baran Yadav should stop taking sides, or he is the one who needs to step aside.

Neither the NC nor the UML will cross the 10% mark among votes cast in the next elections. Together they will not get more than 20% of the seats. And that is why they want to drag their feet. They don't want elections to happen.




Mahantha Thakur For PM
A Non Political PM?
What Might The President Do?
The PM Resigning Would Be Weird
NC And UML At Fault
Ram Baran Yadav: Kasturi Mriga
The President, The Prime Minister
NC And UML Do Not Have Veto Power
Dahal's Capitulation Is Wrong
Baburam Bhattarai Will Conduct Elections
Ram Baran Yadav Is Not An Executive President
Why Federalism Bothers Ram Sharan Mahat (2)
Why Federalism Bothers Ram Sharan Mahat

PM candidate nowhere in sight
UCPN (Maoist) Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal floated three names—Deputy Prime Ministers Narayan Kaji Shrestha and Bijay Kumar Gachhadar and Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party Chairman Mahanta Thakur—all of whom were flat-out rejected by the opposition parties. .... “Chairman Prachanda is still against becoming prime minister. If top leaders from the NC and the UML want him to take the leadership then I think we can make him [Dahal] ready for the executive post”
Prez asks Dahal what to do if no consensus
UCPN (M) not to accept Cong at unity govt helm
Dahal has said that Deputy PMs Narayan Kaji Shrestha and Bijaya Kumar Gachhadar and Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party Leader Mahantha Thakur are possible PM candidates from the coalition.Dahal is also learnt to have kept open the option of him standing as a PM candidate. However, this is only when agreement among the parties on the candidate looks virtually impossible and if the parties themselves request Dahal to lead a unity government
US magazine's praise for Nitish Kumar a publicity stunt: Lalu Prasad
Nepal's ex-prince was jailed for drug possession

Paras was caught with a woman
UML presses NC to pick PM candidate
PM threatens intervention in Patan Hospital
New PM only from ruling coalition: UCPN (Maoist)
"NC or UML can get prime minister´s post only after promulgation of the constitution. So, we don´t accept their prime minister now," Horibol Gajurel, UCPN (Maoist) Madhes bureau in-charge, told Republica. He also said NC and UML have no chance to lead national government because UCPN (Maoist) was the largest party in the then CA and also because the FDRA is in majority so an FDRA candidate will be prime minister if not Bhattarai himself or another UCPN (Maoist) leader. ..... "Why will we accept their candidate when they reject ours" ..... Vice-chairman and Deputy Prime Minister Narayankaji Shrestha is Bhattarai´s alternative. ..... "If our party is unable to head the consensus govenrment then either Deputy Prime Minister Bijaya Kumar Gachchhadar or Tarai-Madhes Democratic Party Chairman Mahantha Thakur will be the FDRA candidates for prime minister"
Today's NC CWC meeting to dwell on PM candidate
कांग्रेसलाई प्रष्ट हुन् गच्छदारको आग्रह
अग्रगमन र पश्चगमन बीचको लडाई : प्रधानमन्त्री
ठाकुर र कोइरालाबीच भेटघाट
मिथिलाञ्चलमा मुहर्रमको धुन


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