The Maoists Must Vote To Extend The Term Of The Constituent Assembly By A Year

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If the constituent assembly is allowed to expire, the current government is gone, true. But that does not mean Prachanda becomes the next Prime Minister. Then the power goes to the president. The president gets to appoint a caretaker government. That caretaker government might or might not be the current government. Or we might have an executive presidency for a little while. That caretaker government would have a one point agenda, to hold elections to a new constituent assembly. In that assembly, the Maoists will very likely be a smaller party than they are today. It will still be a fragmented parliament. No party would have an outright majority. And we would be back to square one. There would still be need to put together a coalition to form a new government. There would still be need to put together working coalitions on specific items of the new constitution.

That is the best case scenario. In a bad case scenario you are looking at a worse law and order situation across the country than we already have. Already the leaders have made the mistake of not putting together all party governments at district and local levels. That vacuum leads to a weak law and order situation.

And there is a worst case scenario. A dissolution of the constituent assembly could be too much of a strain on the peace process, and we could be back to a civil war situation, only this time it might be more vicious than the last time. Honestly I don't think that is very likely.

But we don't have to see renewed civil war. An increase in political violence is a very real possibility, and that would be bad enough news.

This constituent assembly's life can not be held hostage to the fact that Prachanda wants to be Prime Minister again. Prachanda is not becoming Prime Minister again for the life of the constituent assembly. That is a foregone conclusion. If any Maoist leads a national unity government, that person is going to be Baburam Bhattarai. The Maoist central committee can decide who will lead the government if and when the Maoists have a majority of their own in the parliament. But for a national unity government all participating parties have to agree to the prime ministerial candidate. That person being Prachanda is highly unlikely. Actually there is no point in agreeing to Prachanda as the leader of that national unity government. Because Prachanda's asinine insistence that he is the only candidate shows he still does not understand how coalition governments run. That lack of understanding is what ended his last tenure as Prime Minister.

The Maoists have to agree to extend the term of the constituent assembly. And a package deal has to be reached. And a national unity government in Baburam Bhattarai's leadership has to be formed. That is the roadmap, but that roadmap starts with the term of the assembly being extended. The national unity government takes shape after that fact, not before.

And if the Maoists do not understand this, they are asking for an executive president in Ram Baran Yadav. Yadav would then lead a government that would hold elections to a new constituent assembly. That would be such a waste. The Maoists should not be so unreasonable and bring about that outcome.

Is Federalism Necessary?
Why Not To Fear The Maoists?
A Roadmap For The Maoists
The Maoists Have Won
The Maoists: Thinking Or Dogmatic?
An Appeal To The Maoists
Prachanda's Second Big Mistake?
The Peace Process Is At Its Most Fragile
Nepal Seeing Major Political Crisis
A 10 Party Government In Baburam Bhattarai's Leadership

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Is Federalism Necessary?

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The idea of federalism in the Nepali context has been part of the social justice agenda. Federalism was that tool that would be finally bring the Khas domination in the country to an end. But it can be argued federalism is not the only or the best way to bring that about. And that federalism does not address the social justice agenda of other marginalized groups like women and the Dalits, especially the Dalits.

In my last post I have been open to the idea of not having a directly elected president or prime minister for Nepal. (Why Not To Fear The Maoists?) In this post I am going to be open to the idea of not going for federalism in Nepal and instead having three layers of government: national, district, and local.

This is not me now being opposed to the idea of federalism. This is me saying I am open to other ideas that might achieve the same goals. This is me open to the thought that maybe there is no other idea that will achieve the goals that federalism would.

What could be the alternative to federalism? The 45% reservation for the DaMaJaMa in all new job openings in the government services already in place has to be further strengthened. That has to stay in place with or without federalism. That would apply to the army, to the police, and to all the government ministries.

The alternative to federalism would be to have 75 district governments in the 75 districts of the country, and have those as the 75 constituencies for elections to the national parliament using the most popular form of elections in the world.

Meeting Ground Between Congress And Maoists: 75 Multi Member Constituencies
Compromise Formula: 75 Multi Member Constituencies

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Why Not To Fear The Maoists?

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Nepal is scheduled to have coalition governments for a long, long time to come, just like India. That might be a good reason to not fear the Maoists. And because Nepal is not about to become a two party democracy like America, it perhaps makes sense to not have a presidential form of government in Nepal, or a directly elected Prime Minister, which is the same thing by another name.

Not only will you have coalition government for a long time, you will also have three different layers of government. One party might be leading the government at the center as a minority party. And it would be very possible that party is not leading the government in about half of the states. It will be very likely that party will not be in power in the vast majority of local governments.

And you would have periodic elections. You might have elections to the national parliament this year. Next year you might have elections for the state parliaments. The year after that you might have elections to the local governments. The party leading the national government might likely suffer during the state and local elections because it did not meet the expectations of the people and sufficient disaffection built up against them among the electorate.

And so the UML and the Nepali Congress need to stop beating the dead horse, they need to stop scaring people with the imagery of a possible Maoist takeover of state power which they do to bring the people under their fold of pre-social justice thoughts. The king used to do the same thing to try and bring people under his dictator tent.

A Roadmap For The Maoists

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