Democracy For Nepal

Tuesday, May 05, 2009

Is An All Party Government Possible, Desirable?

Worst Case Scenarios

Renewed civil war.
Failed state.
Cambodia.

Bad Case Scenarios

Political paralysis.
Widespread YCL excesses.
Appeasement of the Maoists' dictatorial tendencies.

Two Knotty Issues

Security sector reform.
Land reform.

Solution: Parliamentary Supremacy

Attempt an all party government.
Form an all party steering committee.
Hold full fledged debates/discussions in the parliament on security sector reform and land reform.
Pass a law to force all political parties to make their book keeping public.
Let the parliament shape the idea of a new army for the country. A bill passed in the parliament would decide as to the size and shape of the future army. It might end up 30,000 strong, about 20,000 from the Nepal Army, about 4,000 from the Maoist Army, and 6,000 from elsewhere. There must be criteria - physical and otherwise - that all soldiers must meet, to be professionally determined.
Form an all party Land Reform Commission. All property captured by the Maoists during the 10 years will go under the guardianship of that commission. It would be for a duly elected parliament next year to decide as to what to do with that property. If the Maoists want land reform, they get to shape that land reform bill to be passed by the next parliament.

Who Could Lead An All Party Government?

Prachanda is an option.
So would be someone else.

Who Would Lead The All Party Steering Committee?

Madhav Nepal is an option.
So would be someone else.

Appeasement: Not An Option

They tried that with Hitler. Let him have a small country, he will leave the rest of Europe alone. Appeasement does not work. That appeasement lead to World War II.
Appeasing Prachanda's and the Maoists' dictatorial tendencies is not an option.
There can be no compromise on multi-party democracy.
Security sector reform is an option: heck, it is desirable. Land reform is an option: heck, it is long overdue. Federalism is a must. The Maoists can have all that.
What they can never hope to have is a one party communist republic. There we have to draw the line. The YCL does not get to engage in use of force. (Madman Prachanda, Hindenburg Girija, Youth Communist League: Prachanda's Brown Shirts)

Reality Check

But we can not assume the Maoists want an all party government.
If all the other parties come together and prove a majority in the parliament, they are the legitimate government. That is how it works. The Maoists don't then have the option to threaten the workers of the other parties in the districts. If they do, the state has to counter them.
The non-Maoist parties can not engage in appeasement.
All you need is a majority in the parliament to have a government.
The Maoists have to show they can sit in the opposition also. They have work to do to show they are up for multi-party democracy and rule of law.

Options For A New Coalition Government

It is important to form a government of all parties minus the Maoists. They need to be taught a lesson.

If the Maoists then resort to use of physical force in the streets, that physical force has to be countered by the state. It might end up being a clash between the YCL and the Armed Police Force. Hopefully the PLA and the NA stay out of it.

If necessary, Prachanda should be arrested in that scenario. (Comrade Gonzalo Of Peru: A Profile) It can not be legal for you to lead an organization that uses force. You have a right to organize, you have a right to engage in peaceful assembly. But you have no right to incite unlawful uses of force.

Democratic Options (2005)
The Hardliner Democrat Approach
The Bombing Of A Bus

If the option is between renewed civil war and Maoist anarchy, civil war is a better option. And the Maoists will have to take responsibility if there is new bloodshed.

Mistakes

The Nepal Army recruiting 3,000 new soldiers was a mistake. That step was a peace time Dhoramba. That was the feudals wanting to disturb the peace, and the Maoists played into their hands. The Supreme Court saying it was okay for the army to recruit new soldiers shows some foul play might have been involved. Were some justices bribed by the old establishment? But the Maoists don't get to mix the old establishment with the duly elected political parties, many of whose leaders are of middle class backgrounds.

Land Reform

The Maoists and the UML should be able to come up with a just land reform agenda for the country. And if the Maoists don't feel the need to at least take the UML into confidence, it is not land reform they have in mind but dictatorship. That can not be allowed.

Militarists, Maoists, Monotones, Dorambaites, Naxalites (2005)
Militarists Attempting A Doramba Repeat To End Ceasefire (2005)

Prime Minister Upendra Yadav?

There were two victors in the April 10, 2008 elections: the Maoists, and the MJF. And the MJF is the only political party in the country with a track record of having successfully countered the Maoists.

There is no compromising the rule of law. The Maoists do not get to enage in muscle power. They do not get to engage in a rein of terror.

In The News

Video shows Dahal admitting real strength of PLA not more than 8,000; sharing plans to control army and capture state NepalNews the video which the channel claimed was from January 2, 2008 when the Maoists were an important constituent of the Girija Prasad Koirala led interim government ....... "We were (PLA's strength) somewhere between 7,000 and 8,000. If we had reported the correct figure of the PLA, then it would then have been reduced to around 4,000."......... "But our party's leadership decided to report PLA strength as 35,000, and thanks to it the PLA's strength is now 20,000 at least," he said smilingly, evoking peels of laughter around him.........."So our strength has actually increased. You and I know the truth, but why should we tell it to others." ...... apart from the PLA, which he said is now already a "regular army", the party has also formed YCL comprising thousands of youths despite various difficulties and "who now add to our strength". ....... The Maoist chairman also revealed that a significant share of the money that will go to "our martyrs" in villages throughout the country and the PLA in cantonments will be used by the party to prepare for revolt and ultimately capture the state. ...... "You all know that if we have enough money in our hands we can prepare a good battle plan. So, the party needs a good amount of money for the revolt," he said...... though the party may appear to have again reached a compromise (with the state and political parties), "but if you look deeply then you will know how seriously the party is preparing for the ultimate revolt". ..... Claiming that PLA combatants are "politically aware", he said even a small number of their entry into NA is enough to establish complete Maoist control over the army.
Maoists warn NC, UML cadres to leave Ramechhap, gun fires kill one in Rolpa
22 parties meeting inconclusive Madhesi Janadhikar Forum, a key component for formation of new government, was absent from the meeting and is unlikely to give its decision until party chairman Upendra Yadav returns from his foreign visit. The party also has laid claimed for the post of prime minister.
Form new government by Saturday: President
SC issues show cause order to president INHURED International filed the case seeking cancellation of the president’s move
Maoists disrupt House proceedings the new government will not be formed until president corrects his action.
Police arrest civil society activists
UNSG saddened by Nepal’s political development
NDF meeting postponed
EU expresses concern over recent political developments
Maoists to launch agitation from House and street

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Tuesday, May 05, 2009

Is An All Party Government Possible, Desirable?

Options For A New Coalition Government

Prime Minister Upendra Yadav?