If the parliament will not bring forth a new government - either a majority government or an all party government - by the deadline - tomorrow - there will be but one option left: presidential rule. The president will have to go ahead and declare an emergency.
After six months the parliament will have the option again to bring forth either a majority government or an all party government.
Three Big Advantages
The president gets to run the country. He need not assemble his cabinet from inside the parliament. He can assemble a team of technocrats.
The political parties and the parliament get to work on a new constitution, which is what they were elected to do in the first place.
The country gets a taste of an executive presidency which is what we should shoot for in a new constitution. We don't need a new government every year. We want a directly elected president who stays in power for four years.
The right way to sack Katuwal would have been this.
Get all parties in power to agree to the idea. But if they don't agree to it, then don't go for it.
But if all parties in power would have agreed to it, Prachanda still needed to send that decision to the president.
The president then would have had the option to send the decision back to the cabinet for reconsideration.
The cabinet - with all party agreement - could then have sent it back to the president all over again saying they still stand by it.
At that point the president would have had no option but to forward the letter to the army chief who would then have been duly sacked.
Prachanda's Two Big Mistakes
He did not seek the consensus of his coalition partners.
He did not go through the president. He bypassed the president.
Who Apologizes?
President Yadav has nothing to apologize for. His job is to protect the constitution, and he did that.
Prachanda already apologized by resigning. So there is no need for him to apologize again.
What next?
Form a new government.
That can be an all party government, or it can be a simple majority government.
Having a simple majority government does not mean we will then automatically lack the two thirds majority needed for work on the new constitution.
Writing a new constitution is separate from running a government.
Who Will Lead?
Technically speaking Prachanda can lead again. Technically speaking Baburam can lead. But politically speaking it makes no sense for the Maoists to lead. They already tried and failed.
A new leader from a new party needs to come forth. I see a consensus building around the Madhav Nepal name.
The Maoists will have the option to join that government or support it from outside.
The UML, the NC, the MJF, the TMDP, and the SP must be part of the new government.
The UML should lead. The Maoists have the option to join or not.
First Priority: Law And Order
The new government is going to have to domesticate the YCL. That organization may not engage in use of force. Period.
The Maoists have a right to peacefully protest, but they are barely one third of the parliament, they don't get to prevent the formation of a new government.
Katuwal
I hear he is scheduled to be out within months. That might be the best way to let him go.
The Maoists might have tried proving in court instead that he is way past retirement age.
In The News
PM Dahal meets Koirala NepalNews Koirala asked Dahal to cooperate in forming a government of national consensus. Dahal on his part said he would consider the proposal. ...... Dahal also tried to allay fears of NC leadership regarding the controversial videotape containing his speech during a close-door training to PLA commanders one and half years ago. ...... He had headed straight to Koirala residence after attending his party's politburo meeting held at Bhaktapur. ...... NC leaders Sher Bahadur Deuba and Krishna Prasad Sitaula were also present at the meeting. Prez consults CA chairman on procedure of appointing new PM there is no other way of appointing a PM except taking the issue to the parliament ...... Maoists CA members have disrupted the proceedings of the House for two consecutive days Maoist politburo for more protests to revert President's move Both the parties need support from Madhesi parties to garner majority for the new government. Madhesi parties have sought consensus on their agendas in return for their support. ..... On Wednesday, caretaker Prime Minister Dahal claimed the new government would also be under his party's leadership. 'UML leadership for unity govt has already been agreed upon' said it's certain that the next government would be led by UML and what is being awaited now is a formal decision of the UML with the nomination of its leader, who will become the Prime Minister. ...... the Maoists should be part of the new coalition, but they cannot take the leadership. ...... Madhesi parties, whose participation or support is a must for the new ruling coalition to take shape, are yet to make their positions clear Minister Yadav issues 'death threat' against journo Maoists threaten cadres of other parties in Siraha Crisis with a Silver Line They have publicly and unequivocally avowed that their ultimate goal remains to convert Nepal into a people’s republic. The ruling coalition partners and opposition parties were deeply worried about it. Excesses of the Young Communist League, a Maoist outfit, have always been a cause of serious concern for other parties and the public. YCL members engage in preventing and disrupting activities of other political parties and in killing and maiming their opponents. ........ the neutrality of the civil service, police and intelligence was being dented by stuffing Maoist loyalists and supporters in senior posts ........ Maoists were trying to undermine the judiciary’s independence by cowing the courts to give verdicts of their liking. The military brass was under enormous pressure to integrate into army ranks the 19,000 Maoist combatants living in the 7 UN-monitored cantonments. ......... Children cannot go to school; the sick cannot go to hospitals; and employees cannot go to their jobs. People are forced to live in dark, because there is power outage of more than 12 hours every day. There is no petrol at the gas station, no running water at the tap, no cooking gas in the store. ......... Investors are looking elsewhere to invest. ..... The dismissal of the army chief was the last straw that broke the patience of UML ....... UML walked out of the government in protest and pulled the crisis’s trigger. ....... But they cannot govern, and the Maoists will make sure of it by churning the streets and by disrupting the house ........ you cannot possibly leave the largest party in the house – they have 238 seats out of 601 -- out of government altogether if you are serious about writing the constitution, whose approval requires a two-thirds majority. .......... if the Maoists have been a problem player in the government, they could prove a nightmare out of it. ........ a government that commands at least a two-thirds majority in the constituent assembly. A government of simple majority should be the last option.
Dahal dubs videotape scandal a ploy against peace process; claims Maoist military strength to be much higher NepalNews 'UML set to pick Nepal as coalition leader' CPN (UML) is set to choose Madhav Kumar Nepal as the leader of the next coalition that will form the government ...... "Madhav Kumar Nepal has the ability to bring together different parties. UML is going to pick him unanimously [as the leader of the next coalition]," said Bidhya Devi Bhandari, UML vice-chairperson. She added that two UML leaders - chairman Jhala Nath Khanal and K.P Sharma Oli - are eligible for the post of Prime Minister. ......... a government of national consensus would be formed under the UML's leadership. ....... Unified CPN (Maoist), is showing undemocratic behavior by obstructing the parliament. Madheshi parties call for consensus govt A joint meeting of Madheshi Janadhikar Forum, Terai-Madhesh Loktantrik Party and Sadbhawana Party organised at Singha Durbar, Wednesday decided to stand by a government of national consensus that could address the needs of the people of Madhesh. ..... The parties will support a party which shows commitment towards fulfilling the agreement of February 28, 2008 with the Madheshi community, MJF vice chairman JP Gupta said. ...... The meeting was organised soon after MJF chairman Upendra Yadav returned form his foreign tour. Envoys meet PM Dahal, Khanal PM Dahal expressed his commitment to peace process and national consensus, mentioning that he resigned from his post to protect civil supremacy. PM Dahal holds fence-mending meeting with Khanal In his first political meeting after resignation as Prime Minister, Maoist chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal met CPN (UML) chairman Jhala Nath Khanal at the latter's residence in Chhauni Wednesday morning. ..... Khanal said formation of "national consensus government" and constitution-making process were discussed ..... "I found him somewhat agitated and at the same time he expressed his disappointment." ...... Dahal told reporters after the meeting that they agreed to continue the politics of cooperation and consensus not to let the peace process derail. ..... Khanal informed journalists quoting PM Dahal that obstruction in the House would continue until the President admits his mistake and revokes the decision against government action against the army chief. Khanal said that he informed the PM about threats issued by the Maoists in various districts including Ramechhap and Kailali. Govt formation within deadline unlikely The humiliation of having to resign from the government still afresh in their minds, Maoist leaders and cadres have started taking vengeance against their NC and UML counterparts. ...... Maoists rank and file has been pressurising the party leadership to rather stay in opposition than erode their public image by not being able to implement their policies when in the government. ..... the party will not easily accept to lead the government again even if offered, let alone joining the government under other parties. ....... The NC has agreed to form new government under the leadership of UML. However, these two parties do not have enough seats in the parliament to get a majority. They will be able to form the government only if Madheshi Janadhikar Forum and a few fringe parties support them. ....... Having understood their importance well, the MJF chairman has already put forward conditions to the UML-NC alliance. ....... MJF has covertly expressed interest to lead the future coalition. “It’s a different matter if we get (the post of) Prime Minister, otherwise we don’t need to jeopardize our vote bank by the digressing from our ideological stance,” a close confidant of MJF chairman Yadav quoted the latter as saying. .......... MJF leaders have accused Congress and UML of not having a strong vision about solutions to problems faced by people in Madhesh. The ‘ideological stance’, MJF chairman is indicating is none other than its alliance with the Maoists which the MJF thinks has a better strategy to win the hearts of people in the Terai than NC and UML. ..... The NC and UML’s unofficial proposal to make Madhav Kumar Nepal, the new Prime Minister of Nepal is not likely to materialise simply because of inadequate support on their side. Given the circumstances, MJF chairman Upendra Yadav looks like the most probable candidate to lead the government. The strongest reason behind this is the latent support of the powerful players, Yadav has behind him. ...... speculation is that Indian establishment, which has undeclared but strong influences in the formation and dissolution of governments in Nepal, is also likely to support Yadav as the future Prime Minister House session obstructed, postponed for Sunday India stresses on consensus to end ongoing crisis in Nepal, denies hand in toppling Maoist-led govt
Yadav stresses for consensus among political parties Chairman of the Madhesi Janaadhikar Forum Upendra Yadav has called for consensus and cooperation among all political parties while forming the new government to give a way out of the current turmoil. Talking to media persons upon his arrival at the Tribhuvan International Airport, Yadav said his party is not in a position to claim the leadership of new government. Yadav said his party will make efforts to build consensus among the parties, adding that his party will support whoever can gather majority to form government. MJF has called its parliamentary party meeting after Yadav’s arrival. The party is also scheduled to hold talks with other Terai based parties – Terai Madhes Loktantrik Party and Sadbhawana Party to bring out a common voice on Terai issues. President Yadav's fate to be similar to Gyanendra if he doesn't rectify his move: Bhattarai He also claimed that there is less possibility of the new government being formed anytime soon because the Maoists have already intensified their street protest and struggle in the parliament against the President's move.
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