Art Of War, Art Of Peace

The Maoists waged a decade long war. They started from scratch, from nothing, and they spread all over the country. They have lost thousands of cadres. The whole thing could not have been easy. There was a time when it was thought they will not attack the state army, that would be too much for them. But they managed to bring the RNA to a military stalemate.

That was the art of war.

Used to be the Maoists were for a communist republic. Now they have made an ideological transformation. They need to make that official.

To: Dr. Baburam Bhattarai

They need to formalize that ideological transformation.

They have proved themselves at the art of war. The unilateral ceasefire was their most brilliant military move ever. It was so brilliant the king was pushed to an unimagined global isolation.

Now the challenge for the Maoists is if they can prove themselves equally deft at peace.

Would they consider a unilateral disarmament in exchange for a common minimum program of a Democratic Republic by the seven parties?

These could be the steps.

1. The Maoists tell the seven parties they will take the next step beyond the unilateral ceasefire. They will unilaterally disarm in exchange for a joint alliance.
2. Then a formal eight party alliance will be formed. It will formally elect a leader.
   
3. It will chalk out a program. A democratic republic would be at the core. I have suggested a 10 point program: Alliance Of Steel. I believe you need something as comprehensive to really get the masses riled up.
   
4. Then you put forth joint protest programs. Parties do not put out separate programs.
   

As long as the seven party alliance would be willing to agree to 2,3 and 4, the Maoists should be able to do 1.

Think about it. The Maoists are going to disarm anyways. The whole idea of seeking UN mediation is to suggest they will disarm. So if you are willing to do it anyways, and if the UN option is not forthcoming, thanks to the king, why will you not do it on your own and speed things up? You are republicans, why do you so insist on the king having veto power?

And forget integrating the two armies. Fight for 27 million Nepalis, not 10,000 armed cadres. Liberation of 27 million people is more important than job security of 10,000 of your armed cadres. Let them all put down their weapons, and dedicate themselves to a peaceful achievement of a democratic republic. Especially now when the peaceful option is more effective.

If laying down your arms means a democratic republic will be achieved faster, why will you insist on keeping the arms and slowing things down? Speed things up. Lay down your arms permanently.

Instead of slowing things down, bargain hard with the parties on points 1,2,3,4.

Make them come around to 2,3 and 4 first. Then you come around to 1.

How can the parties trust you did 1? Invite them to monitor it. Invite the civil society to monitor it.

There is immense time pressure. If this regime is still in power on February 8, the seven party alliance and the Maoists are going to be locked in tough corners.

And send Girija this way. I will take him on a tour of 50 states myself. For five months.

Badri Mandal: Winner

The King's February 2006, April 2007 Offensive

The seven party alliance will not be an alliance.

It will not do what it takes to launch a revolution.

It will not do what it takes to launch a movement.

Which leaves room for a negotiated settlement. But that asks for dialogue.

But if the Monarchists act unreasonable, forging an alliance with the Maoists is an option. But that also asks for dialogue.

Dialogue is political work.

The Maoists will not do what it takes to for forge a strong alliance with the democrats.

They continue to think of another military offensive as an option. And if they prepare for that, that weakens the possibilities of an alliance with the democrats. And if they can not forge an alliance with the democrats, what are their chances for a soft landing?

So the Maoist-democrat alliance is nowhere close to gelling.

The seven party alliance is in disarray.

Girija's House revival stance is the litmus test. As long as he still holds that position, the seven party alliance will continue to be in disarray.

The February 2006 elections for the towns and cities that the king has announced, and the April 2007 parliamentary polls. That is a political challege to the seven parties, and a military challenge to the Maoists.

Hopefully the Maoists have weakened. But if they have not, and there is no telling, and even if they make bungled attempts at disruption, that will still be bloodshed that could have been avoided. And if there is bloodshed, there will be a new gap of trust between the Maoists and the democrats.

But the election announcements might gradually erode some of the international support for the democrats. They have wasted too much time so far this year. They let months pass.

Especially if international observers are allowed - first they said they will be allowed, then Tulsi Giri came out saying they will not be allowed - then the parties are going to come under additional pressure.

And Girija is going to keep parroting the House revival mantra.

And Badri Mandal's Sadbhavana and Pashupati Rana's RPP are going to contest elections. And they are going to win 30 mayoral seats each roughly.

Gajendra Narayan Singh could not have seen this coming.

Considering the parties have been allowed to function more or less at normal, there is no outright persecution, the parties will face additional pressure.

All because there is this refusal to do political homework.

Genius Girija.

If the king could revive the House, that would make null and void the Prime Minister's prerogative to dissolve the House. That would go against the norms of a parliamentary democracy.

The democrats were trapped between the Monarchists and the Maoists, now they are trapped between February 2006 and April 2007 also.

Does the seven party alliance ever hold meetings?

Needed: a goal and an action plan.

Or maybe there is an Article 127 in the Nepali Congress constitution that we could use to revive the House, and Girija would be happy, and the rest of us could move on.