Four Poles: One PM, Three DPMs

Baburam Bhattarai is an obvious name. He is the sitting Prime Minister. Even Dahal proposing the Mahantha Thakur name does not change the fact that this is one pole, the leading pole.

Sushil Koirala is the candidate for the NC, the UML and the monarchist parties. This is the second pole, though not the second biggest.

The Fourth Pole
Upendra Yadav: Fourth Pole?

Ram Bahadur Thapa Badal's name has been proposed. This is the third pole. This is composed of the far left parties.

Upendra Yadav's name has also been proposed. This is the fourth pole. My guess is this is the second largest pole in the country right now. But it will be for the elections to prove. I think this alliance will produce more than one Chief Minister down the line.

A compromise position would be for Baburam Bhattarai to be Prime Minister, and for Upendra Yadav, Sushil Koirala and Ram Bahadur Thapa to be Deputy Prime Ministers. The UML could get Home, Sharad Singh Bhandari could get defense, and Baidya could lead Finance.

No time for squabble
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Upendra Yadav's Options

Prachanda's Mistake

• The issue has not been if Katuwal is a good guy or a bad guy. (Gurung Not Katawal For Army Chief August 2006)
  
• The issue has not been if he should be sacked.
  
• Prachanda messed up on the procedure.
• He had to get all his coalition partners to agree. He did not do that.
  
• After all his coalition partners had agreed, he needed to send his decision to the president. He bypassed the president. He messed up again.
  
• The president then would have had the option to send the decision back to the cabinet for reconsideration.
  
• The cabinet would have had the option then to send it back to the president. At that point the president would have had no option but to send the decision to the army chief.
  
• Thereby the Army Chief would have been duly sacked.
  

Prachanda's Continued Mistake

• Then prime minister Prachanda did what he did.
  
• The president did what he did.
• The president's decision has been challenged in court.
  
• The parliament, Prachanda and Madhav Nepal should give the court space.
  
• Rule of law asks for that.
  

The Court's Mistake

• The Supreme Court needed to decide right away if the president's move was unconstitutional or not as alleged.
  
• My understanding is the president's move was legitimate. It was the prime minister who bypassed due process in two major ways.
  
• But it is for the Supreme Court to make that announcement.
  

Madhav Nepal's Mistakes

• Madhav Nepal waited for his own party to decide which members of the UML will participate in the government. He extended that same courtesy to the Nepali Congress, to the TMLP, and the SP. Because that is how it gets done in parliamentary democracy.
  
• But he went ahead and appointed Bijay Gachhedar to his cabinet without waiting for the MJF to officially send a list of people to join the cabinet. The MJF had already decided to participate in the government with both Yadav and Gachhedar holding major cabinet portfolios.
  
• What Madhav Nepal did was against the basic norms of parliamentary democracy.
  
• Madhav Nepal has proven there is as much danger to democracy in the country from Madhav Nepal as there might be from Prachanda.
  
• Madhav Nepal made another big mistake.
  
• He withdrew Prachanda's decision to sack Katuwal. That decision by Prachanda was under due consideration by the Supreme Court. A Prime Minister can not thus overrule the Supreme Court. It has been for the Supreme Court to decide on Prachanda's decision.
  

The Current Coalition's Big Political Mistakes

• To promote the army guy who was behind Dhoramba has been a major political mistake. (Militarists, Maoists, Monotones, Dorambaites, Naxalites October 2005)
• It feels like the regressives have taken over power in Nepal.

Upendra Yadav's Options

• Perhaps Upendra Yadav's original sin was to bring into the MJF the corrupt Congress faces like Bijay Gachhedar and Sharad Singh Bhandari.
  
• Or his second mistake was to not himself have become the parliamentary party leader after the April 2008 election.
  
• His continued mistake might have been that his leadership style has not been as consultative as it should be. (The MJF Must Stay Intact, Putting The MJF Fire Out, MJF: Is Reconciliation Possible?, The MJF Drama)
• Whether by naked Indian embassy intervention (and the Pahadis think Madhesis are Indians!) or by simply buying out MPs and central committee members or by happily playing into the hands of the Pahadi ruling class or all of the above, Bijay Gachhedar has proven he is capable of bringing about a vertical split in the MJF.
• It is for Upendra Yadav to decide if it makes sense to seek reconciliation with Gachhedar or to go his separate way.
  
• At this juncture to seek reconciliation would be to say, okay Jhala Nath Khanal is UML president, but he is not in the cabinet, Girija is NC president, but he is not in the cabinet, neither Mahanth Thakur nor Hridayesh Tripathy are in the cabinet. And so Upendra Yadav is also going to stay out of the cabinet for now and instead seek party unity.
  
• This might be Upendra Yadav's best option. He should lose this small battle to later win the war.
• After reunifying the party then Upendra Yadav should work with Prachanda for the formation of an all party national unity government and bring it about in a few months' time.
  
• In politics six months are a long, long time.
  
• Keeping the party intact at any cost might be Upendra Yadav's best option at this point.
  

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MJF: No Harm Done

Upendra Yadav Should Be Leading The MJF Team In The New Government

Image by AFP/Getty Images via Daylife

• Bijay Gachhedar's minor rebellion to support the UML-NC coalition was the correct one. He read the mood in the party and the country correctly.
  
• Upendra Yadav's decision to claim leadership of the next government was a bold, smart move. But as soon as it became clear the Maoists were not serious with their offer, he should have realized it was time to backtrack.
• It was never a mistake to bring Jay Prakash Gupta, Bijay Gachhedar and Sharad Singh Bhandari into the MJF. Jay Prakash Gupta is one of the founders of the MJF. He could very well succeed Upendra Yadav down the line. Upendra Yadav, Bijay Gachhedar and Sharad Singh Bhandari all represent major population constituencies in the Terai, the Yadavs, the Tharus, and the Pahadi origin Teraiwasis. The MJF grew by eating into the Nepali Congress' vote bank in the Terai. The MJF did what the TMDP tried to do but did not do as well, which was to attract Congress leaders, cadres and voters.
  
• It was a mistake to ever have elected Bijay Gachhedar the parliamentary party leader. The party president should have kept that for himself.
• Now the best thing is for the MJF central committee to decide to (1) join the new government full force with maximum participation, and (2) get Upendra Yadav to lead the MJF in the new government. He lead the MJF in the last governemnt as well, he had the most plum ministry. He should continue as Foreign Minister, or get Home if that is an option.
  
• Upendra Yadav gets to become Prime Minister after the elections next year, not now. Right now is Madhav Nepal's turn.
  
• It is not for the UML, NC, TMDP and the SP to decide who will lead the MJF in the new government. If they try, this government will last six months max.
• Upendra Yadav should stop acting like not joining this new government is still an option.
  

In The News

Big four to invite Gachchhadar into govt Republica Four major political parties have decided to accept the decision of the parliamentary party of the Madhesi People´s Rights Forum (MPRF) to join the new government. At a meeting of the Nepali Congress (NC), Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist), Tarai Madhes Democratic Party (TMDP) and Sadbhabana Party held at Prime Minister Madhav Kumar Nepal´s private residence at Koteshwor Friday morning, the four parties decided to invite MPRF leaders into the new coalition government. ...... a majority of members in the MPRF central committee are against joining the new government. ...... the four parties took the decision to show a common understanding of the major coalition parties regarding the dispute within MPRF. ...... The parties took the decision hours before a MPRF central committee meeting was scheduled. ...... The four parties´ accepting the MPRF parliamentary party decision is intended to press the party´s central committee meeting not to take any move against it.

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