Streets Filling Up

This is great. The first day of the movement has been heartening. Just when things are heating up in Bihar as well.

I have also noted with interest Manisha Koirala's father's ouster from the Congress. The guy apparently gave an interview suggesting there is nothing in the 1990 constitution that allows for a reinstatement of the parliament, which apparently happens also to be my line. Forget the 1999 parliament, and forget the 1990 constitution.

There are three camps. If you are not for the king's move of 2/1, you are against peace and for terrorism, the Monarchists will tell you. If you are not for reviving the parliament, you are against democracy, the democrats will tell you. If you are not with Prachanda, you are against the Maoist party, the Maoists tell the Maoists like Baburam.

These hardliner stands are great for group cohesion in the three camps, but they are a major disservice to the cause of peace. All three camps will have to soften if peace is to be possible.

And if the Gulf News story reported in the Telegraph is to be believed, Baburam is back go doing business on behalf of his party. That is great news. Baburam is back in the swing. The guy is a progressive more than he is a textbook Maoist. He is capable of having a moderating influence on the Maoists without selling away the basic progressive thrust of the party. He is reasonable. It is possible to talk to him.

The letter by the three human rights organizations to Prachanda is meaningful. Human rights monitoring, to which both the army and the Maoists have agreed to, is the only and best hope to end the conflict on the table for now. That option has to be exploited to the fullest.

In The News

• Bihar Assembly dissolved Times of India
• Despite cold vibes, Indian diplomat on way to Nepal Indian Express, India
• No end in sight to Nepal's woes Bangkok Post .....the country has far from regained the normalcy King Gyanendra promised to bring within 100 days ..... Gyanendra had ``achieved a fantastic way of exercising control over almost every aspect of life'' ..... 1,516 individuals are still detained. Among the most prominent is Sher Bahadur Deuba ...... Other prominent detainees include student leader Gagan Thapa and former minister J P Gupta, who were re-arrested on May 5....... the problem ultimately has to be solved by the Nepalese ..... the crisis is an opportunity for the Nepalese people to come out and say what they want
  
• Opposition protests around Nepal BBC News Protesters want the reinstatement of the dissolved parliament and the formation of an all-party government...... Biratnagar, Janakpur and Pokhara...... The opposition parties argue that an all-party government would create an environment for holding peace negotiations with the Maoist insurgents..... opposition leaders say restoration of peace is not possible unless people's democratic rights are restored first.
  
• More than 10,000 rally in Nepal's capital; largest anti-king rally ... Santa Fe New Mexican
• Manisha’s royalist father gets party boot Calcutta Telegraph Prakash Koirala was today expelled from the Nepali Congress for toeing the royalist line ..... the party was founded by Prakash’s father B.P. Koirala and is now headed by his uncle and three-time Prime Minister, Girija Prasad Koirala ...... the toughest action taken by the party against a senior leader after the expulsion of former Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba on May 26 2002 ...... forced to act after Prakash gave an interview to the English daily The Himalayan Times yesterday opposing the party’s demand for reinstatement of the House of Representatives. He argued that such a move would be against the spirit of the constitution and suggested a round table conference to discuss the issue ...... He also said that since the Supreme Court has quashed a writ challenging the dissolution of the House of Representatives, there was no point in pursuing the idea any further...... a member of the Central Working Committee
  
• Nepal's army gears up to better rights record:- Webindia123, India Dogged by allegations of human rights violations and the spectre of a permanent embargo on foreign military aid, Nepal's army has announced a clutch of "positive steps" ..... welcomed the setting up of a monitoring office in the capital by the UN Office of High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) and was ready to provide access to detention sites ...... "We also hope they would show up the human rights abuses committed by the Maoist insurgents and help push them towards peace talks"...... Besides the UN agency, it said its detention sites were also open to the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) as well as Nepal's National Human Rights Commission...... the army said it would have a national central registry of detainees to keep track of people under arrest...... The army's home page on the Internet has a human rights section through which complaints can also be made anonymously...... the RNA said tainted soldiers will not be sent to UN missions.
• Maoists say Prachanda tape is 'propaganda':- Webindia123 ..... the rebels issued a statement that described the tape's contents as "witless propaganda". ..... Prachanda issued a statement Sunday, admitting it was his voice on the tape but clarifying it was an earlier tape and not relevant to the current times.
  
• Nepal Army plays tape saying India in league with Nepal Maoists Newindpress
• Nepal Democracy Movement: A scene from the rally. Pic by Chandra ... United We Blog, Nepal .....In an encouraging beginning of Jana Andolan 2062, at least five thousand pro-democracy activists rallied in heart of Kathmandu demanding restoration of democracy and civil liberties in Nepal. Activists from all seven political parties of the recently launched United Front ..... Riot police were stationed on all the corners- on way to Dillibazzar, on way to Ghanta Ghar, on way to Baghbazzar and on way to Jay Nepal Hall....... In front of Democracy Wall in Baghbazzar, a truck full of riot police was parked. Police were moving around....... A big truck and at least 50 police were standing at the Bhotahitti Chowk...... Being in the rally is always a strange experience for me. I mean you feel aroused, energized. Blood starts circulating fast...... all most all participants of the rally were hard core political activists...... Did that mean the rally had no public support? ...... “Well, they definitely don’t have public support,” shop keeper Prabin Tuladhar, 35, told me...... “The rally is not different to that of 2046,” he told me, “people didn’t come in the beginning at that time too. I think the momentum will gain momentum in the days to come.” ..... Yogesh Upadhaya of CPN UML was on the microphone. He spoke of the need of unity among democratic forces and continue fighting for full democracy. Then spoke Hari Bol Bhattarai, a NC leader. “The King should be constitutional. Parliament should be restored. People should rule over themselves.” ...... KP Oli, a CPN UML heavyweight walking in Ason Chowk talking with someone over the cell phone.
• Democracy protests in four Nepali cities CBC Kathmandu, Biratnagar, Janakpur and Pokhara ..... the political parties have demanded the monarch reinstate the dissolved parliament to allow a multiparty government to negotiate a political settlement with the insurgents...... more than 10,000 protesters gathered at Asan..... Hundreds of police in riot gear were posted around the market, but did not intervene...... future rallies, including one planned for Friday, would be bigger ..... The king lifted the emergency at the end of April and rallies are now allowed
• Prachanda's Statement INSN
  
• Delhi Sniffs King's Ploy Telegraph ...a report in Gulf News that some key Maoist leaders, including Baburam Bhattarai, held meetings with CPI leader A.B. Bardhan and his CPM counterpart Prakash Karat recently ..... the army, prompted by the king, was “trying to play hardball” ..... Neither the king nor his close aides took the Indian statement lightly. The palace, unhappy with critical reports that have appeared in the Indian media in the past few weeks, feels these reflect the view of the government.
• Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International, International Commission of Jurists Write To Prachanda INSN .....an ongoing wave of human rights abuses by Maoist forces over the last few months casts serious doubts on the credibility of your repeated public commitments to that effect..... in a press release of 5 April 2005 the CPN (Maoist) publicly called for an international human rights monitoring presence in Nepal ...... the CPN (Maoist) also pledged to cooperate fully with any such mission, if established, and to be answerable for any human rights abuses by CPN (Maoist). On 12 April, you personally reiterated the pledge to fully support and cooperate with any human rights monitors ..... On 16 May 2005, Shanker Sarki, a soldier, who had returned home from Congo where he had served in the United Nations Peacekeeping Forces, was abducted from his home in Dhangadi, Kailali district by 12 armed Maoist cadres in civilian dress and killed...... Specifically, we call on to publicly to prohibit CPN (Maoist) forces from engaging in targeting civilians and civilian objects and carrying out indiscriminate attacks, arbitrary killings, torture and other ill-treatment, taking hostages and recruiting child soldiers. We also call on you to remove from their post any CPN (Maoist) cadres who are responsible for human rights abuses....... With reference to your interview of 18 April, we remind you that the civil war in Nepal falls under the purview of international humanitarian law. Among the fundamental protections during internal armed conflicts are those contained in Common Article Three in the four Geneva Conventions of 1949, regarding the treatment of persons taking no active part in the hostilities. This article prohibits, among other things, summary executions, torture and other ill-treatment, the taking of hostages, and punishment without fair trial. Credible information indicates that CPN (Maoist) forces routinely violate Common Article Three by engaging in brutal and abusive activities against civilians and others not taking active part in hostilities....... Common Article Three binds both states parties and insurgent groups. Adherence is not based on reciprocity ...... arguments set out in the interview published on 18 April that RNA abuses “outnumber” abuses by your forces or that your ideology justifies your actions in no way exempt you and your forces from your obligations under international law....... mechanisms to allow transparent and independent investigations by the UN teams in areas under (CPN) Maoist control ...... each side is responsible for the conduct of its own forces
  
• India Should Talk To Maoists: Gen. Mehta Nepalnews.com it is true that India is trying to talk to (Nepali) Maoists ..... Speaking in Nepali language ..... “As India is holding dialogue with Nepali (parliamentary) parties, there should be no problem in holding dialogue with the Maoists” ..... even from the point of view of `balance of power’ (within Nepal) it was important that the Maoists army did not disintegrate...... Indian authorities have been saying, of late, that Maoist problem has emerged as the no. 1 internal security problem in the country.

Democratic Solidarity With The Nepali Congress

In my last blog entry, I have explored the possibility of a democratic coalition minus the Nepali Congress. I will have to revise that. If the NC chooses to stand by its demand to revive the parliament, it has every democratic right to do so. Instead the NC cadres should be used to create pressure to compromise with the king on the idea of an interim government, which is what I have stated in an earlier blog entry.

And I still think the RPP, RJP, and the Mandal Sadbhavana should be invited in. All three are for constitutional monarchy and multi-party democracy. The last time major protests were launched, Deuba's Congress was kept at bay because Girija said so. Guess what, the king was able to exploit that split. This time the king is being given an opportunity to tap on someone like Surya Bahadur Thapa. Better to have Thapa in your democratic camp. Thapa is the civilian version of King G: he is cunning as hell. Can't afford to have him at large.

In The News

• Nepal displeasure to India, Britain on opposition alliance issue Xinhua, China On May 16, the Indian government and European Union had separately welcomed the forging of alliance among seven opposition parties in Nepal.
• Nepal expresses "concern" to India over statement alliance Outlook (subscription) the common position announced by the parties, who represent over 90 percent of dissolved parliament........ The seven party alliance has announced fresh stir beginning May 22 to restore democracy and fundamental rights urging King Gyanendra to reinstate the Parliament and form an all party government.
  
• Nepal warns parties against anti-king slogans Reuters AlertNet, UK Nepal's royalist government told political parties on Saturday it would not tolerate public criticism of King Gyanendra during pro-democracy protests........ After widespread condemnation, the king lifted emergency rule but he continues to hold unlimited power, many political leaders are still in jails and civil liberties remain suspended........ Earlier this month, Nepal's Maoist rebels said they supported the political parties in their campaign to restore democracy....... The government said the Maoist rebels might infiltrate the rallies and the political parties would be held responsible for any "untoward incidents" during the protests.
• Nepal Army plays tape saying India in league with Nepal Maoists Newindpress, India the Royal Nepal Army raised a new roadblock by making public video tapes it said suggest New Delhi's links with the Nepal Maoist faction led by Baburam Bhattarai......... ‘‘India was clearly suggesting that the two leaders would be released only after their man Dr Bhattarai was reinstated in his earlier posts,'' Prachanda said....... Bhattarai was head of the ‘People's Government' and later of the western regional command of the Maoists....... Prachanda claimed that ‘‘we received a message from the Indian authorities for a dialogue, but we said we would welcome them in our territory with full guarantee of their safety and security.''...... Hours after the RNA released the tapes, the Indian Embassy in Kathmandu issued a statement, denying Prachanda's claims about the Government of India. It also questioned the authenticity of the audio-visual tapes played by the RNA....... New Delhi has already sent a batch of thermal imagers. Radio sets, jeeps and trucks will be sent in the coming weeks. India has also agreed to service some of the Insas rifles being used by the RNA. The RNA act of releasing the tapes has stumped New Delhi........ $40 million package for RNA includes training at the Counter Insurgency and Jungle Warfare school. Supply of Cheetah helicopters, Insas rifles and sophisticated surveillance equipment.......Senior Maoist leaders like C P Gajurel and Mohan Baidya arrested in India and still in custody.
• Resume arms supply, Nepal urges India Hindu Nepal said it was short of bullets for 5.56 and 7.62-bore weapons and would have to dig into its final reserves if India did not start replenishing its stocks.... the 32,000-strong "first-line" troops of the Royal Nepal Army need at least 65 lakh rounds of ammunition for its two main types of standard issue weapons.
  
• Nepal on its knees for arms Calcutta Telegraph Royal Nepal Army (RNA) is now delving into its reserves of ammunition for its standard issue India-supplied INSAS 5.56-mm and 7.62-mm combat weapons. The stock of ammunition for these guns could run “dangerously low” in less than a month....... The Maoists have declared that their armed insurgency has entered a phase of “strategic offensive”. Consequently, military authorities expect the Maoists to attack RNA establishments. Given the RNA’s level of training, the usage of ammunition is high....... The RNA has two battalions of special forces equipped with American and Belgian guns but the Indian Small Arms System (INSAS) 5.56 mm and the old 7.62 mm self loading rifle (that is being phased out from the Indian Army) are its primary weapons....... The RNA, which is in the middle of an expansion programme, also needs more INSAS rifles, mine-protection vehicles, field guns and bulletproof jackets.
  
• Nepal foreign secy raps Indian envoy Times of India India's envoy here sought Nepal's support for his country's bid to become a permanent member of the UN Security Council, but a top Nepalese official used the occasion to blast New Delhi......... "Development of multi-party democracy must be an essential part of any acceptable and sustainable resolution of the conflict," the EU said.
  
• Nepal rights official chooses 'self-exile' in Delhi:- Webindia123, India
• Nepal tightens grip on media, new law passed Deccan Herald, India Tightening its grip on the media despite lifting of emergency, Nepal's Royal government has passed strict laws aimed at curbing press freedom, prohibiting any news item that causes "hatred or disrespect" against King Gyanendra and his family members..... the government's intention to "totally control free press and to convert it into government's propaganda machinery."....... The law, which is yet to be made public, prohibits publishing any item that "causes hatred or disrespect against the King and his family members." It bans publishing items that promote or help terrorists, terrorism and destructive activities and prohibits broadcasting news-based programmes by private FM radio stations, besides restricting license to a single individual to operate only two options out of radio, television and newspaper.
• Nepal to support Egypt for Security Council permanent membership Xinhua, China
• UML Democracy Bulletin 10 INSN
• Press Release By Six Parties After Meeting Natwar Singh INSN .....delegation handed him over a copy of their consensual road map for restoration of full democracy and peace in Nepal. Mr. Singh was happy and expressed full support to the proposed road map. The meeting lasted for more than 45 minutes in a happy and relaxed ambiance. ....... delegates reminded Mr. Singh of 1951 commitment of then Prime Minister of Jawahar Lal Nehru for the elections of the sovereign constituent assembly. Such an election for a constituent assembly has to be preceded by restoration of the dissolved House of Representatives. The HoR will set up a national government competent to hold peace talk with the Maoists. The delegates assured the Minister that such peace talk could be held meaningfully and peace would be restored in Nepal along with a fundamental restructuring of the nation state of Nepal......... The Minister reiterated his faith and trust in the capabilities of political parties. He asked them to be in touch on permanent basis. He expressed happiness at the unity of political parties........ Pradi Giri – Nepali Congress (D), Rajan Bhattarai – CPN (UML), Dr. Shekhar Koirala and Mathura Prasad Ghimire – Nepali Congress, Hridayesh Tripathi and Rajendra Mahto – Nepal Sadbhawana Party (A), Chandra Dev Joshi – United Left Front, Ganga Paudel – People’s Front
• Gorkhapatra's Creative Journalism INSN “The bringing of 100 to 150 Nepalese to Washington yesterday wasn’t merely a shameful act, but also severely to be condemned. In a democracy, people are allowed to criticize. But to denounce one’s nationality and the head of one’s state is not a democratic value.” ....... “Former prime minister Girija Prasad Koirala’s daughter Sujata Jost spent thousands of dollars to spread rumors about Nepal. At yesterday’s demonstration, she spent $50 a head to bring each person there, and because Sunday was a holiday, there were a few Nepali laborers present” ......“Those who bankrupted the nation by committing corruption through the Lauda, Dhamija, and Chase Air scandals, and those who helped the corrupt people in high positions, are trying to reincarnate. But nobody is ready to believe these corrupt people.”
• Musharraf gives tacit backing to Nepal King's power grab Outlook (subscription), India Musharraf has said the monarch's action should be seen in the light of failure of the previous governments to contain the Maoists' "menace." ..... The General said he has good relations with the King ...... he believed that systems should change if they failed to resolve problems faced by the country....... "Nation is not made for democracy, democracy is made for the nation. If the nation is suffering, something has to be done" ..... Chamberline and Nepolean were responsible for establishing democracies in Britain and France
• 50 Maoists killed in Nepal clashes Daily Times ... the rebels said only six guerrillas were killed in the fighting, including their eastern area commander.
  

Absolute/Relative Power And Money

Say you are an absolute monarch of a country of 10 million people with a GDP of $500 million, drawing an annual salary of $100,000 a year. Or you are a truly constitutional monarch, totally devoid of political power, widely respected, perhaps more popular than any other person in the country, of a country that influences 2 billion people, and has a thriving GDP of $50 billion, with you drawing a salary of $500,000 a year or more, with a host of businesses of global scales in a thriving economy. Which would you prefer? I would go for the second option.

If I am worth $10, and you are worth $5, I am twice as rich as you. But if you are worth $10 and I am worth $15, I am no longer twice as rich as you, but I am richer than I was before. Which option would you rather go for? I would go for the $15 option.

A truly constitutional monarchy is the $15 option for the king. Saying good-bye to the idea of reviving the parliament and the 1990 constitution in favor of an interim government and a new, progressive constitution is the $15 option for the Bahuns.

I have been roundly criticized for my near euphoric reaction to the king's lifting the emergency at the end of April. Now I am supposed be either a Monarchist, or a naive fool who could not see the king's cunning. After all, restrictions on fundamental rights are still in place, and countless Bahuns are still in detention.

Am I a Monarchist? I am for peace. If getting rid of the monarchy will bring peace, I am for getting rid of the monarchy. If retaining it will bring peace, I am for retaining it. But the issue of the monarchy is for the 27 million Nepalis to decide, not for me or for Girija or Prachanda. And the last nationwide polls show a clear majority of the people are for a constitutional monarchy, and so that is my officially stated line. If the people want to keep the monarchy, the Maoists may not take it away from them. The people are the source of power, not any guns.

Am I naive? If the king thought lifting the emergency but keeping the ordinances that curb freedoms would fool anyone, least of all the foreign powers, then he was the one being naive. But I don't see that to be the case. He meant to take a limited step in the positive direction, and he did not expect to be seen as doing anything more.

My biggest fear after 2/1 was that the Panchayat might get revived. But the lifting of the emergency tells me that is not in the cards. The king might be stretching the 1990 constitution, but he is at least paying lip service to it. He is trying to stay to the letter of the document, if not the spirit of it. And to me that is reason enough to be euphoric.

If you can not tell the difference between when an emergency has been imposed and when it gets lifted, that makes you politically blind. Can you tell the difference between evening and night? True, there are administrative ordinances that severely curb freedom, but ordinances are a very weak version of all that is possible during an emergency.

The thing about the emergency getting lifted is suddenly there is all this political space that the parties have to come up with a creative solution to the civil war. This space did not exist during the emergency. Can you tell the difference?

What worries me is if the law and order breakdown were to get worse, the country might yet see something worse than an emergency. Have you thought of martial law? Of direct military rule? Those are options the king continues to have. This is not me trying to scare the parties. I am not saying such a move would be justified, and I am sure not going to support such a move, quite the opposite. This is me being realistic in terms of what I see when I look at the political landscape.

Does that mean the parties need to give in to the king's wishes, the wishes of the army top brass? No. Not at all. But it is important for the parties to come clean on the question of the monarchy.

If the seven parties are for a republican set-up, they should go ahead and come clean on it. On the other hand, if they are for a Constitutional Monarchy, they should be able to offer an iron clad guarantee that the monarchy is here to stay.

But instead the parties have been monkeying around with murky waters.

Not even a Bishnu avatar can revive a parliament that does not exist. To look for a parliament that took shape in 1999 and hence expired in 2003 is like looking for me in the year 2120: I do not expect to be around and kicking in the year 2120. I expect to have died by then. So if you want to see me, come talk to me now, or 10 years from now. Don't look for me in 2120: you might end up frustrated.

But say the parliament gets magically revived. Then the Congress-UML could amend the constitution to make Girija or MaKuNe Commander-In-Chief. And they could strike up a compromise with the Maoists to go for a Constituent Assembly. And that Assembly could end up getting rid of the monarchy, not necessarily because public opinion might have turned against the monarchy so completely, but because about a dozen politicians are still mad at all the Nepal Television programs they were forced to watch during their house arrests.

When you are presenting that scenario to the king, you are cornering him. If you intend to corner him, and you corner him, that can be a sound political strategy. But if you end up cornering him according to the law of unintended consequences, chances are your mind is not in top shape to help the country out during its current difficult time.

Good chess players always think more than a few steps ahead. But the current strategy of the seven parties is about thinking only one step at a time. So the first step is to revive the parliament. And if this first step does not happen, items 2,3 and 4 on the agenda never see the light of day. Good luck.

By the way, according to that same poll, only a very small portion of the Nepali people are for the following: (1) absolute monarchy, (2) communist dictatorship, or (3) revived parliament.

Instead, why not listen to the people! Imagine a referendum was held on the issue of reviving the parliament. Guess what, the results are out. The idea of reviving the dufunct parliament lost handily. So get over it.

Instead think ahead a few steps like a good chess player. Instead of asking the king to revive the unrevivable parliament, press for an interim government. Put forth a finished list of names now.
If there were a Constituent Assembly, these same political leaders would be the ones chalking up a new constitution. Well, what prevents them from engaging in that exercise now?

And so I urge the seven parties in the coalition and the three or four that have unwisely been kept at bay to come around to my more sensible proposal.

I feel so strongly against the idea of reviving the parliament, I think serious thought needs to be given to forming a democratic coalition minus the Nepali Congress of Girija Koirala. I mean, who are these Bahuns trying to fool? They want to go back to the 1990 constitution so Bahun hegemony may continue.

In The News

• Nepal rebels bomb restaurant, ransack radio station Reuters AlertNet, UK The restaurant was almost empty at the time of the blast in Pokhara
• Nepal king faces growing revolution Workers World Armed action continues against government dissenters. Military units and armed police continue to be mobilized against protesters and opposition party leaders. The offices of the youth wing of the legally recognized United Marxist-Leninist Party continue to be forcibly occupied and the Royal Army recently fired on crowds of student protesters. Additionally, high-level officials from the parliamentary parties remain under indefinite detention and there is continued police harassment of the king’s political opponents..... She also spoke highly of Gyanendra’s decision to rescind the emer gency declaration ...... On May 10 several hundred Maoist revolutionaries launched simultaneous armed attacks on three joint security bases at Bandipur, Chorhawa and Mirchaiya. All three bases are along the east-west highway that links the rest of the country to the capital of Katmandu. ...... The CPN(M) and its affiliated organizations appear to be operating at full capacity, despite months of state terrorism.
  
• Nepal Army claims not yet received any military aid from India Outlook (subscription), India .....acknowledging that the Army was fighting the war on terror with limited resources....... The guerrillas are in a "defeated mentality" so they can become more destructive and intensify acts of terror in the days to come..... in the past three months, 556 rebels were killed, 375 surrendered and 119 weapons recovered...... In the past few years, the Royal Army investigated into 41 cases of abuses and sentenced 45 soldiers to jail terms ranging from six months to seven years...... The Army has sacked 32 soldiers, demoted 12, stopped grade to four and promotion to nine, and issued warning to eight........ Gurung played an audio tape containing the purported voice of Maoist chief Prachanda in which he alleged that India was supposed to release two of the central members of the rebels -- C P Gajurel and Mohan Vaidya -- from its jails........ But, the taped voice claimed, that India later asked the Maoists to withdraw action against their number two leader Baburam Bhattarai, who was sacked from all top posts except ordinary membership of the party for allegedly being a pro-Indian, before it releases Gajurel and Vaidya.
• Prince shapes up for crown Calcutta Telegraph Paras, the enfant terrible of Nepal and the first in the line of succession to the throne, seems to be turning over a new leaf...... it’s King Gyanendra himself who is supervising the makeover of his 33-year-old son..... He sent out personal invitations through the Royal Nepal Army to four top diplomats posted in the capital, including Indian ambassador Shiv Shankar Mukherjee and American envoy James Francis Moriarty, for a round of golf...... the diplomats were “pleasantly surprised” when they were received by an “extremely gracious and suave” Paras on the Tribhuvan Army Golf Course at the crack of dawn on Saturday....... The normally reticent royal was in a talkative mood during the game, the sources said, showering attention on Moriarty and discussing everything from the weather to golf swings with him...... the prince, who hit the longest drive among all the players, failed to match Moriarty’s expertise, losing narrowly to him....... prince did show glimpses of that fiery temper during the weekend game with the diplomats, especially when he hit a wayward stroke or missed an easy putt
• The pen that writes off a king Indian Express There is no condom for the pen, as Khushwant Singh has often said, but Gyanendra sought to invent one through the barrel of the gun...... The government is trying to stem the flood of journalists rebelling against the royal diktat by stopping government ads in those publishing houses that do not toe the government’s line.
• Insurgency in Nepal can be controlled within a year: general Xinhua, China General Satchit Shumsher Rana ...... General Rana said the differences and even in-fighting within the top leadership of the guerrillas have resulted in the lowering of morale among their cadres..... Rana said if the strength of the RNAis raised to 125,000 from the present 100,000 and "if foreign forces do not aid the rebels," the insurgency could be eradicated within the next 10 or 15 years..... there was no popular support for the proposed protest programs launched by the seven-party alliance...... he insisted on dialogue between the king, political parties and the guerrillas to resolve the country's problems
• Nepal king's deputies taken to court for flouting law:- Webindia123 The two deputies of King Gyanendra - Tulsi Giri and Kiri Nidhi Bista, who are vice-chairmen of the council of ministers - as well as Home Minister Dan Bahadur Shahi and police chief Shyam Bhakta Thapa have been sued by the Nepal Bar Association (NBA), a body of independent lawyers..... Nepal's Chief Justice Hari Prasad Sharma Wednesday summoned the home minister to his office...... summons came after a spate of re-arrests by the government, making a mockery of the Supreme Court that had been ordering the release of several political detainees...... The government Wednesday released a dozen senior political leaders following court orders.
• India and America push for full multi-party democracy in Nepal India Daily Boucher said the situation had, however, improved in Nepal.
  

Two Steps Forward, One Step Back

That is a direct quote from Lenin. Basically he is saying once in a while you have to take a regressive step, as in two progressive steps, followed by one regressive step is still one progressive step ahead. As a matter of strategy, it is okay once in a while to make unholy alliances.

I think the Bahuns are determined to take one step back for now. The highly imaginative idea of reviving the parliament is a step to sideline the king. Once the parliament is in, they will amend the constitution to take the army away from the king. And they will then want to use the army against the Maoists. Which will put us back at square one. The same army will not put a better fight with Girija or MaKuNe as Commander-In-Chief.

But that is if the parliament is revived. I don't know if I should feel good about the idea that finally the parties are trying to hit back at the two extreme forces, the M&M coalition, or I should be critical that the parties are not trying to instead steal their political thunder first.

BP Koirala was right about Girija: he is a great organization man. But he does not come across as a great strategic thinker. And he gets one new idea every three years or so.

Basically it is Gyanendra, Prachanda, Girija.

During the 1990s, Girija was the center of gravity of Nepali politics, even when he was not Prime Minister. Ever since Deuba got sacked the first time around, that center of gravity has shifted to King G. And since 2/1 Prachanda has loomed larger than ever.

Reviving parliament is like killing several birds with one stone for Girija:

1. The center of gravity shifts back to him.
   
2. He gets to squeeze Deuba.
   
3. He gets to squeeze King G.
   
4. He will try to sqeeze the Maoists.

But those are big ifs. The biggest is at the beginning. Can the parliament be revived? Will it be revived? If it is revived, will the Congress play foul, and no longer feel the need for an all-party government, since in a revived parliament, a simple majority will be enough? Will it seek peace with the Maoists or instead try to avenge the death of the 1000 Congress workers at the hand of the Maoists? There is a school of thought within the Congress that wants the army under the parliament, but then that army still has to go and fight the Maoists. They are not exactly envisioning peace talks.

Prachanda's conditional support for the parties has to be seen with suspicion.

All three forces are constantly trying to use one against the other.

Peace is nowhere in sight. Confusion remains. There is much posturing and hardening of stances.

May 19

• UN concerns about situation in Nepal ReliefWeb (press release), Switzerland
• Comprehensive monitoring of human rights in Nepal ReliefWeb (press release) the Nepalese courts are unable to exercise any authority even in response to habeas corpus writs issued for persons believed to be in police or army custody...... The bane of many an operation has been the amateur officials from abroad, obtained through the deeply flawed U.N. internal recruitment system. Most of these persons tend to think of themselves as authorities simply because they are wearing a U.N. hat. If such persons get control of the mission in Nepal it will mean that the Nepalese, who are very well aware of their problems and stand ready to contribute, will withdraw from genuine participation. The operation will then be deprived of its only useful source of information and knowledge.
  
• Updates from Nepal to the World United We Blog, Nepal Maoist insurgents have stepped up attacks across Nepal..... Security Forces are losing ground to the well armed, well disciplined Maoists...... With unavoidable parallels to Vietnam before the fall of Saigon , King Gyanendra’s iron grip appears to be slipping...... Democratic Parties have .. begun internal re-examination of party platforms and tactics, with many of the leaders for the first time publicly accepting past mistakes........ The public, weary of war, the endless strikes, demonstrations, party rows, and abuse by the King’s Security Forces, has greeted the statement by Maoist leader Prachanda giving conditional support for the 7-Party movement suspiciously......... King Gyanendra faced with international condemnation, both a Maoist and a Democratic revolution, and a Security Force with dwindling military supplies must soon understand that continuing to rule by bullying, will result in the damaging consequences to the Nepalese Monarchy.
• Nepal Politics: Common Man is willing to give a change to parties United We Blog, Nepal The virtues of Democracy have been too long overshadowed by the vices of the politicians.......The King so far has done little to reach out to people, hence many don’t trust him.
• Parties should go to the people of Nepal United We Blog a matter of pride for freedom and peace loving Nepalis to see seven constitutional and pro-democratic political parties agreeing for a common cause..... Now peace is not that far, democracy is in the horizon.....No bombs or guns can defeat people power..... Maoists have extended their support to the agenda of seven party alliance United Front. And parties have rightly rejected the phony offer.
  
• For Nepal, this is the last chance to move forward United We Blog
• Nepal Maoists blast transmission tower Monsters and Critics.com, UK
• Nepal govt frees 15 political prisoners Gulf Times, Qatar "The king's defeat is now certain," Bam Dev Gautam, a senior communist leader, told reporters following his release....... "I don't recognise the unconstitutionally formed commission," Deuba told reporters inside the commission headquarters.
• US to push for full return of democracy in Nepal Hindustan Times, India

May 18

• 50 Maoists killed in Nepal clashes Daily Times, Pakistan
• Nepal frees politicians, interrogates journalist Reuters AlertNet
• Prod to Nepal Calcutta Telegraph, India

May 17

• VHP extends support to Nepal King Financial Express, India
• Nepal hears graft charges against former PM Deuba Reuters AlertNet, UK
• Prosecutors in Nepal seek 10-year term for Deuba in graft case Zee News
• Maoists kill 9 Nepali soldiers and police in clash Reuters AlertNet
• India for dialogue between parties and monarchy in Nepal Islamic Republic News Agency, Iran
• For Nepal, this is the last chance to move forward United We Blog, Nepal ....statement by Prachanda to support seven party’s movement as much as possible is clear indication that Maoist’s willingness to have negotiated settlement with parties, a sign of positive overture...... Girija Prasad Koirala has opened an avenue by publicly accepting that he had made mistakes in understanding King on dissolving House of Representatives in 1994 and subsequent political failures ...... road map, that King has publicly pledged, would be to allow the parties to function...... opening of political space by King, understanding between King and parties to temporarily reinstall parliament and form a national government, bring Maoists in for negotiated settlement, and conduct election of constituent assembly.
• Human Rights In Nepal: The Views Of Dinesh Prasain
• Thapa as Nepal PM wont be restoration of democracy For the last four days, rumors have been spreading like wildfire in Kathmandu about Thapa’s return to the top post for the record sixth time..... He predicted some kind of significant change to solve the current crisis of the country. ...... Democracy in Nepal does not mean king fire the VCs, create a post of Prime Minister and nominate Surya Bahadur Thapa in that post....... Surya Bahadur Thapa is not just a man. He is a CARD. Card of the Kings. All three kings Mahendra, Birendra and Gyanendra, have used this CARD
• Democracy, And Then? by Sarahana Shrestha, Samudaya ..... we have to reject tyranny from the beginning—from now—because the will to accept tryanny has been injected into our blood from the times of our grandfathers, grandmothers, teachers, parents, and so on..... You say you will criticize the king when he does wrong: what is stopping you now? ...... An approach where a citizen is encouraged to put his and her bright mind to dull things such as pop music buzzing endlessly on the FM
• Purge In The Ranks Of Nepal Maoists IRNA ...... noted Nepalese dissenter and opinion maker Yubaraj Ghimire said, the rift in the Maoist ranks is flowing from the rivalry between two topmost leaders in the rebel organization, Baburam Bhattarai and Prachanda...... Bhattarai is the ideological father of the movement....... Prachanda sacked Bhattarai recently from the party's politburo and removed his wife Hishila Yami and Dinanath Sharma from the central committee....... The three members were divested of all official roles and downgraded to the status of ordinary members...... Bhattarai had been protesting for some time against the over-centralization of power in the hands of Prachanda....... He was also against the increasing corruption and increasing instances of extortion and lack of transparency in accounts and the party's policy of executing rival forces..... Bhattarai had also accused Prachanda of possessing a feudal mindset.
• 100 Days Of Solitude by CK Lal .... The Maoists contributed to the 100-day celebrations by self-inflicting spectacular defeats in suicidal attacks on Monday night at some of the best-guarded army bases along the East-West Highway....... From the Shah to Marcos to Musharraf, the Americans don’t really care as long as strongmen are friendly...... Outside the bubble of Kathmandu Valley, violence is intensifying...... It’s a tragedy of our times that statues of past rulers are guarded day and night by armed soldiers in the capital while unprotected citizens across the country are left to fend for themselves..... The process of state building begun after 1990 stands derailed....... the direct rule of the palace since 4 October 2002 has uprooted the shoots of democracy.
• “How dare we let it happen” Former Speaker Daman Nath Dhungana in Deshantar, 8 May ...... Why is the country once again under the direct rule of the king? The constitution of 1991 had ended any provision for the king’s direct rule...... A state of emergency can’t be imposed without the ratification of the parliament and in absence of the recommendation of democratic forces. There is no way the king can be chairman of the ministers’ council. ..... I agree with Sher Bahadur Deuba on one thing—wherever we go, we need to understand that the constitution of 1991 should be the basis to march forward. .... the king must explain which constitution he is following.
• Ian Martin Interview Nepali Times ..... Monitoring human rights and humanitarian law in a conflict situation is inherently very difficult. ..... We will be assisting the National Human Rights Commission and of course, civil society organisations. ..... we also have a mandate to do independent monitoring of the human rights situation and have very strong commitments in the agreement to having complete freedom of movement and access to places of detention, high-level channels of communication with the authorities including the army. That puts us in a position where we ought to be able to be effective...... In an armed conflict and highly politicised environment, it is not easy to ensure that we approach things with the standards of testing the credibility of information that the UN must apply...... People have to understand that it takes time. ..... my mandate is confined to that one of human rights monitoring and assistance but I certainly believe that if we can contribute to improvement in the human rights situation, it can be a positive factor in the overall path to peace. That’s been the experience in other countries. So it’s not my mandate to explore possibilities of negotiations...... The agreement is initially for a period of two years but it is renewable
• The Delhi Durbar Nepali Times India may have overestimated its own leverage. “We expected that a strong reaction would make the king back off, the other assumption was that political parties would emerge as a strong alternative” ..... There is consensus here that a sustainable solution would have to be found within Nepal, and that will depend on the knack of Nepal’s political class to work together.

Scapegoating Deuba Shows King's Desperation

First it was terrorism versus peace, but noone bought it, especially the foreign powers that were the primary target of the propaganda. So now the Monarchists are turning inwards. Look how corrupt Deuba was. We had to take steps if only to curb him. They feel as long as they can keep the domestic audience happy, they can keep on keeping on.

The RCCC is a fundamentally flawed outfit that makes blatant mockery of due process. Because it was installed by a king who is technically above the law, the outfit is supposed to be above the law. This step, instead of taking the RCCC above the law, could instead end up bringing the monarch beneath it. It could fuel the republican sentiment.

I have been critical of the seven political parties, but that is not a criticism of democracy or the democratic movement. That is a criticism within the democratic camp. When democrats criticize each other's policy positions, they are doing a legitimate, democratic thing.

I still think the protest program is not imaginative enough. But it is a common minimum program. And as long as people come out in the streets, and fundamental rights get restored, political prisoners released, that opens up space for further democratic gains. So broadly I support the program, my criticism is with the specifics. The best part about the protest program is that finally the parties are doing something. Long overdue.

What I see happening is the seven parties create sufficient pressure to get the king to agree to an interim government. I don't see the parliament revived, but I do see an interim government in the works.

If the king were to end up jailing Deuba, he might see a hostility comparable to the one he saw right after 2/1. He is misreading the seven party demand of restoring the parliament as a denunciation of Deuba. That it is not.

I mean, what exactly are the king's options? He does not have the option to go for Panchayat II. If he takes steps in that direction, the monarchy will be doomed beyond repair. He better not be chalking out his own little constitution. And he does not have the three years he asked for. I guess he will bow once sufficient internal pressure is created. Near total external isolation, hostile Maoists, and huge internal pressure: that is the scenario he is looking at. So he could give in to the democrats now, or he could look like bowing to pressure a month from now.

What amazes me about the three camps is none of them want to talk to the other. They fear, if there are talks, they might have to reexamine their respective positions.

As a matter of principle, the democrats are right, of course. But as a matter of tactics, there is not sufficient attempt to (1) guarantee the continuation of the monarchy so as to respect public sentiment and to not push the king into the irrational territory, (2) design a constitutional monarchy that is totally devoid of political power and that ends up not costing the state any money, and (3) steal the political and social thunder of the Maoists.

On the king's part, if he waits for street protests to force his hands, he will lose in terms of popularity. But if he makes creative compromises now, he stands to gain popularity.

As for Maoists, they still seem to daydream they might be able to "use" the democrats. Not about to happen. They are not taking any steps towards their ideological transformation. Big mistake.

I guess I wish maximal strength to the democrats and wisdom to M&M/Eminem, the Monarchists and the Maoists.

In The News

• Delhi backs Nepal parties’ agenda Indian Express, India India today said it would fully back the common programme drawn up by political parties..... Together, the seven political parties represent about 95 pc of the erstwhile Pratinidhi Sabha of Nepal
• India for dialogue between parties and monarchy in Nepal Outlook (subscription)
  
• Senior Nepal political leaders charged with fraud Sify, India
• Panel files 2nd corruption case against Deuba Times of India Royal Commission for Corruption Control (RCCC) charged Deuba and five others including a former Cabinet minister, Prakash Man Singh, of embezzling US$53.3 million in connection with a road construction project. Deuba will attend a hearing on Tuesday and could be sentenced the same day
  
• 52 killed in fresh Nepal violence Hindustan Times, India nearly four-hour gun battle ..... Jaraytar in Sindhuli .... The clash erupted when security forces pursued a group of Maoist rebels, said to be fleeing from an eastern district where they had fought the army last week and suffered casualties..... 700 guerrillas..... reports have been pouring in about increased Maoist activities.....five days after the outlaws attacked four security posts overnight..... a spate of abductions of around 1,000 students by rebels....
  
• China, Australia to invest in Nepal's biggest hydro-electric ... Xinhua, China West Seti Hydropower ..... 750 mega watt...... 1.2 billion US dollars...... government had granted approval to the Snowy Mountain Engineering Corporation (SMEC) of Australia to develop the project in 1994, which has been working for that project for the past one decade..... project is supposed to be completed within five and half years..... entire power generated will be sold to India at 4.95 US cents per unit
• Nepalese soldiers continue hunt for children abducted by communist ... Winnipeg Sun In the past, the rebels have whisked students away for a few days to try to indoctrinate them with revolutionary ideology, and the children are usually returned safely.
  
• ‘Disseminate true information about Nepal’ Gorkhapatra
• Delhi nudge for Nepal monarch The Statesman, India India is not too happy with the pace of re-democratisation of the Nepali government
• Review decision to resume arms supplies to Nepal: CPM to govt Zee News
• Drug smuggling along India-Nepal border unearthed:- Webindia123, India "There are well organised criminal gangs on both sides of the border. Because of better intelligence, we have had some major seizures but we have no evidence to show it is funding the guerillas".....most of the drugs were grown in the Nepal hinterland, controlled by organised gangs....."difficult to monitor the many permeable routes".
• Party Leaders Meet Their Indian Counterparts To Protest Resumed Indian Aid INSN
• Washington DC Rally INSN An estimated 700 Nepalese and many American friends of Nepal rallied in Washington, D.C. on Sunday, May 15 to call for the restoration of democracy, civil liberties, and human rights. It was the largest rally of Nepalese in US history.....“Tyranny is No Answer to Terror” ..... “No Absolute Monarchy, No Obsolete Maoism.”..... Pramod Aryal of Georgia drove for 12 hours to reach the rally...... We fought for democracy, we won democracy, and now here we are again today..... Things are really bad outside of Kathmandu...... “100 Days Gone: King Lied to Us.”..... “Boston Nepalis Against Dictatorship” ..... a sign in Nepali comparing King Gyanendra to Saddam Hussein..... Rumors had spread in the immigrant community that US police would check the protesters for identification and would arrest anyone who was illegal, and some charged pro-royalists with spreading the fear....... Several U.S. soldiers who stopped to talk with protesters expressed support for the group’s pro-democracy aims...... Letters of support were sent to the rally by U.S. Senators Bill Nelson (D-FL) and Rick Santorum (R-PA) and Congressmen John Mica (R-FL) and James Walsh (R-NY).....
• UML Democracy Bulletion 9
• A Letter To Gyane Samudaya
• DC Rally Pictures Samudaya
• Prosecutors in Nepal seek 10-year term for former prime minister International Herald Tribune
• The harakiri decision Afternoon Dispatch & Courier

The Emotional Structure Of The Conflict

A truck driver once asked me to explain to him as to why there was no peace in the Middle East. I proceeded to explain. He did not let me talk for long. Apparently he prided himself in keeping up with the news.

"So why do we not give a small chunk of Arizona to the Palestinians, and be done with it!" he said.

Makes perfect logical sense. Why not! 2+2 is 4. Be done with it. Palestinians want land, let's give them land, and a better living. But the logic does not penetrate the emotional forces at work in a conflict situation like the Israel-Palestine scenario. Peace making is primarily managing the many disparate emotions on the ground.

The same can be said of the triangular conflict in Nepal. All three parties to the conflict, mainly the two guns, feel like people who offer logical solutions and roadmaps are just being naive. They fear their relative power might diminish in the process. The two guns are constantly angling for an inch or two of political territory.

It is perhaps like a complicated marriage situation, or a marriage gone awry situation. The two parties to the conflict see a reality that might be near impossible for an outsider to see.

As they say, you do not have to agree with them, but it helps to try to understand. Why do they do what they do? What are the forces at work? What options do they see before the choices they make?

From a distance the slow speed of progress on the part of each party to the conflict catches attention. It is like watching bullock cart motion.

The parties to the conflict do not have the luxury to look at developments with the detachment someone like me can, from a distance.

On the other hand, only a detached, neutral observer can best facilitate the peace process, seek common ground. The skills associated are as much of emotion management as anything else.

I believe I am going to read up into the Mid-East conflict to try and get a feel for some of the emotional forces at work in the Nepali context. Right now I am into a book that takes the alternate view that no, it was not Arafat's fault that peace was not achieved in 2000.

I think the mistake western peace makers make in the context of Mid-East is to put the two parties on equal footing. The Palestinians are much weaker. That asymmetry has to be taken into account.

In The News

• 600 kidnapped students found in Nepal CBC News, Canada
• Rebels Kidnap 500 Students in Nepal ABC News
• `Gyanendra has assured that democracy will return to Nepal' Hindu, India
• Students defy ban order in Nepal Hindu, India
• Bargain between guns and democracy in Nepal Scoop.co.nz (press release)
• Nepal rebels 'beat aid workers' BBC News, UK
• Nepal police break up pro-democracy rally Reuters
• 'Maoist war funded by drugs in Nepal' Times of India, India
• Donors suspend work after Nepal Maoist attack:-Webindia123, India
• Police Arrest Dozens of Demonstrators in Nepal Voice of America

Phone Talk With Hridayesh Tripathy

Finally I was able to track him down. He has been busy between Delhi and the border districts, on the Indian side from Banke, Bardiya to Morang. He has been in Delhi, and might be for another week before he goes for another round of border area reach-out program.

I just got off the phone.

He said the king has been moving in his own way. He is in his own "mood." The Maoists have welcomed the recent unity of the seven parties. The king on the other hand might be working to put forth a constitution of his own. His people might be doing the homework.

We have been for a Constituent Assembly to make changes to the state structure for quite a while. The Congress people might finally be coming around to the idea.

The idea of reviving the parliament in the new common minimum program that is to be the backbone of the proposed movement was something we had to put in so as to keep the Congress happy. They were stuck on it. And so we gave in.

Who will revive the parliament? It will not be the Supreme Court. And the Pratinidhi Sabha can not go into a Constituent Assembly. There is no such provision. The move to a Constituent Assembly will have to be a political decision.

The Maoists on their own can not reach the goal of a republic. They can not even reach the goal of a Constituent Assembly, on their own. And they are aware of their persona non grata status among the global players. So they have started to talk some sense.

Baburam Bhattarai has been restored his status in the party. This is a new development. He and Mahara are now a committee that will talk to the other parties. Baburam has been for a "bourgeoise republic." That is a sensible position for a revolutionary party, it steers them away from senseless violence. The Maoists have changed their line. But communication with them is one way traffic. They call when they have to. We don't have the option to call them.

The fear among the population in the country has been dissipating. The public has been gearing for a movement. The people are realizing, no democracy, no peace.

The last time we launched a major movement was when Thapa was Prime Minister. And the king was able to split us. But all parties have learned their lessons. This time we will be more careful. We have improved.

It will not be a good idea to have an all-party government under Article 127. Such a government will have to work the king's agenda, not its own.

I asked Hridayeshji about the possibility of a Kisunji style interim government of 1990. He said that would be a different matter. That interim government had the powers of both a legislative and an executive.

It is for the king to worry about the future continuation of the monarchy. He needs to play his cards right and honest. This is not the time to be playing games and getting adversarial with the parties. This is not an opportune time for royal adventurism.

At this point, he gave me his email address. He can be reached at t_hridayesh@yahoo.co.in

He said he has been travelling all along the border areas. He mentioned Banke, Bardiya. He had plans for Morang. He has mostly been in Gorakhpur, he said.

India's resuming arms supplies has had a negative physchological impact on the Nepali democrats. People are a little discouraged. The king and the monarchists have scored a major propaganda victory with the Indian step. But the left leaders in Delhi are very clear on their stand against any major military supplies. That is heartening.

I inquired about his family. He said there are people who are adversarial to him because of his struggle for Madhesi rights, his anti-corruption campaign, and for his quest for democracy. But their interaction should be with me, he said, friendly and otherwise, not with my family.

Laying The Grounds For A Weak Movement

The seven dwarfs have come up with the following:

1. No extremism - follow democratic path
2. An end of the autocratic rule of the king –the need of the day
3. Reinstatement of the house of representatives for the rule by the people’s representatives
4. Some main agenda for resolving national crisis
a. Formation of all party government answerable to the parliament
b. Management of violent conflict and establishment of sustaining peace
c. Commitment to progressive and forwarding moving programs
d. Fixing of constitutional questions
5. The constitution of the kingdom of Nepal 1990 as the basis of progressing ahead
6. National election schedule

(Source: Forum Asia)

This could lead to a restoration of the funamental rights of the people, which would be great, but this is no formula for lasting peace in the country. The number 3, reinstating the House of Representatives, is problematic. The parties need to make clear as to who will do it. I think it is implicit the king is supposed to. So your entire strategy rests on a possible act by the king. And if that be the case, the parties need to suggest as to what article and sub-article in the 1990 constitution the king may lawfully use to perform the act. Is it Article 127? Article 36? Some other article? What article will the king invoke to suggest reviving parliament is a constitutional act? Or is he to keep stretching Article 127 beyond recognition, as he has shown the propensity to do?

Point number 5 is the most problematic. The Pahadi Bahuns are nowhere close to seeing the 1990 constitution has to go. That is the only way out of the impasse. As a Madhesi, my pesonal disgust with the 1990 document is total.

The social regressives of the Congress and the UML seem to have bullied their smaller partners into signing into this document.

The 1990 constitution can not be merely tinkered with. It has to go. Something new has to come up.

These Bahuns think they are going to (1) get people out in the streets, (2) pressure the king into using his divine powers to resurrent the term-expired House, (3) talk the Maoists into working within the 1990 constitution by adding a few sweeteners, a few programs here and there, perhaps a Nepali version of the Jawahar Rojgar Yojana they have in India.

These are three big Ifs, progressively harder. I think (3) is impossible. And if that not be an option, the rest do not matter.

• THE NEW YORK TIMES (NYT) ON PERU ..... the insurgency is making a comeback ..... the military offensives of the People's Army of Liberation, which have continued unabated after the capture of President Gonzalo...... why have states of emergency and military curfews continued in most of the country since the capture of President Gonzalo in 1992? Why do the masked judges continue to exist? Why have psychological operations like the endless "capture of terrorists" publicized by the regime been intensified from 1992 to the present? ....... "Experts on terrorism said that the attacks were the most successful the Shining Path has undertaken since its top leaders were captured three years ago. The arrests were considered a turning point in a civil war that has killed more than 35,000 people and cost $25 billion in damages since 1980"...... The PCP has never had a single individual as leader, nor has it ever functioned on the will of any individual; therefore the capture of President Gonzalo may have temporarily disrupted the leadership, but it did not mean at all that the Party was "crippled" much less "decapitated." President Gonzalo himself described his capture simply as a "bend in the road."....... the SIN/CIA disinformation campaign as part of their psychological warfare...... 558 arrests every day as an average! ..... Shining Path guerrillas also attacked a construction company in the highlands, destroying equipment and property....... the destruction of imperialist equipment and property used to exploit the workers and plunder the resources of the country is a legitimate action of the revolution...... There is only one leadership of the Peruvian revolution: The PCP Central Committee. The "split" of the Party exists only in the obsessed mind of the imperialists....... Many of those expelled from the Party in the 70s and just before the initiation of the People's War, later participated in the elections for the Constitutional Assembly under military dictator Morales Bermudez, or have fled the country......
  
• Peru Fears Reemergence of Violent Rebels .....the stirrings of a dormant guerrilla
  organization ..... a spike in drug cultivation in these eastern forests and a surge in guerrilla activity...... the movement, which had declined rapidly after the arrest almost a decade ago of its ideological founder, Abimael Guzman, was resurfacing as a threat..... the Shining Path is regrouping with far stronger ties than in the past to the drug trade, particularly the lucrative commerce in opium poppies..... Gonzalo, was arrested two years after then-President Alberto Fujimori took office on a pledge to end the movement. Guzman said Peru's social order had to be destroyed to make way for a new one, a plan that called for killing 10 percent of the civilian population...... The investigation had safe houses and senior leaders under surveillance..... difficult to determine whether the Shining Path is resurfacing as an ideological movement or a drug gang working for Colombian sponsors, who supply the cash, seeds and technological know-how...... Numbering roughly 600 soldiers, the movement has lost its ideological leadership, and only two commanders have anything approaching national name recognition...... Last year, 70 percent of the heroin seized on the U.S. eastern seaboard came from Latin America, the vast majority from Peru and Colombia..... narco-traffickers and the Shining Path. Here they are the same
• Sendero File - Capture of Abimael Guzman - October 1992 / gci 275 .....an elite unit of the National Directorate Against Terrorism (DINCOTE) raided a residence in the middle-class neighborhood of Surco, suspecting that the residence operating as a dance studio was really a SL safehouse. On the second floor, policemen found a bearded, casually dressed man with a distinct air of a university professor. It was Abimael Guzmán, 57, Sendero's supreme leader and the most wanted man in Peru for more than a decade....... DINCOTE units also fell on two other safehouses, arresting 30 more people. The raids obtained a cache of documents, notes and computer disks. In the following days, police units swept up the national coordinator responsible for liaisons with the regional committees and the coordinator of the northern Lima zone........ To guarantee the secrecy of the operation, not even President Fujimori was notified. Credit was due to DINCOTE, the most consistently effective counter- terrorist unit and its commander, General Antonio Vidal...... a sterling example of nuts-and-bolts intelligence and surveillance work, police professionalism, and respect for human rights ...... "The psychological bubble was burst" ..... From 1 a.m. to 6 a.m., almost daily operations employing more than 1,000 army and police troops combed SL hotbeds in Lima's shantytowns, like Huaycán and Pachacamac (a new section of Villa El Salvador), though most arrests were of people not carrying identification documents. During the late morning hours, security forces carried out civic action programs, providing breakfasts, primary health care and even haircuts. Shantytown residents also used the police presence to reap a dividend for neighborhood safety by turning in thugs and drug addicts. There were also reports of residents identifying local SL cadres...... The government has also tried to exploit the psychological blow by portraying Guzmán as a crazed psychopath and common criminal.......those SL rank and file who turn themselves in will get lenient treatment, including a period of special military service and then a return to civilian life...... Guzmán is being represented by Alfredo Crespo, a lawyer belonging to the Asociación de Abogados Democráticos (Democratic Lawyers Association - AAD), a SL front organization. Crespo said that Guzmán considers himself a "prisoner of war."...... Currently, about 42 percent of national territory and 47 percent of Peru's 22.6 million inhabitants are under emergency military control....... Guzmán's capture is a huge setback for SL and comes when the organization was planning an unprecedented offensive to demonstrate the government's vulnerability. Guzmán himself has been laying the groundwork over the past eight years for SL to make a dramatic leap in striking power that was to be revealed in full in October this year....... For nearly 30 years, Guzmán has been the founder, ideologue and supreme strategist of Sendero Luminoso....... the instigator of a personality cult and the arbitrator of internal disputes, playing a role which no other party member could fill...... The capture compromises Sendero's whole organization from the top down..... SL ideology is a compact, coherent piece of circular logic which can appeal in a fragmented, dysfunctional society...... ideological message is packaged in easily digestible capsules...... the party, with its People's Guerrilla Army and satellite organizations, into a nationwide network with a decentralized command structure, tactical initiative and defined objectives...... demonstrate what the party claims as "strategic parity" against government forces. ... fighting force range from 5,000 to 10,000. SL retains its military apparatus intact and operative... as many as 50,000 militants provide logistical support..... a broad, multi-faceted and multifront strategy strikingly matched with an organization to carry it out..... In a country where few organizations work efficiently, Sendero does...... lines of action: propaganda; recruitment and training; education; infiltration, neutralization and seizure of competing organizations; logistical support and communication for its clandestine network, its operating units and its command structure; intelligence gathering and processing; and strategic planning at a national, regional and local level....... Guzmán oversaw a Senderista penetration in urban areas, a risky transition for any guerrilla movement, but a prerequisite for taking power..... engaged in urban activities which were unimaginable five years ago...... as the organization has grown and diversified, Guzmán was becoming more of a chairman of the board than a hands-on field general, and had to rely on competent subordinates with tactical autonomy and command authority..... The intelligence haul at the safehouses and any additional information that can be obtained from those captured is of a transitory nature, tactically speaking, but will have great usefulness in piecing together an understanding of how SL functioned...... Perhaps, as much as 70 percent of the national territory lies outside the permanent reach of the State...... The underlying causes of the insurgency and the setting of social and political decay have not changed with Guzmán's capture. The historical motherlode of ethnic and class hatred is still there to be mined. The economic recession is still grinding up scores of companies and spewing out massive unemployment. Narco- trafficking and corruption are undermining institutions already weakened by the impact of 15 years of crisis. The government has failed to provide minimum public services, especially in the areas of health, education and justice. The political system is fragmented and in upheaval, facing a crisis which predates the April 5 coup and will continue for the foreseeable future....... For an organization which has planned each step to the last detail, it is unimaginable that it has not planned for the possibility of Guzmán's capture....... the "shield of fear" which protects its cadres from being fingered...hostage taking, car bombs, massive sabotage or a spectacular attack........ the time line for revolution. Guzmán himself has already told the party to proceed with current plans...... Guzmán never designated a successor...... regional and military commands have, for the most part, been unscathed....... the Huallaga command which controls the party's purse strings; and the Lima metropolitan committee which will have to take the blame for Guzmán's capture....... Over the years, Guzmán has overseen internal tensions, instigated debates and channeled the friction into almost ritualistic purges of the upper tiers of the party, without permitting the organization to spin out of control...... Maoist guerrilla groups have generally fizzled after the loss of their founder, but fundamentalist movements, with which Sendero has strong similarities, have weathered the transition better...... Sendero's appeal has been its rigid ideological stance and dogmatic refusal to enter into political alliances....... Fujimori has skillfully shifted public debate to a `with me or with Sendero' polarity and there is precious little habitable middle ground for more sophisticated discussion .... there are still congressional sanctions attributable to the Fujimori coup...... it was premature to call Guzmán's capture a deathblow. "In this kind of war you can only measure substantial progress by the number of people and amount of territory that has been brought back to a viable democratic life."..... an internationally acceptable counterinsurgency campaign....... Sendero has begun political work in Ecuador, opening up a second international corridor to back up its toehold in Bolivia...... SL, however, failed repeatedly to gain a foothold in the lowland communities and urban areas of Piura..... On the Ecuador side of the border, SL has set up reception bases for incoming cadres to support them in changing identities, planning and travel...... In Bolivia, the collaboration between Sendero and the Tupac Katari movement has led Tupac Katari rank and file to shift their loyalties directly to SL, leaving the Bolivian leaders stranded...... provincial correspondents tend to misinform about, misinterpret or even invent incidents to fill their news quotas..... as SL grew and the military widened its area of authority, large sections of the country were no longer open for independent journalists to investigate........ the military institution has largely designed and implemented counterinsurgency strategy, leaving civilian policy makers aside in the decision-making process. What is more important, military officials have remained largely unaccountable for their decisions due to the lack of any civilian oversight capacity or alternative strategies....... Sendero's appeal to women and why they play leading roles in the organization..... the teacher who taught us open and secret work...... Guzmán went to China during the Cultural Revolution and met many of the battle-hardened cadres who fought against Japan and the Kuomintang. From their pragmatic lessons and from reading Mao's writings, he acquired the foundations of military thinking...... another influence on Guzmán, Sun Tzu and his monumental text The Art of War ..... Mao frequently paraphrased Sun Tzu in his writing and his instructions to his subordinates...... spent two decades studying the military tactics and strategies used in the Andes for four centuries...... SL's practices, its reliance on intelligence gathering, assessing the enemy's strengths and weaknesses, studying and choosing adequate terrain and climate and exploiting the unexpected and deception..... Sun Tzu: "Thus, those skilled in war subdue the enemy's army without battle. They capture his cities without assaulting them and overthrow his state without protracted operations."
• 'Superman' Meets Shining Path: Story of a CIA Success At 8:45 p.m. on Sept. 12, 1992, a special Peruvian police undercover unit captured Abimael Guzman, leader of the fanatical Maoist guerrilla group known as Shining Path, in his hideout on a quiet, middle-class street in Lima...... an astonishing achievement for Peru's police. "Superman" helped too..... "Superman" was the cops' nickname for a tall, dark-haired American who, they thought, resembled actor Christopher Reeve, and who served as their main contact in the Central Intelligence Agency..... When the cops needed cars, the CIA paid for them; when they found a Shining Path document in English, Superman translated...... the U.S. government found out before Peru's then-president, Alberto Fujimori, or his intelligence chief, Vladimiro Montesinos, did....... Helping catch Guzman, these sources concurred, was a CIA triumph.....Publicly, Fujimori praised the CIA-trained police who caught Guzman. Behind the scenes, Montesinos saw them as disloyal and later purged them..... the group shattered Peru's infrastructure and massacred villages. It controlled large parts of the countryside, including cocaine-producing regions, and was moving on Lima.....Brutality by Peru's army against civilians considered sympathetic to the guerrillas created almost as much terror as Shining Path itself..... Some DINCOTE agents even posed as terrorists and kidnapped civilians for ransom... ..... The situation disgusted an idealist in DINCOTE ranks, Maj. Benedicto Jimenez. The son of an Afro Peruvian father and a Greek immigrant mother, he had trained not only as a detective but also as an army commando.......For two years in the late 1980s, he had worked on joint operations with the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration. He read Ralph Waldo Emerson and the ancient Chinese military theorist Sun Tzu................ In March 1990, Jimenez asked to form a unit whose goal would be to capture the leaders of Shining Path. Jimenez proposed to accomplish this seemingly impossible task the old-fashioned way: tailing suspects, cultivating informants, poring over captured documents. Torture would be eschewed on both principled and pragmatic grounds....... "Sun Tzu used to say that you have to capture the enemy alive, because he's no good to you dead," Jimenez said...... Jimenez was given four agents, a tiny office and almost no budget. Most at DINCOTE were hostile or derisive........ By early 1991, senior officials in the Bush administration were fretting that Peru might succumb to the guerrillas. Among U.S. intelligence analysts, said one former official, "it was essentially a competition game as to when Shining Path would be taking over. Some said three years, some said five." ...... Hundreds of peasants had been forced to watch as a teenage female guerrilla put a bullet in an Australian nun's neck. Other guerrillas gouged out the eyes of a village leader....... Jan. 31, 1991, when it seized Shining Path documents, including proof that Guzman was still alive--a video of the guerrilla chief dancing at a party....... Jimenez's group also identified Shining Path's logistics and financial chief for Lima. Tailed by the cops, he unwittingly led them to other cadres....... needed help not only gaining information but also making sense of the data they had...... CIA officers showed the detectives how to analyze, cross reference and classify documents. Together with an expert from Britain's Scotland Yard, CIA personnel also taught the detectives how to conduct surveillance in disguise...... hired Peruvian actors to help undercover officers play the part of, say, a street vendor or homeless schizophrenic ..... CIA gave Jimenez's detectives spy gear: telephoto cameras, listening devices, night-vision goggles and a video camera that could be concealed in a briefcase. And the agency rented cars so police could follow suspects from a variety of vehicles....... Occasionally, CIA officers stood behind two-way mirrors watching the police question suspects, then advised the Peruvians on their techniques...... Jimenez, believing more could be gained by interviewing suspects than by beating them, wanted an interrogation room where they might feel at ease. At his request, the CIA furnished it with living room furniture...... Police videotape of the interrogation of Guzman and other Shining Path leaders shows them sitting at a round, wooden table; they chat with detectives dressed in white sweat shirts and blue jeans who politely serve coffee and cigarettes....... CIA provided cash to buy meals for undersalaried detectives who frequently worked 12- or 15-hour shifts. By the time of the Guzman raid, the agency was
  supplying about $5,000 per month...With such support, the police unit expanded to 82 members by the time of the arrest....... In February of that year, Jimenez had asked for aid, letting Montesinos see the video of Guzman partying and other juicy intelligence. Montesinos agreed to give Jimenez's unit $500 a month, two video cameras and two cars...... The Colina Group was the antithesis of Jimenez's unit. The group was heavily funded and amply equipped, and its purpose was to kill Shining Path leaders.......It never managed to do that. But it did commit assassinations, including the massacre of 15 civilians in a Lima neighborhood in November 1991 and the slaying of
  nine students and a professor at La Cantuta University in July 1992........ The attempt to infiltrate Jimenez's unit was aimed at selecting targets for the death squad....... February 1992, Shining Path had bombed the U.S. ambassador's residence in Lima, killing three police officers, and assassinated a popular left-wing mayor......June 22, 1992, Jimenez decided to arrest the Shining Path logistics and financial chief.
  Confronted in the CIA-furnished interrogation room with surveillance photos and videotapes, the man gave police a detailed confession, including two key facts: He
  had recently seen Guzman in Lima, and he knew of a house just rented for Shining Path leaders....... With the newly identified safehouse under surveillance, police officers disguised as sanitation workers began picking up the garbage left outside...... A male architect and female dance instructor were the home's only visible occupants. The trash, though, told a different story...... five different kinds of discarded hair....... One day's trash yielded a medicine package Superman helped identify as a Swedish ointment for psoriasis, from which Guzman was known to suffer........ Also, Superman identified a part of a label from a bottle of Absolut vodka, known to be Guzman's brand...... Then came empty cartons of Winston Lights, Guzman's favorite smokes, and fish bones, evidence that someone in the house ate a low-fat diet like the one Guzman followed, notwithstanding his taste for tobacco and alcohol...... When Superman and another American confronted him, Jimenez explained his decision with a line from Emerson: "Trust thyself."....... U.S. Embassy feared a murder would make a martyr of "Presidente Gonzalo." It could also have besmirched the CIA....... resisted pressure to hand the Shining Path chief to the Montesinos-controlled army. Today, Guzman remains jailed for life on a Peruvian naval base....... In police videotape of the Guzman arrest, the small, bespectacled Vidal appears serenely advising the Shining Path boss of his legal rights. Jimenez, for security reasons, stayed out of camera range...... When those images hit Peruvian TV, Vidal became a national hero. To this day, Jimenez and other members of the unit contend he has gotten undue credit....... After Vidal and Jimenez's men had split the $1 million reward, Montesinos set to work destroying their careers....... Jimenez wound up at the Peruvian Embassy in Panama as a police attache. Another key figure in the unit was shipped to Bolivia. Jimenez says one of his best CIA-trained agents now works as a jail guard......
• CNN - Peruvian army captures Shining Path leader - July 14, 1999 A 1,500-strong army sweep tracked down Ramirez, who went by the name Feliciano, after a two-week manhunt through jungle-cloaked gorges ...... Political analysts predicted during the ongoing search that the rebel leader's capture would effectively signal the death knell for his Shining Path rebels..... secretive Ramirez symbolized the dogmatism and relentless violence of the rebel movement...... Intelligence service officials had closed to within about 300 yards of the rebel leader on Tuesday, but the balding 46- year-old escaped across a river and disappeared into the jungle bush, guarded by a few rebels...... Using fighter jets, helicopters, ground and river troops, an increasingly strong combined force of military and police pinned Ramirez down in a remote area where the Amazon jungle merges with the eastern slopes of the Andes...... formed concentric circles around where they believed Ramirez was hiding and conducted house-by-house searches in tiny villages in the area....... security forces battled and overpowered two 20-strong columns of Shining Path rebels, who rushed to the zone to protect their leader....... Later in the day they captured three women who escorted Ramirez in his escape, leaving the rebel leader with only five guards...... Ramirez, the son of a retired army general, took control of the guerrilla movement after its founder and leader Abimael Guzman, known as "Presidente Gonzalo," was captured in 1992
• [PDF] LEADERSHIP AND POLITICAL PROCESSES IN PERU
• [PDF] Social Exclusion in Peru: An Invisible Wall