Rakesh Sood

At such moments, India is often first invited to play the role of peacemaker and then blamed for interfering in Nepal’s internal affairs.

his speech at the Constituent Assembly (CA) was a masterful exercise in touching all the issues that have troubled the India-Nepal relationship over years, and in striking the right notes. He spoke about respecting Nepali sovereignty and reiterated his readiness to revise the contentious 1950 Treaty in line with Nepali wishes, offering encouragement to the Constitution-drafting exercise. He wisely refrained from anything more, while expressing support for a federal, democratic Nepali republic but steering clear of the “secular versus Hindu rashtra” debate, speaking about the cultural and religious ties but without bringing in the Madhesi linkages and promising accelerated cooperation and generous terms for Nepal’s power exports to India. Even though the earlier $250 million line of credit was yet to be exhausted, a generous new line of credit of a billion dollars was announced. ....... the two governments signed a Power Trade Agreement (PTA) while GMR also concluded a Project Development Agreement (PDA) regarding a 900 MW hydel project on Upper Karnali. ...... Out of the 28 survey licences granted to private entities over the last decade, amounting to a total of 8,000 MW, GMR was the first to conclude a PDA. Nepal has an installed hydel capacity of 700 MW with an annual shortfall of 450 MW which is only partially made up through imports from India, leading to power cuts of more than 14 hours a day in the dry season. Despite a technically feasible and economically viable proven potential of more than 40,000 MW, development of the hydel sector has remained politically blocked. It is expected that during Mr. Modi’s visit, the Satluj Jal Vidyut Nigam (SJVN) Limited will also sign a PDA for the 900 MW Arun III project. ...... Three new international airports at Nijgadh (near Kathmandu), Pokhara and Bhairahawa (to service Lumbini) are being planned. A new Kathmandu-Terai highway is being fast-tracked along with the Kathmandu-Hetauda tunnel project. Nepal’s Planning Commission has pointed out that in order to graduate from a ‘Least Developed Country’ to a ‘Developing Country’ by 2022, Nepal would need an investment of nearly $100 billion in infrastructure, of which more than two-thirds will have to come from private sector and multilateral institutions. ........ The Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the International Finance Corporation (IFC) plan to issue long-term bonds amounting to a billion dollars each in local currency in order to provide greater depth to the capital market. There is talk about the need to create a new financial institution to undertake infrastructure financing. While all the buzz is not due to Mr. Modi’s first visit, it certainly added to it because Nepal felt that India was politically engaged, with a new decisive leader at the helm of affairs. ....... At both sites, Mr. Modi sought to address public gatherings which would have attracted huge numbers, including from Indian border towns and villages. Initiatives regarding border connectivity, the tourism potential of the Ayodhya-Janakpur circuit and the Lumbini-Bodhgaya-Sarnath circuit, and development of irrigation in the Terai which is the breadbasket of Nepal would have resonated with the audience and presented Mr. Modi as the tallest leader in the region. This evidently made Nepali political leaders uneasy. Nepal’s government has therefore cited security concerns to turn down the idea of public gatherings, proposing civic receptions instead where Nepali leaders would share the platform and Mr. Modi’s interaction would be limited to (selected) local community leaders. ........ the deep-rooted suspicion about the Indian agenda which surfaces time and again, particularly when domestic politics deteriorates into a polarising slugfest. .......... Madhesi resentment who are unhappy about the fact that not only are they being presented with a divided Madhes but the districts containing the Kosi, Gandak and Karnali river basins have been excluded from the two Madhesi provinces proposed. .......... The ruling coalition parties (NC, UML and RPP) have traditionally been dominated by the pahadi Bahuns and Chettris who have little sympathy for federalism, a demand associated with Maoists and Madhesis. Both these groups have fractured: from three parties in 2007, Madhesis now have over a dozen and the ruling coalition could well tempt some with offers of ministerial positions. ......... While the CA will continue till 2017 (it was elected for a four-year term in 2013), the positions of president, vice-president and prime minister will open up. Prime Minister Sushil Koirala has announced that he will step down once the task of Constitution drafting is completed. Leaders within the NC and UML are also positioning themselves accordingly. ........ if the Constitution is pushed through with a two-thirds majority, it can lead to the alienation of large sections of the population. The Madhesis would feel let down by India and the Janjati groups would gravitate to hard line Maoist positions. The challenge is therefore to develop a broader consensus than rely on two thirds. ........ He will have to draw a fine line in terms of remaining politically engaged with all groups and yet keep the focus on the economic issues where he can promise, and should ensure, quick delivery. .... He will need to adopt an open style of diplomacy so that, in a break from the past, Nepali nationalism is not reduced to anti-Indianism.

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Taking Kanak Mani Dixit To Task

Kanak Mani Dixit: Hindustan Times: Time to mend fences

BP Koirala enjoyed a wide range of contacts with national and regional leaders, including Jawaharlal Nehru, JP Narayan, Ram Manohar Lohia and LN Mishra. Today, Nepal is reduced to the level of Maoist leaders Pushpa Kamal Dahal (Prachanda) and Baburam Bhattarai who seem content in their contact with Indian desk officers and handlers.

Comparing Prachanda and Baburam Bhattarai to BP Koirala is unfair. That would be like comparing Fareed Zakharia to Kanak Mani Dixit, both are well known journalists, but in two different leagues. But I'd suggest Baburam Bhattarai's friend Prakash Karat is no "desk officer and handler."

Having worked with permutations from absolute monarchy to parliamentary anarchy, the Indian State seems to be on the lookout for whoever will ‘deliver the goods’, viz hydropower; stored water for irrigation, navigation and urban use; security across the frontier; and shared economic growth with Uttar Pradesh and Bihar in particular.

The suggestion seems to be that New Delhi should only do business with Nepal when the Nepali Congress is in power. That is wrong thinking. New Delhi should do business with whoever the Nepali people vote into power.

Like the ‘useful idiots’ in Kathmandu, a vocal coterie in India thinks it is chic to ridicule Nepal’s parliamentary parties as retrograde conservatives.

But that is the case. The Nepali Congress and the UML are status quoists that just played a fundamental role in momentarily defeating the just cause of federalism. They disallowed due process because due process was about to get the country federalism.

(New Delhi) helped cobble together the Bhattarai-led Maoist-Madhesbadi coalition in August 2011 and got involved in the federalism debate.

It is the Nepali people who want federalism in Nepal. It is not New Delhi. It is the Nepali people that voted for the Maoists and the Madhesi parties.

Hard to believe, but India was lobbying for one or two Tarai-based provinces, which made little sense from the perspective of devolution of power, regional stability, or dignity and economic well-being of the plains people of Nepal.

This is where Kanak Mani Dixit reveals himself. He is no impartial journalist. The media in Kathmandu is part of the status quo power structure, the kind that runs the show at parties like the Nepali Congress and the UML. Kanak Mani Dixit reminds me of Gagan Thapa. Both are smart, talented people doing well with their respective careers. And I saw one cause with them in 2005 when we were all working for democracy. But now they feel so very distant. Their ethnic prejudice is their one ideology. The Janajatis and the Madhesis need to vacate the Nepali Congress and the UML.

Of course there are going to be "one or two Tarai-based provinces." That is what the people in the Terai want. That is what the Madhesi Movement was all about.

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Indian Maoists

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Foreign Policy: Fire In The Hole: about 2,000 villagers who had been hiding behind the commando vanguard clambered over the fence into the compound and began emptying the magazine. Altogether they carried out 20 tons of explosives on their backs -- enough firepower to fuel a covert insurgency for a decade. ..... For years, the Maoists had lived in the shadow of India's breakneck modernization. Now they were thriving off it. ..... railing against what the rebels' spokesman described to us as the "evil consequences by the policies of liberalization, privatization, and globalization." ...... a full-fledged guerrilla war. Over the past 10 years, some 10,000 people have died and 150,000 more have been driven permanently from their homes by the fighting. ...... "Operation Green Hunt": a deployment of almost 100,000 new paramilitary troops and police to contain the estimated 7,000 rebels and their 20,000-plus -- according to our research -- part-time supporters. ..... a country 20 years into an experiment in rapid, technology-driven development, one of globalization's most celebrated success stories. ....... Today, India's GDP is more than five times what it was in 1991..... Economic liberalization has not even nudged the lives of the country's bottom 200 million people. ...... India's vast hinterland remains dirt poor -- nowhere more so than the mining region of India's eastern interior, the part of the country that produces the iron for the buildings and cars, the coal that keeps the lights on in faraway metropolises, and the exotic minerals that go into everything from wind turbines to electric cars to iPads. ...... If you were to lay a map of today's Maoist insurgency over a map of the mining activity powering India's boom, the two would line up almost perfectly. ..... Revenues from mineral extraction in Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand topped $20 billion in 2008, and more than $1 trillion in proven reserves still sit in the ground. ...... foreign investment in the country has grown to 150 times what it was in 1991. ....... some $80 billion worth of projects are stalled at least in part by the guerrilla war, enough to double India's steel output. ...... ining companies have managed to double their production in the two states in the past decade, even as the conflict has escalated; the most unscrupulous among them have used the fog of war as a pretext for land grabs, leveling villages whose residents have fled the fighting. At the same time, the Maoists, for all their communist rhetoric, have become as much a business as anything else ...... Shimmering waves of heat, thick with carbon monoxide and selenium, waft through jagged cracks in the pavement large enough to swallow a soccer ball. A hundred feet below, a massive subterranean coal fire, started in an abandoned mine, burns so hot that it melts the soles of one's shoes. ....... this blaze could easily smolder for another 200 years before the coal seam is finally burned through. ...... A fire ignited in 1916 by neglectful miners near the city of Jharia has grown so large that it now threatens to burn away the land beneath the entire community, plunging the 400,000 residents into an underground inferno. ...... statehood only enabled the rise of a new cast of villains. ...... The guerrillas shun email and mobile phones and rarely communicate with the world beyond the jungle, mostly via letters ferried back and forth by foot soldiers. Over several years of attempted correspondence, we received only a few missives in return. All were written in an opaque style full of the sort of arcane Marxist jargon that the rest of the world forgot in the 1970s. ......... many of their local commanders appear to be in it for the money alone. ...... "The only way to stop the attacks is to negotiate." ...... a state where less than half of raw materials are extracted legitimately. ..... The protection money, like the small bribes Kumar says he pays to the police to avoid troublesome safety and environmental regulations, has simply become another operating cost. ...... "If you want to be somebody in Jharkhand, just kill an aid worker" ...... Salwa Judum, secretly assembled by the Chhattisgarh government in 2005 to fight the Maoists; its 5,000-odd members patrol the state armed with everything from AK-47s to axes. Some roam the forest with bows and arrows. ..... After leftist author Arundhati Roy paid a visit to the Maoists this year, the Indian government reinterpreted its anti-terrorism laws to make speaking favorably about the rebels or their ideological aims -- including opposition to corporate mining -- punishable by up to 10 years in prison. ...... mistaking industrialization for development -- by thinking that it could launch its economy into the 21st century without modernizing its political structures and justice system along with it, or preventing the corruption that worsens the inequality that development aid from New Delhi is supposed to rectify.

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The Economist: Nepal, China And India: Rivals On The Roof Of The World: Great-Power Rivalry Grows In The Himalayas: China has played a low-key role in Nepal until recently. But the emergence of the Maoists as the largest party has shifted the balance, with India becoming more closely aligned with the anti-Maoist faction. The prime minister, Madhav Kumar Nepal, says India’s government distrusts them and wants the party to make sweeping changes to its organisation and beliefs. .... one MP said his daughter stood to lose her scholarship in India if he voted Maoist. ...... Senior staff at the country’s largest newspaper group, which Indian diplomats think hostile to their country, say they have been unable to get newsprint through India and that Indian companies have been asked to withdraw advertising. .....politicians of all stripes think India is trying to micro-manage Nepal and anti-Indian sentiment runs high. Indian diplomats “swagger around like viceroys” .... the ceasefire is looking ever more threadbare .....Being sandwiched between two giants might seem promising for a poor country. With skill, Nepal could play one off against the other. Instead, with peace in the balance and fears growing that both neighbours are vying to pick the next prime minister, Nepal risks being ground between their vaulting regional ambitions.