The Maoists Have Won

Calling off their Nepal Bandh after six days I see as a grand victory for the Maoists. They have exhibited that they are capable of experimenting, that they are capable of the scientific approach. You try something. If it does not work, you ditch it and go try something else. First they tried a peaceful shutdown of the country. After they realized they were imposing unnecessary hardships for the populations, they partly lifted the strike. People could move around in the evenings. Perishable goods - fruits, vegetables, milk - could be transported. And so on. I was very impressed. Finally they have gone ahead and called off the entire Bandh itself. I am impressed.

Now that they have shown their street power, the Maoists still have the option to show their opponents their constitutional power. Unless the Maoists agree to it, the term of the constituent assembly can not be extended. If the term is not extended, this government's term is over, and there is a constitutional crisis. Although the constitution says you only need a majority in the parliament to form a government, in this case what is true is the ruling coalition needs the Maoists' approval to go on being in power. That gives the Maoists great leverage at the bargaining table.

A national unity government is still possible. It is desirable. But that has to be brought about through constitutional means. And it will only happen if the Maoists exhibit that they understand coalition culture. A coalition culture is where all partner parties together decide on who the Prime Minister will be, for example.

If Prachanda agrees to the Baburam Bhattarai name, that will give his party six months in power. And if the government performs well, the Maoists might come back with a full majority of their own in the new parliament. At that point, the Maoist central committee on its own can decide as to who their Prime Minister will be. Although I must point out I think coalition governments are here to stay in Nepal just like in India. The sooner the Maoists appreciate the give and take involved in coalition governments, the better their political prospects will look.

The Maoists: Thinking Or Dogmatic?

Maoists To Allow Markets Open From 6 PM To 10 PM; Transportation Of Perishable Products Not To Be Obstructed NepalNews

This move by the Maoists gives me hope that the thinking Maoists who went from a violent struggle for a one party rule to a unilateral ceasefire and a common minimum program of a constituent assembly have not become all dogmatic and unthinking somewhere along the way. This move makes the Maoists look good.

Although the constitution does not ask for a government with more than a simple majority, I do feel the political need for something like a 10 party government. I am for a national unity government. But a give and take situation has to be created. The idea can not be to humiliate either the Maoists or the parties in power. The idea can not be to rub the other's nose in the dust, politically speaking.

This tactical flexibility the Maoists have exhibited on how to run their peaceful movement has also to be exhibited on the political front. If this shutdown of the country goes on for more than a week, for more than 10 days, it will have gone on for too long.

An Appeal To The Maoists

2005 was a politically complex year for Nepal. The year started out with three forces at loggerheads. The three forces were all at cross purposes. The royalists imposed a dictatorship. The Maoists were waging a violent struggle for one party rule. The democratic parties were squeezed by both. The business at hand was to get the royalists out of the way, and that could come about if the other two camps could join forces, and the other two camps could not join forces as long as the Maoists kept waging a violent struggle for one party rule. That violence had to come to an end first, and a political road map had to be agreed upon. The big parties like the Nepali Congress and the UML were opposed to the idea of a constituent assembly. But that was the only meeting ground. And that is what came to be. But first the Maoists needed to cease violence.

I argued that the Maoists needed to declare a ceasefire.

Prachanda, Order Your Cadres To Live

They did.

After Ganapathy, A Ceasefire
For The First Time In A Decade, Permanent Peace Feels Possible

Then it was but expected that the royalists will try to get them to break that ceasefire.

Militarists Attempting A Doramba Repeat To End Ceasefire

It still made tremendous sense for the Maoists to continue with the ceasefire, and they did.

Prachanda, Extend The Ceasefire By Three Months

That is what made talks between the Maoists and the democrats possible. And then the onus shifted to the democrats. Unless they agreed to the idea of a constituent assembly, there was not going to be an alliance with the Maoists. They reluctantly agreed.

The alliance happened. And that prepared ground for the historic April 2006 revolution. That revolution could not have come about without the alliance.

The reason I am talking the history of 2005 is that has lessons for today.

Just like the Maoists went for the unilateral ceasefire back in 2005, they should now unilaterally declare they are for a constitution that will turn Nepal into a multi-party democracy of state funded parties, that they are for an ideological fusion of the two competing political ideologies of the past century, and that after that there will be no revolution, only elections. They should steer their movement towards that goal. Change of government has to become a secondary concern.

Once Nepal is turned into a multi-party democracy of state funded parties where the book keeping of all parties is public, transparent, you can achieve land reform peacefully. You win elections, pass bills in the parliament.

Power flows through the ballot box. Power does not flow through the barrel of a gun. But power only flows through the ballot box if Nepal is turned into a multi-party democracy of state funded parties.

1. All parties agree to turn Nepal into a multi-party democracy of state funded parties. The Maoists declare there will be no revolution after that, only elections. 
2. Form a national unity government of the 10 largest parties in parliament in Baburam Bhattarai's leadership. Come up with a common minimum program. 
3. Extend the constituent assembly's term by six months. 

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A 10 Party Government In Baburam Bhattarai's Leadership