Friday, April 18, 2008

Are The Maoists Anti-Madhesi?



Maoist eager to work with MJF: Dr Bhattarai his party was ready to join hands with the one-time archrival of Madhesi Janadhikar Forum (MJF) in forming a new coalition government. ..... his party would also like to work with other Terai based parties like Terai-Madhesh Loktantrik Party and Sadbhawana Party. ...... Bhattarai denied the foremost demand of the Terai parties for a single Madhes province in a federal Nepal. .... MJF has emerged as the biggest regional party
MJF likely to give Maoists a hard time Himalayan Times Our cooperation with the Maoists will largely depend on how they address the issues of Madhes,” said MJF coordinator Upendra Yadav. He urged the Maoists to make their stance clear on the issues of autonomous Madhes, federal democratic republic, proportional representation of the Madhesis in all sectors and empowerment of the Madhesis, aboriginal nationalities, Dalits and all other marginalised groups. ...... “If they continue to tilt towards the extreme left, it will cause imbalance of power. This could affect the inter-party relations,” Yadav said, adding, “We have not yet decided on whether or not to join the government.” ...... President of the Sadbhawana Party Rajendra Mahato and TMDP leader Sarbendra Nath Shukla agreed with Yadav. “We will support the Maoists if they address our concerns, otherwise we will oppose them,” said Mahato. “We are going to help frame a new constitution, but will not be a part of the new government,” he added. ..... “We will resort to protests in the House and on the streets if the Maoists’ disposition towards the Madhes problem is not positive,” TMDP leader Shukla said. ...... “We still have serious differences with them (Madhesi parties). Their demands of one Madhes, one Prades and immediate proportionate recruitment of the Madhesis into Nepal Army are communal agendas. In the long run, these agendas can lead to the disintegration of the nation,” CP Gajurel
पाँच बुँदा, पाँच चुनाव

I am okay with either of the two maps above when it comes to federalism. But the real issue is not how you draw the map for federalism. The real issue is to make sure the one person, one vote principle is adhered to when it is time to decide on the power distribution between the center and the states. That will be the tricky part. The devil is in that detail.

The first map is a slight modification of the original Maoist map that had nine states. I have modified that to create a Khasan. But that first map goes for ethnic federalism. And I think that can get problematic. The second map goes for geographic federalism. I think the second map is better if you have rapid economic growth in mind for this poor country.

The question is, do you or do you not keep the 75 districts? I think it will be a bureaucratic nightmare to get rid of the 75 districts. That is a huge reason to stick to my proposal of four states, and 75 districts.

Almost half the people in the Terai are non Madhesi. Making all of Terai as one state should not be problematic. It would make great economic sense.

But then when the Maoists deny the idea of all of Terai as one state, and in the same breath go on to deny the idea of proportional representation of the Madhesis in the future Nepal Army, then you have to get suspicious of them. Those are anti-Madhesi sentiments. If you end up with a Pahadi army at the end of the peace process, that will not have been a peace process at all.

Madhesi Movement: Next Moves

As for the power distribution between the center and the states, I have talked about it here before.

पाँच बुँदा, पाँच चुनाव

My worst fear is that the Pahadis might create two states in the Terai and five or more states in the hills and then say each state should get 10 seats each in the Upper House. After that the Madhesh will be permanently colonized. Better a separate country than such a federalism.

The power distribution between the center and the states has to be based on the one person one vote principle.

In The News

Maoists' share in PR votes come down to 30 percent NepalNews of the total 84,53,565 votes counted till Friday, the Maoists have garnered 25,98,303 votes ...... Nepali Congress (NC) is in second place with 18,31,342 votes (21.66 percent) followed by the Unified Marxist Leninist (UML) with 17,84,473votes (21.11 percent). ...... The Madhesi Janadhikar Forum (MJF) is in fourth place with 4,51,634 votes (5.34 percent) and the Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) is in fifth place with 2,12,713 votes (2.52 percent). ..... Terai Madhes Loktantrik Party (TMLP) at 2,06,098 votes. ..... 10 million people had cast their votes
EC to announce PR results in about ten days will take additional four days to allocate the seats to the parties.
PM asks UML ministers to return to work
NC leaders to Maoists: Abide by past agreements for alliance only after the former rebels immediately stop "intimidation and violent activities" and fully abide by the past agreements and understandings can there be any working alliance between the two parties ...... He added that the future government should be formed in consensus of all parties, requesting that nobody should doubt the intention of the Maoists as the party has already come to peaceful politics and has gained popular mandate.
Maoist eager to work with MJF: Dr Bhattarai his party was ready to join hands with the one-time archrival of Madhesi Janadhikar Forum (MJF) in forming a new coalition government. ..... his party would also like to work with other Terai based parties like Terai-Madhesh Loktantrik Party and Sadbhawana Party. ...... Bhattarai denied the foremost demand of the Terai parties for a single Madhes province in a federal Nepal. .... MJF has emerged as the biggest regional party

MJF likely to give Maoists a hard time Himalayan Times Our cooperation with the Maoists will largely depend on how they address the issues of Madhes,” said MJF coordinator Upendra Yadav. He urged the Maoists to make their stance clear on the issues of autonomous Madhes, federal democratic republic, proportional representation of the Madhesis in all sectors and empowerment of the Madhesis, aboriginal nationalities, Dalits and all other marginalised groups. ...... “If they continue to tilt towards the extreme left, it will cause imbalance of power. This could affect the inter-party relations,” Yadav said, adding, “We have not yet decided on whether or not to join the government.” ...... President of the Sadbhawana Party Rajendra Mahato and TMDP leader Sarbendra Nath Shukla agreed with Yadav. “We will support the Maoists if they address our concerns, otherwise we will oppose them,” said Mahato. “We are going to help frame a new constitution, but will not be a part of the new government,” he added. ..... “We will resort to protests in the House and on the streets if the Maoists’ disposition towards the Madhes problem is not positive,” TMDP leader Shukla said. ...... “We still have serious differences with them (Madhesi parties). Their demands of one Madhes, one Prades and immediate proportionate recruitment of the Madhesis into Nepal Army are communal agendas. In the long run, these agendas can lead to the disintegration of the nation,” CP Gajurel
Nepali Congress not to quit government over 10 central leaders, who attended today’s meeting, had claimed that the party suffered the most due to failure of the government to put in place an effective security arrangement to ensure free and fair election.
UML’s rider to join Maoist-led govt the UML will not join the Maoist-led government unless the CPN-Maoist “transforms as a non-military political outfit” like the UML and the NC. ....... We will support your government from outside. People are also eager to see how you run the administration ...... Prachanda had also insisted that Nepal should be part of the CA despite his defeat in polls because of his role in the peace process. ..... Prachanda and Bhattarai also met Home Minister Krishna Prasad Sitaula and sought his cooperation in persuading the NC to join the new government.
Hurdles in declaring republic?


Thursday, April 17, 2008

Non Maoist Government Possible, All Party Government Advisable



The Maoists will end up with 240 out of 601 seats in the constituent assembly, looks like. That is nowhere close to a majority. If all the non Maoist forces were to come together, the Maoists will be the largest but a minority presence in the assembly.

Technically speaking a non Maoist government is still possible. Politically it might be desirable that all the other parties decided they are sick and tired of the muscle politics of the Maoists.

Morally it is not advisable. The largest party should have some say. But then after Rajiv Gandhi's Congress lost in 1989, it was still the largest party, but it did not get a majority, and so it stayed out.

Practically speaking what would be best would be to form an all party government with the largest party leading. That way the Maoists don't end up with all the plum portfolios. Maoists might get Defense, the NC might get Home, the UML might get Foreign, the MJF might get Finance.

Such an all party government will be a better way to check Maoist excesses than to sit outside and watch. Imagine how much worse the YCL will behave if the Maoists have both Home and Defense. Then they will behave worse at the polls two years from now. They might bring forth another Maoist sweep. Then what? You will wait four years?

The country gets declared a federal republic on day one. Then the assembly could vote to establish an executive presidency, or that could wait and for the time being we might end up with an executive prime minister and a ceremonial president.

If it is to be an all party government, the non Maoist parties get to argue, either the Maoists get the ceremonial presidency, or the executive prime ministership, but not both.

Best would be for the second largest party to get the ceremonial presidency. I recommend Chitralekha Yadav's name. She represents a few different marginalized groups. Then either Baburam or Prachanda get to be Prime Minister. The third largest party, the UML, gets the Speakership. The fourth largest party, the MJF, gets the Deputy Speakership.

Then the country can opt for an executive president in the new constitution.

If you try to form a non Maoist government, work on the new constitution will become hard. If you stay away from forming an all party government, that will be like giving the Maoists a blank check. Their behavior at the grassroots will get worse. So join and secure the Home Ministry for either the NC or the UML.

Ceremonial President: Chitralekha Yadav
Executive Prime Minister: Prachanda/Baburam
Speaker: Subash Nembang
Deputy Speaker: Karima Begam
Defense: Maoist
Home: NC
Foreign: UML
Finance: MJF

Form an all party steering committee. We don't want a Prime Minister like Girija making decisions on whim. All the party presidents are members.

Coalition Government, But Which Coalition Partners
All Party Government, Prachanda President, Chitralekha Speaker
Nobel Peace Prize 2008: Making A Case For Nepal
Prachanda Gets To Be Nepal's First President
Permutations And Combinations



In The News

Maoists declare political revolution over, economic begins Kantipur New Nepal cannot be built without bringing about an economic revolution. ..... We will create ‘economic miracle’ in next ten years ..... “The private sector will lead the country’s economy and we will facilitate things for you (private sector)”. ... The new government will stress on new policy for tax system and end the culture of commissions and corruption ..... a new transitional economic policy with medium level development in the next 10 years, high level growth in 20 years and ultra-high level development in the country in 40 years.
YCL bullies Gagan, NC cadres Maoist-affiliated Young Communist League (YCL) on Wednesday barred Nepali Congress (NC) candidate under the proportional representation system Gagan Thapa and his team as they were traveling on a vehicle from going to Madanpur in Nuwakot district, where re-poll is scheduled for Thursday. Thapa and his team were forced to return to Kathmandu after being stopped at Kakani at about 8 pm. ..... Thapa complained that a local police did respond to the incident and a team reached there but they were helpless in front of the Maoist cadres. “This clearly shows how the situation of voters is in the place, where the re-poll is taking place”
Maoists attack, intimidate NC cadres "armed and violent Maoist cadres" allegedly vandalized and looted houses of NC leaders and cadres like Basudev Jangali and Basanta Sapkota, Area Presidents of Dang constituency-1 and 5 respectively. The Maoists also attacked and vandalized the house of Krishna Basnet, President of Rajpur village unit. .... the Maoists are still searching for persons deployed as NC representatives at the booth stations and have been continuing to attack such individuals. ...... "Around six to seven hundred NC cadres have been displaced from the district due to Maoist terror"
Mostly janajatis elected in western region The CA poll contenders from Lamjung, Manang, Gorkha, Tanahun, Gulmi, Mustang, Baglung, Palpa and Syanja districts are mainly from the ethnic groups.
Maoists unlikely to get absolute majority the Maoists are not likely to get more than 240 seats counting FPTP and PR together. .... In the remaining 16 constituencies they are likely to bag maximum of 10 seats. Because most of those 16 constituencies fall in Madhes region, where Madhesi parties are faring much better than Maoists. ..... the Maoists may require at least 62 more seats to get absolute majority ...... the NC and UML may get around 212 seats altogether.
NC, UML consult CA polls defeat the meeting has demanded local reports from the parties’ activists and agreed to take decisions regarding their participation in the future government after viewing the complete results of the CA polls.

Terai based parties bag votes in hills, mountains NepalNews MJF bagged 126 votes in Taplejung district and 114 in Sindhupanchowk district under proportionate representation system. The party has received 54 votes in Rolpa and 65 in Rukum, the heartland of the Maoists. ..... it even received one vote in the most remote district of Mustang, where the Mahanta Thakur led TMDP bagged seven votes. In Rolpa TMLP received 68 votes and 28 in Rukkum. ..... The Terai based parties did well in eastern and western Terai districts where their party activities remain non-existent such as Jhapa, Kailali and Baitadi. In Jhapa alone, MJF bagged around 10,000 votes.
Prachanda courts Nepal for UML's participation in new govt Nepal made it clear that the UML agrees to an all-party consensual government, but the decision whether the party should join the next government would be taken by its Standing Committee meeting to be held soon ...... reached a tacit understanding for a "working cooperation" between the leftist parties.
Indian envoy reassures India's 'active support' to Nepal
MK Nepal urges all to unite for establishing republican order
NC calls CWC meet to review party's defeat in polls
Repolling concludes peacefully in 45 centres
Bhattarai says King will be removed respectfully
Prachanda holds 'long and serious' talks with Indian FM He also informed that during discussion with the European Union including many other foreign countries, he avowed his commitment towards the peace process, multiparty democracy and economic development.

CPN (Maoists)
119
Nepali Congress
34
CPN (UML)
31
MJF
24
TMDP
7
Sadhbhawana (Mahato)
3
NWPP
2
Janamorcha
2
Independent
2

25 Morang 4 Rama Nand Mandal Madhesi People's Rights Forum, Nepal M 9894 Elected
26 Morang 5 Upendra Yadav Madhesi People's Rights Forum, Nepal M 27508 Elected
27 Morang 6 Bhim Raj Chaudhari Rajbansi Madhesi People's Rights Forum, Nepal M 17086 Elected
28 Morang 7 Bijaya Kumar Gachchhadar Madhesi People's Rights Forum, Nepal M 18416 Elected

33 Sunsari 3 Bijaya Kumar Gachchhadar Madhesi People's Rights Forum, Nepal M 23769 Elected
34 Sunsari 4 Muga Lal Mahato Madhesi People's Rights Forum, Nepal M 19945 Elected
35 Sunsari 5 Upendra Yadav Madhesi People's Rights Forum, Nepal M 23939 Elected

45 Saptari 3 Mahesh Prasad Yadav Sadhvawana Party M 10302 Elected
46 Saptari 4 Renu Kumari Yadav Madhesi People's Rights Forum, Nepal F 12681 Elected

48 Saptari 6 Mrigendra Kumar Singh Yadav Madhesi People's Rights Forum, Nepal M 14028 Elected
49 Siraha 1 Laxman Mahato Madhesi People's Rights Forum, Nepal M 9814 Elected
50 Siraha 4 Shatrughan Prasad Singh Koiree Madhesi People's Rights Forum, Nepal M 11779 Elected
51 Siraha 6 Raj Kishwor Yadav Madhesi People's Rights Forum, Nepal M 15551 Elected

62 Dhanusha 4 Sanjay Kumar Shah Madhesi People's Rights Forum, Nepal M 13422 Elected

67 Mahottari 2 Hari Narayan Yadav Madhesi People's Rights Forum, Nepal M 7457 Elected
68 Mahottari 6 Sharad Singh Bhandari Madhesi People's Rights Forum, Nepal M 6862 Elected

71 Sarlahi 3 Sumitra Devi Raya Yadav Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party F 11096 Elected
72 Sarlahi 4 Rajendra Mahato Sadhvawana Party M 17073 Elected

108 Rautahat 5 Govinda Chaudhari Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party M 11732 Elected

110 Bara 1 Saroj Kumar Yadav Sadhvawana Party M 8182 Elected

112 Bara 3 Pramod Prasad Gupta Madhesi People's Rights Forum, Nepal M 16081 Elected
113 Bara 4 Jitendra Prasad Sonar Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party M 9624 Elected

116 Parsa 1 Karima Begam Madhesi People's Rights Forum, Nepal F 14614 Elected

152 Nawalparasi 5 Ram Bachhan Ahir(Yadhav) Madhesi People's Rights Forum, Nepal M 13641 Elected
153 Nawalparasi 6 Hridayesh Tripathi Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party M 10029 Elected

155 Rupandehi 2 Om Prakash Yadhav Madhesi People's Rights Forum, Nepal M 10612 Elected

159 Rupandehi 6 Omprakash Yadav Madhesi People's Rights Forum, Nepal M 12170 Elected
160 Rupandehi 7 Muhammad Okil Musalman Madhesi People's Rights Forum, Nepal M 8121 Elected

162 Kapilvastu 2 Dan Bahadur Kurmi Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party M 8434 Elected
163 Kapilvastu 3 Brijesh Kumar Gupta Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party M 18126 Elected
164 Kapilvastu 4 Ishwar Dayal Mishra Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party M 10394 Elected
165 Kapilvastu 5 Abhisek Pratap Shah Madhesi People's Rights Forum, Nepal M 15694 Elected