Madhav Nepal Would Be A Great Choice

• Is An All Party Government Possible, Desirable?
• Options For A New Coalition Government
• Prime Minister Upendra Yadav?
• Lesson For Maoists: Rule Of Law
• Prime Minister Jhala Nath Khanal

Madhav Nepal Needs To Make A Move (2007)
Prachanda, Madhav, Devendra (2006)
Madhav Nepal (2006)
Madhav Nepal Out In Open (2006)
Interim President: Madhav Nepal (2006)
Phone Talk With Madhav Nepal, Hridayesh Tripathy (2005)
Maoist, Moriarty, Madhav, Manmohan: Get Behind The 3 Point Program (2005)
Madhav Nepal, Commander Of The Movement (2005)
Email From Madhav Kumar Nepal (2005)

Image via Wikipedia

Madhav Nepal Would Be A Great Choice

In The News

Dahal dubs videotape scandal a ploy against peace process; claims Maoist military strength to be much higher NepalNews
'UML set to pick Nepal as coalition leader' CPN (UML) is set to choose Madhav Kumar Nepal as the leader of the next coalition that will form the government ...... "Madhav Kumar Nepal has the ability to bring together different parties. UML is going to pick him unanimously [as the leader of the next coalition]," said Bidhya Devi Bhandari, UML vice-chairperson. She added that two UML leaders - chairman Jhala Nath Khanal and K.P Sharma Oli - are eligible for the post of Prime Minister. ......... a government of national consensus would be formed under the UML's leadership. ....... Unified CPN (Maoist), is showing undemocratic behavior by obstructing the parliament.
Madheshi parties call for consensus govt A joint meeting of Madheshi Janadhikar Forum, Terai-Madhesh Loktantrik Party and Sadbhawana Party organised at Singha Durbar, Wednesday decided to stand by a government of national consensus that could address the needs of the people of Madhesh. ..... The parties will support a party which shows commitment towards fulfilling the agreement of February 28, 2008 with the Madheshi community, MJF vice chairman JP Gupta said. ...... The meeting was organised soon after MJF chairman Upendra Yadav returned form his foreign tour.
Envoys meet PM Dahal, Khanal PM Dahal expressed his commitment to peace process and national consensus, mentioning that he resigned from his post to protect civil supremacy.
PM Dahal holds fence-mending meeting with Khanal In his first political meeting after resignation as Prime Minister, Maoist chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal met CPN (UML) chairman Jhala Nath Khanal at the latter's residence in Chhauni Wednesday morning. ..... Khanal said formation of "national consensus government" and constitution-making process were discussed ..... "I found him somewhat agitated and at the same time he expressed his disappointment." ...... Dahal told reporters after the meeting that they agreed to continue the politics of cooperation and consensus not to let the peace process derail. ..... Khanal informed journalists quoting PM Dahal that obstruction in the House would continue until the President admits his mistake and revokes the decision against government action against the army chief. Khanal said that he informed the PM about threats issued by the Maoists in various districts including Ramechhap and Kailali.
Govt formation within deadline unlikely The humiliation of having to resign from the government still afresh in their minds, Maoist leaders and cadres have started taking vengeance against their NC and UML counterparts. ...... Maoists rank and file has been pressurising the party leadership to rather stay in opposition than erode their public image by not being able to implement their policies when in the government. ..... the party will not easily accept to lead the government again even if offered, let alone joining the government under other parties. ....... The NC has agreed to form new government under the leadership of UML. However, these two parties do not have enough seats in the parliament to get a majority. They will be able to form the government only if Madheshi Janadhikar Forum and a few fringe parties support them. ....... Having understood their importance well, the MJF chairman has already put forward conditions to the UML-NC alliance. ....... MJF has covertly expressed interest to lead the future coalition. “It’s a different matter if we get (the post of) Prime Minister, otherwise we don’t need to jeopardize our vote bank by the digressing from our ideological stance,” a close confidant of MJF chairman Yadav quoted the latter as saying. .......... MJF leaders have accused Congress and UML of not having a strong vision about solutions to problems faced by people in Madhesh. The ‘ideological stance’, MJF chairman is indicating is none other than its alliance with the Maoists which the MJF thinks has a better strategy to win the hearts of people in the Terai than NC and UML. ..... The NC and UML’s unofficial proposal to make Madhav Kumar Nepal, the new Prime Minister of Nepal is not likely to materialise simply because of inadequate support on their side. Given the circumstances, MJF chairman Upendra Yadav looks like the most probable candidate to lead the government. The strongest reason behind this is the latent support of the powerful players, Yadav has behind him. ...... speculation is that Indian establishment, which has undeclared but strong influences in the formation and dissolution of governments in Nepal, is also likely to support Yadav as the future Prime Minister
House session obstructed, postponed for Sunday
India stresses on consensus to end ongoing crisis in Nepal, denies hand in toppling Maoist-led govt

Yadav stresses for consensus among political parties Chairman of the Madhesi Janaadhikar Forum Upendra Yadav has called for consensus and cooperation among all political parties while forming the new government to give a way out of the current turmoil. Talking to media persons upon his arrival at the Tribhuvan International Airport, Yadav said his party is not in a position to claim the leadership of new government. Yadav said his party will make efforts to build consensus among the parties, adding that his party will support whoever can gather majority to form government. MJF has called its parliamentary party meeting after Yadav’s arrival. The party is also scheduled to hold talks with other Terai based parties – Terai Madhes Loktantrik Party and Sadbhawana Party to bring out a common voice on Terai issues.
President Yadav's fate to be similar to Gyanendra if he doesn't rectify his move: Bhattarai He also claimed that there is less possibility of the new government being formed anytime soon because the Maoists have already intensified their street protest and struggle in the parliament against the President's move.

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Is An All Party Government Possible, Desirable?

Is An All Party Government Possible, Desirable?

• Options For A New Coalition Government
• Prime Minister Upendra Yadav?
• Lesson For Maoists: Rule Of Law
• Prime Minister Jhala Nath Khanal

Worst Case Scenarios

• Renewed civil war.
• Failed state.
  
• Cambodia.
  

Bad Case Scenarios

• Political paralysis.
  
• Widespread YCL excesses.
• Appeasement of the Maoists' dictatorial tendencies.
  

Two Knotty Issues

• Security sector reform.
• Land reform.
  

Solution: Parliamentary Supremacy

• Attempt an all party government.
  
• Form an all party steering committee.
  
• Hold full fledged debates/discussions in the parliament on security sector reform and land reform.
  
• Pass a law to force all political parties to make their book keeping public.
• Let the parliament shape the idea of a new army for the country. A bill passed in the parliament would decide as to the size and shape of the future army. It might end up 30,000 strong, about 20,000 from the Nepal Army, about 4,000 from the Maoist Army, and 6,000 from elsewhere. There must be criteria - physical and otherwise - that all soldiers must meet, to be professionally determined.
• Form an all party Land Reform Commission. All property captured by the Maoists during the 10 years will go under the guardianship of that commission. It would be for a duly elected parliament next year to decide as to what to do with that property. If the Maoists want land reform, they get to shape that land reform bill to be passed by the next parliament.

Who Could Lead An All Party Government?

• Prachanda is an option.
  
• So would be someone else.

Who Would Lead The All Party Steering Committee?

• Madhav Nepal is an option.
  
• So would be someone else.

Appeasement: Not An Option

• They tried that with Hitler. Let him have a small country, he will leave the rest of Europe alone. Appeasement does not work. That appeasement lead to World War II.
  
• Appeasing Prachanda's and the Maoists' dictatorial tendencies is not an option.
• There can be no compromise on multi-party democracy.
• Security sector reform is an option: heck, it is desirable. Land reform is an option: heck, it is long overdue. Federalism is a must. The Maoists can have all that.
  
• What they can never hope to have is a one party communist republic. There we have to draw the line. The YCL does not get to engage in use of force. (Madman Prachanda, Hindenburg Girija, Youth Communist League: Prachanda's Brown Shirts)
  

Reality Check

• But we can not assume the Maoists want an all party government.
  
• If all the other parties come together and prove a majority in the parliament, they are the legitimate government. That is how it works. The Maoists don't then have the option to threaten the workers of the other parties in the districts. If they do, the state has to counter them.
• The non-Maoist parties can not engage in appeasement.
• All you need is a majority in the parliament to have a government.
  
• The Maoists have to show they can sit in the opposition also. They have work to do to show they are up for multi-party democracy and rule of law.

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Prime Minister Upendra Yadav?

• Lesson For Maoists: Rule Of Law
• Prime Minister Jhala Nath Khanal

There were two victors in the April 10, 2008 elections: the Maoists, and the MJF. And the MJF is the only political party in the country with a track record of having successfully countered the Maoists.

There is no compromising the rule of law. The Maoists do not get to enage in muscle power. They do not get to engage in a rein of terror.

In The News

Video shows Dahal admitting real strength of PLA not more than 8,000; sharing plans to control army and capture state NepalNews the video which the channel claimed was from January 2, 2008 when the Maoists were an important constituent of the Girija Prasad Koirala led interim government ....... "We were (PLA's strength) somewhere between 7,000 and 8,000. If we had reported the correct figure of the PLA, then it would then have been reduced to around 4,000."......... "But our party's leadership decided to report PLA strength as 35,000, and thanks to it the PLA's strength is now 20,000 at least," he said smilingly, evoking peels of laughter around him.........."So our strength has actually increased. You and I know the truth, but why should we tell it to others." ...... apart from the PLA, which he said is now already a "regular army", the party has also formed YCL comprising thousands of youths despite various difficulties and "who now add to our strength". ....... The Maoist chairman also revealed that a significant share of the money that will go to "our martyrs" in villages throughout the country and the PLA in cantonments will be used by the party to prepare for revolt and ultimately capture the state. ...... "You all know that if we have enough money in our hands we can prepare a good battle plan. So, the party needs a good amount of money for the revolt," he said...... though the party may appear to have again reached a compromise (with the state and political parties), "but if you look deeply then you will know how seriously the party is preparing for the ultimate revolt". ..... Claiming that PLA combatants are "politically aware", he said even a small number of their entry into NA is enough to establish complete Maoist control over the army.
Maoists warn NC, UML cadres to leave Ramechhap, gun fires kill one in Rolpa
22 parties meeting inconclusive Madhesi Janadhikar Forum, a key component for formation of new government, was absent from the meeting and is unlikely to give its decision until party chairman Upendra Yadav returns from his foreign visit. The party also has laid claimed for the post of prime minister.
Form new government by Saturday: President
SC issues show cause order to president INHURED International filed the case seeking cancellation of the president’s move
Maoists disrupt House proceedings the new government will not be formed until president corrects his action.
Police arrest civil society activists
UNSG saddened by Nepal’s political development
NDF meeting postponed
EU expresses concern over recent political developments
Maoists to launch agitation from House and street

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Lesson For Maoists: Rule Of Law

Image via Wikipedia

Prachanda's Procedural Flaw

The Maoist failure to oust Katuwal has not been a failure of the principle of civilian supremacy over the military.

The parliament can impeach the president, but not with one third of the vote, which is what the Maoists have. The parliament can impeach the army chief. The majority government had the option to get the parliament to pass a resolution by majority vote saying the civilian government wanted to oust the army chief. There was no effort made in that direction.

A majority government with unanimous voice could have got rid of Katuwal. But the Maoists did not have the support of any of the coalition partners. At that point the right thing to do for Prachanda was to withdraw his intent to oust Katuwal.

But even if the majority government had unanimously decided to oust Katuwal, the president, as the constitutional chief and the titular head of the army, would have had the option to send the decision back to the cabinet for reconsideration, then the cabinet would have had the option to resend it, and at that point the president would have had to pass it on to the army chief. But Prachanda not only did not seek support from his coalition partners, he did not feel the need to forward his decision letter to the president to be forwarded to the army chief. He bypassed the president. Calling him up on the phone to inform does not count.

Decision To Resign, A Good One

Prachanda decided to resign instead of possibly facing a vote of no confidence. That was a good one. His party has filed a case against the president in the Supreme Court. That shows a desire to appreciate the rule of law. But the right political move would have been to try and impeach the president. They must know they don't have the numbers. So they did not even try. And if you have already registered a case against the president with the Supreme Court, whey then plan on street protests? Let the law take its course.

Prachanda's Party Failed Prachanda

His party let him down. They put undue pressure on him. He could not resist the pressure from his party to go relentlessly after the army chief. That cost them power.

Katuwal Not The Impediment To Army Integration

Prachanda and the Maoists have falsely assumed that the army chief stands in the way of army integration. The two armies will be integrated after the six biggest parties in the parliament will agree on a formula for integration. And the other parties will not agree on the idea as long as the YCL keeps misbehaving. The YCL has the option to either disband, or become a purely political organization. They can't walk around like Hitler's Brown Shirts. Civilizing the YCL is the homework the Maoists need to do as a party if they want to make progress on the issue of army integration.

Parliamentary Supremacy

On thorny issues like land reform and army integration the best idea would be to let there be full fledged debates and discussions on the topics in the parliament. Party chiefs are too used to usurping the power of the parliament. Open parliamentary debates have to take the place of smoke filled room politics.

India?

India is not the reason all of his coalition partners deserted Prachanda. They deserted him because they kept telling him he does not have their support to oust the army chief, but he did not listen to them, so they deserted him.



Prime Minister Jhala Nath Khanal

In The News

Maoists to launch agitation from House and street NepalNews
President accepts PM's resignation
Prime Minister Dahal resigns slamming Prez's move
'All-party' meet on Tuesday; Khanal says UML ready to lead new govt
Govt terms prez’s move ‘unconstitutional’
President Yadav defends his move
Maoists to challenge President's move in court; declare protests in streets, parliament

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Prime Minister Jhala Nath Khanal

Image via Wikipedia

Jhala Nath Khanal - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

It is now time to form a new government that would include all parties except the Maoists. Jhala Nath Khanal would be the right person to lead that government.

This is not a Katuwal issue. This is an issue of the Maoists having lost the confidence of the parliament. The Maoist government no longer has majority support. The MJF has to join forces with the UML, and the Sadbhavana. The NC has to support the new government by joining it. The TMLP has to join the new government.

Rule of law is supreme. How to integrate the two armies? Go to rule of law. How to sack or not sack the army chief? Go to rule of law.

In The News

UML, Sadhawana decide to pull out of govt; UML ministers resign NepalNews
Bhattarai claims army firmly behind govt decision; NC ramps up support for no-confidence motion against govt
President unhappy with govt's sack order to Army chief, starts consultations
OHCHR urges parties to maintain restraint
Demonstrations for and against decision to sack army chief
Govt decides to sack CoAS Katawal; Khadka acting chief; Four coalition partners oppose decision
Katawal 'turns down' sack order

Maoists lose majority after Nepal army chief sacked guardian.co.uk

Nepali Sadbhavana Party decides to quit gov't Xinhua

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7,000 Martyrs: A Maoist Farce

Cabinet declares 7000 as martyrs NepalNews "The cabinet has declared people killed during the Maoist struggle as martyr of people's war, those killed in people's movement-II as martyrs of people's movement and people killed during the Madhesh movement as martyrs of Madhesh movement"

This is ridiculous. People killed in a civil war are not martyrs. Their deaths are tragic, but they are not martyrs. The Maoist violence lasting 10 years was stupidity. It was wrong. That violence can not be lumped with the three nonviolent revolutions of April 2006, January-February 2007, and February 2008. The April Revolution was not the Nepali people condoning the Maoists' stupid civil war. It was the Nepali people saying no to that violence.

This declaration also puts the peace process into a serious jeopardy. The Nepal Army is now going to want to know if their soldiers killed during the 10 years were also martyrs or what.

The only good news in this decision is that it does not come into effect unless the parliament passes it, and I urge the parliament to not pass it.

The people killed during the three nonviolent revolutions were martyrs. They can not be lumped with the Maoists killed over 10 years. To do so is to blatantly disrespect the martyrs of the three revolutions.

Not to say the whole exercise would be ridiculously expensive, something the country can not afford.

UML chairman raps govt over 'arbitrary decisions' NepalNews Jhala Nath Khanal Friday strongly criticised the Maoist- led government for making arbitrary appointments and transfers of officials by taking advantage of the UML general convention. ...... the political document endorsed by the party's eighth general convention last week which, among others things, call for protection of party cadres from the Maoists' "anarchic activities"
PM Dahal commits to completing revolution NepalNews writing a pro-people constitution is necessary for completing the political revolution in Nepal. .....He claimed his party has the moral responsibility to lead the world communist movement, not only for Nepal. "Communist movement in Russia and Vietnam failed because leaders did not understand the real spirit of revolution," Dahal said, adding Nepal will have a unique revolution to suit the climate of 21st century.

This guy needs to define the word revolution. Both Prachanda and Bhattarai talk of political plurality, and rule of law, but they also talk of revolution.

Govt is trying to put private sector in the soup: Entrepreneurs NepalNews five different industrial organisations including the FNCCI, Hotel Association, Confederation of Nepalese Industry and Overseas Export Association. ..... accused the government of trying to stifle wealth creation in the country by imposing unjustifiable tax against the entrepreneurs ..... blamed government of trying to further discourage businesspersons by imposing 5 percent tax for the private schools as well

Baburam wanting to expand the revenue base is not a bad idea. But one has to ask if he gets the market and entrepreneurship.

Koirala asks party activists to strike back if poked NepalNews Girija Prasad Koirala on Friday directed his party activists to retaliate against any violent activities of the Maoists .... "If they (the Maoists) continue with their violent activities then you have to also retaliate against it" ..... clearly hinting at the possibility of Maoist activists turning to violence in the upcoming Free Students' Union (FSU) election.

Seeds of anarchy are being sown.

TMLP strike affects life adversely in Terai districts NepalNews Traffic along the east-west highway and supporting highways have come to a halt and markets has remained largely closed from early morning on Friday. Busy market places of commercial towns like Janakpur and Birgunj wore a deserted look. Educational institutions are also closed. TMLP has called for a one-day strike in Terai districts as part of a series of protest programmes demanding the government implement the agreement reached with the erstwhile United Terai Loktantrik Morcha (UTLM) exactly one year ago. .....the victims of Koshi flood have continued obstructing traffic along the Laukahi-Bhatabari section of the east west highway for the eighth consecutive day.

"If there is another movement, we will be back on thestreets" Nepali Times It has been exactly one year since Prime Minister Koirala said in Hindi on the Baluwatar lawns: "Believe me. I will implement the eight-point agreement." Pushpa Kamal Dahal and Madhab Kumar Nepal nodded. Mahanta Thakur reciprocated, and spoke in Nepali. The agreement promised an autonomous Madhes province, inclusion and collective entry into the army. ...... There has not been inclusion proportionate to the population. And there is little change in the army's character." ..... The TMDP's idea is not to trigger off mass unrest but to keep up the pressure on the government, use the period to mobilise and build up an organisation and occupy the moral high ground by exposing the fecklessness of the other Madhesi parties in the coalition. ...... Breakaway Maoist Matrika Yadav is still in his planning stage, in touch with underground militants. ....... "The Madhes is lost. It is trapped between the MJF which is in government but increasingly unpopular on the ground, TMDP which is protesting but is internally weak and a state that can't protect its citizens."
The centre can't hold Armed groups are still active, fear is deep and as a journalist put it: "The state just has no strength left." ....... We have known that sections of the administration are complicit with the Tarai's criminal gangs and share the loot, but it seems to go a lot deeper than that. ...... Government officials actively encourage loot and extortion. A cop may actually tell a particular group which trader is a possible target and fix a share. An official at the land office may inform an armed militant about recent transactions and who would have liquid cash. A mid-level banker may pass on the details of which family has received money from a relative in the Gulf. ..... The key aim of the Maoists is to get as many armed groups in the party as possible. ...... no one here can quite figure out what the government is trying to do. Why are they legitimising goons even though the real militants are still out of the process? Why is it allowing this semi-anarchy to persist? Is the aim to foster a sense of disillusionment, discredit the Madhes movement, and then unleash a security operation? Is it to allow these groups to come out and make life difficult for the Madhesi parties, who are being squeezed from all sides? .... politicians are playing with fire and making life hell for the people of the eastern Tarai.

The Pahadi power structure is systematically punishing the Madhesi population in the Terai by intentionally going slack on law and order in the Terai. The punishment is for giving a big victory to the Madhesi parties on April 10, 2008. The Pahadi police that openly sided with the Pahadi rioters in Nepalgunj in December 2006 are now doing something similar by acting absent while on duty. They used to practice active suppression during the Panchayat. Now they are punishing the Madhesi population by going passive in the line of duty and, worse, actively colluding with criminal elements to make life hell for the Madhesi population. This attitude is a recipe for a disintegration of the country. Remember Bangladesh?

The Maoists need to be talking to Jwala, Goit and Matrika. Peace Minister Prabhakar has been waging the drama of holding peace talks with little known outfits that have members in the tens, not thousands.

Jwala, Goit and Matrika are all Maoists like Prabhakar and Prachanda. They should be able to speak each other's language and come to the negotiating table.

As long as the royalists of yesterday and the Maoists of today keep wanting to create a Pahadi army by merging two Pahadi armies, there will be no peace in the Terai. The idea has to be to create a Nepali Army in which the Madhesi participation is proportionate.