To Talk Or Not To Talk To Giri

I am for talking. What do we have to lose?

A few days back I criticized Girija Koirala for wanting to talk to the regime. (Koirala's Request To The Regime To Postpone Elections) Now I think I was wrong, Girija was right. We got to talk.

Tulsi Giri Interview
Tulsi Giri Is Beyond Redemption
Response To The Panchayati Ghost Tulsi Giri

This guy Tulsi Giri is quite a character. There is not one major world power he has not criticized. He criticized India for inviting the Bhutan king to its Republic Day, and that was way back in February. He has taken the US and UK to task. There is another doctor-politician I know of who is known for his bluntness, Governor Howard Dean. Do they teach these people something at medical school? I wonder.

Some of the things Giri has said are outlandish, like his threat of jail time to the politicians. We threaten him with jail time right back, and then we still talk. Giri is not exactly a democrat.

What do I read into his words? He came out claiming the 12 point agreement between the Maoists and the democrats does not bother him. Only a few days later, he sounds like he does care. He is worried. Girija provided Giri with a slight opening, and he took it with gusto. That shows Giri is worried about the agreement.

But I am against pushing his nose in the dust. You help your opponent save face if you intend to do business.

I disapprove of the king but I also try to understand him. If we were to give him the benefit of doubt, what do we see? He did not invent Article 127. He overstretched it, true. If a near takeover of the country by an armed rebel group is not an emergency situation, what is? I am not justifying him, I am just trying to put myself into his shoes. And until the country gets another constitution, the 1990 constitution is the law of the land. The king has disfigured that constitution beyond recognition and repair, but that is a whole different topic.

My point is this. Either the seven party alliance should seek an overthrow of the monarchy like in France and Russia, or it should negotiate its way to a constituent assembly. Those are the only options I see.

My preference is a constituent assembly. Even if the monarchy is to be overthrown, I want it to be done through the ballot box. That decision is for the Nepali people to make. But if the seven party alliance were to opt for the France, Russia option, I will fully support it. They are the ones on the ground, I am not. I follow their lead. (The King Is Intent On Visiting France And Russia)

But decisions have to be made. The seven party alliance needs to be banging heads more. Tulsi Giri is right in his criticism. Seven parties are talking seven different ways. Leaders within the same party - the Nepali Congress - are not talking with one voice. That might be freedom of speech, but that is not unity of purpose.

Considering I don't see the seven party alliance anywhere near the France, Russia option, I am assuming we are still set on the constituent assembly idea. As long as we get there, does it matter how we get there? I think not.

And that is why we should be as flexible as possible.

We should not abandon the constituent assembly. As soon as we do that, we lose the Maoists, and we are back to square one. Personally I am for a constituent assembly with or without the Maoists.

Our commitment has to be to a constituent assembly. And that commitment has to be strong. Only then will we be flexible on every other issue.

First, clean the house. Bang heads and clear up heads. Giri is right. What do we want? Do we want to go back to before October 2002? Do we want to revive the House? What?

I think the last mile marker the seven party alliance has is the 12 point agreement. (10 Point Agreement To Succeed 12 Point Agreement, Prachanda Statement) I am not surprised Giri rejects that outright. Bijukchhe was also offended he was not consulted before it got signed. Giri was not part of the deal making, so he does not recognize the end product.

You make peace with enemies, not with friends. Giri is an enemy, that is why we need to talk to him.

We win if he talks reasonable. We win if he talks unreasonable: we expose him. But talks, by definition, will involve give and take. We can not show up at his door with a finished copy of an agreement and expect him to come around to it.

What could Giri ask for?

First, he will ask for clarity. Fair enough. Then he will say House revival is not an option. Then he will say, come take part in the February 8 polls. We say, no thanks.

Then he might say, both the Maoists and the seven party alliance are for House revival as long as that House takes the country to a constituent assembly. That is true. Then he might say, how about this? Forget the House revival and forget municipal polls. Instead let's hold elections to a new House, and let all the parties take part. Like now. Within a month or two. And then let that House deal with the Maoists.

I think that would be a valid compromise. The Maoists will also have to agree to it, because it goes along with the 12 point agreement. That House will give birth to an all party government. That government will hold peace talks with the Maoists, and head on towards a constituent assembly.

Am I for this idea? No. I am for the formation of an all party interim government through political decision. But considering the seven parties will not let go the House revival idea, I think this would be a valid compromise. We end up with a House, but there is no House revival. The king is out of the picture. Both the legislative and the executive come back to the political parties. The parties might even amend the constitution to bring the army under the parliament before holding talks with the Maoists.

I am not really proposing a roadmap here. What I am saying is once you engage in dialogue, all sorts of options open up.

Political dialogue is how you make political progress. Endless mass meetings will not do what political dialogue will. So go talk.

10:43 PM Update: I just talked to Madhav Nepal. I ran this idea with him. He disagreed. He said to hold elections to a House would be to lose the Maoists. Besides elections will be costly. If elections are to be held anyways, why not elections for a constituent assembly? Valid point.

Nepal sounded excited about all the massive rallies his party has been holding all over the country. He gave a long list of towns where they have been and were going to be.

I opened up a private e-channel of communication with him yesterday. It is direct, it is cheap. It works even when I can not reach him over the phone. It is efficient. It will basically be a series of memos. In private you open up more.

In The News

Government can consider parties’ proposal: VC Giri NepalNews ..... the government could consider the demand of political parties to postpone the municipal polls if the political parties come with a positive attitude...... first and foremost, the parties should make their stance clear and only then the government may agree to postpone the municipal polls...... political parties must be clear in their motive whether they want dialogue to postpone the municipal polls or postponement of municipal polls for dialogue ...... Girija Prasad Koirala called on the government to postpone the municipal elections so as to create an environment conducive for dialogue with the parties....... “However, the government can sentence the political leaders to jail if they try to disrupt the municipal polls. We can term them fanatics and send them to jail if they start talking too much” ...... had ruled out any consensus with the agitating seven-party alliance on the basis of the 12-point understanding ....... “The Feb 1 royal proclamation will not be withdrawn and the dissolved parliament will not be revived.” ...... Giri also said that the top leaders’ statements are inconsistent.....
Government can consider parties’ proposal: VC Giri Nepali Times, Nepal .....
Political Parties Won't Come to Power Now: Dr Giri NewsLine Nepal Giri, said Wednesday that political parties would never come to power. ..... Addressing a joint mass meeting of Rastriya Prajatantra Party, Nepaal Sadbhabana Party and Janamukti Party at Birtamod, Jhapa ...... “First and foremost, the parties should make their stance clear and only then the government may agree to postpone the municipal polls.” ..... Claiming that nobody can provide even a single evidence that there is no democracy in Nepal ...... “NC president Koirala sometimes demands reinstatement of parliament, at other times says the situation must remain as that prior to October 4, 2002 and now he demands postponement of polls to hold dialogue with the King. What do we make of all this?’ “Also, other leaders who are supposed to be agitating jointly, such as Madhav Kumar Nepal, say there won’t be dialogue with the King at any cost and NC leader Ram Chandra Poudel issues statements saying there would be no agreement with the King. These political parties are inconsistent,” Dr Giri said.
Govt can postpone polls if parties come for talks: Giri Kantipur Online the parties, as the latter “lack unity and stability in their words as promised.” .... “We can consider Girijababu’s statement,” said Giri, adding, “If he really means what he says, first talks should be held and then only can thoughts turn to whether or not to cancel the elections.” ..... “Who has helped put together the mass-meet of the parties, who have reached the so-called the 12-point understanding with the terrorists? The government is seriously looking into it.” .....
12 Held for Waving Black Flags at Giri Himalayan Times, Nepal
MR Josse: Straight shooting by Dr Giri Scoop.co.nz (press release), New Zealand
Dr. Tulsi Giri, Nepal’s royal deputy, organized a news ... United We Blog, Nepal

Why The Maoists Should Not Go Back To Violence

The Maoists announced a three month long ceasefire, and then extended it by a month. That extension expires in a few short days. They have said they will not extend it this time around. What is in store? What could happen?

I sincerely hope they do not go back to their old ways. I hope they are not planning some kind of a large scale, surprise attack on one of the RNA installations. Because if they do that, we will be back to square one. All political progress made since the ceasefire announcement could go down the drain. The Maoist-Democrat alliance will come under a tremendous strain. The international community will want the seven party alliance to choose between them and the Maoists, and the Maoists are not going to be a choice. The regime will claim victory. They will happily go back to war. The bipolarization in the making will evaporate off.

Why would the Maoists want that?

The best option would have been if the king had reciprocated to their ceasefire. But the king did not. That shows the king is not at all interested in the idea of a constituent assembly. I don't agree with him on that one, but I can see why. A constituent assembly could turn the country into a republic. Even if the monarchy is retained, it will be truly a ceremonial one. Why would this self-professed activist king want any of those two options? Put yourself in his shoes.

Instead if the Maoists were to reciprocate the king's unreasonableness, they would be doing the king a huge favor. It would be unreasonable to go to war.

So I say to Prachanda and Baburam, don't do it. Don't go back to war. Instead do this: Isolating The Monarchy.

What options do the Maoists have?

One obvious option is to extend the ceasefire. They have done it for seven months in a row in the past. They could add a few more to these four months. They still get to keep their armed cadres in an "active defense" mode.

Another would be to let the ceasefire expire, but still keep the armed cadres in an "active defense" mode. Technically the ceasefire is over, but in practical terms not much has changed.

But the best moves the Maoists could make are not military at all.

The Maoists have increased their army size from three to seven battalions after the ceasefire announcement. Does this prove the royalists were right along, that the only reason the Maoists declared the ceasefire was to give themselves a breather? No. I think they waited for a week and then realized they might have to engage in yet another round of combat, so they prepared.

Prachanda has said this regime will fall before the Nepali new year. He is the first person in the Maoist-Democrat alliance to have come up with a deadline. I like that.

The Maoists have also warned the regime that if they were to engage in a military crackdown on the peaceful demonstrators in the capital, their army will march into the valley from both east and west, kind of like Fidel Castro marching into Havana. This is not unlike the diaspora warning the regime of global legal action should there be a military crackdown. (Project Nepal Democracy)

The Maoists have also announced programs of peaceful mobilization of the people. (Maoists Should Go Beyond Ceasefire To Peaceful Mobilization)

My recommendations to the Maoists are based on what they themselves have said.

1. Do not go back to violence.
   
2. Engage in a major propaganda war with your threat against any possible military crackdown. That will encourage the people to come out into the streets.
   
3. Engage in peaceful mobilizations of your cadres and the people as much as you can.
   
4. Launch a propaganda offensive against the RNA foot soldiers. Lenin did that to great effect. Infiltrate the army ranks with your propaganda. Let them see the current regime is not in their interests. This is much stealth work, not unlike planning a major military campaign. Channel your martial urges into this.
   
5. Isolate the king. Build on the work done so far. My proposal is in the diagram above.
   
6. Do not make any attempts to kill those who might decide to contest the February 8 polls. Instead visit as many homes as possible to urge people to stay back home on that day. If you kill candidates, you invite a fissure between yourself and the seven party alliance due to the global power arithmetic. The acts will be too spectacular to get ignored.
   
7. A day or week long nationwide strike to disrupt the February 8 polls is okay. Whatever floats your boat.
   
8. Revise your 12 point agreement. The seven parties should drop the House revival idea. The Maoists should agree to integrate the two armies before the constituent assembly elections as long as the interim prime minister is the Commander In Chief of the army. (10 Point Agreement To Succeed 12 Point Agreement)

In The News

OHCHR receives assurance from Maoist leadership NepalNews
NHRC probe team visits Nagarkot
Four judges appointed at Supreme Court
RPP in Crisis
Their Majesties to visit eastern region from January 1
UML General Secy seeks UN intervention for peace
Nepal yet to pay over USD 26 mn to India for military supplies Outlook (subscription), India
Nepal army starts 'biggest' Maoist hunt NewKerala.com
84 Killed in Nepal Even during Maoist Truce, NHRC Trying to Broker ... NewsLine Nepal, Nepal
3 killed in Rolpa clashKantipur Online
Maoist commander killed: RNA PeaceJournalism.com
King to Take 3-Week-Long Tour to Eastern Nepal NewsLine Nepal, Nepal
UN intervention necessary in Nepal: Leaders Webindia123, India
Seven parties set to disrupt municipal polls Kathmandu Post, Nepal
NHRC to meet king to talk ceasefire Kathmandu Post, Nepal
Govt considering parties’ proposal Kathmandu Post, Nepal
Political leaders dare govt on Thapa's threats Kathmandu Post, Nepal