Friday, October 21, 2005

INSEC Report: One Month Of Ceasefire


The Maoists are going to have to make up their minds. If they declared their ceasefire for the illegitimate Gyanendra Shahi government, they need to act like it. On the other hand, if they did it so as to forge a stronger alliance with the democrats, they need to act like it too.

Their best bet is to work towards a solid eight party alliance.

I think it was a mistake the government did not reciprocate the ceasefire. But then 2/1 was also a mistake. This government had made endless mistakes. I am not surprised it made the mistake of not responding to the ceasefire. I would have been surprised if it had done the right thing.

It makes no sense for the Maoist republicans to hedge their bet on the goodwill of this regime.

The Maoists have already said they are for a democratic republic, and that they want to get there through a constituent assembly. Such a democratic republic will not have room for any party to have a standing army. The state will have an army and that is it.

Before the country goes through a constituent assembly, the Maoists will have to have disarmed. And they know that as well as you and I do.

So in agreeing to a democratic republic, and a constituent assembly, they have in effect said, yes, we will disarm.

The best way would have been for this royal regime to invite UN mediation. But I don't see that happening.

The Maoists insisting on UN mediation is like Girija insisting on House revival. Neither is about to happen. Because both strategies depend on the king's willingness to go for it, and he has made it absolutely clear he will not go for either.

So Girija and the Maoists need to face the reality.

The Maoists have to make a constituent assembly and a democratic republic possible by thinking of other ways of disarming.

I think the Maoists should take a serious look at my idea of a unilateral disarmament: Art Of War, Art Of Peace.

If UN mediation not be forthcoming, that idea might be the fastest way to a democratic republic.
Mohi magne dhungro lukaune garna bhayena.

The Maoists don't have the option to play games. Geopolitics don't allow for games.

I don't think the Maoists are trying to. But I do think there are hardliners among the Maoists who are hard to convince. And there might be plain inefficiency, a case of not being able to do exactly what they intend. And there is the relentless state offensive. So they don't have as many options. They are not in an easy situation themselves.

But the Maoists have been mum for a while. There have not been statements from them in a little while.

I hope they will take the best option they have: a unilateral disarmament that leads to a strong eight party alliance for a democratic republic, so there is a total bi-polarization in the country. That bi-polarization will hasten the demise of this regime like nothing else might.

I don't believe the Maoists declared their ceasefire intending to play games. They waited for a week. They became convinced the royal regime was not going to reciprocate. So they thought, if the regime is not interested in peace, and the seven parties are not going to launch a movement to get rid of the regime, then what options do they have except to prepare for another round of fighting to tire out the regime?

The flaw in that thinking is to assume the seven parties are not going to dislodge the regime. The seven parties are about to wage a decisive movement. This regime has only a few months left.

But if the Maoists wage another round of civil war, they mess things up for the very movement that will dislodge the regime. Why will the Maoists do such a thing? Why will they do anything that might prolong the life of this illegitimate regime?

So they should preferably think in terms of a unilateral disarmament. And if they can not do that, they have to extend the ceasefire. If they do extend the ceasefire, the movement has more breathing room. The movement dislodges the regime, and a democratic interim government is formed. That governemnt will take the UN mediation route, if necessary. If that's what the Maoists want. But then that also means there will be no eight party alliance.

A solid eight party alliance is the best, quickest way to a democratic republic. A seven party alliance can also do it as long the Maoists do not wage another round of civil war.


..... statement of Prachanda declaring ceasefire, which came unexpectedly
..... The Maoists also did not respect their own commitment.
..... been involved in killing of civilians, crossfire, abduction, targeting of schools, beatings and incidents of loots.
..... A total of 4 civilians have been killed by the Maoists whereas they have abducted 8057 persons, most of them being students and teachers.
..... targeted schools in at least 9 districts including Jhapa, Argakhanchi, Morang, Jumla etc
..... Maoists also were found of beating civilians, students and even human rights defenders
..... even looted a sum of rupees 6,00,000 which was to be distributed among community schools in Taplejung district.
..... looted the house of one person in Ramechhap
..... threatened different industries, businessmen, government employees, schools and NGOs to pay tax, stop functioning in Jhapa, Kavre, Morang, Kaski, Dailekh and Surkhet districts.
..... continuing their activity of detaining people in their 'labor camp'.
..... at least 90 Maoists have reportedly surrendered to the government
..... the government has increased its activity of searching villages, arresting citizens and disappearing them. The security persons are even seen of carrying out extra judicial killings.
..... endangered the durability of the unilateral ceasefire of the Maoists.
..... security persons have killed 29 people during the first month of ceasefire mostly in acquisition of being Maoists. They have also arrested at least 106 persons from 25 districts in allegation of being Maoists. Even civilians have been injured in the landmine explosion planted by the RNA. They even beat civilians for no reason in Ilam and Surkhet districts while carrying out search operations.

.... Maoists’ unilateral ceasefire, which brought rays of hope for sustainable peace amongst the Nepalese people, seems in the verge of breakdown following the activities of the government. It is a very high time for the government to response it by reciprocating the ceasefire so as to create conducive environment for peaceful resolution of the problem.
...... the Maoists should create favorable environment where the movement of political parties could be taken to the villages, which has not been seen in the first month of the unilateral ceasefire.
...... government has stimulated the violent activities in the name of anti-terrorist operations.


[PDF] ONE MONTH OF CEASEFIRE File Format: PDF/Adobe Acrobat - View as HTML
ONE MONTH OF CEASEFIRE. An Assessment of Human Rights Situation during the ...
Human Rights organizations including INSEC and HRERLC, ...
www.inseconline.org/download/Ceasefire%20.pdf - Similar pages
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Sage Radachowsky Interviews Anil Jha


Audio Clip Mr. Anil Kumar Jha, a joint general secretary of Nepal Sadbhawana Party (Anandi Devi), sat down for an interview on 18 October 2005 while he was in Boston on another program.

In the interview, Anil speaks about his party’s struggle to represent Madeshi issues, in terms of proportional representation, cultural and linguistic rights.

He speaks about the armed conflict and dynamics between the 7 agitating parties and the CPN(M). In this regard, he touches on what the role of international community could be, to support a nascent 7 Parties/CPN(M) alliance that may yield peace with dividends of social justice if enacted correctly.

He touches on the split in the NSP that occurred in 2003. The leader of the other faction, Mandal, is now an acting minister in the King’s government. He predicts that the Anandi Devi faction, which is representing the will of the people, will survive as the Nepal Sadbhawana Party while the Mandal faction will subside.

Listen to the interview by saving the file from the link below:
MP3 file, 3.59MB

Produced by Sage Radachowsky for INSN.


Madhesis are exploited. That has been true since Nepal got established as a country. The country is there, but the state is not there. The Madhesis pay more than 70% of the revenues, but get less than 20% back. Less than 5% of the civil servants are Madhesi, there are none in the army. Maybe there are a few doctors, engineers, barbers, dhobis in the army who are Madhesi. Same with the police. Only one Madhesi became DIG.

Also on citizenship certificates. Nepal has 24 million people. More than 4 million people are seeking citizenship certificates. Most of them are Madhesi. Those are government figures. A UML government came up with those numbers. The UML is a party dominated by hills people. Even they came with those numbers.

Another issue is to do with parliamentary constituencies. In Manang 10,000 people get one seat. In Rautahat half a million people have only four seats. All constituencies should be based on equal population.

We are also demanding a federal form of government. The central government can not do everything. We are for five state governments and one central government. The centre can take defense, foreign relations. Development work should be by the states.

We also talk about our culture. There is no such charter in the world anywhere. In the Nepali parliament only one race is allowed. The MPs are not police or military. So why is there a unform for MPs? In other countries, the MPs decide what they want to wear.

There is Mt Everest and there is Rajbiraj. In the same zone. When it is 40 degrees celsius, Everest might have minus 10 or minus 20. How can you control both places? That is why we are talking of federal government. A tribal of Namche wears bakkhu, a Madhesi wears dhoti.

As you know Nepal is multi-lingual, multi-cultural. We are also talking about language. Nepali is the common language in the hills. More than 60-70% of the Madhesi people can not speak Nepali. Our lingua franca is Hindi. So we want Hindi to be the second national language. When hills people talk to the locals in Rautahat they do so in Hindi.

Our all these demands have been momentarily sidelined. For now we are focused on democracy. We are one of the seven agitating parties.

The Maoists are fighting with the establishment. Their slogans are positive. That is why they became popular. They became popular among the tribals, Dalits, women, the Madhesis. Those groups never got justice during 12 years of democracy.

The international community does not listen to those with no muscle. We have no bargaining capacity. The Maoists through guns and ammunition attracted all the world community.

All things in the country are derailed. Democracy is derailed, development work is derailed. We are very aware about that.

Peaceful movement is not noticed. The big powers only listen the sound of barrels. Otherwise we Sadbhavana Party people have been talking peacefully for 15 years. We waged hunger strikes. But noone noticed. Not the international community. But they notice the Maoists.

This is a very fertile time. This is a negotiable time. All the major parties, even the pro-palace party RPP is not supporting the king. The RJP is not either. All the parties are against the king. All seven parties, who had 95% of the parliament, are all for a constituent assembly. This is a fertile time for the Maoists also. This time will never come in the future. If the Maoists miss this opportunity, they will not get this ever again. They should come talk to us, the seven parties.

They have stopped their People's War by our request. We hope we will settle something.

In 2003, our party split. Badri Mandal is a Minister, he was Deputy Prime Minister. He wants to be Minister at any cost. He has no principles. He has card given to him by Gajendra Babu. He is cashing that card. But once there is democracy, his party will collapse. We will be the only Sadbhavana left. If now there is regime of king, but when the time of public will come, only those who are with the people will survive. We are with the people.

Any talk between the Maoists and the seven parties, the obstacle is what and how we can implement any negotiated agreement. This is a major obstacle. Neither they nor us are in power. That is why. We can only make strategies in terms of joint agitations. Something will be negotiated. We should convince the international community. That is necessary. If Maoists by heart and soul and by brain, if they would like to, they can do so. The general people are with us. The people are not with the rulers.

The international community is confused by the Maoists. Their goal is totalitarian. But they are also wanting to convince the international community that that is not the case. That they will obey rule of law, multi-party, market, press freedom. By their activities they can convince the international community. They have captured parts of the country. If they will practice these things in those parts, then they will earn legitimacy. By thier acts. By doing.

If someone can organize a Maoist party, they must know the international reality. They must know geopolitics. They must be thinking about their future.

Politics has two sides of coin. One is change society. Another is to rule over the country. Prachanda is more than 50 years old. If he wants to be Prime Minister. I am in politics for the last 16 years. I have never seen Prachanda. So I think he is thinking about this. I think he will come into the open soon. But for that the right environment has to be created.

Some are seven party opinion, some are my party's opinion, some are my personal opinion.

My English is not so good. But I wanted to express myself. You can edit if there are any mistakes.

Sage: Your English is 10 times better than my Nepali.

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Phone Talk With Hridayesh Tripathy
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The Army Rank And File Need To Be For The People And Democracy


Nepal's army has had a long, illustrious history. A lot of Nepali armed men have made a name for themselves all over the world over decades. But now that army stands at a historic juncture.

Armies are to fight external enemies. In rare cases they also get mobilized to confront internal armed groups. But peaceful demonstrators for democracy are out of bounds.

This is my appeal to all thinking officers in the Nepal army top to bottom.

The democracy movement is about to be launched in full force. The democratic government, once it gets into power, will punish all acts of physical assault on the peaceful demonstrators. Noone who might give orders for such physical assaults will go scot free this time.

This movement is not against the state structure. This is not a movement against the police, the army, the bureaucracy. This is a movement for democracy. This is a movement to create a democratic Nepal where the police, the army and the bureaucracy all work for the people, answer to the people. This is about transferring the ownership of the state to the people. This is not a movement to dismantle the state.

An army within a democratic Nepal will get better treated than it has ever been before. A democratic Nepal will be more prosperous, more proud. It will be more vibrant. It will be a happier country. The army will feel more at home in a democratic Nepal.

The army within a democratic Nepal will be a professional army. The promotion and perks structure will get vastly more meritocratic. There will be many more options for career advancements for its many officers. There will be many more opportunities for domestic pride and international peacekeeping.

A professional army in a democratic Nepal will be of unprecedented pride to all its members.

That army could become one of the symbols of national unity.

There will be peace in a democratic Nepal. The insurgency will be over. The army will no longer lose its members to meaningless violence.

The army, any army, ultimately is a keeper of peace, not a wager of war.

The army of a democratic Nepal will be more respected by the UN. The armed men and women of the Nepal army will be ambassadors of Nepal working for peace in the far flung corners of the planet.

That bright promise of a future requires that the rank and file and officers at all levels of the army be willing to appreciate the historic juncture the country is in. This movement for democracy is to be a once in a lifetime experience. This is to be decisive. This will not have to waged ever again.

The rank and file of the army, officers at all levels should be willing to defy orders as a last resort, if that is what it will take to make sure the villains of the current regime do not think they have the option to militarily crush the democracy movement.

All the army has to do is to stay out of the way. That is all.

And in return it will get treated like a professional army by the subsequent democratic government. It will get a respect it has never had before.

This is my appeal.

I urge all Nepalis all over the world who are supporting the movement in all ways they can to use all possible personal contacts they have inside the army to pass on this message.
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