Monday, July 02, 2012

The Federalist Alliance Should Be An Electoral Alliance

Republica: UCPN (Maoist), UDMF to form federalist alliance
they will soon start talks with the parties that favor identity-based federalism ..... "Once the political parties arrive at consensus on the new constitution, they should hold talks for promulgating new constitution," said Mahato, adding, "If political parties forged consensus on reviving the Constituent Assembly (CA) and the Supreme Court (SC) gave nod for this, then the CA could be revived." ...... if political parties could not arrive at consensus on the issue of reviving the CA, they should forge consensus on removing the legal and constitutional difficulties in order to hold new CA elections. ..... "If the political parties agreed on the CA election, the election date of November 22 could be changed," Mahato added.
The UCPN (M) and the Madhesi parties contesting elections together makes a lot of sense. There is little electoral overlap between the two. The UCPN (M) is strong where the Madhesi parties are not, and vice versa. The onus will be on the Madhesi parties to forge an electoral alliance among themselves. And they should. In doing so they will be able to pretty much wipe the NC out of the Terai. All Madhesi parties stand to grow bigger.

I don't think there is any option to revive the CA. And that is a Supreme Court thing. The only option is to go back to the people for a fresh mandate.

If the Janajatis and the Madhesis of the UML and the NC split away to form a separate party, as they are saying they will, or if they join other existing parties that will be the right answer to the bad role the UML and the NC leaders played when the constituent assembly was still around.

Baidya's Maoist party is a protest move, not a political move. I don't see them doing electorally well. It will be like when Bamdev tried by splitting the UML. The mother party suffered a little, but the break away party did not do at all well.

The political reality is that the CA will not be revived, the NC and the UML will not join the Baburam government, and hence an all party government will not be formed, and that the current government is the one that will hold elections to a new constituent assembly. In that new assembly the NC and the UML will be half as small as they were in the last assembly, if that. The Maoists, the Madhesi parties and the new Janajati party together will have the two thirds strength needed to give the country genuine federalism.

A pre poll electoral alliance of the Federalist Alliance will ensure this coalition will continue in power after the elections as well.

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