Friday, April 28, 2006

Undercurrents Of A Counter-Revolution






This is a curious assemblage of people rallying against the idea of a constituent assembly. That assembly is what this revolution has been about. That assembly is what will bring peace and democracy. I don't know what this crowd is thinking.

In The News

First HoR session: PM Koirala proposes for constituent assembly NepalNews
Oli to lead CPN-UML in the new government
Nepali people’s verdict acceptable to India: Yechuri
Change is in the air: Maoist leaders address public meeting in Kathmandu

Maoist leaders at Khulla Manch Kantipur Publications
First meet of reinstated HoR concludes, Koirala's proposal to hold CA elections registered
Constituent assembly excellent avenue: US
Senior bureaucrats for Karki's ouster
ँसंविधानसभा पहिलो एजेन्डा’
अमेरिका संविधानसभाप्रति आशावादी
खबरदारी सभा
माओवादी अभियान सहरमा
माओवादी नेता सार्वजनिक
संविधान सभाको मार्गचित्रबारे अन्तर्त्रिया
आज सिंहदरबार घेराउ
सात दलका एजेन्डा मान्न निर्देशन
मुख्य सचिव नहटाए काम ठप्प’
युद्धविराममा शान्तिपूर्ण आन्दोलन'
राज्यले पनि युद्धविराम गर्नुपर्छ’
जनमोर्चाद्वारा खबरदारी सभा
प्रधानमन्त्री कोइरालाको जिम्मेवारी
घाइतेको कलमबाट
संविधानसभाको अभ्यास
अब आठ दलको मोर्चा
अन्तरिम शासन विधान जारी गर

Nepal Strife Has Little Impact on Villages ABC News
Nepal House extends hands to Maoists Daily News & Analysis, India
Parliament in Nepal Convenes After 4 Year Break Zaman Online, Turkey
Mao, Nasser & Nepal Monsters and Critics.com, UK
Norwegian minister to visit Nepal to push talks Moneycontrol.com, India
Nepal parliament weighing constitution rewrite after first meeting JURIST

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Maoist Posturing


On April 25th, a "Letter to the Editor" appeared in the leading Nepali language Kantipur newspaper from Baburam Bhattarai, one of the leaders of the CPN(M). The letter sets out a clear understanding of the revolutionary moment, and warns the parliamentary politicians that were they to attempt a new arrangement with the King they would be swept aside.
The king came out saying he is for taking the country ahead "according to the road map of the agitating Seven Party Alliance." (18 Days Of April Revolution: Victory) After victory, the seven party alliance has time and again expressed its commitment to that same roadmap. The roadmap leads to a constituent assembly. And so this saber rattling on the part of the Maoists is uncalled for.

One can understand that the Maoists might want to try and drive a hard bargain in what they expect to be an integration of the two armies, but you don't go about doing that by trying to sabotage the very process that might make such an integration possible.

The Maoists need to engage in trust building, not in posturing. Their posturing is not helping the cause of constituent assembly.

The Nepali Congress might have talked of a constituent assembly half a century ago. Heck, that party even picked up arms back then. But it is the Maoists who have taken the lead on the idea of a constituent assembly this past decade. Parties like the Sadbhavana might claim they have been asking for a constituent assembly for a longer period of time, but it is the Maoists who brought the issue to the center of the country's politics. I give them credit for that. The seven party alliance came around to the idea of a constituent assembly only much later.

But now is not the time to bicker on such finesse.

The April Revolution was a superb experiment in non-violence. Not even the seven party alliance saw it coming. The original April 6-9 program grew into a tsunami of people across the country and surprised both the SPA and the Maoists. Both have rushed to take credit. The credit goes to the people.

The Maoists need to stop trying to pressure the seven party alliance to head for a constituent assembly when that is precisely what the seven parties are trying to do, on their own. The seven parties don't need convincing, and they are very much on schedule. The alliance is on track.

The worst part of this Maoist posturing and saber rattling is that the worst fears about the Maoists start to come alive. Are we going to see a new round of civil war with the state army on the side of the seven parties? Will the seven parties end up seeking military aid from India, America and Europe should that happen? Those questions arise. So the Maoists need to stop pushing and start behaving.

I am not being naive. We have to maitain vigilance. There might be members and cliques of the old, discredited regime that might make attempts to spoil the party, even if unsuccessfully. And we have to watch out for that. But you don't do that by unnecessarily hammering the seven party alliance. You are beating the wrong drum when you are beating up on the seven party alliance at this point in time.

So Baburam, Prachanda, chill. Take it easy. The roadmap to the constituent assembly is very much on track. Focus your energies on the peace talks that are next. Organize rallies and mass meetings. Prepare for the next steps. Prepare for the constituent assembly. Stop badgering the seven party alliance.
Baburam Bhattarai: "The degree of active participation of the common people, the nature of that participation, the level of their motivation can only be compared with that of major revolutions in history."
The First Major Revolution Of The 21st Century Happened In Nepal

The Revolution Is Very Much On
Reciprocate The Maoist Ceasefire Immediately
Army Under Parliament, Now
Declare Constituent Assembly On First Day Of Parliament
Maoist Reaction To Democratic Victory: Not Right

In The News

Interview of Li Onesto on CNN
NPR: Exploring the Complex Politics of Nepal
US Senate Resolution On Nepal INSN
NYT: Editorial Samrat Upadhyay INSN
US can remove red corner notice INSN
The Americans are leaving, State Department stays on INSN
Saga of compromise and struggle continues INSN
Baburam: Parliament by king’s mercy Kantipur

PM's swearing-in ceremony delayed NepalNews
The first session of the parliament commencing today
Yechuri arriving in Kathmandu today
RPP offers help to resolve key problems
Senior bureaucrats demand action against chief secy.
Leaders vow not to repeat past mistakes; say constituent assembly will be the first agenda of HoR
Koirala taken ill

The Revolution in Nepal Rediff, India
Nepal: Parliament to meet and usher in crucial period of change ... ReliefWeb (press release)
Nepal Parliament set to reopen NDTV.com, India
Yechuri in Nepal as Koirala forms Govt. CNN-IBN, India
People issue notice to palace Calcutta Telegraph
Over 300 activists released in Nepal Chennai Online
Nepal PM-designate too sick for swearing-in
Reuters AlertNet, UK
Nepal's PM too ill for ceremony Daily Telegraph
Nepal PM-designate too ill for swearing-in Independent Online
Yechury basks in Nepal glory
Calcutta Telegraph, India
COMMENT: Nepal’s eye-opening political ordeal — Tanvir Ahmad ...
Daily Times, Pakistan
Read the Nepal quake right
Indian Express, India

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Thursday, April 27, 2006

Madhav Nepal




1

December 27, 2005.

Madhavji.

This is me establishing a private channel of communication with you. The webpages in this folder are protected from the search engines, and hence are private.

You know much more about Nepali politics than I do. And I am not trying to crown anybody. Yahan New York City basee basee. Ra tapain lai thaha nai chha I have a family relationship with the Sadbhavana. I am a Sadbhavana person. Although I do have a healthy respect for the UML. But it is my commitment to the ideal of democracy and the difficult situation that Nepal is in that draws me to you.

Yo bigat dui mahina ma UML le dekhayeko agrasarata sarhai nai sarahaniya chha.

Huna ta tapain le baddapan dekhaunu bhako chha. UML will not lay the alliance hostage on the PM issue bhannu bha chha. But I think the times for niceties are passe.

I think you have to mentally prepare yourself to be the interim Prime Minister. It is a choice between you and GPK, but he is disqualified. (1) Your party is much larger than his. (2) You and your party practice internal democracy much better than him. There is no Nepal family thing going on in the UML. (3) In preferring to go straight to the interim government idea, you do realize the pitfalls of reviving the House. (4) You and your party have offered a greater clarity. (5) Your rallies have been drawing the larger crowds. (6) Koirala's health is failing.

But the biggest reason is that the job of the interim Prime Minister is going to be very hard. This is not going to be like for Kisunji. Your job will be much tougher. GPK simply can not do it. You must mentally prepare. You can not come forward until the time is ripe. But in your mind you should have no doubts. It is you. It can not be GPK.

You will be the interim Prime Minister. And likely your party will also win a majority in the parliament after a new constitution. So you will also be the first PM post-democracy, post-elections. It is important to be clear about this. Because you will be the person taming the army.

The roadmap I suggest is of an interim government and an interim constitution that makes the PM the Commander In Chief of the army. Then, through UN and major powers mediation, you would partially integrate the Maoist army into the state army. So there is only one army when the country goes through elections for a constituent assembly.

Then as duly elected PM and C In C, you would downsize the integrated army and bring it down in size to 30,000. And also reorganize the army. A lot of the people at the top will likely get fired. But you perhaps do not want to do all that as interim PM. As interim PM, you just want to make the army get used to the idea that a janata ko chhora is C In C. Visit a lot of the barracks. Meet a lot of foot soldiers. Attend many of the army ceremonies. Regularly hold meetings with the army top brass and be seen giving them instructions. Basically showing people you really are in command.

I don't believe GPK could do all this. I respect his decades' long contribution to democracy. But the future can not be held hostage to that past.

Dealing with the king is not going to be easy. The guy still has a few cards he can play.

Then there is the constituent assembly itself. That is a lot of work. GPK would not have the skill or the stamina.

So think of the country. And mentally decide now that you are the interim PM in waiting.

I will stay in touch.

On to victory.


2

January 9, 2006.

Madhavji.

Your party has offered clarity with two words: democratic republic. My focusing on your individual name is the same thing. It is about clarity. The more clarity we can offer, less talk there will be of some kind of a vacuum.

Why you? Because it is between you and GPK. But it has to be you because you lead the largest party, and you are the more qualified. If Hridayesh Tripathy were leading the largest party, it would have been him. It is a simple democratic choice, a simple mathematical calculation on my part.

But the bigger reason is to make sure all possible worst case scenarios are avoided, and there is this one person who puts a lot of thought into it.

What could be some of the worst case scenarios?

  1. The king could impose martial law. It would hurt him further, but he could go for it if he feels desperate enough.
  2. The king could get ousted, and the army could stage a coup if the ouster is chaotic. Pyar Jung could become the Nepali Musharraf.
  3. The king could get ousted, the army could get disbanded, and the Maoists could change their mind and go back to their goal of a communist republic, to be achieved immediately. Nepal could end up a one party state of the Maoists.
I don't see any of these three happening. But we do have to watch out. And there has to be this one person who is going to be the interim prime minister as well as the first president of Nepal who will make sure these three scenarios do not unfold.

Girija Babu has a huge stature, but then so did Ganesh Man Singh. This is not about disrespect. This is about what will be best for the country.

It is not just about mainstreaming the Maoists, it is also about mainstreaming the RNA. And neither can really be trusted. We don't trust them. We trust the roadmap that we create. We trust them both one step at a time.

I would think the Maoists do not get to join the interim government before the peace talks are successfully concluded. And the country does not go through a constituent assembly before the two armies are integrated. The army will be in your command, not that of the UN. The army top brass will accept you, but not the UN. That is my reading of the situation.

You become Commander In Chief as interim PM, but you only make changes at the top levels of the army as a duly elected President. Give them some time to get used to the idea. Being UML General Secretary, interim PM, Commander In Chief, and President will be four different things, although all related.

But those are down the line. The first task is to dismantle this regime, and I think you and your seven party colleagues are on schedule. We are honored to be supporting you from this end.

On to victory. The horizon is crimson.

Interim President: Madhav Nepal
Phone Talk With Madhav Nepal, Hridayesh Tripathy
Maoist, Moriarty, Madhav, Manmohan: Get Behind The 3 Point Program
Madhav Nepal, Commander Of The Movement
Email From Madhav Kumar Nepal

Sushil Pyakurel
Sushil Pyakurel In Brussels

Kiran Nepal
Kiran Nepal, Dinesh Wagle
Dinesh Wagle, Kiran Nepal In Town

Bharat Mohan Adhikari Is In Town