Why The Maoists Should Not Go Back To Violence

The Maoists announced a three month long ceasefire, and then extended it by a month. That extension expires in a few short days. They have said they will not extend it this time around. What is in store? What could happen?

I sincerely hope they do not go back to their old ways. I hope they are not planning some kind of a large scale, surprise attack on one of the RNA installations. Because if they do that, we will be back to square one. All political progress made since the ceasefire announcement could go down the drain. The Maoist-Democrat alliance will come under a tremendous strain. The international community will want the seven party alliance to choose between them and the Maoists, and the Maoists are not going to be a choice. The regime will claim victory. They will happily go back to war. The bipolarization in the making will evaporate off.

Why would the Maoists want that?

The best option would have been if the king had reciprocated to their ceasefire. But the king did not. That shows the king is not at all interested in the idea of a constituent assembly. I don't agree with him on that one, but I can see why. A constituent assembly could turn the country into a republic. Even if the monarchy is retained, it will be truly a ceremonial one. Why would this self-professed activist king want any of those two options? Put yourself in his shoes.

Instead if the Maoists were to reciprocate the king's unreasonableness, they would be doing the king a huge favor. It would be unreasonable to go to war.

So I say to Prachanda and Baburam, don't do it. Don't go back to war. Instead do this: Isolating The Monarchy.

What options do the Maoists have?

One obvious option is to extend the ceasefire. They have done it for seven months in a row in the past. They could add a few more to these four months. They still get to keep their armed cadres in an "active defense" mode.

Another would be to let the ceasefire expire, but still keep the armed cadres in an "active defense" mode. Technically the ceasefire is over, but in practical terms not much has changed.

But the best moves the Maoists could make are not military at all.

The Maoists have increased their army size from three to seven battalions after the ceasefire announcement. Does this prove the royalists were right along, that the only reason the Maoists declared the ceasefire was to give themselves a breather? No. I think they waited for a week and then realized they might have to engage in yet another round of combat, so they prepared.

Prachanda has said this regime will fall before the Nepali new year. He is the first person in the Maoist-Democrat alliance to have come up with a deadline. I like that.

The Maoists have also warned the regime that if they were to engage in a military crackdown on the peaceful demonstrators in the capital, their army will march into the valley from both east and west, kind of like Fidel Castro marching into Havana. This is not unlike the diaspora warning the regime of global legal action should there be a military crackdown. (Project Nepal Democracy)

The Maoists have also announced programs of peaceful mobilization of the people. (Maoists Should Go Beyond Ceasefire To Peaceful Mobilization)

My recommendations to the Maoists are based on what they themselves have said.

1. Do not go back to violence.
   
2. Engage in a major propaganda war with your threat against any possible military crackdown. That will encourage the people to come out into the streets.
   
3. Engage in peaceful mobilizations of your cadres and the people as much as you can.
   
4. Launch a propaganda offensive against the RNA foot soldiers. Lenin did that to great effect. Infiltrate the army ranks with your propaganda. Let them see the current regime is not in their interests. This is much stealth work, not unlike planning a major military campaign. Channel your martial urges into this.
   
5. Isolate the king. Build on the work done so far. My proposal is in the diagram above.
   
6. Do not make any attempts to kill those who might decide to contest the February 8 polls. Instead visit as many homes as possible to urge people to stay back home on that day. If you kill candidates, you invite a fissure between yourself and the seven party alliance due to the global power arithmetic. The acts will be too spectacular to get ignored.
   
7. A day or week long nationwide strike to disrupt the February 8 polls is okay. Whatever floats your boat.
   
8. Revise your 12 point agreement. The seven parties should drop the House revival idea. The Maoists should agree to integrate the two armies before the constituent assembly elections as long as the interim prime minister is the Commander In Chief of the army. (10 Point Agreement To Succeed 12 Point Agreement)

In The News

OHCHR receives assurance from Maoist leadership NepalNews
NHRC probe team visits Nagarkot
Four judges appointed at Supreme Court
RPP in Crisis
Their Majesties to visit eastern region from January 1
UML General Secy seeks UN intervention for peace
Nepal yet to pay over USD 26 mn to India for military supplies Outlook (subscription), India
Nepal army starts 'biggest' Maoist hunt NewKerala.com
84 Killed in Nepal Even during Maoist Truce, NHRC Trying to Broker ... NewsLine Nepal, Nepal
3 killed in Rolpa clashKantipur Online
Maoist commander killed: RNA PeaceJournalism.com
King to Take 3-Week-Long Tour to Eastern Nepal NewsLine Nepal, Nepal
UN intervention necessary in Nepal: Leaders Webindia123, India
Seven parties set to disrupt municipal polls Kathmandu Post, Nepal
NHRC to meet king to talk ceasefire Kathmandu Post, Nepal
Govt considering parties’ proposal Kathmandu Post, Nepal
Political leaders dare govt on Thapa's threats Kathmandu Post, Nepal

Koirala's Request To The Regime To Postpone Elections

What did Girija Koirala mean by that? I am bewildered.

It can be understood to have been a peace and reconciliation overture, soudly rebuffed by a government minister. It is unrealistic to think this regime is interested in any such thing.

But then what do you mean by postponing elections? If it were to be held on March 8 instead of February 8, would you participate? I hope that is not what Girija meant.

February 8 will make bipolarization possible. And we have to move to that end. Since the regime will not take it back, we have to cash it to our best interests. A sound failure on February 8 on their behalf could end up the fatal blow to the regime that it deserves.

The parties perhaps do not have the resources to conduct a continuous movement as yet. And hence their sole focus for now to disrupt the February 8 polls has to be seen as a sound strategy.

The Past Three Weeks

These past three weeks I have talked to many individuals, in the US and in Nepal, some of which are Bimalendra Nidhi, Dinesh Tripathi, Amik Sherchan, Shambhu Thapa, and Sudha Sharma. Tripathi is in Baltimore and we stay in touch. He is the point person at this end for the legal action project. Nidhi has been busy preparing for his party's general convention in early January. Amik Sherchan is a firebrand, quick to lose his temper, energetic, passionate. Shambhu Thapa is promising. He and the Nepal Bar Association are the other end of the legal action project.

Mirror Site

I set up another mirror site for the five projects: Project Nepal Democracy. It is largely informational.

There have been many authors to the ideas collected at the site. And it is not like this document launched all things listed. Several of the projects were already being worked upon, some by groups who did not know of each other, and still do not interact, because they do not need to.

Take one example, the ezine Loktantra. It has been named in the document, but it has been the work of some folks in Delhi and they have been putting it out for months now. Loktantra got launched months before the diaspora in the US started talking in terms of these various projects.

My point being there is no central authority. As long as the work gets done, it does not really matter how, and by who.

But the information site is a pretty good picture of all the work that is being done by the diaspora.

Each project has several mini projects.

I personally think small groups of 3-4 people tackling many mini projects is the best way to move ahead, the most efficient way.

Clandestine Work

I have been for being open. But that is just me.

There are many donors who do not wish to disclose their identities. There are some projects where one donor does not know of another. Book keeping is to be kept only among the group because that is how the donors wish it. That is also one valid model.

I think each project, and each mini project is going to end up with its own little subculture. There is not going to be one standard way.

ANA Convention

I have been to only one of those so far, the one in DC in 2002. And I expect to attend the one in NYC during the summer of 2006. Hopefully the movement in Nepal will have succeeded by then, and we will be in a festive mood.

To me going to an ANA Convention is not that different from going clubbing. You buy the ticket, you go in, have fun, come out, and be gone. You don't really care to know who owns the club, who the manager is, and so on. You just want the water, you don't much care about the piping. Actually there were loud complaints after Dallas last year that the tickets are too pricey. And there is no open book keeping. I think that is a problem. The ANA needs to display the details at its site.

Madhesis are conspicuous by their absence. Instead you see throngs of Pahadis/Bahuns.

After Dallas last year Ratan Jha called me in exasperation: "ANTA has ended up with more Pahadi than Madhesi members!" People like Kiran Sitoula, Sanjaya Parajuli and Pramod Aryal became Life Members, looks like.

Nepal Democracy Forum

The official reason given to kick me out of the forum has been that I went public with this letter by Jeet Joshee: NAC Goes Proactive. The heck with Jeet Joshee.

That is just so lame. So NAC was going to send a quiet letter to Jimmy Carter and then expect him to go off on a Nepal tour? Was that the idea? The use of that letter is not that Jimmy Carter might respond to it, he will not, that is just the political reality, but that the NAC wrote it and sent it, and the letter can have a major propaganda value for the democracy movement. But if you are not going to take it public, why did you write it in the first place?

On Carter's map, NAC is a no name organization, no offense.

How ridiculous is that? I personally do not know Jeet Joshee. I had never heard of him until recently. But if he does not realize the propaganda value of the letter he wrote, I doubt his political acumen.

I think my ouster is more a got-you-on-a-technicality mindset of a handful of self-important people whose primary contribution to the movement is to send each other links to Kantipur articles.

Mero Sansar, Blogger Nepal

Umesh Shrestha and Krishna Prasad Dhungana, the two Kathmandu based pioneer bloggers have been doing amazing work. I am so impressed with the progress they have made.

They are very close to turning their blogs into self supporting businesses. That has been the unreported story. I can not disclose all the details, but it has been so exciting working with them.

These dudes are so happening.

Political Consciousness And Literacy

My recent interactions with my fellow Madhesis have led me to feel you could have been born a Madhesi, but the Madhesi political consciousness is like acquiring literacy. It is a conscious effort, there is work, effort involved.

Understanding the concept of free speech for many Pahadis/Bahuns is the same way. The literacy has not been achieved yet.

Madhesi, Desi

On the American scene, it is about the Desi identity. That is the brown identity.

I am a Desi.

Madhesi.

Mero Sansar Video Clips