Friday, May 27, 2005

Rumor Has It The King Is About To Make A Major Move


"Yo hallai halla ko desh ho." Bhupi Sherchan.

Rumor has it the king is about to make a major move on par with 2/1. It can not be in the direction of more autocracy, since he has consistently gone in the direction of democracy since the end of April. So my guess would be it would be good news. But I can't tell exactly what.
He could go ahead and declare the parliament revived and basically agree to the idea that a Constituent Assembly is the only political meeting point for the three political forces in the country.

I still wonder, how exactly will the parliament be revived? Will he use Article 127? And if he will use Article 127, will the parliament stand to be dissolved by him at any moment thereafter? Or what? And if a parliament revived using Article 127 is okay, why is an all-party government formed by the same article not okay?

Could the king go for an interim government like his elder brother did in 1990 in response to the movement then? One can only wonder. I can think of a few options the king has, but there is no telling what exactly he will do. But my guess is whatever it is, it will be a change for the better.

I personally think the political parties should be able to offer an iron clad guarantee for the continuation of the monarchy to get full democracy in return. That could be a meeting point.

Personally I think the proposal I made to the king on May 3 is the best of all options.
It preserves the monarchy, it goes about nine steps ahead of every political party in the country in terms of offering the goods to the people, it totally steals the political and social thunder of the Maoists, something no gun can do, and leaves them the option to become a peaceful party or become irrelevant, just like that, evaporate off, it makes corruption near impossible, it puts Nepal on the political cutting edge. I can totally imagine American progressives pointing their fingers in Nepal's direction, green with envy, and asking out aloud as to why they can not have something as wonderful also in America. I can imagine the CPI and the CPI (M) totally coming around to the concept of total, transparent democracy in India and launching a non-BJP, non-Congress Third Front, immediately. I can imagine the Chinese saying they continue to denouce the western democracies, but that they actually like the Nepali version. The king of Nepal becomes the Samrat of Asia. Alexander and Napoleon used physical force. But conquest today is done with ideas, over the Internet. Plus, we no longer live in an era of emperors conquering physical territory with brute force. We live in an era where the competition is to see as to who can design the best political and social infrastructures so as to best serve the individual. It is about the individual. This is science we are talking about.

This would be a good use of Article 127. The only good use.

Actually I don't think you have to use anything in the 1990 constitution to form an interim government. You just go ahead and form it.

In The News

    • Reconciliation In Coming Weeks Kantipur ..... US Ambassador to Nepal, James F Moriarty ..... "I hope in the coming weeks we will see an attempt [by the king] to reach out to the political parties, and, if there is such an attempt, I hope the parties will respond." ..... "Whatever change comes, it should be something that the palace and the political parties should be comfortable with." ..... "If you are going to have a reconciliation in this country, both the sides - the palace and the parties - will have to be ready for some give and take." ..... "When Cristina Rocca was here she welcomed the fact that the parties were working together, but we need to see both the sides move forward from there and we hope that the parties' common agenda becomes a tool for negotiating with the government." ...... the king has publicly stated that he believed that restoration of the House would be unconstitutional. "So, it might be difficult to negotiate around that issue, but if that is possible, we welcome it." ...... "Last week was horrible - there were police beating up the Maoist victims, people were getting rearrested in the courts and the government took a series of dumb steps." .... there has been some progress, especially in terms of the release of detainees and the restoration of civil rights. "But there has to be a progress in reaching out to the political parties, and that is the key." ...... Feb 1, said Moriarty, was a setback to the international community's perspective on Nepal because many started to think if the main problem in Nepal was the insurgency or the king. ...... "we have been carefully saying that the goal here is to try and get as many Maoists back into the mainstream as soon as possible." ...... First, that there should be unity among the legitimate political forces in the country. Second, the whole international community should tell the Maoists that they are not going to take over power in Nepal and that the former was not going to allow that to happen...... Finally, the Maoists have to be convinced that they are not going to win militarily and that they have to come back and negotiate seriously....... "I believe that if the palace and the parties don't work together there is a good chance of the Maoists ending up taking over power. Whether that is through military means, through negotiations or terrorism I don't know. But frankly, if everybody screws up, the Maoists are going to win." ..... "While there are two issues tied to it: First, domestic political developments…we want to see clearly the civil liberties coming back and an end to arbitrary use of power and we also want to see the reconciliation process." He, however quickly added, "That sounds cut and dried but it's not because of the other consideration, which is the military balance…which makes us nervous." ...... our twin goals (the path back to democracy and ensuring that the Maoist don't takeover) ..... "If we get very nervous about the Maoist progress, then that will be a factor we will consider." ..... "Are we nervous? Yes. But it is hard to say if we are nervous enough." ..... That's a long way from saying that we look at Nepal through Indian eyes. I have a tremendous ego and I wouldn't be here if I thought that was the case and we would close down our embassy...... if he believed in different versions of democracy, he said the ability of people to elect and change their government, free press, and independent judiciary were all pretty standard...... "We are not believers in different sorts of democracy for different sorts of people because that has always been used to disguise paternalism and authoritarianism"

    • Iran And Nepal: Both Need Freedom Of All Kinds United We Blog Iran is a country being ruled by Islamic fundamentalists. Nepal is a country being ruled by royalist fundamentalists....... (Iran has arrested over 20 bloggers over the last year.) Iranian bloggers who have been released have reported being the victims of torture......

    • Republicans Inside The Royal Palace Prateek Pradhan, Kantipur February 1 putsch ..catapulted undeserving people to the helm of power who are now prepared to go to any length to hang on to the power ..... these people are invoking extremist moves to force the parties to join a republican force ...... Tricky Giri, Khelkhud Shah, Chameleon Pandey and the like won't mind no matter how serious the crisis facing the country or the institution of monarchy is ...... The government has become totally dependent on the army now. Such a harmful trend does not only raise the ambition of the armed forces, but it also seriously hampers the effectiveness of the government...... they are working on nepalization of democracy...... they must be aware that any attempt to undermine people's rights to choose the government and rule the country through their representatives would further resent the constitutional forces and the people. And if so, the King will have no option but to rule the country by tightening the iron fists, whence they will be able to further savor the power....... The attempt is to widen the chasm between the pro-constitutional-monarchy political parties and the pro-multiparty-democracy King...... the ball is in the King's court to recognize and get rid of the pro-republic force occupying stronghold inside the Royal Palace.

    • Republicans Inside The Royal Palace United We Blog KGBs of Nepal ...Tricky Giri, Khelkud Shaha, and Chameleon Pandey ..... royalists with slave mindset are inciting the king to take such measures that will not ultimately harm the Nepali monarchy badly but also put it in a grave risk of extinction....... King Gyanendra’s Boys ...... these very KGBs are the ‘republicans’ in the royal palace that are trying to ruin the future of monarchy....... it is yet to be proven whether their moves are intentional or inadvertent, it is clear that they are helping the pro-republican force ...... It’s not new in Nepal for people to be more royalists than the king himself. The coterie of ultra royalists is trying to keep king in confusion and rule on their own in the name of king........ a “bunker regime" ...... KGBs or parasites or freeloaders ....... “they know that, once they are out of power, they will have to run away from the country. And some of them have already done so in the past.” ...... “Their aspirations will be fulfilled only if they continue to remain in power even in a fluid situation,” Pradhan says, “It simply does not cross their mind that the fluidity will eventually hit hard the longevity of the institution of monarchy.” ........ These parasites “won’t mind no matter how serious the crisis facing the country or the institution of monarchy is. The only intention of these leaders is to hang on to the power by hook or crook.” And they have proved this argument of Pradhan by doing all nonsense things over the last four months. “In a bid to strangle whatever remaining confidence the King and the political parties have in each other,” Pradhan writes, “these people are invoking extremist moves to force the parties to join a republican force rather than reconcile on constitutional monarchy and multiparty democracy.” ..........the people inside the Royal Palace are doing their best to weaken the ideology supporting pro-constitutional monarchy within the political parties ......... The longer they keep Narahari Acharya, Lila Mani Pokharel and the like in detention, the stronger the republican voice will grow. The more they play cat-and-mouse game with the student leaders such as Gagan Thapa and Rajendra Rai, the louder their voice will be heard within and outside the political party. The harsher they become with human rights activists such as Krishna Pahadi, the greater will be the local and global influence. They know that unless they do not send the security forces inside the court to manhandle lawyers and journalists, most of these people would not think of the republic set up. ........... the involvement of army in the everyday chores of the country is like turning a tiger into a man-eater by letting them to taste human blood. ......... The choices are simple: safe future for monarchy by being constitutional or the republic system in Nepal. As Pradhan says, the ball is in the king’s court.

    • Visiting A Detention Center In Nepal United We Blog Bode, Bhaktapur ..... I was actually reluctantly accompanying my reporter friend and co-blogger Saroj to meet his detained brother Sudeep Sharma.The Agriculture Development Bank’s training center was transformed into an autocratic hell, thanks to Feb 1 Move...... Visibly sick and jaded Urmila told that she will be taken to Bir Hospital for medical check up tomorrow. Bal Krishna, in haste, dropped the Fanta bottle brought for her sister..... Rajendra Pande was a bit furious with the authority. He retorted: “Can’t a politician meet his relatives? Is it his crime to have such relatives?” He said he was there to visit his grandson Sudeep Silwal. An apologetic Assistant Sub Inspector sent for his grandson...... As the political crowd left the venue, a police grilled me asking why I was there.

    • Gagan Thapa Release, What About Others? United We Blog Gagan Thapa (waiving hand) vowed to fight for democracy and constituent assembly..... Yesterday, Supreme Court issued an order that said: “In fact, detainee Gagan Thapa hasn’t been released from the illegal detention as per the court order. That is against the fundamental objective of the constitution and the laws of the country.” ..... home minister Dan Bahadur Shai commented: “The court order didn’t specifically barred police from re-arresting Thapa. So police did no wrong re-arresting him.” ..... A free Gagan Thapa vowed to continue fighting for democracy in Nepal. “Now, our target is constituent assembly,” he said. “The movement should go ahead for that goal. We should do no compromise with the king. We should not listen to his sweet and phony talks about peace and democracy.” ...... arresting pro-democracy political activists will only weaken the regime.

    • Samrat Of Everybody's Heart United We Blog So, I also decided to visit the place to juxtapose the Samrat of my imagination with the Samrat of flesh and blood..... I at last saw Samrat of my heart ..... His characters are so life-like and speak the language of common people of Kathmandu...... Samrat got a Whiting Award in 2001 for his debut book Arresting God In Kathmandu, and his second book Guru of Love was an enormous success. His fans are curiously waiting for his third book that is getting published in a few months.
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Thursday, May 26, 2005

Baburam Bhattarai Press Statement


Dr. Bhattarai has been in the news lately. And he fired a rebuttal of his own. I always look forward to reading his statements. They are tightly written. And they offer a rare glimpse into the inner workings of the Maoist organization.


Some observations I make:

  1. He misreads the "movement" as the one for a democratic republic. The parties are agitating only for democracy. He and his party are two months behind schedule. But they continue to have the option to campaign for a democratic republic within the framework of a constituent assembly.
  2. He has written to the Maoist central committee asking for an investigation into the Prachanda "voice" in audio tape format that basically calls Baburam an "Indian agent." Prachanda has not denied his words but he has said new developments have made him look at his comrade differently. But that "flash" is revealing. Looks to me like Prachanda has something in common with the Monarchists after all. The India bhoot is the favorite weapon of the false nationalists in Nepal. My personal concern is the same weapon is also used to incite ethnic hatred against the Madhesis. Maybe Prachanda is just another Bahun after all.
  3. He also takes a swipe at Prachanda's past attacks on his "intellect." I am not about to argue on that point with a man who has a Ph.D. I don't myself.
  4. He says he is "hurt" Prachanda questioned his nationalism.
  5. Differences in opinion and political differences should be talked out politically and within the basic rules of decorum, Baburam insists. Instead Prachanda chose to hit beneath the belt. He resorted to administrative measures.
  6. Prachada, meaning "The Fierce One," perhaps thinks of Stalin, "Man Of Steel," as his role model. Baburam quotes Lenin often and perhaps thinks of him as his role model. Like Trotsky said of Stalin, "He is just a bureaucrat." Lenin spent much of his adult life in libraries. If he had socialized more, perhaps his autocratic instincts could have been blunted.
  7. When Baburam says Democratic Republic, he really means it. Like in India. India is a Democratic Republic. His line is that that is what the Maoists should gun for for now. It is unreal to think in terms of a communist republic given Nepal's current socio-economic conditions. That is Baburam's line. He claims that is also the party's line.
  8. He comes hard on Prachanda for transforming "healthy debates and discussions" into issues of personal enmity. Looks like the two have found some new common ground. They are comrades again. But Baburam is not about to compromise on his basic premise of democracy and freedom of expression within the Maoist central committee.
  9. I personally do not want to see the Maoists formally splitting. Prachanda on his own might become less manageable. Baburam is the best watchdog one can ask for to keep Prachanda's dictatorial instincts in check.
  10. And Prachanda himself is an unknown quantity. I don't want to paint him one way or the other. The fact that he too is for a constituent assembly is important, and shows he is capable of reason.
  11. Baburam sees the common minimum program as (1) democratic republic, and (2) constituent assembly.
  12. He says it is true he has been working to reach out to national forces and forces beyond based on that CMP.
  13. That is good news. That provides some common ground between the seven parties and the Maoists. The seven parties are also for a constituent assembly now.
  14. He is critical of Prachanda's use of administrative measures and an outright use of force.
  15. I don't think he wants to get even with Prachanda, as in also try and send him into "protective custody," but he is uncompromising on the issue of democracy and freedom of expression within the Maoist central committee.
  16. That is good news for the democrats. The democrats can hope to do business with Baburam.
  17. I don't mean to make light of the loss of the Nepali Congress that has lost 1,000 of its workers to the insurgency. But peace making requires painful compromises. It is that or it is losing more workers to the insurgency.
In The News
  • Delhi Bombshell, Baburam In Delhi Kantipur
  • Most Political Detainees To Be Released Tomorrow Alliance For Peace ..... all remaining political detainees across the country to be released tomorrow, with the exception of Janamorcha party members.
  • Nepal Becoming No-Go Zone Embassy .....100,000 people have been displaced since the rebellion...... So far, aid workers in Nepal aren’t being driven out of the country by attacks, like their peers in other conflict zones such as Iraq and Afghanistan
  • Tightened Screw On Press Freedom Reporters Without Borders ..... a new edict adopted by the council of ministers on 18 May ..... a licensing clause banning cross media ownership so that a private company can no longer own a TV station, radio and a newspaper ..... edict now awaits ratification from King Gyanendra
  • Karat denies meeting Nepal Maoists Financial Express, India
  • India and Nepal Maoists deny mutual ties Islamic Republic News Agency Bhattarai earlier had been accused by the Maoist hardliners as being soft on New Delhi after he insisted on fighting the king first before taking on India in the wake of February 1 palace coup..... Bhattarai added, "To call someone a foreign agent immediately after differences over ideological matters is the height of political bankruptcy."
  • India wakes up: we condemn Maoist violence, they have to lay down ... Indian Express
  • Nepal Frees 20 Political Detainees ABC News Thursday's prisoner releases followed an emergency security meeting
  • Nepal police detain 50 protesters Reuters AlertNet, UK .... authorities have freed 700 people so far.
  • Nepal: Time for India to Undo Wrongs Navhind Times It is difficult to understand why India has welcomed the lifting of the emergency as a “first step” towards democracy when people are still being arrested, press censorship is in place and the executive powers of the King remain undiluted..... Has New Delhi forgotten that the entire autocratic panchayat system of Gyanendra’s father, King Mahendra, with its arbitrary arrests and disappearances, functioned without the declaration of any emergency? ..... Monarchists in Nepal have time and again equated Nepali nationalism with anti-Indianism. It was this class which let loose urban terror in Kathmandu reacting to the infamous Hrithik Roshan episode. A patently false rumour was given currency to target Indian establishments and whip up anti-India hysteria. Although instability in Nepal has always been blamed on political parties and external forces (read India), history shows that monarchy and its institutions have been at the centre of all political controversies and upheavals...... While the double U-turn of the Indian foreign policy establishment on arms supply was bad enough, now there is loose talk from the Indian Army about a ‘brother army’ needing ammunition. ...... October 4, 2002, when he dissolved the Parliament. That decision was fundamentally flawed ..... the King’s agenda has to be understood first. His top priority is to delegitimise the political parties ..... help the political parties understand that unless they offer a political and economic solution to the Maoists, the restoration of democracy will fail..... India already has channels of communication open with the political parties. It must also start talking to the Maoists......
  • Senior diplomats bound for Nepal BBC News, UK ..... Indian foreign ministry official Ranjit Rae and Zhou Gang, a senior official of the Chinese foreign ministry, are both arriving in Kathmandu simultaneously.
  • Indian, Chinese diplomats to hold talks with Nepal authorities:- Webindia123, India
  • Nepal tightens media curbsmjournalism.co.za, South Africa ..... prohibiting any news item that causes "hatred or disrespect" against King Gyanendra and his family members ..... provisions to fine up to Rs 1,00,000 and sentence jail term of up to one year ...... government's intention to "totally control free press and to convert it into government's propaganda machinery."
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The Lake Freezes At 32 Degrees Fahrenheit Like Magic

Mausi Bhi Taiyar, Basanti Bhi Taiyar

Looks to me like both the king and the Maoists might be coming around to the agenda of the seven political parties: (1) revive parliament, (2) all-party government, (3) unconditional peace talks with the Maoists, and (4) constituent assembly.

Gaon walon, mausi bhi taiyar hai, Basanti bhi taiyar hai, marna cancel!

For the first time since 2/1 I see peace on the horizon.

Homework time. The parties need to talk to the king. The king should not wait for the street protests to gather momentum. These seven parties are over 95% of the weight of the to-be revived parliament. That is people power. People already voted. They do not have to come out into the streets.

Message To G2: The Lake Freezes At 32 Degrees Fahrenheit Like Magic

G2: Girija, Gyanendra.

Just when things are looking a little better, one has to stay cautious. The ground situation has not changed all that much. And things can always go downhill.

Others are welcome to make their own intelligent guesses, but if I had to guess, I would say the lake is right now at 36 degrees. If the king comes forth and agrees to reviving the parliament, the temperature goes up to 38. If Girija does not play foul and sticks to the common minimum program, the temperature goes up to 40. If the Maoists play ball and get together for a constituent assembly by totally disarming, and peace returns for good, the lake is at 42 degrees. That is comfy.

But 42 is still a country with abject poverty, where a majority are hungry every single day. The water is still very cold.

On the other hand, if the king frustrates the parties and the street agitators, the temperature goes down to 35. If the king further clamps down, say if there are hints of military rule, the temperature goes down to 34. If the Maoists step up their attacks, the temperature goes down to 33.

The thing about 33 is, for the onlookers, it is like water is still moving, you still see ripples and waves. The yes men around the king will keep insisting they still see ripples and waves. And so many end up thinking the temperature is further away from 32 than it actually is. Batista did not see it coming in Cuba.

I have been following the RNA military moves since 2/1. They are fundamentally deficient. They misunderstand the very nature of the war, even the military aspect of it. Most of the army top brass are physically unfit. These are not people who rose up from the ranks. The inherent nepotism that has kept the Shahas, Ranas and Thapas at the helm has not allowed for a whole lot of meritocracy. The universal human desire for money and power coupled with the monopoly the top generals sought and got has led to a whole lot of groupthink.

It would be erroneous to compare RNA's 100,000 men to the Maoists' 12,000 or however many there are. If the RNA were to engage in a traditional war with the Maoists for a little over a month, they end up an army with guns but no bullets. And the Maoists do not have to butcher 100,000 men to capture Singha Durbar. They are not fighting a traditional war.

If the temperature were to get down to 33, they might engineer a few "events." Bin Laden calls them "spectacular," Prachanda calls them "catastrophe." The impact is primarily psychological.

At 32, the lake freezes zipzap. At that point, if Nepal is lucky, Prachanda is more like Fidel Castro. If Nepal is unlucky, the guy is the Nepali Pol Pot.

Look at how Castro marched into Havana. There was not much bloodshed at all.

That is what we are looking at.

Congressia Madhesias

The Nepali Congress has got to be my least favorite political party in all of Nepal. They messed up the 1990s. They let down the high hopes generated by the 1990 movement. They became the new status quo. They thwarted genuine aspirations of the Madhesis and the Janajatis. They turned democracy into a circus. They institutionalized corruption. They hounded smaller parties.

Their track record leaves much to be asked for.

On the other hand, if the Madhesis inside the Congress were to get more assertive, that could herald a fundamental social transformation of the party.

Look at someone like Ram Baran Yadav. He is a medical doctor. That does not necessarily make him the smartest kid on the block. But that does mean he has read a few books. He is a Yadav. That works for great electoral arithmetic in the Terai. Someone like him should be aspiring for the leadership position within the party.

Bimalendra Nidhi might have taken the jump. He has not played second fiddle within the Nepali Congress (D).

Raju Ban Gaya Gentleman

When an all-party government is formed, I see Rajendra Mahto as one of the ministers. Tripathy and Mahto from the Sadbhavana.

Ever since 2/1 Mahto has been generous to me with his time over the phone. I have interviewed him. I have asked him for phone numbers of other leaders I needed to talk to. I have sought his opinions. I have sought clarifications from him on statements made by the parties. But that is not the reason.

Mahto is a major emerging political talent on the national scene. His district Sarlahi is one of the Sadbhavana bastions on par with Nawalparasi and Morang. He is very easy to talk to, as in "sweet," as one of his constituents once described him to me a long time ago. But he is also resolute, and capable of taking firm stands when need be.

He has been a boon to the democratic movement.
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